Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 142118
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
318 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

North winds on the plains are starting to show signs of
diminishing, especially near the northern border. This is about as
planned. Speeds will probably continue to drop slowly until
sunset, then decouple pretty well this evening. There is some weak
convection over the mountains, but any shower activity will be
isolated with some decrease during the night, and then a little
increase in moisture again toward morning.

For Sunday, there will be some mid and high level cloudiness over
the mountains that will spread onto the northern part of the
plains. Still enough low level moisture and slight instability for
a few light mountain showers. Temperatures should be about 10
degrees warmer, with a lot of melting where there is remaining
snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Sunday night and Monday, the airmass will be dry and stable. A
ridge of high pressure will be over the region with a west-
southwesterly flow aloft. The ridge axis will be over eastern
Colorado by the afternoon with the flow become southwesterly. At
the surface a lee side surface trough will develop over eastern
CO in the afternoon. It will be much warmer on Monday with
temperatures warming back into the 70s. The fire danger will be
elevated along the Palmer Divide, with the driest conditions over
southern Lincoln county. The fire danger will be elevated in the
afternoon when southerly winds in the 15-25 mph range develop.
Marginal so no highlights at this time. On Tuesday and Tuesday
night, the flow aloft will increase from the southwest with the
next trough axis brushes across the state. The cold front will
pass across the northeast plains around 18z, with west to
northwest winds becoming widespread. Spatial cross-sections show
limited moisture in the mountains, with the best chance for snow
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong qg ascent will
pass across southern WY in the afternoon, following by moderate to
strong subsidence. At this time, snow amounts in the 2 to 5 inch
range possible in the high country. It will be 10-15 degrees
cooler on Tuesday across the plains, but stronger winds. Another
day of elevated fire danger mainly due to the strong winds and dry
fuels where areas did not get any snow. For the middle of the
week, a ridge of high pressure will move across the state allowing
for dry and stable conditions. Near seasonal temperatures at that
time. The models suggest the wind will increase across the
northeast plains Thursday afternoon. The next system to contend
with is expected to impact the cwa Friday into Saturday. The
closed upper low over southern UT by 12z Friday, is progged to
shift eastward into southeast CO by 12z. If this occurs, then
there could be a prolonged period of upslope precipitation across
the Front Range, Palmer Divide and northeast plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

VFR through Sunday. North winds gusting to 30-40 knots at KDEN and
KAPA will gradually diminish through 00z, then turn east for a few
hours this evening. After that S/W drainage winds overnight and
light winds on Sunday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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