Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
414 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

High pressure aloft with light to moderate west to northwesterly
flow aloft will bring warmer and more settled weather to northeast
Colorado today. Some areas in the mountains have picked up light
snow this morning as a weak short wave crossed over the state last
evening. Any snow accumulations should be been less than a couple
inches, and several mountain web cameras show that they haven`t
received any snowfall. Any lingering showers this morning will
come to an end by mid-morning as an upper ridge builds over the
state, stabilizing and drying the airmass. Satellite imagery shows
that a fair amount of high level moisture will accompany the upper
level ridge, producing increasing high clouds over Colorado
through this afternoon. Little impact on the weather is expected
though. High temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer
than what we saw yesterday, especially over the far northeast
which was a little cooler yesterday as the midwest snowstorm was
leaving the state.

Dry and quiet conditions will continue tonight as the upper ridge
axis will be centered over Colorado. Low temperatures should be
around seasonal normals, except over the far northeast where the
airmass is cooler from the melting of Friday`s snowfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

SW flow aloft will increase on Mon ahead of an upper level trough.
Meanwhile a sfc lee trough will intensify by aftn with increasing
south to southeast winds across the plains.  Overall it will be a
dry day with warmer temps.  Readings across nern CO will range from
the mid to upper 70s near Denver while over the far nern corner
highs only reach the mid 50s.

On Tue the an upper level trough will move quickly across the area.
Snow showers will increase in the mtns by aftn due to favorable
lapse rates and decent mid lvl ascent.  Over nern CO, sfc low pres
will intensify along the front range in the morning, and then move
eastward by midday as a bora type fnt moves across the plains in
the aftn. Ahead of this feature there will be some potential for
high winds over the Palmer Divide towards the Limon area in the
morning thru early aftn. Meanwhile, as the bora type fnt moves
across in the aftn, high winds will be possible across much of
the plains into early Tue evening. As far as pcpn there could be a
chc of showers and possibly a tstm mainly nr the WY-NE border
during the aftn ahead of the fnt. As for highs, with current
timing of pacific/bora fnt, will keep readings manly in the upper
50s to mid 60s across nern CO.

By Tue night drier air will spread across the mtns along with mid
lvl descent as the upper level trough moves east of the area.  Thus
pcpn should end before midnight.  There still could be some
potential for high winds in the foothills Tue night into early wed
morning as component along winds become stronger and mtn top
stability increases. Over the plains it will be dry with gusty
winds continuing overnight.

On Wed an upper level ridge will build over the area with dry
conditions and seasonal temperatures.  Winds will still be gusty at
times over the higher terrain and over portions of the plains but
speeds will be lighter than Tue.

By Thu an upper level storm system will begin to move into the Great
Basin with increasing SWLY flow aloft as sfc low pres intensifies
near the Foothills.  Thus will see gusty south to southeast winds
develop across the plains.  As for as pcpn, there may be enough
moisture in the nrn mtns for a slight chc of showers by aftn,
otherwise it will be dry with seasonal temps.

For Thu night into Fri the ECMWF and GFS are somewhat similar in
moving an upper level low from the southern Great Basin across
southern CO into sern CO by Fri night along with decent QG ascent.
In addition both models have a cold front moving into nern CO with
favorable upslope as well on Fri.  Thus if this were to occur, then
a significant pcpn event would be possible with heavy snow over the
higher terrain.  Soundings indicate snow levels could drop down to
5500 feet during the day if the more intense GFS verifies.

By Sat the upper level is currently fcst ot move into the central US
with pcpn ending Fri night across most of the area.  The previous
ECMWF lingered this system over the area thru Sat but the latest run
has backed off on that solution for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

No aviation impacts expected today. Winds areound the Denver area
will be light and variable this morning, then easterly this
afternoon. Typical drainage winds are expected later tonight.
Ceilings and visibilities will be unlimited.


Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Fire danger will be elevated over South Park and across portions
of Elbert and Lincoln counties Monday afternoon. On Tuesday fire
danger will increase over South Park, the Foothills and along the
front range extending southeast towards the Limon area. This will
be due to expected very windy conditions ahead of and behind a
Pacific front and low humidity values.




SHORT TERM...Dankers
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