Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
454 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

SW flow aloft will remain over the area today thru tonight as sfc
low pres intensifies along the front range.  Cross-sections show
there will still be some moisture embedded in the flow especially
late this aftn through tonight with favorable lapse rates.  Thus
will mention a chc of showers mainly over the far nw mtns in zn 31.
Across the rest of the area soundings show very little cape,
however, may see an increase in mid lvl cloud cover by late aftn
into the evening hours. At this time if any showers do develop
along the front range, they will be high based and mainly virga.
As far as highs, temps should be a few degrees cooler across nern
CO with readings in the 65 to 70 degree range. Meanwhile with a
decent low lvl gradient developing along the front range gusty
south winds will develop by aftn over the Palmer Divide and the

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Southwesterly flow aloft is in place Sunday through Monday as an
upper trough moves slowly eastward towards Colorado. The trough
axis is across western Colorado by 12Z Tuesday morning. The QG
Omega fields show upward vertical velocity for the CWA all four
periods. However, the energy of the trough is split with the best
to our north and to our south. The lower level pressure and wind
fields have east and northeasterly winds across the plains all day
Sunday into Monday. Models agree a bit better then previous runs on
a cold front to move in Sunday evening. Strong north-
northeasterly winds are progged Monday afternoon through Monday
night. For moisture, Sunday starts out fairly clear/dry, then
cloudiness increases through the day and into Sunday evening.
Moisture decreases overnight Sunday into Monday early afternoon.
By later Monday continuing into the extended period, there is
pretty deep moisture over the CWA. There is some CAPE over the
plains Sunday evening well into Monday. The QPF fields start to
bring measurable precipitation into the CWA by midday Sunday.
There is measurable QPF from Sunday afternoon into the extended
periods. The greatest amounts are progged on Monday afternoon and
night. It should snow over the plains by mid Monday evening. For
temperatures, Sunday`s highs are 1-3 C cooler than this
afternoon`s. Monday`s highs are 4-7 C colder than Sunday`s. For
the later days, Tuesday through Friday, models keep troughiness
over the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. There is pretty strong north-
northwesterly flow aloft the rest of Wednesday into Friday
morning. The flow aloft weakens and is northwesterly the rest of
Friday. Models show some precipitation Wednesday and Thursday for
some of the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Areas of stratus with ceilings down to 600 ft have formed over the
Denver area early this morning with DIA being on the nrn fringe.
Latest HRRR shows this stratus may linger thru 13z with some patchy
fog possible as well.  After 13z stratus should lift pretty quickly.

Winds this morning will generally be sse. By early aftn speeds
should gradually increase into the 15-25 mph range with gusts up
to 30-35 mph at times. By 00Z winds will become more sly with
speeds still in the 15-25 mph with higher gusts possible. Wind
speeds should begin to decrease by 03z with drainage winds
overnight. Finally there could be some virga late this aftn into
the early evening with ceilings briefly down to the 8000-10000 ft


Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Fire Danger will be elevated this aftn over southeast Elbert and
Lincoln counties due to gusty winds south winds. In addition lower
elevations of Park county will have elevated Fire Danger due to
gusty southwest winds and low humidity levels.




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