Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231727 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR with mainly light easterly winds is expected to
predominate for the next 24 hours with surface high pressure in
control. A mid-level cloud deck should persist through the early
evening, with a high-level cirrus deck remaining in place
overnight. RAP BUFKIT soundings suggest that some very shallow
fog could occur at BRO and HRL early Tuesday morning, but other
guidance, such as MOS and SREF probabilities, indicates very low
chances so will not include in TAF`s at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Light winds and abundant mid to high level cloud decks
prevail across deep south Texas this morning. Light northeast winds
this morning will gradually become east by this afternoon. VFR
conditions expected for the next 24 hours with surface high
pressure in control.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Quiet weather will prevail
through the period with high pressure at the surface and aloft.
Abundant mid to upper level moisture and westerly flow aloft will
support an increase of high level clouds through late this morning.
High temperatures today will range from mid 70s along the beaches to
the mid to upper 80s inland. Light easterly flow and warm
temperatures may allow for seabreeze development late in the morning
and afternoon, but rain chances generally remain low across the
area. The combination of near-surface moisture and light winds may
allow some low clouds and patchy fog to develop across portions of
the Rio Grande Valley after midnight. Low temperatures tonight will
generally fall into the low to mid 60s. Southeast flow begins on
Tuesday as surface high pressure moves east into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tuesday will be warm with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s
at the beaches, mid to upper 80s near the coast, and around 90

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Although the majority
of the forecast period will be tranquil and dry, two periods of
isolated convection are forecast. The first event will occur
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, with the second event
occurring Saturday night through Sunday. Showers/thunderstorms
produced during these times will be the result of shortwaves
riding within the broader mid-level flow overhead. And despite the
passage of a pair of weak cold fronts through Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley, generally near normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures are expected through the entire
forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42020 reported east-northeast
winds around 12 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly
under 3.0 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Surface
high pressure will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Today
through Tuesday. A weak pressure gradient will support light east to
southeast winds and low seas through the period.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Despite the passage of a pair of
weak cold fronts, surface high pressure will dominate over the
western Gulf of Mexico during the forecast period. This will lead
to light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas for the Lower
Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory are not expected to be needed.




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