Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170124
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
924 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east across the local area tonight into
early Sunday morning with a trough lingering over the Great Lakes
region through the remainder of the weekend. Another trough will
influence the region for the first half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
925 pm update...
We made some minor tweaks to the hourly POPs through 06z
overnight to match up better with the timing of the line of
moderate to brief heavier showers associated with a cold front
moving through the area. No impactful forecast changes were
needed at this time.

710 pm update...
With this near term update, we added a slight chance for a clap
of thunder over northwest and north central Ohio this evening.
Some weak convection has developed along an approaching cold
front with a few pockets of heavier but brief showers. There
also could be some isolated graupel with some of the heavier
rain showers this evening mainly over NWOH and NCOH. The
isolated thunder could linger till about 11 pm. We are not
expecting anything strong or severe but as the broken line of
heavier showers moves through, there could be some localized
gusty winds with it. The rest of the forecast looks on track
through tomorrow.

Previous discussion...
Widespread sunshine will continue across the area through at
least mid to late afternoon before showers and clouds arrive
along a cold front approaching from the northwest this evening.
Southwesterly winds have already started to increase ahead of
the front and expect widespread wind gusts to 30 to 35 mph
through early this evening. Locations west of I-71 will likely
have a period of gusts to 35 to 40 mph with a brief window of
gusts to 40 to 45 mph possible in Hancock and Lucas counties
through late afternoon. The aforementioned showers should enter
the CWA by 00Z this evening and low level dryness may prevent
precip from reaching the surface until the lower levels moisten
a bit more in the eastern two-thirds of the CWA later tonight.
Regardless, showers will be progressive and exit to the east by
no later than 09Z/5AM Sunday.

Upper troughing will persist across the Great Lakes region through
St. Patrick`s Day and lake effect cloud cover will persist at least
in northern zones through the remainder of the near term period.
There may enough lift and moisture for scattered lake-enhanced
rain/snow showers throughout the day Sunday, but lift/moisture in
the DGZ and 850mb temps (and the resulting lake-induced instability)
will be meager until the upper trough axis pivots into the CWA
Sunday night. By late Sunday night, 850mb temps should cool to as
low as -10 to -12C and the increased instability in addition to the
better lift will result in a slightly more favorable environment for
lake effect snow. PoPs increase after sunset Sunday night with the
highest PoPs confined to NW PA. By 12Z Monday, there may be an inch
or so of snow accumulation across the higher elevations of the
snowbelt region with minimal snow amounts elsewhere.

After one mild day, cooler (more seasonable) temperatures will
arrive for the end of the weekend. Tonight`s lows will be in the mid
30s and max temperatures Sunday will only recover to the lower 40s.
Much cooler lows in the mid to upper 20s return Sunday night, but
locations along the immediate lakeshore may stay close to 30
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough digs south to the Tennessee Valley on Monday with
a good push of deeper moisture arriving during the day on Monday.
Low level lapse rates steepen with enough moisture into the
dendritic growth zone coupled with the cold pool aloft to see
scattered snow showers across much of the area. Not expecting these
to amount to much with temperatures climbing above freezing for most
of the area. Higher areas of the snowbelt that favor west northwest
flow could see a 1-2 inches during the day on Monday but expect to
see compaction and some melting east away at it. The airmass is not
cold enough for a pure lake effect set-up but more of a lake
enhanced event. The bulk of the lift is also located below the
dendritic growth zone but does extend enough of it to see snow
showers, especially downwind of Lake Erie. By Monday night, some
models like the GFS show drier air starting to sneak into both the
low and mid levels while other models like the NAM maintain a more
persistent moist flow. A surface trough does appear to swing south
across eastern Lake Erie Monday evening which could first lead to
some enhancement and then also some disruption to snow bands in its
wake. In general have another 1-3 inches in the Monday night Forecast
across the snowbelt. Winds back on Tuesday to west or southwest and
snow will become more confined to mainly Erie County PA. Moisture
will become increasingly limited but some light accumulations remain
possible. In general, looking for total snowfall of 2-5 inches but
over about a 48 hour window no Advisories or Warnings planned at
this time. If a band appears to become more of a persistent feature
or if moisture holds on longer than expected may still need to raise
forecast amounts. Temperatures will be below normal for the short
term with highs on Monday in the mid to upper 30s and Tuesday
ranging from mid 30s east to mid 40s in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A series of shortwaves move through the northwest flow aloft with
the trough deepening across southern Quebec and New England
Wednesday and Thursday. This brings another push of cold air with
below normal temperatures across the eastern half of the forecast
area. Moisture will be mainly confined to Pennsylvania and points
east where we have continued with a chance of snow showers. If the
trough axis ends up being farther to the west then indicated then
scattered rain/snow showers may be possible in Ohio as well. A ridge
of high pressure builds west to east across the region Thursday into
Thursday night with some light precipitation chances returning by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The main weather impact for aviation with this TAF update will
be the gusty southwest to westerly winds overnight through
Sunday afternoon. Overall VFR conditions are expected with
ceilings coming down to around 5000 feet this evening with a
broken line of scattered showers moving through associated with
a cold front. There could be a localized heavier shower that
could cause a drop in visibility briefly this evening but not
worthy of a mention in the TAF at this time. Broken ceilings
will stay between 5000 and 10000 feet overnight before lowering
to around 3500 feet late Sunday morning through the afternoon.
There could be a few scattered light and brief rain/snow showers
around the area on Sunday. Winds will be from the southwest this
evening 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible. Winds
will relax between 10 to 15 knots overnight and become westerly.
Gusty winds from the west will increase 15 to 20 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots possible on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or
snow Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into this evening as
southwest winds will be elevated in the 15-25 knot range west of
Geneva-on-the-Lake ahead of a cold front. The front will sweep west
to east across Lake Erie this evening. Behind the front, winds will
shift to westerly at 15-20 knots tonight, then 20-25 knots on
Sunday. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to the east half
of the Lake beginning at 10 PM through Tuesday as waves start to
build. The Small Crafts will likely need to be expanded west of
Cleveland by later Sunday but will wait to issue as it appears
somewhat marginal during the day on Sunday. Another trough crosses
Lake Erie on Tuesday night with winds dropping back into the 10-15
knot range for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146-147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Maines
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...KEC


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