882
FXUS61 KCLE 080747
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today as a cold front
becomes stationary over the Ohio Valley region. This front lifts
back north as a warm front Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
crosses the Great Lakes before settling back south as a cold
front Wednesday night as high pressure returns to the Great
Lakes. The front will continue to waver north and south through
the weekend as weak waves of low pressure ripple along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front continues to settle south early this morning,
with dew points slowly falling into the low to mid 60s. Stubborn
light showers and areas of mist/drizzle are continuing in
response to the weak mid-level trough axis passing overhead and
lingering low-level moisture, so increased PoPs slightly before
sunrise. After 10 or 11Z, the drier air will finally win out to
allow for leftover drizzle/mist to end. This will set up a very
nice day today as surface high pressure builds down into the
Great Lakes. Lingering clouds this morning will scatter out
this afternoon as the high takes control, and expect cooler
highs in the low 80s with dew points staying in the more
tolerable low to mid 60s.

The quieter weather does not last long as the surface high
weakens tonight in response to a rather strong mid/upper trough
dropping into the northern Great Lakes. This will cause the
old frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley to start to lift back
north as a warm front. The boundary looks to make it as far
north as the lakeshore or over Lake Erie Wednesday, and as the
mid/upper trough axis progresses into the eastern Great Lakes by
Wednesday night, it will push the boundary back southward.
Increasing warm/moist/theta e advection and isentropic ascent
as the boundary lifts north late tonight will likely trigger
some scattered showers and thunderstorms, so increased PoPs
slightly above NBM in NW and north central Ohio before sunrise.
The bulk of the convection will occur Wednesday afternoon and
evening as diurnal instability interacts with increasing
synoptic support as the mid/upper trough axis slides just north
of the region. A belt of seasonably strong 50-55 knot westerly
mid-level flow rounding the base of the trough axis will lead
to near 30 knots of deep layer bulk shear Wednesday afternoon
and evening, especially near Lake Erie, and this combined with
MLCAPE increasing to at least 1000 J/Kg will support loosely
organized multicell clusters. We are not currently outlooked for
any severe weather at this time, but would not be surprised to
see a few severe storms with damaging winds to 60 mph,
especially given what looks to be fairly dry mid-levels to boost
DCAPE. Additionally, the frontal boundary aligned mostly
parallel to the mid-level flow and juicy airmass (PWATS back
over 1.50 inches and deep warm cloud layers) will support
locally heavy rainfall rates and training convection.

High temperatures Wednesday will warm back into the low to mid
80s as dew points increase back to around 70 after lows Tuesday
night in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will settle back south as a cold front Wednesday night
behind the departing mid/upper trough axis. Weak high pressure
will attempt to return to the Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday, but the front will likely not make it much past the US
30 corridor. This will keep a warm and humid airmass in place,
with chances for convection continuing, especially in southern
areas. Allowed PoPs to gradually dry out Wednesday night, but
kept chances for Thursday given diurnal heating and the boundary
nearby. Lakeshore areas will probably stay dry Thursday.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong winds will again
accompany any convection in southern areas Thursday. By Friday
and Friday night, the boundary will slowly lift back north again
in response to a strong mid/upper trough moving into the
northern Plains. This will keep scattered convection in place,
with max coverage during daytime heating Friday. Overall, exact
coverage of convection is low confidence in this weakly forced
pattern, so kept broad brushed NBM PoPs Wednesday night through
Friday night, which gives mainly dry conditions at night and
slight chance to chance PoPs in the afternoons and evenings.

Highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday will warm into the mid to
upper 80s Friday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night
will be slightly cooler Thursday night when low to mid 60s are
expected. Much milder lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are
expected Friday night.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The movement of the stubborn frontal boundary is uncertain this
weekend into the start of next week since deterministic and
ensemble guidance differs with how the aforementioned northern
Plains shortwave trough ejects. The boundary will likely remain
somewhere close to the region through Saturday, so NBM PoPs for
convection look reasonable. These PoPs may end up higher or
lower depending on how the upstream trough potentially interacts
with the boundary. By Sunday and Monday, confidence is starting
to increase that broad and flat mid/upper ridging will start to
build over the central and eastern CONUS as a Bermuda High
strengthens near the Southeast U.S. coast. This could eventually
support an even warmer and drier forecast than current NBM
guidance, but for now, expect temperatures to mainly continue in
the mid to upper 80s with periodic convection, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Showers have largely ended across the area but a little light
rain or drizzle remains possible at ERI through 08Z. Otherwise,
high pressure will build in from the north today with
subsidence increasing. Moist low level conditions remain with a
mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings across the area except towards TOL
where skies have cleared out. Ceilings are largely expected to
lower to IFR over the next several hours and can expect to see
visibilities at most inland terminals lower into the MVFR range.
There is uncertainty in how low ceilings and visibilites will
get towards dawn, but could see low IFR ceilings at CAK/MFD/YNG
and also IFR visibilities which could drop to a half mile or
less in the 09-12Z window. Locations that clear out like TOL/FDY
could also see IFR visibilities as temperatures cool late
tonight. CLE and ERI are likely to see less of an impact with
potential for a couple hours of MVFR visibilities.

On Tuesday morning, visibilities are expected to rapidly improve after
12Z and ceilings are likely to lift to MVFR for much of the
morning before scattering out for the afternoon. Light north
winds may go calm overnight then be out of the west or northwest
on Tuesday. Winds will go calm or develop out of the southeast
after 00Z Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday, with the best chance
during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions with light winds and waves expected
this week. Winds will decrease this morning as high pressure builds
over the region. Waves near 2 feet early will drop to a foot or less
this afternoon. Winds develop out of the south at 10 knots or less
Wednesday, then veer to northwesterly behind a weak cold front
Thursday morning. High pressure returns Thursday night into Friday.
A system does look to cross the Central Great Lakes over the weekend
but there is uncertainty in the track and strength and the resultant
winds with this system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10