Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 290444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1044 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Increasing rain chances and potential for minor coastal flooding
  into Wednesday Night

Dry conditions tonight will become increasingly more humid
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a moderate onshore flow resumes.
A slight chance for showers is in the cards for Wednesday with the
chances increasing to around 30-60% across eastern portions of
the CWA by Wednesday night owing to very efficient isentropic
lift at 300K level. Although PoPs are moderate to high, rainfall
amounts will be minimal, and generally totaling to less than a
quarter of an inch through the period. Therefore, no flooding is
expected at this time. A passing disturbance late Wednesday night
will also bring a slight chance for thunderstorms and potentially
some patchy fog along the showers. Aside from this, expect warmer
temperatures Wednesday through Wednesday night and mostly cloudy
to overcast skies. Overnight lows tonight may dip into the 40s to
50s, and into the 50s and 60s on Wednesday night. Daytime highs
tomorrow will generally range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s

The combination of a moderate to strong onshore flow developing
offshore Wednesday night and the arrival of slightly longer
period swells (~7-8 seconds) may lead to an increased potential
for some minor coastal flooding to occur along the Gulf-facing
beaches. P-ETSS guidance is currently indicating tides to reach
around 1.8-1.9 feet MSL at Aransas Pass at the time of high tide
tomorrow night. So, we will need to keep an eye on this in case
an Advisory is required.


(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Cold front late this work week and another one early next week

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible this week

- Windy conditions expected both onshore and offshore Thursday/Friday

The long term period will start out with PWATs in the 1.5-1.7"
range according to the GEFS with stout isentropic lifting at the
295-300K level. Resulting in the best chance for precipitation
during the period. Have PoP`s Thursday morning 30-70% east of I-37
with higher PoP`s northeast of our CWA. Then, PWAT`s quickly drop
off Thursday to around 1.10" as a 35-40kt LLJ over South Texas
spirits away the moisture ahead of our next front. A mid-level
trough over the Desert SW, will swing northeastward across
northern portions of TX sending a front surging southward down
through our area Thursday night/Friday and a surface low
associated with the trough will develop and move eastward across
the region. Another trough develops over the western CONUS over
the weekend with an attendant cold front. This front is expected
to arrive in South Texas sometime early next week. Not much
confidence how much moisture will be available as ensemble members
show a widespread of solutions and a mean of around 1.25" PWATs.
For now have PoP`s on Sunday capped at 20% inland and to 20-45%
offshore. As precip chances slowly decrease, we will dry out once
again Monday afternoon through the end of the period.

Temperatures: Afternoon temperatures start in the upper 70s to low
80s then drop to the low to mid 70s after FROPA. Lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s before the front dip into the low to upper 50s
this weekend, then dip again to the mid 40s to 50s after next
week`s front.

Hazards: Chances remain good for windy conditions on Thursday with
southerly winds ahead of the front around 20 knots gusting to around
30-35 kts. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Thurs to Fri
with gusts to Gale force. Finally, increased seas and long period
swells combined with a strong onshore flow may lead to some minor
Coastal Flooding during times of high tide Thu of this week.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions continue tonight. MVFR conditions will begin to
develop from the southwest to northeast early Wednesday morning,
with all sites MVFR by the afternoon. Isolated showers are
expected to develop during the day Wednesday so have included
this in the TAFs. While confidence is not high, IFR/LIFR
conditions are possible during times of heavier rainfall for the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.


Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A weak northeast to easterly flow can be expected across the
coastal waters tonight. The flow will then become more easterly
to southeasterly on Wednesday increasing to weak to moderate
levels during the day, and to moderate to strong levels overnight.
Advisory conditions are likely by early Thursday morning. A
strong to very strong onshore flow is expected Thursday with
Small Craft Advisory conditions and gusts to gale force possible.
After a front moves offshore the flow becomes weak to moderate and
variable early Friday. By Friday night, northeasterly weak to
moderate flow develops and persists into next week becoming
variable at times from the northeast to the northwest.


Corpus Christi    53  69  64  81 /   0  20  40  20
Victoria          47  67  61  76 /   0  10  60  70
Laredo            53  60  58  79 /   0  20  10   0
Alice             51  66  61  80 /   0  30  30  10
Rockport          55  69  63  76 /   0  10  40  30
Cotulla           51  61  57  77 /   0  20  20  10
Kingsville        52  68  62  82 /   0  20  30  10
Navy Corpus       59  71  67  77 /   0  20  40  20




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