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000
FXUS64 KCRP 302250
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
550 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFs/

A surface low will continue to push toward the Middle Texas coast
tonight, bringing a slight chance of showers to the area. Most
terminals will remain VFR but VCT is expected to develop MVFR
ceilings as showers and thunderstorms develop. VCTS is mentioned
in all TAF sites across and east of the Coastal Plains as the
aforementioned low moves onshore and across the area. Visibility
may diminish in and around any of the heavier
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Surface low appears to be over the coastal waters east of Corpus
Christi Bay with the mid level low east of Matagorda Bay. Most of
the deep convection is east of the low over the northwest Gulf
of Mexico northward to the upper Texas coast. Isolated convection
has formed along the developing sea breeze along the coast at this
time. Most of this activity will diminish by the start of the
tonight period.

The mid level low will continue to move north toward the upper
Texas coast tonight and move into southeast Texas on Friday. The
surface low is expected to move north to Matagorda Bay this
evening. Higher moisture will be over the coastal waters to the
upper Texas coast with PW values slightly above 2 inches in the
Mid-Coast region. As the surface low moves inland tonight, a
low level convergence zone will form just off the Mid-Coast region
north to the upper Texas coast. NAM/GFS show an increasing omega
field at 70H near Matagorda Bay by 12Z Friday. Will show rain
chances increasing late tonight into Friday morning for the
Mid-Coast region. Scattered convection will be possible in the
Victoria area Friday afternoon while rain chances will be limited
to only slight chance for development along the sea breeze.

Drier air will move into the region for Friday night as the mid
level low continues to move away from south Texas.

Without any additional rain at CRP today, the monthly rainfall
amount will be 0.27 inches. That would make it the 11th driest
June on record for Corpus Christi. Laredo will end with a trace of
rainfall for the month of June, which ties for the 9th driest
June on record. There have been 8 years when Laredo received no
rainfall in June.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Not much change with the long term forecast. High pressure and drier
air will build into the region over the course of the weekend. With
that said, we will hang on to some low end rain chances on Saturday
as some deeper moisture lingers across the region. Any activity will
likely be sea breeze driven with some potential support aloft via
some H5 energy being tugged across the Coastal Plains. After
Saturday, PWATs fall to around 1.6-1.7" through much of next week.
Without any upper level support, not expecting much in the way of
rainfall. However, an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out
along the daily sea breeze but didn`t reflect this in the forecast
due to lack of confidence. Towards the end of the forecast period,
some deeper moisture looks to arrive which may bring rain chances
back into the forecast.

Temperatures will gradually warm up over the weekend and into early
next week. Highs look to top out around 90 degrees along the coast
and between 100-105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices will
generally range from 105-109 daily with a few spots briefly reaching
110 at times.

MARINE...

Surface low over the coastal waters east of Corpus Christi Bay
this afternoon will move north this evening move inland near
Matagorda Bay late tonight. A moderate southeast flow will develop
over the Gulf waters tonight with SCEC conditions. The SCEC
conditions will continue Friday into Friday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Gulf waters
tonight, then become more isolated by Friday afternoon as the low
pressure area moves northeast of the area.

A moderate onshore flow will expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may
be possible on Saturday before dry conditions set in as we head into
the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  94  79  93  79  /  20  20  10  10   0
Victoria          75  92  77  94  77  /  40  40  20  30  10
Laredo            78 103  79 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
Alice             74  99  76  98  76  /  10  20  10  10   0
Rockport          79  93  82  93  82  /  40  30  10  10   0
Cotulla           78 103  79 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        76  98  77  96  79  /  10  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       81  92  82  91  83  /  30  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LS/77...AVIATION