295
FXUS64 KCRP 092332
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

-Tropical Storm Francine has formed in the SW Gulf and is forecast
to make landfall along the Upper Texas to Louisiana coast mid-week

-Multiple hazards are in effect in relation to Tropical Storm
Francine

Enjoy the last day of having drier air in the area! Moisture is
expected to continue pooling (PWATs 2.5-3.0 inches) into the area
this evening into tomorrow as Tropical Storm Francine progresses
through the Gulf. Periods of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected through the middle of the week in the
Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads out into the Gulf waters.
Any showers and thunderstorms that develop over the area will
produce heavy downpours due to the efficient environment, which
could lead to some minor flooding. WPC has kept the immediate
coast in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Currently, radar
imagery shows some rain bands beginning to move into portions of
our marine zones. This is expected to continue increasing late
this evening into tonight with the approach of Francine.

In terms of hazards, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued from now
through Thursday afternoon. This will be monitored for a
potential upgrade to a warning in the future, as up to 2-3 feet of
inundation is possible. A Tropical Storm Watch was introduced to
the bays and nearshore waters as well as the coastal portions of
the Coastal Bend due to the track shifting back to the west
slightly. The Tropical Storm Watch for the offshore waters was
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as a result to that track
shift as well. In regards to winds, there is a 60-90% chance for
tropical-storm-force winds over our offshore Gulf waters, with a
30-50% chance along the coast and nearshores. Bays and seas are
expected to be very rough through Wednesday as the storm leaves
the area. The High Risk of rip currents was also extended through
Thursday.

Temperatures will be pretty warm out west through midweek as highs
look to persist around 95 degrees. The coast will be slightly cooler
with highs in the upper 80s tomorrow with low 90s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

As the storm continues to track out of the area, expect upper level
ridging to build in as we head into the weekend. There will be a low
chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the onset of
peak heating and the arrival of the sea breeze each day.
Temperatures will return to our typical highs around 100 out west
with 90s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight with MVFR
ceilings developing tomorrow morning around 14/15z across the
eastern sites as Tropical Storm Francine approaches the region.
Rain bands from the tropical storm could begin affecting TAF sites
by tomorrow morning. Gusty winds can be expected in and around
thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain possible. Confidence is
low at this time with the development and coverage of
thunderstorms depending on the actual track of Tropical Storm
Francine.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Strong northeasterly flow will persist around 20-25 knots. A
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the bays and nearshore
waters through Wednesday morning. The Tropical Storm Watch that
was previously in effect for the offshore waters has been upgraded
to a Tropical Storm Warning. Elevated winds up to 35 knots and
seas 8 to 13 feet are possible Tuesday into early Wednesday with
gusts up to 45 knots. There is a medium to high chance of showers
and thunderstorms expected through the remainder of the week.
Mariners are urged to monitor the forecast and take necessary
precautions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  74  85  74 /  20  40  60  50
Victoria          87  71  87  72 /  10  10  50  40
Laredo            89  73  94  73 /   0   0  20  10
Alice             85  73  89  73 /  10  20  40  30
Rockport          86  74  87  75 /  20  40  70  60
Cotulla           91  71  95  73 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        84  73  86  74 /  20  30  60  40
Navy Corpus       83  76  84  76 /  30  60  70  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...JCP/84