870
FXUS63 KDDC 161712
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend into the weekend will see temperatures
  climbing well above normal.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to portions of central
  Kansas late in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure
transitioning east through the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a closed
upper low is situated across southern Arizona. Near the surface, a
frontal boundary is pushing southeast across south central Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma.

Relatively dry conditions are forecast today into tonight as the
SREF indicates the upper level trough in the Northern Plains
shifting eastward through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
while a small surface high spreads east across the high plains of
eastern Colorado and western Kansas through this afternoon. However,
there is a very minimal chance (10%) for light rain across extreme
southern portions of southwest/south central Kansas later this
afternoon and evening as a secondary upper level trough in the
Desert Southwest dislodges eastward through west Texas into southern
Oklahoma. The HREF shows just a 10% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding
0.1 of an inch along the Oklahoma border in the late afternoon and
evening time period.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected today as cooler air
associated with a surface high spreads into southwest Kansas,
holding H85 temperatures to the mid-teens(C). With the HREF
indicating a 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in
central Kansas to only a 20-40% probability in extreme southwest
Kansas, look for highs generally in the 70s(F) this afternoon
with increased cloud cover helping keep temperatures lower closer
to the Oklahoma border. For tonight, the HREF paints only a 10%
probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central
Kansas with a 60-80% probability of temperatures falling below
50F in west central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Tranquil conditions are forecast into the early part of the weekend
as medium range ensembles indicate weak ridging aloft drifting east
through the Desert Southwest Friday, and farther east into the Southern
High Plains Saturday, all while a broad surface high spreads east
out of the Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm
chances (30-50%) return to portions of central Kansas late in the
weekend as an upper level trough begins to dig southeast through the
Pacific Northwest late Sunday, setting up an increasingly difluent
westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Although a fair
amount of uncertainty exists this far out regarding track/timing
of this system, prevailing southerlies in wake of a departing surface
high will draw ample moisture up into central Kansas and portions
of southwest Kansas ahead of a developing surface low projected in
eastern Colorado, providing more than sufficient instability. This
will support diurnally driven thunderstorm development late Sunday
as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains, interacting with an axis of low level convergence
associated with a dryline. Again, the best chance (30-50%) for
thunderstorms will be across central Kansas in vicinity of the
I-70 corridor where the NBM paints a 40% probability of 12-hr QPF
exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Sunday night.

A warming trend into the weekend is likely as prevailing southerlies
through much of the period draw warmer air into western Kansas, pushing
H85 temperatures a little above 20C Friday, to well up into the 20s(C)
Sunday. For Friday, the NBM shows a 80-90% probability of afternoon
highs exceeding 80F with 60-80% probability of highs pushing above
90F Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Light winds will prevail through the period as weak surface
high pressure parks over the high plains. VFR conditions can be
expected with some cloud AOA120.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch