


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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321 FXUS63 KDDC 152030 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Today with temperatures near the century mark in some areas. - Increasing thunderstorm chances (50-80%) late Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Convection chances this evening are very low. Ensemble based probabilities for lighting are only about 5-10 % from Syracuse to Scott City between about 7 pm and 11 pm MDT. If any storms occurs , lightning and moderately gusty winds (20-40 mph) are the main expected impacts in those areas. There a high level smoke plume on satellite (and modeled by the HRRR vertically integrated smoke fields) coming out of Arizona Grand Canyon fires that should make for an interesting sunset and maybe even lower the visibility in a weak haze for a day or two. A balmy overnight expected with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s west. And in the low to mid 70s in the Lower Plains. A large area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will gradually move equatorward over the short term, pushing a cold front across Kansas and western CO on Wednesday. This will likely create (50-80% coverage) moderate intensity rain showers and thunderstorms as early as mid afternoon Wednesday and extending through the overnight, ending altogether sometime Thursday morning. Highest precipitation probabilities are focused over west central Kansas (upwards of 80 percent chance as the convective allowing models develop various renditions of a forward propagating MCS) while the lower probabilities (20-50%) area found across the Red Hills region. In general, at DDC, we are not looking for heavy rain accumulations. There is about a 10% chance of an inch of rain while about a 40% chance for a quarter of an inch through Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are again possible each day from Thursday through the weekend. About a 60 % chance for thunderstorms on Thursday evening over the western counties, shifts eastward over the next few days into the weekend decreasing to around the 30 and 20 percent chance thresholds. The Cold frontal influence as well as evening Thunderstorms on Thursday will limited temperatures to the 70s and low 80s in the afternoon, with the coolest overnight temps in the low 60s by Friday morning. Thursdays max will be dictated by the placement or timing of the front, for instance at DDC the high temp 75th and 25th percentile NBM values fall at 84 degrees and 77 degrees. Heat Risk build back up through early and mid next week as lows are limited to the 70s and highs get back into the upper 90s and low 100s F. It is not a particularly windy period as the NBM percentile mean gusts are capped at around 15 to 20 knots most days. By Monday, areas southeast of a Hays to Elkhart line will be under a moderate category heat risk (level 2 of 4) and he heat risk should expand and increase into midweek as more areas hit 100F. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Impacts to aviation later this evening will be limited however a plume of smoke from a New Mexico fire may be reducing visibility in haze to the MVFR category (3-5 SM) for a while from mid evening through the overnight. A surface cold front approaching the area will be another area of surface mass convergence where shallow fog could develop north of the forecast area toward 10-13z, however at this time HREF probabilities are only up to the 20% threshold for less than one half mile visibility across the KS/NE line. The gusty southwest winds ongoing will cease late evening (04-07z), and drop to around 10 knots through the morning before mixing resumes around 10 am and gusts up to 20-23 kts return. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell