Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 151702
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1102 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Upper level ridge will pass through today with strengthening
southwest flow setting up over the region tonight and Monday. This
will bring dry and warmer weather to the area today, followed by
an another wind event on Monday.

Expect a strong cold front to move into the Great Basin on Monday
with pressure gradients tightening up rather dramatically. This
brings a return of the Spring winds to the region with afternoon
and evening gusts exceeding 40 mph. Potential need for wind
highlights on Monday are looking more realistic and will let the
day shift evaluate that possibility.

Front has slowed by about 6-12 hours in the latest model runs, so
any threat of precipitation has diminished during this short term
period. So concerns will be with fire weather conditions which is
discussed below.

Temperatures will be climbing back above seasonal norms today and
again on Monday with min temps rebounding as well as we see things
mix up a bit more during the nocturnal hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The next storm will be on our door step Monday Night and should
keep mild and breezy conditions in place ahead of the surface
front moving through after sunrise on Tuesday. Dry air moving in
ahead this system will prevent any significant prefrontal
precipitation. Models have slowed slightly and looks like the
front will be moving into NE Utah after sunrise then slowly work
southeast through the early afternoon. This storm is cold and the
instability behind the front on Tuesday should help squeeze out
any available moisture...which is not much with this storm. The
med range models are differing with timing of the front attm and
this is affecting the guidance numbers for highs on Tuesday but
have a bit more confidence in the NAM/MET attm. A transitory ridge
moves across mid week as the next storm system arrives to the
NorCal Left Coast by late Wednesday. Looking at the GFS H500 progs
of this storm for early Friday...there is very little to be
confident about for timing and placement. The GEM is similar with
only the EURO having some semblance of sanity during this time.
The storm track would be across our southern CWA on Friday with
precipitation filling in mainly due to instability aloft. This
storm will really be picking up it`s moisture from the GOMex with
a true warm conveyor belt setting up by Friday. It will just be a
matter if this thing can slow down and we get in some of the
action with a branch of the warm conveyor belt getting forced back
upstream. Right now it appear the Front Range will still benefit
the most from this storm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the area for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will increase as a storm approaches from the west.
Southwest winds will increase Monday causing area of turbulence
over the mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Windy to very windy conditions are expected Monday afternoon and
evening across much of eastern Utah and western Colorado with RH
values likely to tumble below 15 percent for several hours. In
areas where fuels have been deemed critical, Red Flag Warnings
have been issued (Colorado zones 207, 290, 295 and 203 below 6k).
The windy conditions will persist into the late evening hours
Monday with a strong cold front passing through Tuesday morning.
Another windy day is possible on Thursday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ203-207-
     290-295.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...JDC



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