Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 082339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Following the departure of this afternoon`s cold front (and
associated precipitation), we will enter into a period of cooler and
drier weather that is expected to persist through the upcoming
weekend before the arrival of our next system during the early part
of next week. Moderate northwest winds behind the departing cold
front will gradually taper off overnight as an area of surface high
pressure moves overhead. Clearer skies and CAA will push low
temperatures this evening down into the upper 30s/40s for most
locations. As the surface high quickly departs to the east tomorrow,
we will briefly re-enter into a period of onshore flow which should
provide us with some scattered cloud cover during the later part of
the day. As such, daytime highs look to still approach around 70
tomorrow afternoon. This flow regime will be short-lived, however,
as a robust area of surface high pressure over the North Central
CONUS pushes a stronger reinforcing cold front through the area
tomorrow night, with steady moderate northwest winds developing in
its wake. Overnight lows tomorrow night once again drop off into the
40s for most locations.



(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

The reinforcing cold front should be well off the coast early
Friday morning. Cool, dry & breezy conditions will prevail in its
wake. Freezing overnight lows are anticipated over the n/nw parts
of the CWA Friday and Saturday nights.

Surface & upper level ridging behind this front track east of the
area Sunday. A long tap of Pacific moisture riding the southwesterlies
aloft will bring increasing cloud cover into the region during
the day Sunday. Low levels rapidly modify thereafter in advance of
the next upper level trof digging into northern Mexico on Monday.
Strong llvl jet increasing to 50-60kt into Monday night will
transport 1.4-1.6" PW`s back into the region. Look for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to begin developing to our west Monday
night as larger scale lift increases with the approach of the upper
trof and associated Pacific cold front. Models are in fair agreement
with timing at this point, and assuming not much changes we`d
expect the precipitation to push overhead early Tuesday then move
eastward and out of the region toward early afternoon. We`ll need
to keep an eye on the potential for severe storms with this system
& moreso if timing ends up being slower than currently forecast.
In what otherwise could be a decent set up, forecast instability
looks to be a significant limiting factor at this time. 47


(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 514 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

The cold front is exiting to the east bringing with it the showers
and thunderstorms. Ceilings are improving from west to east with
CLL already back to VFR. CIGS will rise to 1500-2500 by 1z, and
then up to 4000 to 5000ft by 3z. Breezy northwesterly flow will
also continue through around 3z before becoming light and variable
overnight. The calm winds, clear skies, and lingering low level
moisture may lead to some patchy ground fog popping up across the
area, mainly north of I-10. Any fog that does for will dissipate
by the morning hours on Thursday. Winds will continue to be light
tomorrow, but generally from a south to southwest direction.



Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will be coming to an end by early
evening as a cold front advances further into the Gulf waters.
Winds and seas will briefly increase after the frontal passage,
but should begin diminishing during the late night hours. A short
fuse Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through the late
evening hours. A stronger, dry, reinforcing front will push into
the waters late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Wind
gusts to gale force are possible with this front. Winds and seas
settle over the weekend with high pressure in the vicinity. Onshore
winds will quickly increase Sunday night and Monday ahead of a
fairly strong storm system and associated cold front expected to
move into the area Monday night and Tuesday.  47


College Station (CLL)  38  68  42  52 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  42  69  45  57 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  50  61  50  57 /  20   0   0  10


TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335-

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.



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