


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
746 FXUS64 KHGX 130518 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Chances for scattered showers and storms continues Sunday into early next week. A few strong storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Moderate to High rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches on Sunday. - Potential for high temperatures to peak in the mid 90s after the middle of next week. Heat indices in the triple digits for most of the week. - A coastal trough approaches the north-central Gulf coast towards the end of the work week bringing an increasing chance of showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Taking a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Saturday, it`s very apparent the vast majority of the area did not see rain...but those that did saw quite a bit. The big winner for Saturday was eastern Montgomery County where an estimated 2-3+" fell today, and in fact most of the rain that fell on Saturday occurred north of I-10. The reason I`m bringing that up is because Sunday looks to favor a similar rainfall pattern. Latest HREF reflects most of the rainfall occuring north of I-10 again on Sunday. This is due to greater moisture availability across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods (PW values greater than 2.0") and closer proximity to a shortwave trough extending from central Texas to northeast Texas. Coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase in the late morning to afternoon hours as convection moves in from central Texas. A combination of outflow boundaries and daytime heating is expected to lead to additional convection ahead of the incoming broken line of storms. As we saw on Saturday, any of the stronger storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Rainfall rates could exceed 2-3"/hr, so an extended period of heavy rain over one area could result in pockets of 1-3" of rainfall totals. As a result, WPC has portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall for Sunday. As far as temperatures go, expect high temperatures in the low 90s with a few spots of mid 90s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. The shortwave trough remains in place going into Monday although there is some slight uncertainty on when or if it evolves into a cutoff low around the Red River. In some deterministic guidance this occurs a bit earlier which would take away most of the PVA by Monday. As you can imagine that would have an impact on rain chances. For now, we`re playing it safe and keeping rain chances somewhat elevated on Monday, but after that rain chances go on a decreasing trend into midweek. This lines up with a gradually expanding mid level high that will be centered over the southeastern CONUS. That explains the slight warming trend up into the mid 90s (a few spots in the upper 90s can`t be completely ruled out) around midweek. Heat indices will be in the triple digits for most of the week, but dew points should mix out enough to keep heat indices just below advisory criteria. Towards the end of the work week, a coastal trough develops in the eastern Gulf and tracks westward into the north-central Gulf coast. This will lead to increasing chances of showers/storms...check out the Tropical section down below. Now I already know what y`all are thinking ("check out the WHAT!!!"), but the NHC has given this coastal trough a low probability of tropical development over the next 7 days. More details below. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Going to be a bit of a rinse-and-repeat forecast through Sunday. Got some lingering, but weakening, thunderstorms impacting CXO and UTS currently, but these storms are expected to end no later than 1z. Some isolated showers will also be popping up in the coastal waters through late this evening as well. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the day on Sunday following the similar pattern of initiating along the coast in the late morning, then spreading inland through the afternoon before dissipating in the evening. VFR conditions will continue through around midnight across the area, then BKN CIGs around 2000ft are expected to develop at CLL, UTS, and possibly down to CXO during the late night hours through around sunrise. Patchy fog will also be possible. Southerly winds continue with winds around 5kt overnight, then rising to 8-12kt during the day (with higher gusts near thunderstorms). Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through next week. Southeasterly winds overnight look to briefly approach the threshold for caution flags with sustained winds around 15 kt. This elevated onshore flow will keep seas around 4 ft through Sunday along with increasing the rip current risk, so be sure to take the proper precautions if visiting any Gulf-facing beaches. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue into early next week with some storms having the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and elevated seas. There will be a brief period of drier conditions around midweek before shower/storm chances return at the end of the work week as a coastal trough transitions from the eastern Gulf to the north-central Gulf coast. Batiste Beach conditions: There is a Moderate to High risk of rip current along all Gulf-facing beaches on Sunday. Use extra caution! Always follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from piers and jetties. JM && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 You might be surprised to see a Tropical section in the AFD, but rest assured there is no need to worry. This is only being addressed since there will probably be questions about the low (20%) probability of tropical development in the central/eastern Gulf over the next seven days. Going into early next week, a trough of low pressure is expected to develop near or around the Big Bend region of Florida (far eastern Gulf) and drift westward towards the central Gulf staying right along the coast. Some gradual development of this coastal trough is possible around or after midweek. The vast majority of ensemble members take this trough of low pressure into the north-central Gulf coast bringing that region rounds of heavy rainfall. Towards the end of the work week, some of that moisture drifts into the Upper Texas coast bringing an increase in rain chances for our area. Other than increased rain chances late in the work week, no other impacts are expected for Southeast Texas at this time. Stay up to date on the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and stay up to date on the latest forecasts for Southeast Texas at weather.gov/houston Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 30 0 Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 76 / 50 10 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 30 10 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Batiste