Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 240910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Early morning surface analysis indicates a broad area of low
pressure situated across eastern Tx and western La. The weak
frontal boundary pushed through Sunday morning transported the
deeper moisture to the east and offshore. This should provide
another mostly dry day for the majority of inland areas, but do
expect some iso/sct late afternoon & early evening activity to
develop along the seabreeze.

As lee side and west Tx pressures fall, look for a return of
onshore winds and for higher moisture levels to gradually return
Tue. PW`s make it back into the 2.0-2.2" range by early Wed in
advance of a cold front moving into ncntl Tx. Look for increasing
precip coverage throughout the day as the boundary approaches
northern parts of the CWA toward evening (the latest model suite
drives the llvl ridging & push further south than what was
indicated yday). Upper forcing becomes less supportive of a
continued push Thurs and suggestive that it stalls somewhere
in/near the region. However, confidence exactly where is low
considering the continued southward trends. It`ll probably end up
being determined on the mesoscale again with extra nudges from
cold pools/boundaries generated by the precip. For now, we brought
a windshift to the the coast and slightly lower dewpoints into
the northern half of the area.

Good shra/tstm chances will continue along and south of the front
Thurs and Fri so POPs will need to be adjusted w/ observed trends.

Onshore winds should resume again by late Friday allowing the Gulf
to fully open back up and rain chances to continue through the
weekend.  47


These light west winds will be transitioning to a more southerly one
as the weak frontal boundary continues to wash out and the upper low
moves NE out of the area. The light/moderate onshore flow developing
later this afternoon should persist through Tues night. Another area
of low pressure deepening over the TX Panhandle (on Mon) is evental-
ly forecast to drag another weak cold front into SE TX by Weds...and
perhaps into the bays/nearshore waters Weds night. Given the time of
year and lack of model confidence, the boundary could stall well in-
land on Weds and keep S/SE winds in place over the marine waters for
the rest of the week. However...with the onshore flow persisting and
deeper tropical moisture moving in ahead of the front...we should be
seeing the return of scattered storms by Tues. 41


Despite the combination of light/calm winds...wet grounds...low dew-
point spreads, the persistent mid/high wraparound clouds should help
to keep the development of MVFR CIGS limited to just a few spots for
the morning. OTherwise, VFR conditions expected areawide by the aft-
ernoon. However, with the return on onshore winds tonight, we may be
seeing the return of scattered showers along the coast by early Tues
morning. 41


College Station (CLL)      87  72  91  73  86 /  20  10  20  20  70
Houston (IAH)              88  73  90  73  88 /  20  20  30  40  70
Galveston (GLS)            86  79  88  78  86 /  10  40  40  50  50




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