Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 151138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Overall there are not any aviation concerns the next 24-30 hrs.
High pressure over the region will allow for light winds today and
clear skies. One line TAFs for everyone!

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
Another clear and cool night has brought temperatures below
freezing across Southeast Texas. Most areas north of a Colorado-
Intercontinental-Cleveland line are at or below 30 F, with a few
areas in Wharton, Fort Bend, and Brazoria counties sub-freezing.
No freeze warning is in effect because these are areas that have
already verified temperatures below freezing this season. Expect
to get another 2 to 3 degrees of radiational cooling with clear
skies and calm winds early this morning before we warm up to the
upper-50s today. Surface high pressure will continue to sit over
the Texas coast through Friday, keeping skies clear and allowing a
gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will warm to near seasonal on Saturday with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.

The high pressure system will slide eastward over the Northern
Gulf this weekend, causing surface winds to veer to southeasterly
by Saturday. This flow will result in moisture slowly returning to
the area as dew points rise from the low 40s to near 60.
Isentropic upglide and slight surface convergence will help
trigger the return of showers Saturday evening through Sunday. An
additional focus for rain on Sunday will be along a weak cold
front approaching Southeast Texas from the northwest. Although
there is lesser confidence in specific timing of the front, Sunday
afternoon and night will have the highest rain chances. There
will not be any sub-freezing temperatures caused by this front.

There is still a large amount with uncertainty for the forecast
late next week. What seems apparent at this time is that a series
of upper level shortwaves will pass through Texas in the Wednesday
to Friday time frame. At the same time, a coastal trough
developing over the Western Gulf early next week and associated
surface boundary will track north to northeastward along the Texas
Coast. The onshore flow will allow PWs to increase above 1.5" by
Thursday morning. The biggest factor that will determine where the
greatest impacts will be seen is the track of that coastal low.
The farther inland it progresses, the more area that will be in
the warm sector, and the placement of the boundary will affect
where the heaviest rainfall is located.

Regardless of the coastal low`s track, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected for most of Southeast Texas late next
week. Because this system is still 7 to 8 days out, the timing
will continue to shift between that 2 to 3 day range, if not more.
When a clearer consensus is reached, POPs will be raised,
accordingly. For holiday travel, there could be potentially
hazardous conditions near what is notoriously the worst travel day
in the country. Please continue to keep up with the local
forecast, as well as your location for the holiday, as the
forecast continues to evolve over the next week.

22

.MARINE...Surface high pressure has moved over SE Texas this
morning which has allowed for light northerly winds and subsiding
seas. These conditions should continue today as high pressure
moves east. Southerly winds develop Friday night and increase
Saturday. The next cold front should enter the region on Sunday
and push off the coast Sunday night into Monday morning. This will
cause an increase in northeast winds behind the front possibly
requiring a small craft exercise caution.

Tide levels should continue to recover closer to astronomical levels
over the next couple of days especially for the upper portions of
the bays and Houston Ship Channel.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  58  39  67  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          57  40  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        56  51  64  60  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck


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