Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 140253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

No major changes needed in tonight`s update, only warmed
temperatures a touch to account for trends in observations. Low
temperatures tonight should fall into the low 60s to mid 70s.
Isolated shower and thunderstorms activity should develop over
the Gulf waters and spread inland through the morning hours
tomorrow associated with the return of onshore flow and a warm
front which should push northward through the daytime hours.
Expect coverage to become more scattered in coverage by the
afternoon, as better moisture streams in across the region.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 640 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...

The cloudy skies today is due to in part because of a tropical
disturbance located near the Baja Peninsula streaming moisture
eastward. Model soundings showing some low level dry air that is
preventing any precipitation from this surge of moisture from
reaching the ground. However, this will be changing late tonight as
PWATs increase to 2.0 to 2.3 inches in response to a weak
disturbance/warm front moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers may begin to form around the coast after midnight, then
expanding inland towards Houston after sunrise. Tomorrow will be a
bit warmer than today with highs getting into the mid 80s in
Houston. Convective temperature is looking to be in the mid 80s
tomorrow, so some afternoon thunderstorms are possible. The threat
of precipitation decreases after sunset.



.LONG TERM [Monday night Through Sunday]...

A majority of the area is dry Monday night as the warm front moves north
and out of our area. With south winds in place, look for overnight lows
generally in the low to mid 70s. Warm S to SW winds on Tuesday will
boost afternoon highs into a mid 80s to low 90s range, and this heat
will allow for increasing rain chances (especially across north and
northeast areas). These elevated rain chances will continue overnight
and on into Wednesday morning and spread into central and southern areas
as the next cold front moves on through and starts to cool us back down.
Some rains could linger near the coast and offshore in the morning,
and most of the area will see afternoon highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Mostly dry weather looks to prevail for much of the area for the
remainder of the week with high pressure building in behind the front.
Wednesday night and Thursday night should be the coolest our area will
be during the week (50s inland, 60s coast), and warmer daytime highs
come back beginning on Friday as the high works its way off to the
east and allows for southeast winds to eventually return. Rising rain
chances and warm temperatures are currently in the forecast for next
weekend as moisture levels increase with persistent/strengthening
onshore winds. Currently looking at cooler temperatures to arrive
here once again around the start of next week with the passage of
the next cold front. 42


.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Radar is showing a nice fine line indicating the sea breeze
moving inland this evening. This has allowed for KHOU/KLBX and
KGLS to have a SE wind direction but really no other impacts.
Ceilings should remain VFR through 06Z tonight. 06Z to 12Z Monday
morning ceiling should decrease to MVFR levels for KGLS and KLBX
with the approaching warm front along the coast. After 12Z
ceilings continue to decrease with an increase in SH and TS
activity. Hi- res models really hitting the Houston terminals in
the 18Z to 22Z time frame so will keep VCTS for that period. This
is about the time the warm front reaches the Houston area with a
short wave trough moving through the area. We might need to go
with a prevailing TS if model trends continue to be consistent
from run to run. Ceilings should improve but may need to watch for
MVFR conditions again tomorrow night.




Surface high pressure to the north is producing light easterly flow
today, but this high will drift away from the area tonight
resulting in a more southeasterly flow tonight and becoming
southerly tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
late tonight and into the day tomorrow as a warm front pushes
northward. Southerly flow becomes more moderate on Tuesday ahead of
a low pressure system deepening over the Rockies. The associated
cold front from this system will push through on Wednesday with
increased northerly flow post front Wednesday night into Thursday.
Winds may be strong enough to warrant a SCEC Wednesday night into




College Station (CLL)  67  85  71  90  64 /  20  60  20  60  60
Houston (IAH)          69  84  74  88  71 /  20  50  10  60  60
Galveston (GLS)        76  84  80  86  76 /  60  60  20  30  60






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