205
FXUS64 KHGX 141944
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
244 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Hot, summer-like weather should continue over the next few days,
courtesy of a mid/upper level ridge currently near Mexico and the
western Gulf of America. A 850mb low/trough to the west with high
pressure to the east has established a weak LLJ today, only in the
range of 20 to 30 knots out of the the southwest. HREF places mean
850mb T advection broadly at 1-2 K/HR with mostly clear skies and
dewpoints mixing into the 60s this afternoon. NAEFS has 850mb temps
over the 99.5th climatological percentile for this time of the year,
with the ECMWF EFI at 0.5-0.99 and SoT > 0 in spots. Spatially, the
signals for heat stress are broadly strongest further northwest. The
Heat Risk threat is currently high (level 4/5) for today,
highlighting the anomalous warmth for this time of the year
(typically in the mid/upper 80s) though WBGT values suggest high
heat stress to be more focused over the northwestern counties. With
this in mind, Heat Advisory remains in effect through through 7 PM
tonight for areas across the Brazos Valley.

Thursday broadly looks the same with only some specific differences
to note. 500mb Heights rise slightly as the center of the midlevel
high shifts over the western Gulf of America. The 850mb low/trough
pushes eastward, tightening the pressure gradient and strengthening
the LLJ to 30-45 knots. While 850mb temperatures are forecasted to
be slightly weaker (NAEFS 850mb T above the 97.5th percentile), the
strengthened LLJ should amplify WAA, with the HREF showing temp
advection reaching 1.3-4.0 K/hr at times. HREF dewpoints suggest
slightly less mixing, perhaps as a result of the strong temperature
advection invigorating the cap/amplifying subsidence, though drier
air underneath the cap and the strengthened LLJ would suggest that
dewpoints still mix into the 60s during the afternoon.

In layman`s terms, it`s going to be hot with highs in the upper 80s
to upper 90s during the afternoon with morning lows in the mid/lower
70s. The tricker question remains just how dangerous this heat is.
As already mentioned, these temperatures are very warm for this time
of the year, and early-season heat can be especially stressful since
the body needs time to get acclimated to hot summer temperatures. At
the same time, dewpoints mixing out during the afternoon with gusty
winds should alleviate the effects of heat. For this reason, I`ve
opted to hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Thursday.

As a reminder, heat is still the #1 weather-related killer in the
U.S. With climatological summer approaching, practicing good heat
safety will be important for those planning to spend extend amounts
of time outside. Drink plenty of fluids and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day. Wear lightweight and
loose fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

SE Texas will find itself under the influence of a large, deep
subtropical ridge through the duration of the long term forecast
period. Thus, the hot pattern that is blessing us with its
presence in the short term will continue into the long term.
Though the ridge will be relatively well stacked, the center of
the ridging is expected to be farther east in the lower levels,
allowing for continued deep LL southeasterly flow from the Gulf.
This will keep conditions relatively humid. So expect more
afternoons in the 90s with heat index values over 100. Coastal
areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s. Area-wide overnight
lows will generally be in the 70s.

In terms of hazardous heat, the primary concern is near the
beginning of the long term, where high temperatures coupled with
high humidity and lower winds will likely enhance the risk
associated with the heat. As we head into early next week,
subtle changes in the LL pattern may result in increasing
southeasterly winds, which would reduce (though not eliminate) the
heat`s associated health risk. Regardless, the long term is very
hot, especially for May. PLEASE remember to practice heat safety
precautions.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions and gusty south/southwest winds are expected
throughout the rest of the daytime. Wind gusts should diminish
this evening with MVFR CIGS slowly filling in from the coast
overnight into Thursday. During this time frame, a low level jet
will strengthen, bringing wind shear from strong southwest winds
of 35-45 knots around 2000 feet. This jet & wind shear will be
most prominent over the northern TAF sites, though wind shear
groups may be expanded to include southern terminals. Gusty winds
resume Thursday morning as CIGS clear and wind shear weakens.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

South to south-southeast winds are expected to increase again
overnight and into Thursday morning. Gusts over 30 knots will be
possible once again. These winds are expected to decrease somewhat
again as we head into Thursday afternoon, with a Small Craft
Advisory in effect through Thursday. That being said, hazardous
winds and especially seas may continue into Friday. Winds and seas
should decrease on Friday into Saturday as the gradient eases. The
gradient may steepen again early next week, bringing another
chance of increasing southeast winds and seas.

Self

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Monday (May 19th).

May 14th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 93F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 93F (1961)
- Palacios: 91F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2024)

May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)

May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)

May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  96  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  86  77  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-195>198.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from Thursday afternoon
     through Thursday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self