Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 162306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Typical summer wind pattern, light/variable at night, becoming
onshore 5 to 10 knots in the morning, increasing gusts near the
coast in the afternoon with the seabreeze. VFR throughout for
most, but do have light mentions at the foggy spots CXO, SGR, and
LBX with isolated/patchy fog potential should winds go calm.


.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 334 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow/Tuesday Night]...

With the mid/upper level ridge building back over the state from the
W/SW...the very low rain chances we`ve had over these couple of days
or so should lower even more. This somewhat flat ridging is expected
to remain in place through mid week. And when coupled with a persis-
tent light to moderate onshore flow, we`ll likely continue with this
very warm/humid weather pattern for the short term. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night are going to range from the lower to mid 70s for most
inland locations to the upper 70s at the beaches. Highs tomorrow are
forecast to be in the mid 90s for areas generally along and north of
I-10...lower 90s to upper 80s south to the coast. 41

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

A flattening mid-upper level ridge during the second half of the week
is still expected to help to bring impulses/disturbances closer to the
area. Eventually (probably not until maybe late on Friday or Friday
evening/night) we`ll be able to see some shower and thunderstorm activity
that develops to our west move into our area. The next feature that
should help to generate more rain for parts of the area will be a cold
front over the weekend. This boundary and the possibility of additional
disturbances should help to increase area shower and thunderstorms chances,
but figuring out the best timing and location of these storms this far
out is difficult. Enough instability looks to remain in place for continuing
some rain chances into the start of next week. Little change in the
temperatures (highs mainly in the low to mid 90s and lows mainly in
the low to mid 70s) is anticipated until the weekend when the increase
in cloud cover and rain chances and the frontal passage should drop
these numbers.



Light to occasionally moderate south and southwest winds will persist
through Tuesday night. Strengthening south to southeast winds and building
seas can be expected for the second half of the week as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten. Caution flags are likely and advisories
might be needed. A slightly weaker southeast to east flow and lowering
seas are currently anticipated over the weekend as a cold front moves
into the area. Look for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances with
this front.



Some temperature records have the potential to be tied or broken over
the next couple of days. Record highs and record high mins are...

CLL:  Tue - record high 96/1925 and record high min 77 in 1995
      Wed - record high 96/1925 and record high min 76 in 2019

IAH:  Tue - record high 96/2018 and record high min 79 in 1995
      Wed - record high 95/1890 and record high min 78 in 2017

HOU:  Tue - record high 94/2018 and record high min 77 in 1995
      Wed - record high 93/2003 and record high min 77 in 2019

GLS:  Tue - record high 90/2020 and record high min 79 in 2017
      Wed - record high 89/1875 and record high min 80 in 1995




College Station (CLL)  71  96  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          73  94  73  93  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        78  88  79  88  80 /   0   0   0   0   0






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