530
FXUS64 KHGX 181713
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Today we will remain sandwiched between a surface low pressure
system on the lee side of the Rockies and a high pressure system
centered over the SE CONUS. This will result in a tight pressure
gradient for today and will produce sustained winds of 15-25 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph. Due to this, a Wind Advisory will be in
effect for today, and has been expanded to include all of SE
Texas. Clouds will increase today as the result of a moisture
increase brought on by onshore winds.

The aforementioned low pressure will track eastward across the
Great Plains and eject a cold front through Southeast Texas. While
moisture will generally be pretty lacking, there may be pockets
of PWAT values around the 1.2" range that could squeeze out an
isolated shower or two as the front passes through the area. The
environment will be very stable; however, isentropic lifting at
the 295K level may help to support these isolated showers.

FROPA timing looks to be Wednesday morning for the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods and moving offshore around the
afternoon/evening hours of Wednesday. Dry cool air will funnel in
from behind. This dry air will tank relative humidity values into
the teens to upper 20s across the area. Along with low RH values,
winds will remain elevated behind the front. SPC has placed areas
along and west of I- 45 in a risk for Elevated Fire Weather
Conditions. Because of this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for Wednesday afternoon into the evening for locations west of
I-45.

Temperatures for today will be in the 70s to low 80s. Tonight`s
lows will drop into the 60s area wide. With the FROPA expected
later in the day for the coastal areas, there should be time to
heat up into the upper 70s to low 80s. For the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods, highs are projected to reach the low to mid 70s. Cool
NW winds on Wednesday night into Thursday morning will drop lows
into the 40s to low 50s.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Tranquil weather conditions are expected on Thursday as high
pressure moves across Southeast TX. The one concern for Thursday,
however, is the continued potential for elevated to critical fire
weather conditions, due to the combination of very dry air (PWs
less than 0.25 inches) and gusty northerly winds in place. A Fire
Weather Watch may be issued for Thursday. Otherwise, expect a
beautiful spring day on Thursday with slightly breezy conditions,
sunny skies, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the
lower to mid 40s over areas north of I-10, the mid 40s to lower
50s along and south of I-10, and the upper 50s along the coasts.

Enjoy the springtime weather on Thursday while you can because
conditions will steadily become warmer Friday into the upcoming
weekend as high pressure exits to our east Thursday night and
southerly flow returns by Friday morning. Breezy conditions are
once again expected Friday as the pressure gradient tightens in
response to being wedged between high pressure over Southeast
CONUS and a cold front moving into Central TX. Wind speeds of 15
to 20 mph are possible along with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Tranquil
but warmer conditions are anticipated this weekend with highs in
lower to mid 80s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. Rain
chances may return Sunday as moisture and instability increases
ahead of a cold front progged to move across Southeast TX sometime
late Sunday or early Monday. There`s the potential for our highs
to drop back into the mid to upper 70s on Monday, but will
ultimately depend on how far south the dry cooler air mass moves.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

South winds 15-30kt will continue today and also into the
overnight hours. Scattered VFR cloud cover may transition into
some MVFR decks toward 6z...but there`s a mixed bag of guidance
possibilities ranging from 1700-3500ft. Wind speeds should begin
to taper downward 8-10z as a prefrontal trof/dryline makes its way
toward the area. May see a few insignificant showers develop from
Hobby southward in the 11-15z time period. Winds will gradually
veer from the sw around sunrise, to w mid-morning then, nw by
early afternoon with clearing skies. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate today as onshore
flow continues to strengthen and seas rise ahead of the upcoming
cold front. Winds of 20-25 KTS and gusts to around 30 KTS and seas
of 6-9 feet can be expected. Small Craft Advisories for the bays
and Gulf waters will be in effect through Wednesday morning. In
addition, rough surf, elevated water levels along the bays and
coasts, and strong rip currents are expected.

The cold front is expected to move across Southeast TX Wednesday
morning, possibly pushing off the coast late morning or early
afternoon. Expect Advisories to continue as strong offshore flow
and elevated seas (5 to 9 feet) develops in the wake of the front
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Gusts up to Gale strength
are possible. Low water levels in and near the bays are also
possible. Winds will relax Thursday afternoon and seas will
gradually subside a few hours later. Light to moderate onshore
flow and seas of 3-5 feet returns Friday and continues through the
upcoming weekend.

Cotto

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Strong southerly winds are anticipated Tuesday (15-25g35mph), so
use caution with outdoor burning. Red Flag Warning criteria won`t
be met with RH`s in the 40-45% range north of I-10, and 45-65%
further south during the afternoon hours. Winds will remain
elevated behind a cold front Wednesday afternoon. RH values will
drop into the teens and upper 20s in the wake of the front;
therefore, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Wednesday
afternoon. Will need to monitor these trends and may need to
consider a Red Flag Warning for Wednesday. Continue to use caution
if you plan to do any outdoor burning on Wednesday.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  62  77  44 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  66  79  50 /   0  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  66  76  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235-236-335.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cotto