713
FXUS62 KILM 090525
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather is expected for the first half of this
week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
Humidity and rain chances will both increase from Thursday into
Friday as moisture arrives from the southeast ahead of a
likely tropical cyclone on the Gulf coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the previous forecast. 6z aviation
discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
An impulse moving along a stalled front off the coast will continue
the chance for showers overnight into early Monday before high
pressure begins ridging into the area from the north, resulting in
decreasing clouds.  The main chances for showers will be along the
coast, particularly southern areas.  Lows tonight will fall to the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland with highs Monday in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As deep mid-upper troughing over the Northeast US translates
eastward, remarkably dry air will pay a visit to the Carolinas
with precipitable water values expected to hold in the 0.5-1"
range through the period. Subsiding air on the backside of the
trough will make for a sunny and pleasant Tuesday with highs in
the low-mid 80s after morning lows ranging from the mid-50s
well-inland to low 60s near the coast. With dew points in the
mid-upper 50s, it will feel unusually dry outside. Surface high
pressure to our north will keep a northeasterly flow in place
through Tuesday before it shifts to the upper Mid-Atlantic
coast early on Wednesday.

Despite easterly winds near the surface and building ridging
aloft, overall temperature and moisture changes should be minor
as extremely dry air aloft and continued subsidence act to mix
out higher dew points streaming off the warm Atlantic.
Nevertheless, higher dew points reaching back into the low 60s
should be noticeable at the coast. Morning lows on Wednesday
will end up a little warmer than Tuesday, ranging from the upper
50s well-inland to mid 60s near the coast. Daytime highs should
nudge a degree or two higher than Tuesday, mainly in the middle
80s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Uncertainty remains high in the long term as the evolution of an
anticipated tropical cyclone in the western Gulf of Mexico will
influence our weather potentially through the weekend and
beyond. On Thursday and Friday, the system is expected to be
pulled northward between a powerful trough over the Pacific NW
and ridging over the Atlantic. However, the trough is expected
to pivot up into southwestern Canada while ridging strengthens
north of the system over the Great Lakes region. This will
cause the circulation to slow down and likely stall somewhere
in the Mississippi River Valley, but where remains a question.

Closer to home, warm/moist advection and isentropic upglide
over a stalled front extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico
to off the Southeast US coast will bring substantial moisture
into play and enhanced cloudiness across the Southeast.
However, strong high pressure northeast of the system should
keep it and the stalled front from advancing much over the
weekend and keep our low-level flow out of the east or
southeast. Thus, this brings into question just how much rain
could occur. QPF cluster analysis of ensemble guidance suggests
that the most likely solution at this time is generally light
rain accumulations of less than a half inch on any given day,
with an alternative possibility of rainfall accumulations
reaching 1-2" in 24 hrs on Friday and Saturday. Overall, with
the front expected to stay well to our south, heavy tropical
rains are not expected to reach this far north. However, an
extended period of cloudy skies and intermittent rain may be in
order through much of this period.

In light of the cloud cover and possible rain, temperatures are
expected to stay near or below normal, mainly in the low 80s
for highs while nighttime lows dip into the mid-60s to around
70F. If any given day features persistent rains, then highs may
not reach 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Mid-level clouds (scattered inland and overcast along the
coast) will continue to move offshore through this morning
followed by clear skies. Winds out of the north-northeast
throughout TAF period with gusts around 15 kts at coastal
terminals early today.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate through middle of the week
with high pressure prevailing from the north. Increased risk for
restrictions later in the period as moisture increases due to
an offshore trough and storm system to the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
Expect NE winds at 15 to 20 KT with higher gusts. Seas will run
3 to 5 FT. NO SCA attm but there is potential Monday if winds
are a little stronger than currently forecast.

Monday night through Thursday night...
High pressure will remain across the Mid Atlantic states for
Monday through Tuesday before moving slowly offshore on
Wednesday and Thursday. This will keep persistent northeast to
ENE winds in the range of mainly 15-20 kts through the period.
Wave heights in the 3-4 ft range (except 2-3 ft off the
Brunswick County coast with the protection afforded by Cape
Fear) are expected through Wednesday. The expected strengthening
and northward progress of a tropical system in the western Gulf
is expected to elevate winds slightly and enhance seas from
Wednesday night through the end of the week. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible from early Thursday morning onward
due to seas reaching around 6 ft while occasional gusts up to
25 kts will be possible.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ABW/31