Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 132213
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
613 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of
the week keeping temperatures below normal. More seasonable
weather sets up early next week as the high progresses offshore
and winds are allowed to turn more southerly.

&&

.UPDATE/...

No changes of note for the early evening updates, clear, cool,
gradually dwindling wind, remaining highest near the ocean.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Stationary front with associated surface low north of Bermuda
will gradually move south away from the area. Meanwhile, an
upper trough sweeps through the eastern U.S., but carries very
little moisture with it. Surface high pressure slides east into
the Ohio River Valley, which helps promote a dry forecast
through the near term period.

Decent radiational cooling sets up in the inversion tonight,
allowing for lows in the mid 40s inland, and lower 50s at the
beaches. Some of the cold inland spots in southeast NC could go
as low as 40. Northeasterly flow continues through Friday,
with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Atmosphere continues to dry
out as the cold pool settles in aloft, but there still seems to
be just enough to possibly provide some cumulus clouds for the
more inland areas. Winds veer slightly to become more easterly
by Friday evening, with lows rebounding a little bit to the
upper 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A stellar weekend upcoming as payback from yesterday`s gloomy
winter- like wedge. Cool high pressure builds into the area on
Saturday with temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows
around a crisp 50 degrees on Saturday and Sunday morning. High
pressure begins to meander off the SE VA coast on Sunday, but
will maintain clear skies and pleasant weather over our forecast
area with slight moderation into the upper-70s on Sunday
afternoon. High pressure continues to push further offshore on
Sunday evening as a warm front lifts northward well to our west.
The area will remain dry on Sunday night into Monday morning
with overnight lows warming into the upper 50s as low-level
moisture starts to return.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide offshore of the Northeastern US coast
on Monday as a weak warm front pushes northward into the
western NC/TN mountains. Rain chances associated with the front
seem unlikely in our area, and have removed PoPs entirely on
Monday. An upper-level shortwave will lead to the development of
a surface low over the Delmarva region on Monday night into
Tuesday. This low will push a front through the area on Tuesday.
Have kept rain chances around a slight chance as models keep
the system well offshore (nearly due SE of Delaware Bay).
Limited instability also exists on Tuesday, but could see an
isolated convective shower or isolated rumble of thunder as
temperatures climb into the lower 80s. Mid-level ridging builds
into the area on Wednesday with surface high pressure returning
through late next week and potentially into next weekend.
Temperatures will hover around climo through the long-term with
upper 70s to near 80 on Monday slowly moderating to mid-80s by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate for the next 24 hours. Breezy
northeast winds, with gusts 20 to 25 kt at times, will continue
to be the only weather or note. Clear skies overnight, but low
level winds and very dry air will prevent any fog.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday Night... Northeasterly winds continue throughout
the period, with sustained speeds in the 15-20kts range with
gusts as high as 25kts. Seas along the coast at 2-3ft increase
to 5-6ft out 20nm from shore through early Friday afternoon.
This has prompted an extension of the Small Craft Advisory,
valid from now through 2 PM EDT Friday afternoon. Seas stay
consistent at the coast but drop to around 4ft over the open
waters. Winds decrease to 10-15kts and back slightly to the NNE
by Friday evening.

Saturday through Tuesday... High pressure nearly overhead on
Saturday and Sunday will keep winds around 10 knots, varying in
direction from NE to easterly. Light easterlies will slowly
transition to a more SE direction through Monday with seas
generally around 2 feet. A weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Monday night and Tuesday. The gradient
associated with this system will be weak and at the moment, we
are only expecting winds out of the S and SE around 10-15 knots
late Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...IGB/21


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