Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 041302
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
902 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the south will begin to fuel scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday. A cold front will cross the
coast late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler air into the region
Monday and Tuesday, with lower chances for showers and storms.
Rain chances increase by midweek as temperatures rise.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Slowly, a vast plume of moisture rich air to spread north as seen
from recent precipitable water sensors mounted aboard satellite,
with 2 inch values creeping north of the Florida-Georgia line. This
in time to set the stage increasing convection chances as diurnal
convergence processes and moisture begin to work in concert. For
today not much, maybe a sea breeze shower along the NE SC border.

Tonight however, showers and isolated TSTMs will spread north into
the Cape Fear region after midnight, as a PWAT plume impinges the
coast and diurnal instability increases over the waters, offering
measurable rain chances for eastern zones 4am-9am, followed by
inland differential heating and possible outflows, to set off inland
convection after midday Friday. The clouds and moisture will keep
min-T above average, holding at 70 or above most locations early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure will maintain a moist, south-southwest flow
across the area through the period. Dewpoints will hover in the
lower 70s, fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms which are
expected to be ongoing during the evening. With the loss of heating,
convection over land will gradually wane with some redevelopment off
the coast late. High temperatures Saturday will rise to near 90 away
from the coast, resulting in strong surface-based instability, and
showers and storms are expected to begin developing perhaps as early
as mid-morning. This activity will decrease in coverage with the
loss of heating Saturday evening. A frontal boundary will be
dropping south across NC late Saturday night and will be on the
doorstep by sunrise Sunday and depending on location and timing, may
fire off a few showers or storms in the predawn hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The frontal boundary will slip into the CWA Sunday and looks to
linger across the area into Sunday night. Mid-level air will be
significantly drier, and this should limit convection. It looks as
though the front will eventually slide just south of the area by
Monday, and a mid and upper-level ridge axis will transition
overhead as the tropical system (or remnants) makes its way up the
Mississippi River valley. Associated subsidence and dry air aloft
will keep any convection widely scattered Monday-Tuesday, but
activity will increase Wednesday as the frontal boundary returns
northward.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR throughout most of the 12Z TAF period. Moderate SSW winds
today, gusting to 20 knots at times in mid and late afternoon.
Moisture increasing from the south will help bring VCSH late in
TAF cycle, particularly through the Cape Fear region. This turns
into -SHRA spreading north through the end of the TAF cycle.
Isolated thunderstorms near NE SC aft 00z, with scattered -SHRA
00-06Z. Calmer winds and moistening low levels to the north and
west could promote fog/low stratus potential, so went with IFR
ceilings/visibilities in the pre-dawn hours of Friday for KFLO
and KLBT.

Extended Outlook...Increasing moisture will bring thunderstorms by
Friday through mid week with varying flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Improvement upcoming, as SW winds ease, in response to dissipation
of an inland surface trough. Bermuda high pressure will maintain SW
winds through the weekend, of moderate, sub-advisory strength. SSW
waves 3-4 feet every 5 seconds will dominate the wave spectrum, so
although overall improvement will be seen, bumpy conditions should
be expected due to the short-period nature of the local wind-seas.
Increasing moisture from the south will begin to add a few TSTMs to
the marine landscape, and mariners are encouraged to obtain a radar
check before venturing out.

SSW flow around Bermuda high pressure will be around 15 kt Friday
night, increasing towards 20 kt and becoming more WSW Saturday
afternoon and night as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of a
frontal boundary. Seas will be dominated by a 3 ft SSW wind wave
with a period of about 6 seconds Friday night through Saturday
night. Winds will diminish somewhat on Sunday and Sunday night as
the gradient slackens in the proximity of the front. By early
Monday, the front should be just south of the waters with onshore
flow of around 15 kt and seas 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With full moon approaching Friday, minor flooding is forecasted
for the Downtown Wilmington Cape Fear River location with each
evening high tide this week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MJC/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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