Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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721
FXUS62 KILM 161351
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
951 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will filter in behind a departing front through the
end of the week, with only isolated convection possible closer
to the coast on Wednesday. Moisture returns later in the
weekend through early next week, leading to increasing shower
and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
The frontal boundary is located well offshore to cross the coast
well to the south between CHS and SAV. The deep moisture is
around a half an inch less today and models are only indicating
a isolated (20%) thunderstorm. The best chance will be along the
immediate coast from MYR southward. No other changes this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms yesterday
has pushed offshore and is expected to oscillate closer to shore
again today ahead of another cold front pushing into the coastal
Carolinas from the northwest. Weak high pressure will bring mostly
clear skies, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm with the
surface frontal boundaries may occur near coastal communities later
this afternoon/evening. High pressure over the area will bring
mostly dry weather again Thursday with a remote chance for an
isolated shower or storm in southeast NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough will swing farther off shore with height
rises as ridge extends up through the Southeast, flattening out
into the weekend. Overall, expect plenty of dry air and
subsidence with no pcp expected. Pcp water values less than an
inch will begin to creep back up above an inch by late Fri as we
begin to tap into Gulf moisture as high pressure shifts farther
off the NC coast. Dewpoint temps will recover from down near 60
late Thurs back up near 70 by Sat morning. This will bring
overnight lows from the low 60s Fri night back up near 70
overnight Fri. High temps on Fri will warm to around 90 most
places with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure offshore will maintain a warm and moist southerly
return flow at the surface with a flatter more zonal flow aloft.
Looks like Piedmont trough becomes more pronounced on Saturday
as a front gets strung out over VA/NC border and low pressure
system, possibly next tropical system, in the western Gulf
begins to lift north. The local forecast area should remain out
of the influence of these systems for the most part on Saturday
with very warm temps, thanks to decent downslope flow and plenty
of sunshine. The 850 temps will reach up near 20c by Sat aftn.
The winds back to the SW through early next week drawing
increasing moisture from the Gulf. The column will moisten from
the top down with increasing mid to high clouds through Sunday
and increasing chc of rain as pcp water values reach back up
near or above 2 inches late Sun into Mon. Overall, remnants from
the possible tropical system followed by a front will lead to
increasing chc of shwrs/tstms Mon into Tues. Temps should be
well into the 80s to near 90 for highs Sun through Tues, but
will be dampened by increasing clouds and pcp. Overnight lows
will be running above normal in increasing moisture and clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fairly high confidence for VFR conditions. A slightly cooler and
drier airmass through the forecast period. Light northerly flow
this morning will be replace with a southerly resultant this
afternoon at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Drying trend expected through the remainder
of the week due to high pressure. Convection returns Sun with
periodic MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday:Seas 3 to 4 feet mainly from the south at 6
seconds with east swell from the remnants of Bill around 10
seconds over the next 24 hours. Seas lessen to 2 to 3 feet
Thursday. Winds will be highly variable as a front lingers over
the coastal waters, but speeds should stay at 10 kts or less
with gusts at 15 kts or less.

Thursday night through Sunday:Mid to upper trough will slip
farther off the coast dragging weak area of low pressure farther
offshore into Fri morning. This will maintain a northerly flow
over the waters until high pressure moves off the Carolina coast
moving farther offshore on Fri. This will kick winds around to
the S into the weekend, veering to a more SW-W direction as
Piedmont trough/front gets strung out to the north. A
strengthening gradient will push winds to 15 kts Saturday, and
potentially 15-20 kts Sunday. No significant chance of precip
Fri into Sat with increasing chc on Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/RGZ



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