Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 300724
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
324 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system tracking across the southeast US will
push across the Carolinas Tuesday into Tuesday night before
moving out to sea during the day on Wednesday. High pressure
will bring below normal temperatures mid to late week ahead of
the next frontal passage expected next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
West/northwest winds behind a weak frontal passage yesterday evening
will bring slightly cooler temperatures today with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is between 5 and 10 degrees
above normal for late March.  Upper level ridge that brought an
unseasonably warm weekend will weaken today into Tuesday as the next
atmospheric disturbance approaches for chances of rain Tuesday.
Latest forecast models have low pressure system tracking just to the
south of the region, which will keep warmer and unstable air just
beyond the forecast area.  Moderate to heavy rainfall can be
expected at times in heavier showers, but no thunderstorms are
anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will move off the coast Tuesday night and out to
sea Wednesday. This will bring about an end to the rain Tuesday
night into Wednesday with decreasing clouds during Wednesday.
Skies will clear Wednesday night. Temperatures will be at or
below normal during this period with lows Tuesday night in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s with lows Wednesday night in the lower to middle
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will provide fair weather Thursday and Friday
before another front affects the area over the weekend. Rain
chances in model guidance tonight look less impressive for
Saturday and Sunday but there do remain small chances for rain.
Temperatures through there period will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and lows in the upper
40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR for area terminals for the next 24 hours with light variable
surface winds mainly out of the southwest to west direction.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through Friday. Exception,
flight restrictions are possible Mon night thru early Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Significant wave heights on the order of 1 to 2 feet from the
southwest at 6 seconds for the next 24 hours with relatively benign
conditions.  Chances for rain increase as a low pressure system
approaches Tuesday with increasing southwest winds between 15 and 20
kts and gusts to 25 kts at times with seas approaching between 3 and
5 feet.

Low pressure moving through the area Tuesday night and out to
sea Wednesday could bring about winds at or above 25 KT Tuesday
night with gale force winds a possibility. A small craft
advisory or gale watch or warning may be required in later
forecasts for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Winds will diminish to 15 to 20 KT during Wednesday and further
decrease to 10 KT by Thursday and continue into Friday.
Directions will be NE Tue night before becoming N to NW
Wednesday and continuing for the remainder of the week. Seas of
4 to 6 FT Tuesday night will subside to 2 to 3 FT by Thursday
and continue into Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...ILM



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