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000
FXUS62 KILM 050328
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1128 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through
Monday. A brief warmup Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by
a slow- moving cold front which will bring our next chance for
rain during the midweek period. A slight cooldown arrives behind
this cold front for late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Coastal Flood Advisory for the area beaches has expired, but
ongoing flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
including Downtown Wilmington through 2 AM EDT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pesky low clouds have remained trapped below an inversion much of
the day but clearing is working in from the northeast.  Forecast
reflects the expectation that the low clouds will lift between now
and sunset but there remains the possibility of redevelopment
overnight if this doesn`t occur. Greatest potential of low clouds
lingering into the overnight is over the southern and western areas.
Much of Monday should be mainly sunny after the morning inversion
lifts. Lows tonight will fall well below normal into the low to
mid 50s with highs Monday staying below normal in the upper 70s
near the coast to the lower 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level cyclonic flow will be in place across the
area through the short term period with a somewhat muted surface
pattern in place. This type of set up is seemingly always challenged
for deep moisture/convection but there is enough to warrant chance
pops mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The activity
Tuesday looks more NE sea breeze oriented then pushing off the coast
perhaps similar to last Friday while a more synoptic based front
makes an appearance Wednesday. Overall highs and lows should net
near normal but more specifically a little cooler on the lows and
warmer on the highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern established during the mid week period
of a baroclinic zone draped west to east across the area will
continue to bring chance pops Thursday decreasing Friday. A potent
shortwave embedded in the overall synoptic cyclonic flow will push
the front well to the south setting up...at least at this point a
dry and very comfortable weekend. In fact the cool push begins late
Thursday with lows several mornings dropping to near 60 and highs in
the lower to middle 80s with maybe an increase late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC for the
00Z TAF period as high pressure builds from the north bringing
drier low-level air to the region. Slightly elevated N/NE winds
will diminish and veer to SW/W inland and S/SE near the coast
Monday.

Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR conditions are expected later
Monday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
NE winds of 20 to 25 KT w/ some higher gusts will diminish later
overnight, falling to 10 to 15 KT for Monday. Seas of 4 to 7 FT
will slowly subside through the period but stay at least 6 ft
through around daybreak when the Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through.

Monday Night through Friday...
A southwest flow will be in place through mid week or so.
Overall speeds should be in a range of 10-15 knots with an interval
of stronger speeds possible overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The flow will acquire a more westerly component Wednesday then
transition to more of a NE flow later in the week as a front pushes
south. In regards to significant seas, a range of 2-4 feet will
mostly be in place higher of course late Tuesday and Wednesday with
the stronger winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tides surrounding this weekend`s full moon will continue
to produce decent coastal flooding at the beaches and along the
lower Cape Fear River around Wilmington during this evening`s
high tide cycle and likely again Monday night, possibly even
continuing Tuesday night along the lower Cape Fear River.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...