Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 220513
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
113 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms today and Monday. A cold front will slide through
the Carolinas Monday and stall to our south Tuesday, bringing
temporarily cooler temperatures. Another front should arrive
from the west late Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
What little convection remains this evening is quickly winding
down with the loss of heating. Within the next hour all showers
will have ended. The tricky part of the forecast remains the
activity currently just off the GA/SC coast. Another wave riding
up the west side of the ridge is responsible for this batch of
showers and thunderstorms. This wave will encounter a less
"convection friendly" environment as it moves farther north, but
much of the high resolution guidance depicts at least a few
showers and thunderstorms spreading over the nearshore waters
late tonight. The 700/500 mb vorticity fields show this feature
fairly well and the bulk of the guidance keeps everything off
the SC coast and just brushes the NC coast, mainly coastal New
Hanover. Have adjusted pop overnight to match this thinking,
although previous forecast was also along these lines. Only
minor adjustments to time/location were needed for the update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area remains on the western periphery of ridge of high pressure
located off the Southeast coast. Best convergence and upper level
support around periphery of ridge will focus convection mainly up
through SC and Pee Dee region into early this evening. Mid to high
level debris clouds from convection to the south and west will
linger into the overnight hours. The deep southerly flow will begin
to shift to a more SW direction into Sunday as position of high
offshore shifts a bit south and east and mid to upper trough and
front approaches the Carolinas from the west. This will continue to
stream moisture from the south. Also may see some spotty shwrs
affect the area overnight into early Sunday as another impulse moves
around the periphery of the high. The clouds and moisture should
keep overnight lows on the high side...closer to 70. Overall, a very
moist air mass in place with potential for localized convection Sun
aftn with steering flow directing storms and debris clouds off to
the E-NE. Models show Piedmont trough getting pushed eastward, but
any convection associated with that should dissipate into early
evening as it approaches our western boundaries. Highs on Sunday
will be close to 90 most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves through the area this period, stalling offshore by
Monday night. Clouds increase Sunday night, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s. Confidence continues to increase for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front Monday. A couple of these storms
could be strong at times, with MLCAPE possibly hitting 2000J/kg
again, along with some decent low level lapse rates and shear. This
would produce some strong wind gusts and hail. The strong stuff
should taper off as the front pushes offshore by Monday night.

Clouds and rain keep high temperatures in the upper 80s across the
area, as opposed to the 90s we`ve been seeing recently. Slightly
cooler air comes into the area Monday night, with lows in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak, late season cold air damming (CAD) wedge tries to set up
Tuesday, allowing for a brief cooldown. Highs Tuesday may struggle
to hit 80. Stalled frontal boundary offshore and Piedmont trough
inland provide some chances for some overrunning, where chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, though not as
widespread as the day before.

By Wednesday, another low shoots out of ArkLaTex and rockets
northward towards the Great Lakes region. Flow becomes more robust
out of the south, bringing more muggy Gulf and Caribbean moisture.
High temperatures shoot back up to the mid-to-upper 80s Wednesday
through Saturday. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
again in the picture Wednesday and Thursday, with the seabreeze and
Piedmont trough the likely culprits for lift. By Friday, another
cold front sweeps through, carrying some decent upper level support
with it. Rain and thunderstorm chances likely to increase at this
point. Front may stall offshore by next weekend, with the Bermuda
high slowing the progression. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24 hours with a
couple of exceptions. The first is the potential for ground fog
in the LBT vicinity. Observations are not currently available
from this site, but fog has been reported to the west at
Bennettsville, SC recently. The other potential problem is
scattered convective showers and isolated thunderstorms
anticipated to develop later today. Coverage is too low to
directly place in the TAFs at this time, however there is a 20
to 30 percent chance of impacts at KFLO and KLBT between 18z-
03z, and slightly lesser chances at the coast.

Extended Outlook...Increasing coverage of convective showers and
thunderstorms could cause impacts at local airports. The highest
potential should exist Monday as a front dips in from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Southerly flow around periphery of high pressure
offshore will continue through Sunday. The winds will shift from S-
SW to SW but will remain mainly in the 10 to 15 kt range. Should see
some gusts to 20 kt at times, especially Sun aftn in sea breeze
closer to the coast. A southeast swell up to 8 to 9 seconds will mix
in with shorter period wind wave. Seas will be basically remain 3 ft
or less.

Sunday Night through Thursday...WSW winds persist through Monday,
with occasional gusts to 20kts, as a cold front approaches the area.
Once the front reaches the area Monday night, winds shift to the ENE
through Wednesday morning, generally 10-15kts. Southerly flow kicks
back in by Wednesday afternoon, with gusts possibly reaching near
20kts by Thursday. Seas mostly 2-3ft this period, with a slight
increase near the end of the period to 2-4ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/IGB


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