Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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192
FXUS62 KILM 181933
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
333 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will push off the coast tonight, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms continuing into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm by
mid-week, and no precipitation is expected. A weakening cold front
will approach the region Thursday night, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere will interact with a
frontal boundary and warm, moist air over the area to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. The front will drop south through the area late tonight
into Sunday, reducing but not eliminating chances for rain for
Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s with highs Sunday in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will shift off the coast, and scattered showers
are possible along the coastal counties through midnight. Cool,
dry, high pressure will build over the area on Monday. Monday`s
high temperatures will be in the upper to lower 70s. Lows on
Sunday night will be in the upper 50s, and on Monday night, they
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the regions Tuesday through Thursday.
A cold front will move into the Carolinas on Thursday and to
the eastern half of the Carolinas on Friday. This front will
dissipate over the area on Saturday. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin Thursday afternoon, mainly west of
Interstate 95, before chances increase across the entire region
on Friday and Saturday.

As the week progresses, we can anticipate a gradual increase in
temperatures. On Tuesday, highs are expected to reach the lower
80s inland and the upper 70s along the beaches. This warming
trend will continue from Wednesday to Saturday, with highs
climbing to the mid- to upper 80s inland and the lower 80s at
the beaches. Low temperatures will slowly rise from the lower
60s Tuesday night to 67 to 70 degrees along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect terminals to be mainly VFR this afternoon, outside showers
and storms.  Beyond the next couple of hours, confidence in
SHRA/TSRA at individual terminals is low so forecasts contain
VCTS/VCSH to account for scattered convection expected to develop
this afternoon into this evening.  Overnight chances for rain will
subside but cigs are expected to become IFR aft 06Z and be slow to
lift at NE winds ensure after sunrise Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions will continue to
affect the area Sun afternoon into Sun night. VFR to then mainly
dominate thru Thu while high pressure takes more control.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Southwest winds to 10 KT or less will become
west late tonight and N to NE at 10 to 15 KT Sunday. Seas of 2
to 3 FT tonight will continue into Sunday.

Sunday Night Through Friday:
A cold front will shift east of the waters on Sunday night, and
high pressure will build over the waters through Thursday. On
Friday, a cold front will approach eastern North Carolina.

Winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots Sunday night
into Monday before the pressure gradient weakens by Monday
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Monday, with
the best chances in the waters south of Murrells Inlet,
highlighting the need for caution.

Seas are expected to increase to 2 to 4 feet on Sunday night
into Monday before diminishing to 2 feet by Thursday.

&&

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RH/31