Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280016
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
716 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is expected Sunday ahead of a cold front that
will bring rain Monday afternoon, as well as a cool mid week
period. Low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Mexico will lead
to more rain on Wednesday. High pressure on Thursday will be
followed by another chance of rain next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dewpoints rising into the 60s and a night of light winds and
fair radiational cooling should start to develop areas of fog
and low stratus later this evening. Models are not unanimous,
but generally point toward dense fog developing along the coast
and across Whiteville and Elizabethtown. No significant changes
were needed to the forecast, but I will closely monitor trends
for a marine dense fog advisory later this evening and maybe
even a preemptive dense fog advisory inland as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Near term looks mostly dry with temperatures running well above
climo. Warm front lifting north of the area today will stall
across central NC tonight and VA on Sun. Patches of mid and
upper level cloud around today will increase overnight. Sun
morning into early afternoon will likely feature more of these
high clouds, with some afternoon clearing as moisture aloft
shifts north. Only real chance for measurable rainfall appears
to be morning to early afternoon Sun. Weak convergence along the
sea breeze may be strong enough to overcome mid-level stable
layer, however dry air aloft will remain a significant hurdle.
Guidance has been trending down slightly with Sun afternoon pop
the last few runs. Best chances for any convection would be
along and north of the sea breeze inflection point in eastern
Brunswick county.

Forecast soundings late tonight and Sun morning do suggest
potential for fog and maybe even some light mist/drizzle. Not
going to add any POP to the overnight/Sun AM forecast, but
additional updates could see this added. The would be mainly
along the coast, if convergence ends up being stronger than
forecast.

Front stalled north of the area through Sun will start working
its way back south Sun night, but it will not make it into the
area before Mon morning, keeping Sun night dry with lows well
above climo.


High Temperature Records for February, 28th
-------------------------------------------
Wilmington, NC           85 (1962)
North Myrtle Beach, SC   83 (1962)
Florence, SC             84 (2011)
Lumberton, NC            84 (1997)

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front begins to push southward on Monday from the NW. Will
see isolated to scattered light showers across the area with
the front`s passage due to the relatively weak forcing in the
low-levels. Best chance of showers will be during the afternoon
and early evening. A couple of the mid-range models try to hang
on to the weak boundary after it pushes just offshore and this
could extend precip chances into the overnight hours. High
pressure builds into the area on Tuesday suppressing shower
activity associated with the now stationary front to our south.
A few of our southern counties may see an isolated shower or
two, but areas north of a line from Southport to Florence will
remain dry throughout the day. Temperatures will be much cooler
due to a combination of cold air advection and the continued
cloud cover; highs only reaching the lower 50s. On Tuesday
night, high pressure will push offshore as the front lifts
northward again bringing another chance for light showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Stationary front and upper-level shortwave will provide the
lift and convergence for the development of a low pressure
system off of the GA/SC coastline on Wednesday. Models differ by
a 100 miles or so on the location of this system and time will
tell if we see light showers or a more steady rain on Wednesday
afternoon. Regardless, expect an unsettled weather with
temperatures reaching the upper 50s. Low pressure clears the
area on Wednesday night and high pressure builds briefly on
Thursday allowing temperatures to jump into the lower 60s with
partly cloudy skies. The next system approaches our area during
the day on Friday. Models differ on the timing of this system
with the upper-low responsible for the disturbance becoming
cutoff from the primary flow on Thursday over the southern
Plains. GFS has showers beginning to spread over the area as
soon as Friday afternoon with the best chance of rain arriving
Friday night into early Saturday. ECMWF keeps the upper low at a
slower pace, bringing showers late Friday night through most of
Saturday. High pressure to our north should ensure a cold rain
regardless of the timing of the system as it quickly strengthens
off the NC/SC coastline.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions currently at all airports will begin to
deteriorate along the Grand Strand coastline between 02-04z
when MVFR to IFR visibility should begin to develop in fog. Fog
and low stratus is then expected to spread north into Wilmington
and Lumberton overnight, with possibly some IFR conditions in
Florence by daybreak. Fog and stratus should dissipate between
14-15z Sunday with VFR conditions and moderate southwest winds
10-12 knots gusting to 20 knots at times.

Extended Outlook...Aside from some potential for sea fog or low
stratus to affect the CRE or MYR airports Sunday night, mainly
VFR conditions are expected. A cold front will reach the area
Monday afternoon with potential MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday Night: Warm front has lifted northwest of the
waters, leaving weak high pressure and southerly flow in
control. Front will remain north of the waters through Sun
night, with weak gradient on west side of Bermuda High keeping
southerly winds 10 to 15 kt through Sun. Gradient does tighten
up Sun night as the front starts to move south, increasing
southwest winds to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft this afternoon
will drop to 2 to 3 ft for Sun before building to 3 to 5 ft Sun
night in response to increasing winds.

Monday through Thursday: SW winds ahead of an approaching cold
front will become NW behind the front late Monday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may be possible in the hours before and
after the cold frontal passage with seas increasing to near 6
feet due to the prolonged SW fetch. Offshore winds on Monday
night will become NE then E on Tuesday as high pressure to our
north tracks eastward throughout the day. Winds and seas remain
elevated throughout the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
veer on Wednesday, becoming SE late in the day as low pressure
develops to our south, riding the coastline northward into our
area later in the day. Winds are likely to become elevated with
the system`s passage, but differing model solutions make it
difficult to assess potential impacts at this time. Winds
become northerly on Thursday as high pressure builds into the
area as seas become 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...III/21


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