Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
491 FXUS62 KILM 130011 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 811 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly typical summertime weather expected across the eastern Carolinas this week. && .UPDATE... No major changes coming down the track at 8 PM EDT. Seabreeze has just about made its way through the entire forecast area. A few showers and storms have popped up in parts of the Pee Dee region, but have dissipated just as fast. Updated 00Z TAF discussion found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Visible satellite imagery as well as a good old-fashioned step outside shows that cumulus clouds are only minimally agitated/vertical along the seabreeze. Convection is still expected to fire in an isolated fashion (underway already near MHX), especially given the strong instability present. Mid level lapse rates are abysmal and shear is non-existent so no storm organization expected. Rain-free conditions tonight with muggy dewpoints again in the mid 70s. Some guidance has a little fog but it may only be of aviation concerns. The Piedmont trough may sharpen slightly heading into Sunday while a subtle mid level ridge builds overhead turning 500mb flow to the north. The seabreeze will have a slightly harder time pushing inland, the end result being low end chc POPs area- wide as the afternoon warms into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridging will more or less be the feature of note for the beginning of the work week. Good convective coverage is expected during the afternoon and evening hours although pops seem to have incrementally decreased. Highs will be in the lower 90s Monday then slightly cooler Tuesday with overnight lows in the lower to mostly middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There appears to be some subtle changes or trends this afternoon with the extended forecast. Pops remain high early on then trend downward by the end of the week as the mid level ridge moves closer to an overhead position. Temperatures seemingly nice for this time of the year with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to middle 70s trend up slowly once again via the positioning of the mid level ridge. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection continues in very isolated spots, most recently in the Pee Dee region around KFLO, but it`s dissipating just as fast as it forms. Threw in a PROB30 group for TSRA at KFLO from 00-01Z, just in case convection hits the airport. Otherwise, high confidence in mostly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Getting a little more confident in fog before sunrise Sunday morning. Winds in the mixed layer calm, and though the atmospheric column looks rather dry, there appears to be enough moisture at the surface to cause fog. Some of this could be dependent upon what convective debris clouds we see tonight (more cirrus = less fog chances). If fog forms, KFLO and KLBT stand the best chance at seeing the lowest visibilities (3-5 SM at worst), due to better environmental conditions than at the coast. From there, fog should dissipate by 12-13Z. Seabreeze circulation forms at the coast again by midday. PROB30 groups at all terminals for potential convection from 20-00Z. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Sunday... Surface gradient weakens gradually through the period as the Piedmont trough both sharpens and spreads east a bit closer to the coast by Sunday. Wind speeds will be capped at 10kt and tend to stay SWrly with some variability at times. Swell energy has abated and the wind waves will obviously be minimal for seas that will settle to 2 ft. Sunday Night through Thursday... The typical synoptic summer pattern will be in place through the period for the marine community. Winds will be from the south/southwest in a range of 10-15 knots with significant seas of 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...IGB MARINE...SHK/MBB