Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 262359
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
The remnants of what should be Hurricane Zeta will move across
the southern  Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will
sweep across the area early Friday. High pressure will build in
from the north Saturday, but a coastal trough could develop just
offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather and above normal temps continues through the near
term period. Low stratus across the area is finally breaking
up, which will give us a few hours of sunshine and brief warming
for today. Light winds and mostly clear skies will drop temps
into mid 50s tonight with fog likely overnight into early
morning hours across the area, which may become dense in areas.
Upper level ridging from the south and mid level ridging from
the east will maintain dry weather through Tuesday night, with
subsidence inversion and dry air above 850mb. Highs in the upper
70s Tuesday with afternoon cumulus clouds. Another round of fog
possible Wednesday morning with lows around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layer high pressure just offshore should provide pleasant
weather for Wednesday. Although cirrus from Hurricane Zeta and
some low Atlantic stratocumulus are possible, deep dry air
between 5k-15k feet AGL associated with the ridge should
preclude showers. Highs in the upper 70s.

Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall on the Gulf Coast
Wednesday, then should rapidly weaken its moves inland across
the Deep South. The remnants of Zeta will move from the
Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday and
Thursday Night. This is far enough away to keep the bulk of the
precip to our north, however strengthening south to southwest
winds could gust to 30 mph Thursday afternoon and evening as
highs rise into the 80s. A cold front following closely behind
Zeta`s remnants should reach the eastern Carolinas very late
Thursday night, possibly preceded by showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front following behind the remnants of Zeta will
sweep off the coast Friday morning, followed by rapid drying on
northwest winds during the day Friday. Highs are sometimes very
tricky in these situations as sunshine can offset even strong
cold advection. I`ve trended Friday`s highs up to 72-75, but
additional upward adjustments may be needed if the front arrives
even a little later than currently forecast. Any lingering
morning showers should move offshore by noon with clearing
skies.

Seasonably cool air should push into the area on north and
northeast winds Friday night and Saturday. By Sunday low level
winds should veer easterly as high pressure moves off the New
England coast. The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show a weak
coastal trough developing, possibly with enough shallow lift
for some light rain to break out. I`ve capped PoPs at 20 percent
for now, but have shown an increasing trend in cloud cover
Sunday. This trough should dissipate as another cold front
sweeps offshore Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to start out across all terminals.
However, looking at MVFR/IFR by midnight from fog and/or low
stratus, and further deteriorate to possibly LIFR due to
pockets of dense fog and associated vertical vsbys. Model
Soundings somewhat split on whether widespread stratus or
widespread fog will dominate. Will drive in the middle of the
road with this one, with the worse and longevity conditions
occurring inland with some improvement the further 1 moves
closer to the coasts. The sfc pg has become quite relaxed and
should see winds decouple rather quickly after sunset. This will
aid fog development more-so than low stratus. It will likely
take to the mid to late morning hrs for winds to re-register.
Mid to late aftn sea breeze to push inland, with it`s forward
motion limited.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR through Wed with
possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from
ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri, expect Zeta
remnants to push across the Carolinas followed by a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday Night...
Benign marine conditions through Tuesday night as lingering E
swell continues to weaken and high pressure over the area will
keep winds relatively light. North- northeast winds 5-10 kts
expected over the next 36 hours. Seas 2-3 ft tonight will weaken
to around 2 feet Tuesday and Tuesday night, predominantly wind
wave with a weak SE swell mixed in.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall on the Gulf Coast
Wednesday, then should rapidly weaken its moves inland across
the Deep South. The remnants of Zeta will move from the
Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday and
Thursday Night, followed closely by a cold front that should
push off the Carolina coast Friday morning. Light onshore winds
Wednesday will veer southerly by Thursday, increasing to 20-30
knots by Thursday evening. Winds will then abruptly shift
northwesterly as the front blows offshore Friday morning. North
to northeast winds will remain elevated through Saturday with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possibly continuing due to winds
and seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/VAO/DCH


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