Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 131723
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018


AVIATION...
Windy conditions are the concern today with some potential later
this afternoon of visibility reductions due to blowing dust and
smoke. Overall, this season has not seen quite as much BLDU as in
recent years despite the drought situation. Multi-spectral
satellite imagery suggests blowing dust concentrations are a bit
worse south of KLBB though likely MVFR at worse as of 1720Z. Some
high based cumulus has developed out toward TXO and may approach
KPVW. Steer well clear of any virga showers today as very strong
downburst potential is high.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service AMARILLO TX/

DISCUSSION... /issued by National Weather Service AMARILLO TX/

Strong winds with continued fire weather conditions are expected
throughout the day across the region. As an upper level system
continues to move east across the Great Basin, strengthening and
deepening southwesterly flow will continue with a High Wind
Warning out for the entire area into the early evening hours with
large areas of blowing dust possible. Winds this afternoon will be
sustained between 30-40 MPH with gusts over 50 MPH at times. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 60s in the northwest
across portions of Parmer and Castro counties to lower 80s in the
southeast. As the main upper level system shifts east-southeast
across Kansas this evening into the overnight, winds will begin to
wane slightly and shift to northwesterly as a cold front begins
to move south into the region by early tomorrow morning.
Temperatures across the northwest may be at or below freezing by
tomorrow morning. Going into the day on Saturday, along and just
in the wake of the cold front, some of the latest hi-res model
data is indicating a second max of strong northwesterly winds
throughout the morning hours on Saturday as the main upper level
system continues to move east along a rather strong 850-700 hPa
pressure gradient. The exact positioning of the upper level low by
tomorrow afternoon still shows weak agreement between the latest
13/00Z data which may limit some of the stronger winds tomorrow
morning. However, winds should subside by tomorrow afternoon as
the main upper level low finally moves out of the central Plains.
High temperatures tomorrow behind the passing front will drop with
temps ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. With light and
variable winds by tomorrow evening into the overnight, good
radiational cooling will allow many locations to drop at or below
freezing with some areas in the northwest as cool as the mid 20s.

Going forward from Sunday into the middle of next week, northwesterly
 mid level flow will shift to westerly and then southwesterly by
middle of next week as an upper level ridge will move right over
west Texas. Some weak perturbations in the mid level flow will
keep any chances of precipitation well north of the region.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s on Sunday and 80s on Monday
and Tuesday. A weak cold front will move south into the region
mid week to knock temperatures back into the 70s for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Although still a week out, latest 00Z global model guidance hints at
moisture returning to parts of the western areas by Friday and
perhaps the entire region by next weekend. A deepening trough into
the southwestern US may create mid level cyclogenesis further
south along the Mexico border, and along with a southeast surface
winds taping into the Gulf of Mexico advecting low level moisture
into the region may provide our next chance of widespread
precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER... /issued by National Weather Service AMARILLO TX/

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the entire region today. RFTI values will range
from 6 to 8 across the region. Min RH values are also expected to
be between 7-11%. As previously mentioned, in-conjunction with a
Red Flag Warning, there is a High Wind Warning for the entire area
from late this morning into the evening hours with southwesterly
winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up over 50 MPH at times. RFTI values
this high represent an extreme threat for very dangerous fire
behavior.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are also possible
for the day on Saturday as strong northwesterly winds along with
min RH values of 15-19% may be conducive for fire weather. Max
RFTI values will be across eastern areas will be 3 to 4.

There will be a lull in Fire Weather conditions on Sunday with a
likely return of Fire Weather conditions by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26



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