Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 081724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

VFR next 24 hours. Biggest concern is the winds this afternoon and
some potential for blowing dust though explicit mention in the TAF
is not made due to low confidence thanks to a slow greenup.
Smaller aircraft are likely to have a bumpy ride across the area. A dry cold
front is expected around midnight. PIREPS requested - Fort Worth
FSS on 122.55 works around KLBB/KPVW and 122.45 around KCDS.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021/

The line of clouds that brought showers and gusty winds Friday
night, can be seen on WV pivoting east through the Rolling Plains
with the H50 ridge axis as of 2AM. Surface winds will gradually
increase and become more west/southwest by late morning, persisting
through the evening hours and eventually easing in the hours after
sunset out ahead of an advancing dry cold front moving south from
the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will climb into the mid 90s as
compressional heating adds to warm advection amid the west/southwest
confluent surface flow into a deepening surface low across the
Oklahoma Panhandle by midday. Fire weather concerns across our
western zones will be mitigated somewhat by recent rainfall and
greening. Nonetheless, RH values will drop into the single digits
with sustained winds between 20-30 MPH for locations on the Caprock,
around 15-25 MPH across the Rolling Plains.

The cold front should clear the forecast area by daybreak Sunday.
The breezy N-NE winds behind the front will quickly swing around to
the east and then east in response to a shortwave passing across the
southern Rockies and cyclogenesis in south-central NM. This
shortwave will spawn scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado south into the western TX
Panhandle. Some of this activity could clip our nrn counties of the
far southern Texas Panhandle Sunday evening.

Increasing isentropic lift and moisture advection Sunday night early
Monday morning should resulting low stratus filling in across
most of the forecast area, with perhaps some pockets of light
drizzle developing as well. The cold air mass will be reinforced
during the day Monday as seasonally cool surface ridging builds
into the central plains and bridges southward. temporarily drier
air moving in with this surge should allow the stratus to
gradually erode through the day, although the extent of clearing
by mid-late afternoon is still unclear. High temperatures should
fall from the 70s and 80s Sunday to mainly 60s Monday, with some
low 70s possible across the southwest.

It should remain dry most of the day Monday but Monday night we will
see the warm-air advection pattern renews as a stronger wave moves
into the Rockies. Low stratus should fill in again and will have a
better potential at remaining entrenched across the region Tuesday.
As a result, tuesday may be the coolest day of the week, with highs
expected to be in the lower 60s for most locations. We will note
that there is quite a bit of range in the temperature guidance for
Tuesday with a few members progging much warmer temperatures,
reflecting less cloud cover. Precipitation chances may be maximized
Tuesday and Tuesday night, although guidance does not suggest a
washout by any means. Instability will be meager, and the deep
moisture convergence is expected to be shunted off to our south.
Scattered light showers and perhaps some weak elevated thunderstorm
activity would appear to be the extent of it at this time. Low
precipitations will persist into Wednesday morning before a drying
and warmer trend commences with the approach of an upper ridge.

A shortwave passing through the weak ridging could bring our next
chance of thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and evening, although
this signal is weak at this time. Better chances may be in store for
Sat and/or Sunday as the next upper-trough advances east through
the western states.

As mentioned above, a meteorologically favorable set-up for fire
weather will be mitigated to some extent by recent rainfall and
seasonal green-up. However, there are spotty areas across the
western and central South Plains that have missed the bulk of
recent precipitation, leading to locations susceptible to rapid
fire spread. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 11 am to 8
pm for the Caprock and adjacent western Rolling Plains.

If any fires are still active after about midnight, a cold front
will move from north to south through the area bringing a wind
shift to the north-northeast and renew breezy conditions.




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