302
FXUS64 KLUB 152323
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and
associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough
is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow
afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the
flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region
this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into
the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift
will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet
clips the southern portion of the FA.

Southerly winds across most of the FA will help influence dewpoints
in the 50s and 60s this afternoon with some locations in the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle already observing dewpoint temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s. As of 2 PM CDT, the frontal boundary
extends along a line from Friona to Happy up to Clarendon. This
feature will serve as a source of lift this afternoon for
thunderstorms as it tracks southward through the FA this afternoon
and evening. Latest model guidance depicts thunderstorms developing
along the frontal boundary this afternoon, with some thunderstorms
developing across the very weak dry-line across our western most
counties. Lack of moisture near the surface and aloft will support
high based convection this afternoon given inverted-v profile
soundings and DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, gusty and erratic winds
up to 70 mph will be the main hazard with thunderstorms. Although
long hodographs have been observed, lack of CAPE will favor more
organized multicell clusters with supercell potential limited.

Thunderstorms are expected through the overnight hours as the FROPA
provides efficient lift for storms to develop. Although the severe
threat begins to diminish overnight, localized flooding will remain
possible, especially with stronger storms as some training is
possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over
the northern Texas Panhandle. As this feature moves closer into
the region, better moisture will be found over the region with
dewpoint temperatures climbing into the 50s-60s and PWATs above
the 90th percentile. Therefore, main threats with thunderstorms
tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall that may lead to localized
flooding across low-lying and poor drainage areas. An isolated
supercell cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern
South Plains and Rolling Plains where the better instability
resides. Gusty winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size may
be possible, especially within larger storm cores.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain will continue to shift east of the forecast area early Friday
morning as the center of the upper-level low moves into Oklahoma
placing us in an area of subsidence aloft. With clearing skies,
temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Friday. Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast
area Saturday and remain overhead through early next week. This
will lead to increasing temperatures through early next week with
high temperatures mostly in the 90s on Saturday and Sunday with
upper 90s and lower 100s on Monday. A shortwave will lower heights
over the area slightly on Tuesday dropping high temperatures back
into the 90s however with limited moisture, it appears that the
forecast area will remain dry. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A complex of STG-SVR thunderstorms is expected to impact KLBB
between 16/01-03Z. Variable wind gusts in excess of 40 kt with
localized reductions in VSBY will occur, in addition to large
hail near one inch in diameter surface-to- aloft. TSRA will
continue to be possible thereafter and a TEMPO group was assigned
to reflect the best timing for KLBB, with chances for convection
persisting at KCDS and KPVW as well into the early morning hours
Thursday. CIGs will then lower into MVFR at all terminals
following the passage of the cold front which will be reinforced
by thunderstorm outflow, which bolsters confidence in low CIGs.
MVFR CIGs are forecast to last into tomorrow afternoon along with
renewed chances for STG-SVR thunderstorms at KLBB and KPVW.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...09