Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
527 FXUS62 KMLB 171308 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 908 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Fog which developed from TIX southward early this morning has mostly been MVFR VIS, occasionally falling to IFR. Fog is forecast to continue to lift over the next hour or so. Have kept mention of VCSH at DAB/LEE for a band of diminishing showers approaching the terminals later this morning. Not enough confidence to mention VCSH further southward. Tricky wind forecast today due to various boundaries traversing the area. Predominant winds are forecast out of the southwest, generally backing southward. East winds developing from MLB south with the development of the sea breeze. Winds can become variable at times through the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Today-Tonight...Calm winds and clear sky conditions are present across central Florida this morning, due in part to the influence of a weak mid level ridge. Draped across Lake Okeechobee is a stationary boundary, which will begin to lift northeast as a warm front later this afternoon and evening. Through the morning hours, we are also monitoring some fog development across the peninsula, most notably near Lake Okeechobee at this hour. Some locations from near Lake Kissimmee to Vero Beach, and northward along I-95, may experience patchy fog through 8-9 AM. Model guidance continues to suggest patchy dense fog developing across portions of Indian River and Brevard County closer to sunrise. Motorists should exercise additional caution if encountering fog during travel this morning. Use low-beam headlights, increase following distance, and plan for additional commute times. Fog will dissipate gradually by mid morning with improvement to visibility expected. Well to our north and west, a complex of showers and lightning storms is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast. HREF ensemble guidance and individual CAM members unanimously suggest that this complex will deteriorate as it treks across the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward central Florida later this morning. The locations best positioned to see little if any rain from this activity will be from Lake County to northern Brevard County. WPC QPF is generally less than 0.05" for those that do happen to see a few raindrops. Late in the afternoon and early this evening, a delayed sea breeze collision may prompt isolated shower or storm development. Coverage will remain sparse and confidence is low in any one location picking up measurable rainfall. In summary, most spots across ECFL will remain dry today as temperatures climb into the 90s. Warm and muggy conditions stick with us tonight as lows overnight only fall into the low/mid 70s and dewpoints hover close by. This Weekend...A challenging forecast continues into the weekend with gradually increasing rain chances, especially by Sunday. A renewed complex of storms is expected to emerge from the central Gulf Coast Saturday morning and push toward north-central Florida. The persistence of storms moving over the eastern Gulf and reaching the western FL peninsula Saturday afternoon is a big question, one best answered in future forecast updates. Synoptically, 500mb height rises are indicated by medium range models on Saturday. 850mb temps climb into the upper teens and low 20s (degC), which is reflected in high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s (degF), especially from Orlando south to Lake Okeechobee. Daily record highs may be approached at Orlando, Sanford, and Vero Beach Saturday afternoon. The risk for heat- related illness, especially for those active outside, will be moderate to high. Practice heat safety by taking frequent breaks in air-conditioned spaces, reducing time outside during peak heating hours, and staying well hydrated. Diurnal convection on Saturday will rely on boundary and sea breeze collisions. Any morning convection over the Gulf could complicate the forecast further, sending additional outflow boundaries across the state. For now, the expectation is that storm initiation will be focused along the east coast sea breeze. Near-surface SW flow increases slightly on Saturday, suggesting that the east coast breeze may remain pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast in the afternoon. Once convective temperatures are reached, as soon as early to mid afternoon, showers and storms are expected to form along the sea breeze and nearby boundary collisions. Activity will drift offshore by early to mid evening, leaving behind temperatures in the 80s (locally cooler where rain occurs). While we are not currently outlooked for organized severe storms, model soundings appear somewhat supportive of strong wind gusts and some hail Saturday afternoon...something to keep an eye on. By Sunday, a surface cold front will approach the area and looks to bring our best opportunity at widespread rainfall. 850mb winds increase in the afternoon to around 30 kt, building bulk 0-6km shear values to around 50-55 kt, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. As a mid level trough sweeps across north-central Florida, model soundings suggest mid level lapse rates will approach 7.0 C/km and 500mb temps cool to -10C. It would not be all too surprising to see a few storms become strong to marginally severe on Sunday, but again, stay tuned as we work to fine tune the forecast in the next 24-48 hours. One benefit to high chance/likely PoPs on Sunday will be cooler afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Rain and storms will gradually wind down Sunday night into early Monday morning as the cold front pushes south of the area. Monday-Thursday...An occluding low pressure system off the Carolina coast will drift seaward through mid week, as high pressure builds from north to south over Florida. PoPs Monday may be on the high side and need further adjustment, especially as drier air works across the area. However, at least low-end rain chances look to linger through Tuesday, especially near the immediate coast. With flow veering out of the north, cooler daytime highs are forecast, approaching near normal values for mid to late May. Drier conditions look to hold from the middle to latter part of next week, as temperatures begin to climb again Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions are forecast, outside of any isolated shower or lightning storm. SW winds remain light until this afternoon, increasing to 10-13 kt and backing to the SE. Seas 1-2 ft. Saturday-Tuesday...Rain and storm chances increase this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. On Saturday, the east coast breeze developing will back winds to the SSE, increasing 10-15 kt again. By Sunday, surface winds become SW 10-15 kt along and ahead of the front as it moves across the waters. The highest coverage of scattered showers and lightning storms is expected Sunday. Winds begin to turn out of the N Monday afternoon behind the front. Seas generally 1-2 ft Saturday, 2-3 ft Sunday, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 73 93 72 / 20 10 40 40 MCO 94 74 96 75 / 20 10 40 30 MLB 90 74 93 74 / 20 10 40 30 VRB 92 73 95 73 / 20 10 40 20 LEE 92 75 92 75 / 30 0 40 40 SFB 93 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 30 ORL 93 75 95 75 / 20 10 40 30 FPR 92 72 94 73 / 20 10 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaper LONG TERM...Schaper AVIATION...Law