Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231928
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight... A broad area of fair weather CU is streaming
across the Florida peninsula this afternoon. A few light showers/
sprinkles have formed in the Atlantic waters from the convergent
band streaming off the Bahamas. Southeast winds will prevail through
the time period, with breezy and gusty conditions along the coast
this afternoon. The 15Z XMR sounding came in slightly drier than the
10Z sounding, with a significant dry layer above the 850mb level,
and a slightly lower PW value from the 10Z sounding, with the 15Z PW
value being 1.21". With this drier air in place, rain chances are
expected to be lower today. There remains however,a slight chance
for diurnal showers and lightning storms well inland during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, mainly across Lake county.
Highest rain chances (PoP 15-20 percent) across the western
interior, from a line extending from northern Lake county, down
through Sanford and Orlando, and down to Lake Okeechobee westward.
A slight chance for showers and storms just after sunset for Lake
county, otherwise, dry to mostly dry through the overnight hours.
Afternoon temperatures will be hot once again with highs in the
upper 80s along the coast, and low 90s west of I-95, with heat
indices reaching in the upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
low 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday... A high pressure ridge centered over the Florida
peninsula will remain over the area through the time period. At
the same time, an upper level trough over the NM/CO/TX area will
begin to move eastward through the day. Locally, southeast winds
will prevail with the east coast sea breeze quickly pushing inland
during the afternoon. Drier air continues to be filtered into the
local area, suppressing the rain chances in the afternoon. A
slight chance of showers and lightning storms will be possible
however across the interior, mainly near and west of a line from
around Deleon Springs to Sanford, Orlando, and Lake Kissimmee.
Mostly dry conditions otherwise as model guidance indicates most
of the activity will be across the western and southern portion of
the peninsula. Hot once again with highs in the upper 80s along
the coast and low 90s west of I-95. Overnight lows will be in the
low 70s.

Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The deep ridge centered
over the FL peninsula early in the week will slide eastward into the
far western Atlantic by mid week. The ridge`s position will promote
southeasterly flow and cause the sea breeze to sweep inland rather
quickly in the afternoon. Rain chances are forecast to be low due to
dry air wrapping around the southern side of the ridge. There is a
20pct chance of storms well west of I-95 in the afternoon, otherwise
mostly dry conditions as the majority of storm activity focuses on
the west/southwest FL coast. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s along
the coast and low 90s inland. Muggy and warm conditions overnight as
lows settle in the lower 70s.

Thursday-Sunday... (Previous Discussion) A strong trough over the
Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Thursday will slide northeast toward
the central Great Lakes on Friday, then over the Northeast/Mid-
Atlantic this weekend. The surface ridge located just east of FL
will dissipate as the larger Atlantic ridge rebuilds over the
Central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move into the FL
panhandle Thursday night, then cross the north/central peninsula
Friday and Friday night. The front washes out over Central FL on
Saturday, though a reinforcing mid-level trough does bring drier air
over the region.

After several days of mostly dry conditions, high rain chances are
expected to return to the forecast late this week into the weekend.
The biggest uncertainty is on Thursday as dry air still remains over
the east-central/southeast FL coast. Thus, the current forecast of
30-40pct rain chances may end up being lower as certainty increases.
Much higher confidence in high rain chances (50-60pct) for Friday
and Saturday as deeper moisture and forcing associated with the cold
front and upper trough make their way over our area.

Southeast winds on Thursday will veer southwest on Friday ahead of
the cold front, then remain southerly over the weekend. The sea
breeze is expected to develop each afternoon and be the focus of
numerous showers and lightning storms from Friday onward. Most
storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts up to 50mph, and torrential downpours leading to a
few inches of rain in a short period of time.

Afternoon temperatures are forecast to be near normal for late May
in the upper 80s areawide, except for Friday where southwest flow
allows temps to reach the low 90s. Overnight lows around 70 degrees
inland and lower 70s along the coast.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. An
isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon
across the northern interior, but confidence is too low for VC
mention. Clear and dry tonight and Tue morning. Winds at inland
terminals and DAB ESE around 10 kts, becoming light and variable
tonight, then increasing back to 10 knots Tue. Winds at Space and
Treasure Coast terminals ESE 10-15 kts gusting around 20 kts, easing
to around 8 kts tonight, and increasing to 10-14 kts Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Current- Tonight... Favorable boating conditions through the time
period. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 3 ft with
SSE winds around 10 KT. Scattered marine CU streaming across the
Atlantic waters, with isolated light showers/sprinkles across the
Treasure coast waters from a convergent band off the Bahamas. The
high pressure ridge in the western Atlantic will maintain SE winds
10-15 KT with seas 2-3ft this afternoon and through the overnight
hours.

Tuesday-Friday...(Previous Discussion)An area of high pressure
centered just east of the FL peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday will
keep conditions mostly dry over the local waters. Southeasterly wind
flow around 10-15 knots each day, with seas 2-3 feet on Tuesday
building slightly to 3-4 feet by Wednesday morning. Favorable
boating conditions are expected.

A cold front is forecast to move into the FL panhandle on Thursday,
then move slowly across north/central FL Friday through the weekend.
Increasing rain chances late this week, with numerous offshore
moving showers and lightning storms forecast on Friday. These storms
will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and wind
gusts of 35 knots. Southeast winds around 15 knots on Thursday will
veer southwest on Friday ahead of the cold front. A diffused sea
breeze will develop Tuesday through Thursday, then a more pronounced
sea breeze should develop Friday afternoon that causes winds to back
to southeast behind the breeze. Seas 3-4 feet on Thursday diminish
to 2-3 feet Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  72  88 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  72  92  71  91 /  10  20   0  20
MLB  74  87  74  87 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  71  87  72  88 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  73  91  72  90 /  10  20   0  20
SFB  72  91  71  90 /  10  20   0  10
ORL  74  92  73  91 /  10  20   0  10
FPR  72  87  71  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Watson
RADAR/IMPACT WX....Kelly
AVIATION...Haley


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