


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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001 FXUS62 KMLB 191124 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Hot and mostly dry weather conditions persists into mid week with near record high temperatures forecast and peak heat indices rising to 100-105. Worsening/expanding drought conditions are forecast. - A weak front will bring low to medium rain and storm chances back into the forecast mid/late week. -Lingering moisture behind the front late week and into the weekend will support a low chance for rain and lightning storms. Onshore flow behind the front will bring slightly lower temperatures. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Today-Tonight... High pressure will remain in control over the Florida peninsula through the period, promoting light offshore winds (generally 10 mph or less). The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push partially inland (with the southern portion moving farther inland), which will turn the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, however, there is a small (20 percent) chance of rain across the interior in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Lightning does not look favorable at this time. Well above normal temperatures will continue with near record highs forecast once again. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid 90s across the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast where the sea breeze will help keep temperatures slightly cooler. Dew points will be similar to yesterday`s, allowing peak heat indices to reach between 100-105. Daytona, Sanford, Leesburg, Orlando, and Vero Beach will all be in good positions to potentially break or tie their daily record highs today (see below). Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, except in the upper 60s in far northern Volusia/Lake counties. Tuesday-Wednesday... Deep layer ridging over the Florida peninsula will remain in place Tuesday before shifting eastward into Wednesday. At the same time, an upper level trough across the central US will also move eastward into the Midwest. Locally, hot temperatures will persist with no mentionable rain chances. Although some models are indicating a small (20 percent) chance of rain across the central interior on Tuesday. However, confidence is not high for this to occur, so have kept mention of rain out of the forecast for now. Light offshore flow will persist, with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form and move partially inland each afternoon, which will turn the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast where the sea breeze will help keep temperatures slightly cooler. These high temperatures coupled with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will produce peak heat indices between 100 to 105 each day, mainly from just inland from the coast to across the interior. Thursday-Sunday... A weak cold front is progged to move across east central Florida Thursday, reaching the Straits of Florida by Friday morning. High pressure will then build behind the front into the weekend. Locally, moisture will increase, allowing for rain and storm chances to once again enter into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance for rain on Thursday along and ahead of the front, with a low (20 percent) chance for lightning storms. Lingering moisture across the area into the weekend will support a low (20 percent) chance of rain across portions of the CWA each afternoon, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms. West to northwest winds on Thursday will become northeast to east on Friday and Saturday, and east to southeast on Sunday with speeds generally 10 mph or less. This onshore flow will help keep temperatures slightly cooler than they were at the beginning of the week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s on Thursday, and mid to upper 80s along the coast and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior on Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Today-Friday... Surface Atlantic ridge will remain over the the Florida peninsula into mid week before a weak cold front moves across the local waters on Thursday. Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast through mid week as high pressure remains in control, with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E- SE increasing 10-14 KT near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2ft increasing to 3 ft offshore Tuesday night/ Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday. Boating conditions worsen by Wednesday night, mainly across the Gulf stream, as winds increase to 15 KT. While conditions will be mostly dry, there are isolated offshore-moving showers and lightning storms forecast on Thursday, with a weak front moving over the local waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 VFR conditions generally forecast today into tonight. A thin band of lower clouds may produce some brief MVFR cigs at KVRB/KFPR through early this morning. Otherwise, developing diurnal cu today will have bases around 4-6kft. There continues to be a low chance (around 10-20 percent) for showers and potentially an isolated storm across the interior late this afternoon and toward sunset as sea breeze boundaries shift inland and collide near to west of Orlando. However, will continue to keep any mention out of the TAFs, as rain chances remain quite low. Light S/SW flow of 5-7 knots will become 10-15 knots out of the E/SE this afternoon along the coast as east coast sea breeze pushes inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Well above normal temperatures will keep conditions unseasonably hot, as well as mostly dry, across east central Florida through mid week. Min RH values are forecast to fall between 35-40 percent across the northern interior, and 40-45 percent generally across the rest of the interior today and Tuesday. Min RH values recover slightly on Wednesday to 40-45 percent across the interior. While most locations will remain dry, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain across the interior this afternoon, with no mentionable. rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The low min RH values coupled with low rain chances through mid week will continue to decrease soil moisture. West to southwest winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph so conditions will be below Red Flag criteria. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore behind the sea breeze, which will hold min RH values along the coast near 50 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 72 94 70 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 95 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 MLB 91 75 92 73 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 92 73 93 73 / 10 0 10 0 LEE 94 73 94 73 / 10 0 10 0 SFB 96 74 97 72 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 96 75 97 74 / 20 10 10 0 FPR 92 72 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Weitlich