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000
FXUS62 KMLB 060752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
352 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...

Current...High pressure and drier air are in place across east
central Florida, with GOES-derived PW of 1.1 to 1.2 inches
areawide. Temperatures are steadily falling into the upper 60s to
low 70s as sky conditions remain mostly clear and light north-
northeasterly winds continue.

Today-Tonight...Northeast winds will veer to the southeast later
today, as the east coast sea breeze takes shape early in the
afternoon. Temperatures will warm by several more degrees today
with efficient diurnal heating and mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions expected. A more active 500mb pattern and higher
atmospheric moisture content across south Florida will support
greater coverage of shower and thunderstorm development there,
whereas only isolated showers and a storm or two are expected
across east central Florida. Activity will be driven by diurnal
heating and weak forcing associated with the east coast sea breeze
pushing inland. Coverage of rain and storms today will be low,
but those who do get caught under a shower or brief storm will
score temporary relief from the near 90 degree heat.

By late afternoon and early evening, hi-res guidance suggests a
small but strong complex of storms approaching the Lake Okeechobee
region. For now, it appears this convection will fall apart as it
approaches Martin County and the Treasure Coast, but for interests
near the Lake, it will be worth watching. As a result, the Storm
Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of Martin
County in a Marginal Risk for severe storms later this afternoon
and evening. Again, this is a very conditional threat.

Elsewhere, most locations will stay dry today with temperatures
climbing to near normal June values...in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast and closer to 90 degrees inland. At the beaches,
a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents exists. Remember to
always swim within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

Wed-Wed Night...Weak troughing aloft across the Deep South extending
into the GoMex with occasional mid-level impulses traversing the FL
peninsula. Initial 500 mb temps (-9C to -10C) will warm a degree or
two thru the period. PWAT values remain modest at 1.40-1.60 inches
areawide. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern exists across the
central peninsula with initial light S/SW winds remaining SWRLY
over the interior during the day, but may back to S/SE along the
immediate coast in the afternoon due to sea breeze formation. A
weak frontal boundary will sag southward becoming quasi-stationary
across the Deep South by the end of the period. Have stayed below
NBM`s inflated PoPs, but still maintain nearly 60-70pct for diurnally
induced convection during the afternoon-early evening. Storm
motion will be out of the WSW around 15 mph so the WCSB should be
more active traversing the peninsula as showers/storms stack up
across the eastern peninsula during the afternoon/evening,
eventually moving off the coast and across the intracoastal and
near shore Atlc waters. A few storms could be strong to marginally
severe. Main storm threats include occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 55 mph - one or two storms
potentially up to 60 mph, small hail -possibly up to quarter-
size, and torrential downpours. Afternoon highs in the M-U80s near
the coast and near 90F to L90s inland. Overnight lows in the 60s
to L70s.

Thu-Tue...W/SW flow aloft dominates this period (becoming NWRLY late
Mon into Tue) as mid-level temps warm 2-3 degrees at 500 mb.
Occasional shortwave impulses will pass across the central
peninsula but any significant shortwave energy remains forecast to
stay northward. At the surface, light to moderate offshore flow
remains dominant for much of the period, though the ECSB likely
forms each day, but inland progression may be stymied by deeper
overall WRLY flow. The next frontal boundary may fluctuate across
N/N-C FL Fri-Sat before lifting back northward late Sat-Sun. PWAT
values seem to vary across ECFL during the period between 1.40-
1.70 inches. Storm motion continues out of the SW/W for much of
this time. This would tend to focus diurnally induced showers and
lightning storms over the eastern peninsula in the afternoon and
evening of each day. Have continued to keep PoPs below the NBM`s
"higher" wet season numbers. Thu-Fri seems to be the highest PoP
potential due to proximity of aforementioned front with 60-70pct.
Else for now, keep 40-50pct precip chances all other days into the
extended. Seasonably warm-humid with M-U80s (perhaps 90F at
times) near the coast and L90s inland. Overnight lows well into
the 60s to L70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Today-Tonight...Seas around 5-6 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning
will decrease to 4-5 ft by midday. Wave heights 3-5 ft are expected
this afternoon, falling to 3-4 ft across the local waters tonight.
ENE winds 5-10 kt will turn ESE and increase up to 10-15 kt this
afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Then, winds become S
tonight, generally around 10 kt, except where 10-14 kt in the
offshore Volusia waters.

Wed-Sat...Offshore flow does dominate much of this period, but may
still see daily sea breezes eventually form each afternoon, though
penetration inland may be stymied or very slow given the depth of
the offshore winds. Speeds generally AOB 15 kts, but Wed/Thu night`s
may see winds well offshore pick up to 14-18 kts. Seas typically AOB
3 ft, but could kick up to 4 ft at times well offshore in relation
to stronger winds Wed/Thu nights. SCT-NMRS shower/ISOLD-SCT
lightning storm chances during the period, especially Gulf Stream.
Much of this activity will be offshore-moving in the
afternoon/evening. Winds/seas locally higher invof convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Expect east winds today, lighter than the previous day, becoming
southwest on Wednesday. No min RH concerns into the extended.
Dispersion values will be Generally Good to Very Good today and
Very Good to Excellent on Wednesday. Moisture gradually works back
into the area mid-week into late week with increasing (diurnal)
shower and lightning storm chances. Offshore flow will dominate
from mid to late week with the east coast sea breeze either
delayed or pinned closer to the coast. The west coast sea breeze
will be much more active and penetrate into east central Florida
each day. As such boundary collisions and late day-evening
lightning storms will focus across the eastern peninsula. A few
storms Wednesday will be strong to marginally severe. In play will
be frequent lightning strikes, gusty/erratic winds, and small
hail up to quarter size in a few storms. Locally heavy downpours
will be possible as well. Storm motion will favor toward the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR continue with a light NNE surface wind. 5-12 kt winds turn E
this afternoon, then SE tonight, decreasing after 02z Wed. Isolated
SHRA or a rogue TSRA may develop near inland sites after 18z-20z.
Included VCSH mention for now due to low probability/confidence in
this occurring. Clouds increase after 00z Wed., especially MLB
southward to the Treasure Coast terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The river level at Astor on the St. Johns River is forecast to hover
around or just above Minor Flood Stage through much of today before
falling to Action Stage early Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  69  89  70 /  10  10  60  20
MCO  89  71  90  72 /  30  20  60  20
MLB  85  71  90  71 /  20  10  60  30
VRB  86  70  90  70 /  20  20  60  30
LEE  91  70  90  71 /  30  20  60  20
SFB  89  70  91  71 /  20  20  60  20
ORL  90  71  92  73 /  30  20  60  20
FPR  84  71  89  70 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaper
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper