001
FXUS62 KMLB 191124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

- Hot and mostly dry weather conditions persists into mid week with
near record high temperatures forecast and peak heat indices rising
to 100-105. Worsening/expanding drought conditions are forecast.

- A weak front will bring low to medium rain and storm chances back
into the forecast mid/late week.

-Lingering moisture behind the front late week and into the
 weekend will support a low chance for rain and lightning storms.
 Onshore flow behind the front will bring slightly lower
 temperatures.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Today-Tonight... High pressure will remain in control over the
Florida peninsula through the period, promoting light offshore winds
(generally 10 mph or less). The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form in the afternoon and push partially inland (with the southern
portion moving farther inland), which will turn the winds onshore
behind the sea breeze. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, however,
there is a small (20 percent) chance of rain across the interior in
the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Lightning does not
look favorable at this time.

Well above normal temperatures will continue with near record highs
forecast once again. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid
90s across the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast where
the sea breeze will help keep temperatures slightly cooler. Dew
points will be similar to yesterday`s, allowing peak heat indices to
reach between 100-105. Daytona, Sanford, Leesburg, Orlando, and Vero
Beach will all be in good positions to potentially break or tie
their daily record highs today (see below). Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s, except in the upper 60s in far northern
Volusia/Lake counties.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Deep layer ridging over the Florida peninsula
will remain in place Tuesday before shifting eastward into
Wednesday. At the same time, an upper level trough across the
central US will also move eastward into the Midwest. Locally, hot
temperatures will persist with no mentionable rain chances.
Although some models are indicating a small (20 percent) chance of
rain across the central interior on Tuesday. However, confidence
is not high for this to occur, so have kept mention of rain out
of the forecast for now. Light offshore flow will persist, with
the east coast sea breeze forecast to form and move partially
inland each afternoon, which will turn the winds onshore behind
the sea breeze. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast where the
sea breeze will help keep temperatures slightly cooler. These high
temperatures coupled with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s
will produce peak heat indices between 100 to 105 each day, mainly
from just inland from the coast to across the interior.

Thursday-Sunday... A weak cold front is progged to move across east
central Florida Thursday, reaching the Straits of Florida by Friday
morning. High pressure will then build behind the front into the
weekend. Locally, moisture will increase, allowing for rain and storm
chances to once again enter into the forecast. There is a low to
medium (20-30 percent) chance for rain on Thursday along and ahead
of the front, with a low (20 percent) chance for lightning
storms. Lingering moisture across the area into the weekend will
support a low (20 percent) chance of rain across portions of the
CWA each afternoon, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning
storms. West to northwest winds on Thursday will become northeast
to east on Friday and Saturday, and east to southeast on Sunday
with speeds generally 10 mph or less. This onshore flow will help
keep temperatures slightly cooler than they were at the beginning
of the week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s on
Thursday, and mid to upper 80s along the coast and upper 80s to
low 90s across the interior on Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Today-Friday... Surface Atlantic ridge will remain over the the
Florida peninsula into mid week before a weak cold front moves
across the local waters on Thursday. Mostly favorable boating
conditions are forecast through mid week as high pressure remains in
control, with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-
SE increasing 10-14 KT near the coast behind the sea breeze each
afternoon. Seas 1-2ft increasing to 3 ft offshore Tuesday night/
Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday. Boating conditions worsen by
Wednesday night, mainly across the Gulf stream, as winds increase to
15 KT. While conditions will be mostly dry, there are isolated
offshore-moving showers and lightning storms forecast on Thursday,
with a weak front moving over the local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

VFR conditions generally forecast today into tonight. A thin band
of lower clouds may produce some brief MVFR cigs at KVRB/KFPR
through early this morning. Otherwise, developing diurnal cu today
will have bases around 4-6kft. There continues to be a low chance
(around 10-20 percent) for showers and potentially an isolated
storm across the interior late this afternoon and toward sunset as
sea breeze boundaries shift inland and collide near to west of
Orlando. However, will continue to keep any mention out of the
TAFs, as rain chances remain quite low. Light S/SW flow of 5-7
knots will become 10-15 knots out of the E/SE this afternoon along
the coast as east coast sea breeze pushes inland.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Well above normal temperatures will keep conditions unseasonably
hot, as well as mostly dry, across east central Florida through mid
week. Min RH values are forecast to fall between 35-40 percent
across the northern interior, and 40-45 percent generally across the
rest of the interior today and Tuesday. Min RH values recover
slightly on Wednesday to 40-45 percent across the interior. While
most locations will remain dry, there is a low (20 percent) chance
of rain across the interior this afternoon, with no mentionable.
rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The low min RH values coupled
with low rain chances through mid week will continue to decrease
soil moisture. West to southwest winds are forecast to remain below
15 mph so conditions will be below Red Flag criteria. The east coast
sea breeze will form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore
behind the sea breeze, which will hold min RH values along the coast
near 50 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  72  94  70 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  95  75  96  73 /  20  10  10   0
MLB  91  75  92  73 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  92  73  93  73 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  94  73  94  73 /  10   0  10   0
SFB  96  74  97  72 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  96  75  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
FPR  92  72  92  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich