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000
FXUS64 KOHX 172359
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
659 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

At mid afternoon, an upper level trough axis extended from the
Great Lakes to the Central Plains. A weak cold frontal zone
extended along the same line. To the southeast of these features,
clusters of showers and thunderstorms continued in the warm and
moist environment as a series of weak waves moved ahead of the
trough. In Mid Tn, there had been a break from late morning into
early afternoon, but activity was starting to increase again. The
increasing trend will continue late this afternoon into early
evening, especially across our south and Plateau counties. A few
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will continue
to be a possibility through the evening.

Showers and storms will decrease late tonight, but then increase
again Saturday. These clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
continue until the upper trough axis moves southeast of our area
late Saturday afternoon and evening. A couple of strong storms
with heavy downpours could occur Saturday, but the severe risk is
low.

Sunday will be a more typical August day with warm and humid
conditions and a 20-30 percent chance for mainly afternoon
thunderstorms.

Active weather will return quickly with a stronger, more progressive
weather system moving from the plains to the Great Lakes. This
system will cause development of showers and thunderstorms Monday
with high chances continuing through Tuesday. The surface low
pressure with this system will be fairly strong and it will bring
a trailing cold front into the Mid State on Tuesday. So, a few
strong storms could occur ahead of the front. After the front
passes, refreshingly cooler air with lower humidity will move in
for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Consensus of short range model runs showing the
potential of rounds of shwrs/tstms training at least in the vcnty
of CSV thru 18/10Z. Most confidence of terminal impacts CSV thru
18/24Z. Some MVFR fog possible CSV 18/10Z-18/13Z. For CKV/
MQY/BNA, have less certainty with at least VCSH possible BNA/MQY
thru at least 18/03Z. VFR, MVFR fog if breaks in ceilings occur,
will be possible at these terminals generally 18/09Z-18/15Z. VFR
conditions should prevail at all terminals by 18/15Z. Long range
model consensus continuing to show best moisture remaining over
Cumberland Plateau Region 18/15Z-18/24Z. However, instability to
the W will remain. Thus, mentioned VCTS at all terminals 18/18Z-18/24Z.
Generally, over valid TAF period, sfc winds will generally be SW
TO W 5-10 kt range.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........31