Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 212234
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure is stacked across Ga and the Carolinas with ridging
extending westward across the mid state. 850 mb to 925 mb
trajectories are originating mostly over land and thus...airmass is
rather dry. 850 mb flow to become a little bit more southerly on
Sunday so dewpoints may begin to climb a few degrees. But, dynamics
amd favorable convective parameters still missing so will keep it
dry. By late Sunday night, the upper high becomes suppressed to our
south. Westerlies will then allow a cold front to approach from the
northwest. Pop inclusion will return late Sunday night and into
Monday for the area. Pops, however, will remain on the lower sub 40%
side. Furthermore, qpf totals look rather light with maybe a tenth
of an inch on average. Precip quickly moves out by Monday night.

For the near term temps, still above normal although max temps will
trend more toward the mid and upper 80s. Monday night, behind the
fropa, will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, pretty close to
normal for mid/late Sep.

In the ext fcst, westerlies to remain with the next fropa occurring
on Wed nt. Moist low level return is absent in advance of the
boundary. Therefore, only slight pops will be included. Heights will
rise by the weekend with mid and upper level ridging again taking
over the weather pattern.

For the ext temps, max temps will start out in the mid and upper 80s
on Tues and Wed. Lower 90s will return by the weekend, however, as
the aforementioned upper ridging returns. In fact, 7-12 days out, the
heat will continue as a rather potent upper high spreads across much
of the mid south and southeast. CPC concurs with well above normal
temps expected for the 7 to 14 day period. Precip will remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface high remains situated to our east, but a
surface front approaching from the NW has helped tighten up the
pressure gradient across Middle Tennessee, so winds are up a few
knots. Dew points remain low and the atmosphere remains dry and
stable, so we`re going with VFR wx for at least the next 24 hrs.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08


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