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000
FXUS64 KOHX 060806
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Dangerous heat and humidity will build even more today under a
strong upper level ridge. Yesterday`s temps and heat index values
climbed toward the upper end of model and forecast guidance
values, and this will likely happen again today (and through
Thursday and Friday). We have bumped up the forecast, and many
areas are expected to have 110 to 112 heat index values this
afternoon, and perhaps as high as 115 in some spots. We have
upgraded areas along and west of I-65 to an Excessive Heat
Warning. East of I-65, we have expanded the Heat Advisory to
include all but the highest elevation counties in our coverage
area.

This is a very dangerous situation. The building and lingering
heat will make heat related illness much more likely. We urge
implementation of all available safety actions to protect people
and animals.

We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but like
yesterday, only around 30 percent of the area will be impacted.
Where storms occur you can expect brief heavy downpours,
dangerous lightning, and wind gusts around 35mph. A few storms
could be briefly severe with damaging wind gusts. These would
tend to be very focused downburst wind events like we saw in the
Gallatin area yesterday. SPC shows a slight risk northeast and a
marginal risk southwest across our area. With the scattered
nature of the storms, impacted locations may receive a quick dump
of 2+ inches of rainfall while many other areas have no rain. Good
luck to all in the "rainfall lottery".

Same story goes for Thursday for the heat and storm potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Dangerous heat will continue through Friday along with the
scattered thunderstorm regime. The ridge will pull west slightly
this weekend allowing northwest flow aloft to bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances, followed by a weak cold front
passage. This will bring some relief from the heat, but it looks
like the ridge may rebound Monday and Tuesday. After that, models
show the ridge building up out west, and this should allow us to
get into more of a normal temperature pattern late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Scattered
showers and storms could impact the terminals during the afternoon
and early evening. This was addressed with VCTS due to low probabilities.
Winds will be out of the SW/W around 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville     100  78 100  78 /  30  20  30  20
Clarksville   100  77 100  77 /  20  20  30  20
Crossville     90  70  90  71 /  40  30  40  20
Columbia       99  74  99  76 /  40  20  40  20
Cookeville     94  73  95  73 /  40  30  40  20
Jamestown      92  71  92  71 /  40  30  40  30
Lawrenceburg   97  74  97  75 /  30  20  30  20
Murfreesboro   99  75 100  76 /  40  30  30  30
Waverly       101  76 101  76 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for Cannon-Clay-
Coffee-De Kalb-Jackson-Macon-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Smith-
Trousdale-Warren-White.

Excessive Heat Warning until midnight CDT Friday night for
Bedford-Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan