006
FXUS64 KOHX 130334
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best
  chances are in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with
  isolated stronger storms.

- Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 40% chance of
  heat indices greater than 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee
from the northwest currently. Not expecting any severe weather
from this line, and it has pretty quickly become outflow dominant
since entering middle Tennessee. Overnight, we could see more
isolated showers thanks to how moist the air mass is (and
continues to become with moisture advection into the area
continuing).

For Sunday, a weak shortwave will be approaching our area, as well
as a front stalling to our north. More numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected once again, and while the severe threat
is low, some localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning
can be expected from stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Ridging into the work week favors more warm temperatures and
moisture in middle Tennessee. This will lead to continued diurnal
rain chances and hot heat indices through at least mid-week.
Probabilities for over 100 degree heat indices are around 20 - 40%
by mid-week, with higher probability as you get closer to western
Tennessee. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with a few
exceptions. Watching line of TSRA that may be able to hold it
together to impact KCKV between 01Z-03Z bringing brief MVFR/IFR
Conditions, but think the line should decay enough not to impact
KBNA or KMQY. Otherwise, some -BR/BCFG could briefly develop at
KCSV and KSRB between 09Z-13Z. More TSRA development expected
after 18Z, however pinpointing impacts and locations are too
difficult to include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  74  93 /  20  60  20  60
Clarksville    72  90  73  89 /  30  60  40  60
Crossville     67  87  68  88 /  20  50  20  60
Columbia       71  92  72  92 /  10  60  20  60
Cookeville     69  88  70  89 /  20  50  20  60
Jamestown      68  87  68  88 /  20  50  30  60
Lawrenceburg   71  90  71  92 /  10  60  20  50
Murfreesboro   72  93  72  94 /  10  60  20  60
Waverly        71  90  71  89 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Hurley