090
FXUS64 KOHX 270249
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
949 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- We have one more day of the week-long Heat Advisory tomorrow as
  temperatures are about to start backing off. Hot and humid
  weather will continue, but the period of dangerous heat is about
  to end.

- Rain chances will gradually increase as we head into the weekend
  and early next week.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow across
  Middle Tennessee east of I-65. Damaging winds are the main
  threat with any storms that develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

As expected, high pressure at the surface and aloft has weakened
considerably across Middle Tennessee, but only isolated storms
managed to form during the late afternoon and early evening today.
The 00Z sounding from OHX does show considerable instability,
with a surface-based CAPE of 4,106 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -9.
Lapse rate in the 700-500 mb layer isn`t all that impressive
(5.7C/km) and there is no wind shear to speak of. In fact, the
wind profile throughout the column is remarkably weak, hence the
slow movement of the convection that has developed. Precipitable
Water is 1.66", which is right at the 75th percentile for this
date climatologically. This isn`t surprising given the high
rainfall rates we have seen with some of the storms. It appears
that a weak surface boundary may interact with the unstable
environment to produce additional storms tomorrow afternoon and
evening, hence the marginal risk covering most of Middle Tennessee
east of I-65. After tomorrow, there are no risk areas that
include Middle Tennessee out through day 8, despite the medium to
high PoPs that are in place beginning this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

After tomorrow, temperatures will back off just enough so that the
Heat Advisory that has been in place all week will no longer be
needed. Hot, humid weather will continue for the foreseeable
future, but dangerous levels of heat won`t stick around. We expect
medium to high rain and storms chances through next Tuesday or
thereabouts, with a surface boundary potentially coming through
around that time that would bring lower rain chances for the
remainder of next week. This remains to be seen, as we are now in
that time of year when clean frontal passages in Middle Tennessee
are hard to come by. Regardless, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks favor above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall
across all of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible during the taf
period with models showing higher probabilities for SRB/CSV.
PROB30 was mentioned at those two sites. For BNA/MQY/CKV, the
probabilities are slightly lower so the mention of storms was left
out for now. There`s a medium chance fog impacts CSV/SRB after
06z. Winds will be generally 6 kts or less mainly out of the
S/SSW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
Clarksville    74  91  74  90 /  10  30  20  60
Crossville     67  87  67  85 /  20  60  30  70
Columbia       72  91  72  91 /  20  50  20  60
Cookeville     70  88  69  86 /  20  50  30  70
Jamestown      69  88  68  86 /  10  50  30  70
Lawrenceburg   71  90  71  89 /  20  50  20  60
Murfreesboro   72  92  72  91 /  20  50  20  60
Waverly        72  91  72  91 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan