Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 160826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


.Short Term(Today thru Sun night)

Boundary positioned just north of the mid state this morning. This
feature will weaken today as a well stacked storm system gains
strength over the central Plains. Some fairly descent pre frontal
troughing will eject eastward and reach our area by late this
afternoon. With moisture on the increase, low pops for showers will
be included, mainly across western areas.

Tonight, forcing will pick up and so will the pops. Additionally,
instabilities will be high enough and I will include some
thunder. Otw, rain chances will be in the likely range. Pops for
the most part will end by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night and
Sunday look reasonably nice although cloud coverage will be

Still looking for a sfc low to track across the deep south Sunday
night. Euro is a little further north with the shower activity,
versus the Gfs. Will include low pops all the way to the Ky
border but will ramp pops up the further south you go.

Qpf amounts through Sunday night are not looking too terrible.
Models vary considerably, but it looks like one quarter inch north
to as much as three quarters of an inch south.

For the near term temps, clouds and an easterly wind component
will keep our highs in the 60s today. Mild tonight as the winds
become more southerly in advance of the approaching system.
Saturday is looking rather warm as a mid level trough is not
expected to traverse the area until late afternoon. With partial
sunshine through the day, highs will soar into the 70s! Waa will
be rather strong with a good southwesterly breeze. Cooler for Sat
night and Sun with the mercury dropping back down into the 40s,
with highs mostly lower 60s.

.Long Term(Mon thru Fri)...

Somewhat of an unsettled wx pattern for next work week. Best chance
of shwrs/tstms on Mon, with decreasing chances of pcpn as the
remainder of the work week progresses. Seasonably warm temps will
cool to below normal values by end of work week. Shwrs/tstms on Mon
provided by a frontal system approaching and then moving thru the
mid state region Mon afternoon into Mon night.  Upper level
troughing influences will persist thru Wed night with the chance of
light rain shwrs. There is also the possiblity across the higher
elevations of the Upper Cumberland Region that there will be a
slight chance of a change over from light rain to light snow after
midnight on Wed night. Above mentioned cooler temp trend the result
of a blend of Rockies and Canadian high pressure influences building
into the mid state region later in the work week. This will also
bring dry conditions to the mid state region Thu into Fri, expect
for far nw portions of mid state on Fri where a slight chance of
light shwrs will be possible.



VFR conditions for this TAF cycle as high pressure continues to
dominate. SW wind gusts have relaxed this evening, but continue
to be 7-10kts overnight.

High clouds tonight will become mid clouds tomorrow afternoon.
Have introduced MVFR cigs/vis as rains begin to move in towards
the end of this cycle. Some TS might become necessary, but will
leave out for now.


Nashville      66  55  76  46  63 /  30  60  20  10  10
Clarksville    63  53  71  42  61 /  40  60  10  10  10
Crossville     62  52  70  46  59 /  10  60  40  20  10
Columbia       69  56  75  46  64 /  30  60  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   70  56  76  46  66 /  30  60  20  10  10
Waverly        67  55  71  44  62 /  40  60  10  10  10





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