542
FXUS64 KOHX 111106
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
606 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Rain and storm chances will continue through the weekend.

- While the risk of severe storms remains very low, localized
  flash flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be
  possible with any storms.

- Expect warm and humid conditions for the foreseeable future with
  heat index values creeping back up near 100 next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Heading into tonight, cloud cover clears out and we have a slight
southerly wind which will help areas that saw rain today (especially
to our east) develop some localized patchy fog. For Saturday, the
current model soundings show a classic summertime setup with high
CAPE, low shear, and relatively high PWATs for this time of year
(around 1.70"). Scattered storms will be possible across the
entire CWA tomorrow. The biggest threat for these storms tomorrow
is localized flooding due to slow winds aloft, similar to the last
couple of days. Sadly, these storms won`t be cooling us off a lot
with highs in the low 90s. These diurnally- driven storms will
die off after they lose daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

An upper-level trough moves through the area this weekend which will
aid our rain chances, resulting in similar storm activity we have
been seeing lately. Mid-week an area of high pressure moves up from
the Gulf, bringing lots of warm and moist air with it. Even though
we will be in high pressure, our rain chances are here to stay. The
tropical airmass that this high pressure center is bringing in will:
amplify the heat (highs in the mid 90s), bring in higher PWATs
(higher humidity), and influence diaurnally-driven storms. Later
in the week, a trough dips down into our area and keeps rain in
the forecast along with some increased cloud cover that will cool
us off a few degrees with highs in the low 90s. The storms this
week are not expected to become severe, but some storms that
develop have the ability to produce gusty winds, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and possible localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Patchy fog this morning is resulting in localized MVFR conditions.
These conditions will gradually improve through the morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will then again develop this afternoon,
but coverage will likely be less compared to recent days. Any
storms will diminish around 00Z-02Z. Patchy fog likely redevelops
overnight with highest confidence at KCSV and KSRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  73  94  75 /  20  10  30  20
Clarksville    92  73  92  73 /  10  10  20  20
Crossville     86  66  87  67 /  40  10  40  20
Columbia       91  71  93  72 /  30  10  40  20
Cookeville     88  69  89  70 /  20  10  60  20
Jamestown      87  68  87  68 /  20  10  40  20
Lawrenceburg   90  70  91  71 /  40  10  40  20
Murfreesboro   92  71  94  72 /  30  10  40  20
Waverly        91  71  91  72 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....Clements