Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 061159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
659 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020




ML/UL trough remains over the eastern US this morning...and is
expected to stay put in some form through through the weekend. Weak
SFC/LL frontal boundary currently remains down across the gulf
coast. This boundary will make slow northward movement today and
Fri, but it too is expected to remain south of us through later Sun.
Upper trough does not look as sharp on Sat but the GFS, and EURO to
a lesser extent showing a weak upper low over the OH valley on
Sun, which will slightly deepen the trough once again. Overall, we
are looking at fairly limited moisture through Sat, with a bump
on Sun. Instability and shear remain low-end as well, thus pcpn
will be minimal for most through Sat night. Sun still in question
but we are likely to see an increase in activity, especially in
the afternoon. High temps will also continue their slow climb,
with many in the lower 90s on Sat.

Mon morning, weak SFC/LL boundary sets up over the mid-south, but
then washes out by Tue, as boundary coming out of the mid-west
sets up over the OH valley. This boundary expected to stay quasi-
stationary over that region really into late next week. Upper
trough across the eastern US really dampens and goes through many
transformations through the week as weak shortwaves/impulses pass.
Deep moisture and instability, especially in peak heating, will
both be more favorable. Shear even gets a small boost from time
to time. Shower/storm development will be much more plentiful Mon
into late week, but will be largely diurnally driven as overall
pattern remains unorganized. SVR parameters low-end as well, but
an isolated afternoon strong storm or two not out of the question.



This morning`s storms should dodge CSV, but by the afternoon
expect additional development around CSV that could cause lower
visibilities and cigs. All other sites will remain VFR with light
winds mainly out of the north.





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