Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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666 FXUS64 KOHX 120524 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1224 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 756 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A seasonably warm day is transitioning into a pleasant evening. High pressure will be centered over the area tonight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A few fog patches may form along the river valleys again late tonight. Temps will dip a little below normal but not quite as cool as last night. Crisp visibility will make for good viewing if the northern lights should develop over our area this evening. Minor adjustments were made to hourly forecast trends, but no major changes were needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper level trough and surface low are making their way east through the Great Lakes with a cold front dropping south and west from the low. This front will approach Middle TN this afternoon and may bring a few light showers to eastern areas. It will also bring some cloud cover for the area. Things do look to clear out by the evening. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70s with comfortable dew points. With the drier air mass in place the fog chances look to remain low tonight but still can`t rule out a little bit of patchy fog to the south and east of Nashville mainly near rivers and in valleys. The Space Weather Prediction Center is continuing to predict significant geomagnetic storming through Sunday. With the clear skies tonight that means we may get another shot at seeing the northern lights but only if they can make it this far south. We will see great weather for Mother`s Day as high pressure builds over the area. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 with comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Things will become a bit more unsettled as we head into the work week. A short wave trough will push into the Plains on Monday and that will bring the return of a more humid air mass. As the humidity builds in we will see the return of shower and thunderstorm chances starting Monday. The trough and cold front will work over Middle TN on Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected on Monday and the chances for severe weather look low on Tuesday but still can`t rule out an isolated strong storm with wind and hail being the threat. A few showers will linger into Wednesday afternoon mainly over eastern areas. Short wave ridge will then build in and that will bring dry weather later Wednesday into Thursday. The dry weather doesn`t look to last too long as another trough will push out of the four corners region late week into next week. This will bring the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs will be cooler on Monday in the 70s and will gradually warm back into the 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Predominately VFR conditions expected through the current TAF period. Patchy fog may develop in some locations between now and 12Z, but not enough confidence to include at this time. Light winds throughout the TAF period with some variability, generally variations between SW and SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 81 59 73 65 / 0 10 40 80 Clarksville 79 57 72 64 / 0 10 50 80 Crossville 73 52 68 57 / 0 0 40 70 Columbia 80 58 72 63 / 0 20 40 70 Cookeville 75 56 70 61 / 0 0 40 70 Jamestown 74 52 71 58 / 0 0 40 70 Lawrenceburg 79 59 71 63 / 0 20 40 70 Murfreesboro 80 57 73 63 / 0 10 30 70 Waverly 81 59 73 63 / 0 20 50 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Adcock