126
FXUS64 KOHX 091100
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
600 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Rain and storm chances become more widespread today and
  Thursday. The overall severe threat this week remains low.

- Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
  will be possible with any storms this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A wave of light to moderate rain continues to lift NE out of the
southwestern part of the CWA. Weakening has been occuring over the
last hour and this is expected to continue as it approaches the
Nashville metro area. Still, the last couple of runs of the HRRR
bring some light rain into the metro area around midnight. Other
than that activity, the main story for the rest of the night will
be some patchy fog in some spots.

The daylight hours on Wednesday will be somewhat similar to Tuesday.
The main difference will be a little more upper level support as
a weak trough moves across the area. This will increase the bulk
shear compared to the last couple of days. Afternoon effective
bulk shear values will be in the 20-25 kt range which could allow
for a couple of more organized updrafts. These stronger updrafts
could produce some strong winds. The atmosphere will again be very
moist with PWAT values ranging from 1.8-2" which will produce
some high rainfall rates. Due to the upper level trough, storms
will be moving which should reduce the flash flood threat.
Nevertheless, the high rain rates may cause some briefing
localized ponding and full ditches.

The activity will once again decrease Wednesday night with the loss
of diurnal heating and as the trough axis moves east of the area.
More scattered storms will develop on Thursday with general
troughing sticking around. Both the global and high res models are
focusing on the eastern third for the higher storm chances on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

As we go into the extended period, the pattern remains unsettled
with mainly diurnal storm activity. Models do show a shortwave
moving across the area on Friday which will keep PoPs in the high
chance to likely range. As we move through the weekend, models show
the upper high beginning to strengthen which may begin to suppress
the diurnal storm coverage as we move into next week. Temperatures
will be around normal to through the weekend with highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s. Temperatures may increase by a couple of degrees
early next week as the upper high strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Patchy fog is impacting portions of southern and eastern Middle TN
this morning with conditions ranging from MVFR to LIFR. Fog will
diminish between 13Z and 14Z. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms is then expected this afternoon. Any direct impacts
to terminals may result in MVFR cigs and visibilities, gusty
winds, and heavy rain. Storm coverage will taper off around 00Z.
But additional fog and low cigs will likely develop overnight,
especially along the Plateau and in other areas that receive rain
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  73  91  72 /  70  30  40  10
Clarksville    86  71  90  72 /  60  20  20  10
Crossville     85  65  84  66 /  80  40  60  20
Columbia       88  70  89  70 /  70  30  40  10
Cookeville     86  68  85  68 /  80  30  60  10
Jamestown      85  67  84  66 /  80  40  50  10
Lawrenceburg   88  69  88  70 /  70  30  40  10
Murfreesboro   90  70  91  70 /  70  30  40  10
Waverly        86  69  89  70 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements