Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 170430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018




Not a ton going on at update time. This latest system due in here
after midnight is looking weaker and weaker. I`ve dropped PoPs a
little after midnight and I think the most apparent thing that
will be seen tonight is an increase in winds. SW winds will become
sustained around 10-12 mph by midnight and only increase from
there as the surface gradient tightens. Gusts close to 30 mph will
become likely by late morning tomorrow, but the rainfall will
likely be very lacking. Latest Hi-Res guidance suggests better
chances near the KY state line and again near the AL state line,
with less likely chances along the I-40 corridor. Will still carry
40-60 PoP through sunrise, then just a chance through the mid-
morning hours on the Plateau.

Seen the 18Z NAM for Monday? Take a peek, then look at some
forecast soundings. It`s worth a look. I don`t get crazy about 18Z
runs, but the GFS, while not as crazy with the instability, has
the shear necessary for severe weather. We are already outlooked
in SPCs Day 4-8 for Monday. Please monitor the forecast for Monday
as we move through the weekend.



Showers and a few thunderstorms are showing up on radar upstream,
and models still have mainly scattered precip chances for
terminals overnight. Also upstream, cigs are MVFR to LIFR, so kept
in mention of MVFR cigs decreasing to IFR by 10Z-11Z. Cigs will
recover to be VFR by mid morning, and southerly/southwesterly winds
will increase to be around 10 to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots
during the afternoon. Winds will eventually be westerly and
northwesterly starting late afternoon and early evening, and
should calm down to 5-10 knots after sunset.





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