Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161945 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong gusty winds will keep temperatures well below normal through Tuesday, with some snow showers west of the Blue Ridge. snow showers dissipate Tuesday morning, though conditions remain quite windy for tomorrow. The next chance of showers arrives late Wednesday as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Monday... Flooding concerns are gradually subsiding as runoff from yesterdays heavy rain works through the system, but some waterways remain out of their banks. See the latest FLS/FLW products for details. Low level flow continues to amplify as short wave energy rotates around the base of the closed low slowly moving through the eastern US. This will keep strong gusty winds across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through Tuesday. This will generate upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge with accumulations of a slushy coating possible at the higher elevations, and up to 3 inches for western Greenbrier in WV where a winter weather advisory is in effect. Will maintain the current wind advisory with the expectation that winds will gradually increase and the advisory may actually need to be extended through the overnight period. Will allow the evening shift to reassess when new data rolls in. Expect the diurnal bloom of Cu to dissipate east of the Blue Ridge tonight and as winds slacken some temperatures may deep near freezing. Since the growing season is now active in the east have issued a frost advisory to cover this possibility. Snow showers will gradually taper off Tuesday morning as the upper low pulls out and allows high pressure to build in. Good mixing in the boundary layer will then allow for another period of strong gusty winds tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal through Tuesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Monday... This portion of the forecast will reflect a synoptic pattern that is progressive, and one that keeps us in a windy to very windy across much of the area. A slow moving upper low will continue to pinwheel over the St. Lawrence Seaway, all while maintaining a still pressure gradient between itself and and building upper ridge across the Mississippi River Valley. The shortwave ridge to our west crosses the area Wednesday afternoon for a brief break in our gusty winds, but a northern stream shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes Wednesday day night into Thursday, bringing a weak cold front through the region. Behind the front, winds will ramp up again with wind threat headlines during this time period. The strong northwest winds will also yield an upslope component that will work with minimal moisture to generate some isolated to scattered rain showers across southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. Enough cold air may work its way into the area for some isolated snow showers across the higher terrain of western Greenbrier and Summers Counties West Virginia late Thursday night. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend cooler to readings some five to ten degrees below normal by Thursday into Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Monday... We will start to see the winds decrease heading into Friday as the upper low over southeast Canada shifts eastward and an upper ridge builds into the Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will make minimal progress eastward during the weekend, all while a southern stream shortwave trough tries to undercut the ridge, and head eastward into the Deep South by Sunday night. Moisture will be advected northward ahead of this of this low into our region with isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday into Monday. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend milder, starting around ten degrees below normal on Friday with readings only a few degrees below normal by Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Monday... Expect windy conditions to affect all TAF sites through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect downslope VFR conditions east of the Blue Ridge while sites west of the Ridge experience MVFR/IFR conditions with upslope snow showers. Expect conditions in the west to improve with VFR all sites by late Tuesday morning, though strong gusty winds will continue. Extended Aviation Discussion... Finally looking at a return to overall VFR on Wednesday with a gusty southwest wind likely ahead of yet another approaching cold front. Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with chance of showers, with gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains. VFR returns Friday although gusty northerly winds to persist as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ023-024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ015>017-022. NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ003>006- 019-020. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001-002-018. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MBS/JH

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