Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221454
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
954 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Another morning of fog across the region, as the southerly low-
level flow continues to advect a warm and moist airmass across the
cool northern Gulf waters. Visibilities will continue to improve
through the rest of the morning, with the clouds breaking up by
early afternoon. Will allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at
15Z. Temperatures will warm rapidly once the sun peaks through,
with near record high temperatures expected again this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [635 AM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast until a trough
moves in on tomorrow night and Sunday. At the surface high pressure
will be over the East Coast. A low will eject from the Rockies
tomorrow. The associated cold front will approach the region
tomorrow night and move through on Sunday. The best chance for rain
will be late tomorrow night through Sunday morning with POPs up to
60 percent. Temps will be above normal tomorrow and may even break
some records. Highs will be in the lower 80s tomorrow. Lows will be
in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night. Sunday highs will be in the
70s as the cold front moves through.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

In the upper levels nearly zonal flow will be in place until a
trough moves in midweek. At the surface high pressure will be in
place Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday a slight wet pattern will
be in place as a disturbance in the Gulf moves eastward. The best
chance for rain looks to be Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper
60s and lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

Degraded flt conds down to LIFR expected to persist into mid/late
morning before improving back to VFR with light southerly winds.
VFR is expected into the overnight hours before another round of
fog and low cigs develops across the area. Have TAFs coming back
down to LIFR late in the period.


.MARINE...

Winds will be light to moderate and southerly until a cold front
moves through on Sunday. Winds will be strong and northerly Sunday
night through Monday morning. Then winds will be moderate and
easterly through midweek.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible high dispersions on Saturday, there are no other
fire weather concerns. Some dense fog is expected both this morning
and overnight tonight.


.HYDROLOGY...

Local river levels are steady or falling and mostly below action
stage. Forecast rain totals for the next five days are 1/2 inch or
less.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  63  82  66  75 /  10  10  10  20  50
Panama City   76  64  75  65  71 /  20  10  20  40  50
Dothan        81  63  81  63  70 /  20  10  20  60  30
Albany        82  61  81  65  72 /  10  20  30  30  50
Valdosta      83  63  83  65  75 /  10  10  20  10  40
Cross City    85  63  84  65  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  74  64  73  66  71 /  20  10  20  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McD



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