Area Forecast Discussion
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889
FXUS62 KTAE 210546
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
146 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

LIFR conditions are forecast at ABY and DHN once again this
morning, as well as some MVFR cigs at ECP, where showers may
arrive around dawn. Restrictions will gradually improve through
the mid-morning hours, though showers and storms will be
widespread today, likely impacting most of our terminals. Expect
IFR restrictions in showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [818 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A similar pattern compared to Sunday with the important difference
being the drier air accompanying the ridge that has advected lower
Precipitable Water values into the region east of the Flint River
and FL Big Bend. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
propagate inland from the Gulf coast late this afternoon, with the
greatest coverage generally west of the Apalachicola and Snake
Rivers. A secondary maxima is likely from the western portion of the
FL Big Bend northeastward into southwest GA. Given the absence of
synoptic scale forcing, precipitation will diminish with the loss of
daytime heating late this evening. Showers and occasional thunder
are expected to redevelop across Gulf waters, and may impact inland
portions of the FL Panhandle west of Apalachicola and the eastern
FL Big Bend including Dixie County, mainly toward dawn. The
redevelopment of patchy fog and some low clouds is expected late
tonight. Low temperatures will be near seasonal levels.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An upper trough will be moving through the upper midwest on Tuesday
with a surface low near Chicago and a cold front dragging south
behind it. A swath of 2.3" PW values will be moving ahead of the
front from NW to SE through Tuesday afternoon. There could be two
different batches or lines of storms on Tuesday with the normal
morning convection initiating along the coast of the FL Panhandle
and moving inland. The pre-frontal trough will develop a line of
storms in central and eastern AL by the early afternoon which will
move southeast. The main upper trough and strongest lift will be
well to the north so the front will get progressively weaker as it
gets this far south. That, combined with losing daytime heating,
will quickly diminish storms as they move south east into the
overnight hours. This will keep a gradient of POPs from 60% in SE
AL down to 20% in the Big Bend area. Just isolated showers and
storms expected Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, with the front moving southeast overnight, showers and
storms will start to redevelop in areas south and east of
Tallahassee. Most of the guidance has showers lingering in the
southeastern areas through at least midnight Wed night and mostly
dry after that. PW values will be dropping behind the front to near
1.5" with surface winds turning northwest.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, rising slightly on
Wednesday when less rain is expected. Lows will be in the lower
70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Although it will be drier on Thursday, the temps will not be
impacted by the cold front...unfortunately. Highs will actually
be warmer than previous days, in the lower 90s. Dew points,
however, will drop to the upper 60s which may make it feel
slightly more pleasant. Even though the mid and upper levels are
dry, lingering low level moisture will keep partly cloudy skies
around.

The lower dew points won`t be around long as easterly flow settles
in over the region on Friday, behind the departing upper low over
the northeast states. Weak shortwaves will move east to west
beneath a developing ridge basically Friday through Monday. As the
ridge builds west each day, the highest pops also shift west.
Should see scattered to numerous showers and storms in the eastern
areas Fri/Sat, shifting to the central areas by Sunday and then
the western areas by Monday.

Highs will be around 90 through the long term with lows in the lower
70s.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas are expected through Tuesday. Winds will
increase slightly mid week as a cold front moves through and
diminish again into the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.

No dense fog is expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

Total forecast rain amounts will average around 1" for most of the
forecast area. Therefore, latest river guidance keeps all rivers
just below action stage. Locally higher amounts are possible and
will likely occur so flashier rivers and streams may still rise as
well as low lying and flood prone areas.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  74  92  72  92 /  60  30  20  10  10
Panama City   87  76  90  74  90 /  70  30  20  10  10
Dothan        88  72  91  71  90 /  70  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  73  91  71  91 /  70  30  10  10  10
Valdosta      90  73  91  72  92 /  60  20  30  10  10
Cross City    90  75  91  74  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  78  89  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...LN



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