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000
FXUS62 KTAE 071553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1053 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Made only minor adjustments to the forecast for today. Overall,
surface high pressure will remain in control. Some increase in
high clouds will occur through the day from an upstream trough
into northern Mexico.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure overhead has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s
for much of the region so far, with with a few areas still clinging
to the upper 30s to near 40. Winds are forecast to remain light or
calm and with clear skies holding, temps should drop some over the
next few hours. Lows for this morning will generally be in the low
to mid 30s for SE AL and SW GA, with perhaps a colder pocket of the
upper 20s being possible between and along the Chattahoochee and
Flint Rivers. At the coast, temps will be in the upper 30s to near
40, while the FL Panhandle temps drop to the low to mid 30s and the
Big Bend bottoms out in the mid to upper 30s. Frost is expected for
much of the area, with the coastal zones remaining under a Frost
Advisory until 7AM CT / 8AM ET.

After that, we can expect a cool and partly to mostly sunny December
day. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 50s to low 60s in our
SW GA and SE AL counties and in the low to mid 60s for the FL
counties. Tonight, low temperatures will be improved compared
today`s as the range from the upper 30s and low 40s in our AL and GA
counties, and in the low to mid 40s for the FL counties. |

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

We`ll be stuck between an H5 ridge over the Caribbean and a trough
digging into the Rockies, which means southwesterly flow aloft
through much of the period. A few perturbations within the
southwesterly flow are forecast to roll over the region.
Southeasterly to southerly flow at the surface will increase
moisture enough to possible squeeze out a couple of showers in the
Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama Friday night into
Saturday as the perturbations move overhead.

Rain chances are forecast to increase Saturday night as the H5
trough and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley.
Bulk shear values values between 40 to 50 knots are expected
Saturday night as a low-level jet at 850mb strengthens over the
region. Instability appears to be lacking, with MUCAPE values
generally below 500 J/kg for much of the area with higher values
just west of the region. Therefore, have included a slight chance
for thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday night.

Temperatures are forecast to climb from near normal Friday, or
middle to upper 60s, to the middle 70s Saturday afternoon. Overnight
temperatures will also be on the increase thanks to southerly flow
with lows in the 50s Friday night and the lower 60s Saturday night
ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The aforementioned H5 trough continues to push east as it attempts
to become a little more neutrally tilted. At the surface, a cold
front will be moving through the southeast, which will be the main
focus for showers and storms on Sunday. The severity of the storms
remains very much in question, but a strengthening low-level jet at
850mb to 30 to 40 knots, MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg, and bulk
shear values between 35 to 45 knots means an isolated strong storm
or two cannot be totally ruled out. This event is a couple of days
away, so we`ll closely monitor the trends over the next couple of
days.

With regards to rain, generally 0.5" to 2.0" of rain is expected
with locally higher amounts possible. Precipitable water values
(PWATs) are forecast to be above the 90th percentile for mid-
December, or between 1.5" to 1.8", so locally heavy rain is possible
as the line of showers and storms heads east. The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has maintained Saturday`s Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle and the entire area for Sunday.

Clouds and rain, maybe a few storms, help keep temperatures
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps through the region. Following the cold front, overnight
lows are forecast to tumble into the 30s Sunday night and Monday
night before moderating as we head into next week. Daytime highs
next week will follow a similar warming trend with middle 50s
expected Monday afternoon, upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday, and 60s
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Calm winds this morning will become light and easterly this
morning. By the afternoon winds become south or southeasterly
before going calm overnight. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Surface high pressure across the region will keep mostly favorable
marine conditions in the forecast through Friday as winds turn more
easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. An incoming cold front
will bring a chance for showers and storms before turning the winds
more out of the northwest late Saturday night through Sunday, with
advisory conditions expected Sunday into Sunday night. While not
explicitly forecast, Gale conditions cannot be completely ruled out
for Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The main fire weather concern will be area wide low dispersions
today and tomorrow. High pressure exits the region Friday, allowing
for a brief change in the weather pattern. Wetting rain is forecast
over the weekend, with dry weather returning around the start of the
work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The Aucilla River at Lamont remains in Minor Flood stage, but is
forecast drop into Action stage later today.

A cold front is forecast to swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday with 0.5" to 2" expected for much of the region.
Fortunately, this system is expected to move through here quickly,
so flooding concerns remain low at this time. However, locally heavy
rain remains possible and may result in nuisance flooding in more
urban or low-lying areas.

While no riverine flooding is anticipated, some of the rivers
remaining in action stage could rise back into minor flood stage
depending on where the heaviest rain falls, which is still
uncertain at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  43  66  57 /   0   0  10  20
Panama City   61  48  67  60 /   0   0  20  40
Dothan        59  40  64  54 /   0   0  10  40
Albany        59  38  65  53 /   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      61  42  67  54 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  46  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  60  51  67  61 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Reese