Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260728
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
328 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A potent upper-level shortwave will become negatively tilted and
move eastward just to our northwest today, with a low pressure
center under this feature moving across northern AL into NW GA
during the afternoon and early evening. During this time, a cold
front will move into northwestern portions of our area, with deep
layer moisture increasing to 1-1.5" across our area ahead of the
front. The strongest mid-upper level forcing will be present across
our northern/northwestern areas during this time, with strong PV
advection over our northern tier of counties. Instability will not
be too impressive in these areas but could increase to 500-1000 J/kg
during the afternoon and early evening. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50
kts is possible for our northern locations, as well as mid-level
lapse rates from 7-8 C/km across our area.

SPC has added a marginal risk of severe weather across our far
northern counties in SW Georgia, and considering the aforementioned
parameters and forcing it appears that isolated large hail and
possibly damaging winds are the main threats. Low-level shear and
helicity values do not appear supportive of a tornado threat in our
area at this time. Chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will decrease farther south and east across our area due to
progressively weaker forcing. High temperatures will range from the
mid 70s across our far western and coastal locations to lower 80s
across the inland FL Big Bend and much of southwest GA.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The potent shortwave discussed above will lift through the Mid-
Atlantic overnight, with a weaker northern stream shortwave
dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers will be coming
to an end across south-central Georgia during the early evening
hours, but should be on the increase in the far eastern Gulf as a
weak southern stream wave passes over the cold front exiting the
region. As the northern stream wave from the Mississippi Valley
moves across the region on Friday, no rain is expected, just some
low-level cloudiness. The eastern CONUS trough will begin to lift
out of the Southeast on Saturday, with clear skies and no rain
expected.

As far as temperatures are concerned, it`s expected to be quite
pleasant, with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s on Friday,
and the upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Saturday. Mid to upper 50s
are expected tonight, with low 50s forecast on Friday night.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will be removed from the Southeast by
early next week, with deep layer ridging taking over for the
duration of the extended range forecast period. As low-level flow
initially veers southerly on Tuesday, expect an increase in
cloudiness as weak isentropic ascent commences over the coastal
front. At this time it appears as though any showers associated
with this will remain west of the Tri-State region. Expect highs
in the 80s and lows in the 50s each day/night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout this morning at all terminals
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. West-southwesterly winds
will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible at ECP, DHN
and ABY in the afternoon and early evening. During this time,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across our northern and
western areas, with brief visibility reductions possible at DHN and
ABY. VFR conditions will generally prevail, and winds will decrease
below 10 kts after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds are expected to increase to Cautionary levels today as an
area of low pressure passes through the Southeast. They`re
forecast to subside below headline levels by tonight, and remain
relatively low through the weekend. Early next week, nocturnal
easterly wind surges to Cautionary or Advisory levels are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are likely across northern Florida this
afternoon and early evening. However, RH values will not reach
critical thresholds as minimum values will generally range from 40
to 60 percent. As a result, fire weather concerns are not
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Average rainfall amounts across southeast Alabama and south
Georgia are expected to remain below 0.25" today. Elsewhere,
little to no rain is expected. After today, rain is not in the
forecast through next week. Thus, flooding is not a concern.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  58  76  53  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  60  71  58  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  54  73  53  77 /  80   0   0   0   0
Albany        80  55  73  52  77 /  70  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  59  78  53  78 /  30  10   0   0   0
Cross City    80  63  79  52  79 /   0  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  61  72  59  75 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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