Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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778
FXUS62 KTAE 230001
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
801 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Longwave upper troughing continues with its axis centered over
Missouri and southwesterly flow aloft prevailing. A Bermuda ridge
will poke its western edge closer to the east coast of FL, though
the large scale troughing regime will keep it off to our east with
the wet pattern persisting through at least the near term.
Predominately south-southwesterly surface winds will continue
pumping ample moisture into the forecast area yielding another day
with PWATs ranging from 2-2.5". As such, widespread airmass pulse
convection appearing likely once again tomorrow afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall also appears possible, especially if the
higher end range of the PWATs are realized which may lead to
localized nuisance flooding.

Another warm and humid evening appears likely with lows across
our AL and GA counties dropping into the low to mid 70s with mid
to upper 70s across our FL counties. Tomorrows high temperatures
will generally range from the low to mid 90s in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon
Jul 22 2024

Confidence has increased in a pretty wet pattern developing
Wednesday when a weak tropical wave interacts with an upper trough
just to our NW. An abundance of moisture (i.e., 2.4-2.6" peak PW)
should fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Heavy rain leading to instances of flooding will be a
concern under such a set up. Axis of highest precipitation spreads
from south to north, initially from the Suwannee Valley/Apalachee
Bay during the short-term period.

The potentially complex synoptic interactions bear watching as
some model guidance (notably the NAM) suggests an area of low
pressure may form inland over Southern AL on Wednesday, which
could lead to convective enhancement via a weak low-level jet
(25-30 kts) and locally backed winds. Another words, semi-
organized severe weather may be in play.

Elevated rain chances combined with abundant cloud cover should
keep temperatures closer to the 90-degree mark (isolated upper 80s
possible). Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 70s away
from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Lingering tropical moisture maintains high PoP to close out the
work week, so heavy rain potential will continue to be the main
focus. By this weekend, global models agree on an upper ridge
building over the region, which should revert us to a more typical
summertime pattern. However, the base of an upper trough sliding
down the Mid- Atlantic states may bring a backdoor front our way
around Monday. High temperatures range from the upper 80s to low
90s (near to slightly below normal), while lows stay mostly in the
mid 70s (well above normal).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. There
could be patches of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis that develop overnight,
mainly from 08-12z Tuesday morning that affect either DHN, ABY,
VLD, or TLH, but confidence in the development of those
restrictions is low. Slightly drier air could suppress
thunderstorm development some tomorrow but scattered storms are
still possible at all TAF sites, mainly from 18z-00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Outside of daily thunderstorm potential, generally pleasant
boating conditions prevail. Southerly winds at around 10 knots or
less continue with seas of 1 to 2 feet into at least mid next
week. Any maritime convection will be capable of localized gusty
winds, higher waves, frequent lightning, and possible waterspouts.
A weak tropical wave entering the Eastern Gulf around mid week
likely enhances thunderstorm chances and may modestly increase
wave heights. This more active weather persists heading into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

There are currently no fire weather concerns at this time with
daily chances of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast. This wet
pattern is forecast to persist through the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Wet weather continues for much of the work week and is likely to
increase further mid to late week as abundant tropical moisture
overspreads the region. Heavy rain capable of localized and/or
flash flooding is possible during this period, particularly
Wednesday- Friday. The WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall in their Day 3-5 Outlook from the N-NW Gulf
States across the Appalachians down to the Lower MS Valley. In
terms of local rivers, all basins are still in good shape, though
some rises are possible in the near future depending on where the
axis of highest precipitation materializes.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  93  76  89 /  20  70  30  80
Panama City   78  91  77  88 /  20  70  50  80
Dothan        72  92  74  89 /  40  70  30  80
Albany        72  93  75  89 /  40  60  30  80
Valdosta      74  96  76  92 /  20  60  40  80
Cross City    75  93  75  92 /  30  70  50  60
Apalachicola  78  89  79  87 /  20  70  60  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...IG3