Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 030540
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1240 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

A mix of LIFR/IFR conditions is expected to prevail through most
of the overnight hours as low ceilings and light rain/drizzle
affect the area. Most terminals have switched to a northwest wind,
but our eastern terminals across the Big Bend/Southern GA will
see this switch in the next few hours. Expect these LIFR/IFR
restrictions to persist through at least 16z, with gradual
improvements to MVFR expected after that as clearing conditions
moving in from the west this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [805 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Latest radar trends indicate the heaviest rainfall, along with a
little embedded thunder, is now moving into our AL counties.
Rainfall over the past 12 hours has been light to moderate with
amounts of a half inch or less.  The band of heaviest rain, an
additional two inches or so, still looks to set up from near Dothan
across Albany and Tifton.  Minor nuisance flooding is possible but
widespread flash flooding is not expected.  South of the heavier
rain band around an inch is possible with locally higher amounts.
Potential for stronger storms still exists late this evening over
the waters and very near the Gulf across the Big Bend.  The rain
will exit the area very quickly after midnight with basically dry
conditions expected by 12Z Wednesday. Drier air will slowly work in
on Wednesday allowing a gradual clearing with sunshine boosting
temperatures back into the 60s for most of us.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

With high pressure dominating post-low pressure passage, we can
expected the short term to be clear, cool, and dry. Expect
overnight lows to be in the low to mid 40s, daytime highs are
expected to hover around 70 degrees.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Through the long term a shortwave will dig south into southeast
CONUS throughout the day on Friday and slightly pullback a trough
positioned over the east coast. According to current model guidance,
this shortwave keeps most of its shower activity offshore Friday
night into Saturday morning. This is expected to be a light event
with limited upper-level support, however, a reinforced short of
cooler air is expected to advect into our region. After this
shortwave clears out of the area Saturday afternoon we`ll once again
be clear, cool, and dry through the remainder of the long term.
Expect overnight lows to be in the 40s, with daytime highs in the
60s rebounding into the low 70s post-frontal passage.


.MARINE...

A period of SCA conditions is likely late today through Wednesday
morning as an area of low pressure crosses the waters. Winds will
become variable late today into the evening as the low moves through
then switch to offshore as the low passes. The gusty offshore flow
will continue through Wednesday morning before winds begin to
subside below advisory levels. A period of dense marine fog is
possible ahead of the low pressure over Apalachee bay this evening
into the early morning as the low pressure approaches but this will
dissipate as it passes.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Recent wet conditions will preclude elevated fire concerns for the
next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Through 18Z, rainfall thus far today has been fairly light,
generally about a half inch across portions of Southeast Alabama and
South Georgia, but more is on the way. Afternoon models are
suggesting an additional 2-2.5 inches, and there could be some
locally heavier amounts across South Georgia, particularly between
Albany and Tifton later tonight. While there is some concern for
localized flooding, the expected rainfall amounts shouldn`t generate
widespread flash flood issues, thus it doesn`t appear a flash flood
watch is necessary at this time.

on riverine impacts, the expected rainfall this evening will lead to
increased releases from upstream on the Chattahoochee River. If
releases on the Chattahoochee River hit the plan target, then this
will result in further releases downstream into the Apalachicola
River. the possibility exists that Blountstown could once again
reach flood stage later this week. Elsewhere, if rainfall amounts
remain below 3.5 inches, riverine flooding is unlikely along the
Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks or at other locations down
through the Flint Basin. However, the forecast amounts do appear
sufficient to get near or just above minor flood levels in the
upper portion of the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins.

Ongoing flooding continues for the Middle Suwannee, but with
Luraville cresting, that location should drop below flood stage in
the next couple of days. Downstream at Branford and Rock Bluff,
flooding should continue into next week. Rainfall with the system
coming through Georgia this evening, will not have a noticeable
impact on downstream river conditions in the Suwannee. Thus, while
river levels will continue slowly rising at Wilcox and Manatee
Springs, it is looking more and more likely that these two locations
will not reach minor flood stage in this event.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  45  70  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   63  48  69  48  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        61  41  67  44  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        61  42  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  43  69  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    68  46  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  48  67  49  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Johnstone
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Johnstone
FIRE WEATHER...Johnstone
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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