Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
357 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A subtle upper level disturbance will traverse the region today,
yielding light showers, mainly over the Gulf of Mexico. Light
scattered showers could spread inland this afternoon, affecting
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy conditions will prevail across the region, keeping diurnal
temperature swings limited today. Expect highs general in the mid
70s region-wide.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Scattered light showers over the Florida panhandle and big bend
today will shift southward tonight. Not much in the way of action
is expected for Wednesday with another dry day. As we head into
Thursday, a stronger area of low pressure is expected to move
eastward along the northern Gulf coast with access to deep
moisture as precipitable water values rise to near 2 inches along
the coast. The result will be widespread rain across the area on
Thursday with a few embedded thunderstorms possible with locally
heavy rain. The surface warm front is expected to stay near the
coast, so surface based instability is expected to be limited
inland and severe weather is not currently expected. However, a
small amount of instability above the boundary layer could allow
for a few rumbles of thunder even well north of the warm front
with MUCAPE values of a couple hundred j/kg possible. High
temperatures will be held down on Thursday across the area, and
the forecast trended toward a pure raw model blend like CONSRaw
and away from MOS guidance, SuperBlend, and NBM with a dynamic
system moving through.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The area of low pressure responsible for Thursday`s inclement
weather will likely still be bringing rain across the area into
Friday. Drier weather is expected for this weekend with
temperatures a few degrees below average behind the low pressure


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions through the period with light northerly winds and BKN
to OVC CIGs. There is a chance for -SHRA in the vicinity of ECP
later this morning and this afternoon. Minimal impacts expected from
this activity.



Winds and seas will increase by mid-week as an area of low
pressure moves eastward along the Gulf coast. Advisory conditions
are possible on Thursday and Friday as the low passes through the
area. Winds will become northwesterly behind the system for this
weekend and remain elevated.



Aside from low dispersions today, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not expected. Elevated chances for wetting rains are expected on



Rainfall totals this week are expected to be in the 1-3 inch range
across the area with the heaviest rain coming in the Thursday-
Friday time frame. Localized amounts around 4 inches could occur
across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend on Thursday.
Some ponding of water in poor drainage areas is possible on
Thursday, and travel conditions on some dirt roads will become
poor. All main stem rivers are currently below action stage with
the exception of the lower Chipola River, which is continuing to
fall through action stage. Main stem river flooding is not
expected at this time.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   75  60  80  62  68 /  30  10   0  10  90
Panama City   74  62  80  65  70 /  50  20  10  30  90
Dothan        73  54  77  58  61 /  20   0   0  10  90
Albany        73  54  78  57  62 /  10   0   0  10  90
Valdosta      75  58  79  59  69 /  20  10   0  10  70
Cross City    80  62  83  65  75 /  30  20  10  10  70
Apalachicola  76  64  80  68  73 /  50  30  10  20  90




NEAR TERM...Pullin
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