Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 282311
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog was added to the FL Panhandle and Big Bend early
Sunday morning within the higher dew point air mass on the
heels of this evening`s sea-breeze passage. No other changes
from the near term section below.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

Aside from brief MVFR in fog at ECP, TLH, and VLD around 10z,
VFR conditions prevail. Southerly winds around 5 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure settles over the waters with favorable boating
conditions, aside from seas nearing 3 feet at times, outside
of Apalachee Bay Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds at or below 15
knots through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [245 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Overall surface high pressure will remain in place tomorrow,
which will lead to another sunny and hot day, but generally
pleasant. Surface winds are however expected to transition to
southerly during the late morning hours on Sunday, which will
start to increase PWAT values across coastal areas in Florida.
This will also lead to a slight enhancement to the seabreeze,
which was predominantly pinned to the coast today due to constant
northerly to northwesterly flow. Given the slight increase in
PWAT values to around 1.1 to 1.4 inches tomorrow, coupled with an
enhancement in the seabreeze, a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend can`t be
ruled out. Chances still remain low (roughly 15- 20%); however,
because a rather significant dry layer will be present just above
the 700mb layer across the region tomorrow. This will limit the
growth of any CU that tries to develop. High temperatures tomorrow
will be warm in the low 90s areawide. Low temperatures overnight
tonight, will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

An upper-level High over the Mid-Atlantic states will draw in
moisture from the Atlantic over our region for Memorial Day. This
will allow for showers and thunderstorms to form along the sea-
breeze boundaries that will move onshore during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly in the FL Big Bend region and around the
I-75 corridor with PoPs of 40%. Monday morning will start out in
the upper 60s and is expected to warm to the low 90s for the
afternoon High.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Upper-level High along with a surface High will prevail over
the region through the beginning of the long term. With easterly
flow, we can expect typical summer diurnal shower activity from
the seabreeze. Temperatures will also be pretty warm with Highs
approaching the mid-90s in the latter half of the week. Morning
lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Afternoon PoPs will be
low (< 30%) with isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly located in the SE Big Bend region.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Transport winds on Sunday will become southerly through the late
morning to early afternoon areawide. They will also be rather
light at around 5 to 10 mph across the region. With rather clear
conditions expected tomorrow, mixing heights will climb to near
7000 ft. Dispersions are not expected to be high tomorrow;
however, because of the lower afternoon transport winds. A chance
for seabreeze thunderstorms in the afternoon will be possible
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. These storms could
possible push into SE Alabama and SW Georgia later in the evening;
however, confidence is low on there being more than just isolated
coverage of storms.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns over the next several days as the
weather is shaping up to be quieter compared to this past week.
Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms are Monday and
Tuesday, but forecast amounts are low at generally less than a
half- inch over the FL Big Bend and portions of southwest GA. In
terms of rivers, Choctawhatchee at Caryville approaches action
stage Sunday afternoon, but looks to crest, then drop off
thereafter.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  90  67  92  68 /  10  30   0  20  10
Panama City   69  85  69  87  70 /  10  20   0  10  10
Dothan        63  87  65  89  66 /   0  20   0  20  10
Albany        65  91  68  93  68 /   0  20   0  20  10
Valdosta      65  91  67  92  67 /  10  20   0  40  10
Cross City    67  91  67  93  67 /   0  10   0  40  20
Apalachicola  70  84  70  85  72 /  10  20   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery


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