Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181900
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Thanks to an upper level shortwave trough digging into the region,
convection across the area this afternoon and evening will be more
widespread than we`ve seen the past few days, especially over the FL
Panhandle and southeast AL. So far today, a few of these storms have
produced wind gusts up to 30 kts, but the threat for damaging wind
gusts is expected to increase slightly this afternoon as the
shortwave makes its way further east. Storm coverage and the severe
threat will lower after sunset, but there could be a few storms that
into the overnight hours. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Southwesterly flow will remain the dominant flow for the next few
days as an upper level shortwave propagates eastward through the
Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic regions through Friday. The stronger
forcing and shear will remain well to the north of our CWA;
however, low level moisture will be plentiful, which will likely
lead to daily scattered convection. A few strong storms will be
possible each day through Friday. Some areas that have already
seen locally heavy amounts may need to be monitored over the next
few days, especially if storms start to train over the same
regions. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to lower
90s, which is near normal for this time of the year. Lows are
expected to remain in the low to mid 70s, which is slightly above
normal.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The current active pattern through the work week is expected to
come to an end by Saturday as upper level ridging develops over
our area behind the aforementioned shortwave trough. Surface high
pressure is expected to develop over if not near our region
keeping winds variable through the majority of the long term. Low
level moisture is expected to remain high with surface dewpoints
forecasted to remain in the low to mid 70s across much of the
area. There is some uncertainty in the long term through the
weekend and early next week with PoP chances. The GFS develops
daily seabreeze convection; however, the EURO remains dry through
the remainder of the period. Given that PW values will be moderate
over our region, it is not out of the question that the seabreeze
will develop and provide a few scattered thunderstorms for coastal
regions. Highs are expected to climb back into the upper 90s which
is above normal for this time of the year. Lows will also be above
normal as they remain in the mid 70s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

TSRA across the area today, but particularly numerous over our
western sites, could bring temporary reductions in cigs and vsbys
along with wind gusts to around 25 kts. Chances for RA/TSRA will
lower to around 30-40% overnight and then rise again in the late
morning hours on Wednesday. MVFR cigs possible Wednesday morning,
mostly near DHN, ABY, and VLD. Winds will generally be from the SSW
at around 10kts or less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds are expected the next few days with winds increasing
to exercise caution levels Wednesday and Thursday. While showers
and thunderstorms are possible each day, the highest chances
remain on Wednesday and Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high afternoon dispersion indices the next few days,
there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Even though the next few days will be active, widespread rainfall
amounts are expected to remain around an inch or less. Localized
areas may see minor flooding and higher amounts with heavier
downpours and training storms possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  73  91  74 /  40  50  20  60  30
Panama City   76  86  78  86  78 /  40  40  20  50  30
Dothan        72  90  74  91  74 /  30  40  10  60  30
Albany        73  90  75  92  75 /  30  50  10  60  40
Valdosta      72  89  73  90  73 /  30  50  20  60  30
Cross City    73  86  74  88  75 /  30  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  76  85  77  86  77 /  40  50  20  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Bunker


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