Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050525
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

VFR should prevail through the TAF away from showers and storms.
Storms may be a bit more prevalent today than yesterday, but
should still remain scattered in nature. VLD/TLH/ABY are the
terminals with the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm later
today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1023 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Wednesday]...

A weak surface trough is currently sitting across southern middle GA
and near Tallahassee. Due to this convergence, showers and a few
thunderstorms are developing along it. Not much lightning right now
but we should see some strengthening in the next hour or two. The
atmosphere is very dry so wouldn`t expect too strong of storms. With
light winds though, some minor flooding under the storms that don`t
move much is possible. Showers will quickly dissipate after sunset.
Lows will be in the lower 70s. A trough to the west continues to
approach on Wednesday with southwesterly winds aloft bringing more
moisture into the area. Convergence between the trough and the east
coast seabreeze will cause higher rain/storm chances in the eastern
half of the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat
index values around 99-102.


.SHORT & LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with the
greatest coverage across the eastern areas where a remnant stalled
front and the Atlantic seabreeze will interact. Upper level
troughing will continue to lift northeastward, leading to more zonal
flow aloft before ridging slides in over the state from the East
late week into the weekend. While showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible across the eastern areas each afternoon, the
ridging will help raise already warm temperatures well into the mid
90s Friday through Sunday.


.MARINE...

Favorable boating conditions are expected through the next
several days with winds generally near or below 10 knots and seas
around 1 foot. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible
around thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast again for Wednesday
and Thursday. Moisture will be increased through the next few days
although RH values will remain above minimum thresholds. 20ft winds
remain light with transport winds around 10 MPH out of the southwest.
Fog is not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns over the next several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  95  73  95 /  30  20  30  10  50
Panama City   89  78  90  76  91 /  10   0  20  10  40
Dothan        95  72  94  72  95 /  20  10  20   0  30
Albany        95  73  95  74  96 /  40  20  30  10  40
Valdosta      95  74  93  73  93 /  40  30  50  10  60
Cross City    94  75  93  74  92 /  40  30  60  20  60
Apalachicola  90  78  90  76  90 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield


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