Area Forecast Discussion
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369
FXUS62 KTAE 201438
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.UPDATE...

A few minor tweaks were made to PoPs and temps this morning, but
the overall forecast for today remains unchanged from earlier this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [615 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weak upper level trough axis will continue to bisect the area
today from southwest to northeast. The axis of deepest moisture is
expected to reside across the western half of the area today with
precipitable water values around 2 inches. Thus, the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the Florida
panhandle and southeast Alabama this afternoon with PoPs around 60
percent. Elsewhere, rain chances are expected to be in the 40-50
percent range. High temperatures will generally range from the
middle 80s to lower 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the rest of the week. The
upper level trough/PV anomaly will continue to meander over the
southeastern CONUS, as will the axis of deep moisture. At the lower
levels, the area will remain on the western fringe of a ridge of
high pressure. In terms of forcing, the main factor will be the
seabreeze both Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the 1000-700 mb
flow will be light and from the southeast, rendering the highest
chances for storms in the coastline convergence zone along the
Apalachicola River. On Thursday, the 1000-700 mb flow will be more
south/southwesterly, with the highest chances in the FL Panhandle
and southeast AL. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in
the low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The diurnal/seabreeze driven convection will continue into next week
with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking inland each
afternoon and offshore each morning. The highest coverage of storms
will be Sunday and Monday when rich moisture returns to the area.
Highs will continue to be mostly in the low 90s and lows mostly in
the low 70s.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Wednesday] Patchy low ceilings ranging from MVFR to
IFR will lift and become VFR this morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area from south to north
through the day. VFR conditions are expected in the afternoon away
from storms.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain low through the period outside of
thunderstorms, which will peak in the late night and early morning
hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Steinhatchee River is continuing its broad peak in minor (almost
moderate) flood stage from the heavy rainfall this past weekend, as
is the Fenholloway River. No additional flooding is forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring around 1-2" of rain
to the area through Saturday. As we head into next week and deeper
moisture returns, there will be a higher chance for heavier
rainfall.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  74  93  73  92 /  30  20  40  10  40
Panama City   87  75  89  76  88 /  40  10  40  20  40
Dothan        87  71  92  72  91 /  60  20  40  10  50
Albany        89  73  92  73  92 /  40  20  30  20  40
Valdosta      90  73  91  73  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  73  90  73  91 /  50  30  30  20  30
Apalachicola  87  76  88  77  87 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



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