Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 141416
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...

A few showers are currently moving across SE AL and SW GA so have
raised PoPs in those areas this morning. Weak cold front remains
stretched from the western FL panhandle into SE AL. Raised PoPs
this afternoon as a subtle shortwave moves over the area and in
vicinity of the front, a few showers and isold storms are expected
to develop. T/Td/Winds are reasonable with only minor adjustments.
Highs will range through the 80s with the warmer side near the
coast and Big Bend areas east of the front and maximized sunshine.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [540 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The combination of a stalled frontal boundary and increasing
moisture with weak upper disturbances approaching the area will
allow for the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms to
develop today. However, rain chances will remain low (around 20
percent or less today) until greater upper level forcing arrives
starting late tonight. Afternoon high temperatures today will
generally be in the 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels, near zonal flow will be over the region until a
trough moves in on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will linger over the region until a cold front moves
through on Wednesday. Chances for rain and thunder will increase
tonight. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
tomorrow through Wednesday evening with POPs up to 80 percent. Skies
will be mostly cloudy. Highs will be mainly in the 80s with upper
70s in the northernmost counties. Lows will be in the 60s and lower
70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels, a trough will remain over the Southeast until a
ridge builds in on Friday. At the surface, cold, dry air will move
in behind the front on Wednesday night. Wet weather may return by
the weekend as another low pressure system approaches. The best
chance for rain will be Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the
70s on Thursday. Highs will return to the 80s by Friday or Saturday.
Lows will be in the 50s.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Tuesday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings early this
morning are expected to become VFR later this morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail afterwards for the remainder of
the day, although mid-level cloud cover will gradually be
increasing.


.MARINE...

Light southeasterly winds will increase slightly by tomorrow.
Moderate winds will be southwesterly by tomorrow night. Moderate
winds will become northerly as a cold front moves through on
Wednesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front is expected to bring the first widespread rainfall in
over a month across the area from Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the
front, a dry airmass is expected for Thursday and Friday, but
relative humidity values are expected to stay above red flag
levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

River levels are low. Rain chances will increase tonight but the
best chance for rain will be tomorrow through Wednesday evening.
Forecast rainfall totals range from 0.25-0.5 in the FL Big Bend to 1
to 3 inches in parts of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. With ongoing
drought conditions, flooding is not a concern.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  87  70  87 /  20  30  40  60  60
Panama City   87  72  86  73  85 /  30  30  40  70  60
Dothan        83  67  81  68  80 /  30  50  70  80  50
Albany        84  69  80  70  81 /  30  50  70  80  50
Valdosta      87  69  83  70  83 /  20  40  60  60  60
Cross City    88  69  88  72  86 /   0  10  20  50  70
Apalachicola  84  72  84  73  83 /  10  10  30  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD


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