908
FXUS62 KTAE 211728
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1228 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

-A Winter Storm is expected across the area today and tonight
 with potentially significant snowfall and ice accumulation
 totals.

-Everywhere could see a mixture of precipitation types, although areas
 further north and west are more likely to get snow while areas
 south and east are more likely to get sleet and/or freezing rain.

-There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of significant and very
 impactful ice accumulation across portions of the FL Big Bend
 and south Central Georgia. If realized, significant impacts to
 trees and power lines are likely.

-Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast across portions of
 the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and SW Georgia, although there is a
 low to medium chance (20-40%) of accumulations of 6+ inches.

-Regardless of wintry precipitation, extremely cold temperatures
 and dangerous wind chills are expected overnight. Forecast wind
 chills are in the 4 to 17 degree range, which can absolutely be
 dangerous or even deadly to unprotected persons.

A developing low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
is already bringing snow and ice to the Texas and Louisiana coasts
this morning. This system will continue to deepen and move
eastward towards the area today as a shortwave swings across the
base of a large trough positioned over much of the CONUS.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring increasing
moisture up over a layer of much colder, drier air at the surface.
As precipitation falls into this layer at the surface, it will
gradually cool and moisten over time. Once enough moistening
occurs, wintry precip will begin to reach the surface and
accumulate.

Surface temperatures will matter quite a bit for eventual impacts of
wintry precipitation. The sooner temps fall below freezing, the
sooner accumulation of snow and/or ice will begin. It`s a bit
concerning that we`re already seeing some returns aloft on radar
across the area this morning, indicating that we may be getting a
quicker start to the moistening of the surface layer than previously
expected and therefore a sooner onset of impacts. For that reason,
we have pushed up the Winter Storm Warnings by a couple of hours to
account for this.

Mixed precipitation will be possible everywhere, although areas
roughly from Panama City over to Tifton are most likely to see
mostly snow. Areas further southeast including Apalachicola,
Tallahassee, and Valdosta are more likely to see a mix of rain,
snow, sleet and freezing rain. The Southeast Big Bend (Perry, Cross
City) are more likely to see predominantly rain and freezing rain.
These differences are likely to hinge on razor thin changes in the
surface temps and vertical thermal profile which could very easily
change.

Snow and ice accumulation amounts remain similar to the previous
forecast if not increased just a bit. 2 to 4 inches of snow are
possible across portions of the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and SW
Georgia with lower amounts elsewhere. Ice accumulation of .1 to .25
inches are possible across the FL Big Bend and south central GA.
However, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) that a band (or
bands) of heavier precipitation sets up somewhere over the area.
Models are suggesting frontogenesis may occur along a southwest to
northeast oriented line at the 850 to 700mb level. Wherever that
occurs could really enhance precipitation rates and lead to more
accumulation than expected. If in the snowy area, I would not be
surprised if we saw 6+ inches of snow underneath that band. If it
occurs over the sleet/freezing rain area (particularly the FL Big
Bend and south central GA), significant and impactful ice
accumulation will be possible.

Regardless of winter precipitation, dangerously cold conditions are
expected tonight with low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s and
wind chills ranging from 4 to 17 degrees. However, if there is more
snow/ice accumulation than expected or even earlier in the afternoon
than expected, temperatures may fall faster and end up even colder
than currently forecast.

Please, please take this system seriously. Finish your cold weather
preparations this morning and be prepared to lose power and avoid
travel for a couple of days. Check on your neighbors, family, and
friends; particularly the elderly or other vulnerable
populations. Take care of any animals, pipes, or plants. Playing
in the snow is fun, but make sure you are dressed warmly in loose
fitting layers and change into warm and dry clothing as soon as
you`re done. Monitor for signs of hypothermia and frostbite.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

The wintry precipitation will be winding down Wednesday morning as
sunshine returns to the sky Wednesday afternoon. That sunshine will
be deceiving as temperatures will struggle to climb much out of
the 30s for much of the region. Any melting of the snow and/or ice
will come to a halt Wednesday night as temperatures tumble back
into the 20s, maybe even the 10s if any snow is left on the ground
at your location. As a result, black ice is a concern Wednesday
night. Temperatures climb about 5 to 8 degrees for Thursday and
Thursday night, so still in the mid-upper 40s for highs and the
mid-upper 20s for lows. Additional cold weather headlines are
likely both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

Surface high pressure over the Southeast Friday will mosey into the
western Atlantic Saturday, allowing for a warming trend to commence
in earnest this weekend. Daytime highs will climb back into the 50s
Friday and Saturday and the 60s Sunday and Monday; overnight lows
follow a similar trend with another night in the 20s Friday night
before warming into the lower 30s Saturday night and finally back
near normal, or upper 30s/lower 40s Sunday Night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

Conditions are expected to deteriorate from west to east over the
next few hours as a winter storm moves through the area. Moderate
to heavy mixed precipitation will be possible with IFR conditions
expected with LIFR conditions possible at times. Precip will
gradually end from northwest to southeast between 06Z-12Z tomorrow
morning. VFR conditions are expected after sunrise tomorrow
morning. Temps look to remain at or below freezing across all
terminals until late tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

A low pressure center will move eastward across the southern Gulf on
Tuesday, increasing northerly breezes. On Tuesday afternoon and
evening, frequent gale force gusts are expected. Winds will decrease
throughout the day Wednesday as a high pressure ridge approaches
from the northwest, then a reinforcing cold front on Thursday will
freshen northwest breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

Rain chances increase across the area later today and tonight as a
low pressure system passes to the south of the area. Some snow,
sleet, and freezing rain will also be possible across the area
through Wednesday morning. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

There are currently no flooding concerns through the forecast
period. The most impactful weather will be later today into tonight
when wintry precipitation moves through. Liquid equivalent values of
the wintry precipitation are generally expected to be less than 1"
for most of the area outside of the SE Florida Big Bend, which could
see up to 1.5" of liquid equivalent precipitation.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   22  38  22  44 / 100   0  10   0
Panama City   23  39  23  45 / 100   0  10   0
Dothan        15  36  17  43 /  70   0  10   0
Albany        17  37  17  43 /  80   0  10   0
Valdosta      23  38  23  42 / 100   0  10   0
Cross City    28  42  28  48 / 100  10  10  10
Apalachicola  25  41  26  46 / 100   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ007>011-108.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST
     /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-
     127.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Wednesday for
     FLZ012>019-026>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ019-028-029-034-118-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ120>126-
     142>144-155.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     GAZ120>128-142>146-155>158.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ127>131-
     145>148-156>161.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     GAZ129>131-147-148-159>161.

AL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ065>069.

     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese