525
FXUS62 KTAE 130526
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- The daily cycle of morning coastal thunderstorms and afternoon
  inland storms will continue areawide through Sunday, when the
  focus shifts to the Florida Counties. Stronger storms will be
  capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

- Moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day through
  Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching the 98-106
  degree range each afternoon. There is a low to medium chance
  of dangerous heat index values exceeding 107 degrees on Sunday,
  Monday, and Tuesday, mainly over the Florida counties.

- Patchy morning fog is expected over inland areas again Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Nudged PoPs up around Gadsden/Leon/Wakulla over the next hour or
so to account for the storms that recently popped up. They`re not
expected to persist beyond 90 mins. Otherwise, no other updates
appear necessary this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

While not as robust as yesterday, additional shortwave energy aloft
today is aiding scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms,
with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Tonight, the low-level moist
air mass and a tendency for skies to clear is expected to result in
patchy fog Sunday morning over the inland areas.

Shower and storm coverage will increase again early Sunday morning
closer to the coast (albeit less coverage compared to previous
days), then move inland into the FL Counties by the afternoon, with
activity more seabreeze driven. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms possible again on Monday and Tuesday, mainly south of I-10.
Stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

Anomalous ridge aloft will maximize early next week. The combination
of highs in the mid-90s and dew points in the mid-70s yields a low
to medium chance of dangerous heat index values exceeding 107 deg on
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, mainly over the Florida counties.
Otherwise, moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day, with
heat index values generally reaching the 98-106 degree range each
afternoon.

Wednesday is looking to be the driest day of the week, with dew
points falling into the 60s away from the Gulf Coast. Despite highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, the drier air will begin to alleviate
heat concerns. Increased easterly flow will gradually moisten the
air mass, with a higher chance of showers and storms by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail for now, but cigs are expected to drop to
IFR/LIFR at all inland terminals in the next 2 to 4 hours as low
stratus develops. Some patchy fog is possible with IFR/MVFR vsbys
possible. Meanwhile, SHRA and maybe TSRA will begin developing
near ECP in a couple hours lasting through about mid morning. A
PROB30 is in place to account for any morning TSRA. All sites will
be VFR after 14z. SHRA/TSRA this afternoon will mainly be confined
to ECP, TLH, and VLD where PROB30s remain. Rain chances at ABY and
DHN are too low to include any mention of TS this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

With high pressure progged just to the west of the waters on Sunday
and Monday, winds tend to become West-Northwest, except onshore
in the seabreeze zone during the afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected to be centered again on Sunday
morning with briefly higher winds and seas possible. Waterspouts
cannot be ruled out. A notable decrease in the coverage of showers
and storms early next week. Strong high pressure nosing down the
Eastern Seaboard will favor moderate easterly breezes Tuesday,
which will become fresh Tuesday Night into Wednesday. There is a
low to medium chance of meeting or exceeding advisory level winds
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
much of the region on Saturday, with the greatest coverage shifting
to the FL districts on Sunday, before a notable decrease forecast on
Monday. Storms will come with sudden gusty winds, frequent lightning
and brief torrential downpours. Southerly transport winds Saturday
become Westerly on Sunday. On Saturday, the light nature of the
transport winds combined with modest mixing heights will lead to
pockets of poor dispersion across the Florida districts that will
persist through the afternoon. The heat index will be in the 98-107
degree range through early next week. Dangerous heat indices above
107 degrees are possible Sunday into early next week mainly across
the FL districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The focus for scattered showers and storms will shift to the Florida
Counties on Sunday. Much of the upcoming week will feature more
isolated storm coverage generally south of I-10 and the Florida Big
Bend. While the combination of locally heavy rainfall and slow
moving storms may lead to minor urban and poor drainage flooding,
widespread flooding and river flooding is not expected through the
period. Lgt/vrb winds will continue for the rest of the night,
followed by light westerly winds during the morning and afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  95  75 /  30  10  10   0
Panama City   90  77  93  77 /  30  10  10   0
Dothan        93  73  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
Albany        93  73  95  74 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      93  74  94  74 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    92  75  94  74 /  30  10  30   0
Apalachicola  88  77  90  77 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF