Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240121
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
921 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.UPDATE...

A few showers remain across southeast Alabama this evening and
will diminish in the next few hours, although some showers will be
possible again by sunrise before more widespread showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Cut back on PoPs for much of the
night given radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [722 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop this
afternoon across the region. While most of this activity should
diminish this evening, convection may linger overnight across our
western zones as a shortwave trough and surface cold front approach.
Otherwise, expect another round of low clouds and fog in the predawn
hours, especially across south central Georgia. Lows will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Saturday, the cold front will slow
down and is forecast to remain west of our area. However, the
shortwave trough is forecast to transit from west to east across our
CWA. Deep layer moisture will accompany this feature and combined
with daytime heating, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated. Highs will be around 80 to the lower
80s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

The weak shortwave that brought showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Saturday will continue to slide east overnight Saturday.
Showers and storms could continue into the evening hours, though
coverage will steadily decrease as the shortwave de-amplifies and
the forcing along the cold front at the surface quickly
disappears. For Sunday into Sunday night, an upper level ridge is
forecast to build across the region with easterly flow returning.
After a cooler Saturday due to showers/storms, expect temperatures
to warm back into the mid 80s with drier conditions moving in.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Plenty of uncertainty is creeping into the forecast for the long
term period next week. Much of this uncertainty revolves around an
area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean, and an upper
level trough that will develop across the central US and then move
eastwards as a cut off upper level low. At this time, the primary
agreement in the guidance is for this area of disturbed weather
to lift north towards the Yucatan Peninsula at the start of the
week. As an upper level ridge develops across the Gulf this
feature will likely slow down and move westerly across the
southern Gulf through the middle of the week. Differences begin to
emerge by Wednesday as the aforementioned upper level trough
moves into the central US and the upper level ridge over the Gulf
moves eastward. Some guidance lifts this area of disturbed weather
north much further east (GFS) while other guidance is much
further west with this northward progression (Euro) thanks to a
stronger upper level ridge. Regardless of the eventual path of
this disturbance, moisture and rain chances will be on the
increase through the middle of the week and towards weeks end.
Please continue to monitor the latest from the National Hurricane
Center for additional tropical weather outlooks/updates.

As the upper level trough continues east by the end of the week,
expect a cold front to push through the region brining the
potential for cooler temperatures by next weekend.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

While conditions are VFR this evening, expect IFR to MVFR cigs by
sunrise. These lower clouds should improve by mid to late morning.
There are a few thunderstorms left on radar this evening, with the
main area to watch around DHN. Expect a more active day in terms
of TSRA coverage tomorrow and have mentioned TSRA for the
afternoon at each site.


.MARINE...
Easterly flow will continue into the weekend, but a slight shift
to northerly winds is possible over the weekend before easterly
flow returns for much of next week. Winds and seas will generally
run around 10 knots and 2 to 3 feet through the early part of
next week. We are monitoring a potential tropical disturbance that
could move into the Gulf during the middle part of next week.
Regardless of the development of this feature, it`s likely
increases in winds and seas will move in for the middle to end
next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from low daytime dispersions the next few days, there are no
other fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Forecast rain amounts through next week appear inconsequential at
this time. Late next week a frontal system may bring the
potential for heavy rain, though it should be rather progressive
with the bulk of the rain falling west of the Tri-State region.
River flooding is not anticipated through the next 7 to 10 days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  81  67  85  67 /  20  40  20   0   0
Panama City   71  80  68  84  68 /  40  50  20   0   0
Dothan        67  79  65  82  64 /  30  60  30   0   0
Albany        68  80  66  83  64 /  20  50  30  10   0
Valdosta      68  83  66  85  66 /  10  40  20  10   0
Cross City    69  83  67  86  67 /  20  30  10   0   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  83  69 /  30  40  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan/Dobbs


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