Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 200026
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
826 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.UPDATE...

The current forecast remains on track and no changes are planned
for this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [758 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered convection is expected this afternoon across
portions of the area before diminishing this evening. The best
chance of seeing convection is expected to be along the sea breeze
across the Florida big bend as well as across portions of south-
central Georgia. Only isolated convection is expected across
portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle for the
remainder of the afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in
the lower to middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will gradually break down through the period as
a shortwave moves through the Central Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. On Wednesday, the seabreeze will be the
trigger for afternoon storms, and with northerly flow, expect most
of the storms to remain in north Florida, or extreme south
Georgia. On Thursday, coverage is forecast to be higher as the
seabreeze will combine with storms moving into the region from
the west as they drift off the approaching front. highs in the low
to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s are expected.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The aforementioned shortwave will pivot through the Ohio Valley
through the start of the weekend, with ridging building back in
late in the weekend through early next week. Expect above normal
PoPs through Friday, returning to normal for the remainder of the
period. Highs and lows will remain quite similar to the short term
period.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions with light winds away from convection through the
TAF cycle. Went with VCTS at VLD and TLH Wednesday afternoon.


.MARINE...

Generally light winds and low seas will prevail over the next
several days. Enhancements to 15 knots or so are possible each
afternoon near the coast. Showers and storms will be most likely
in the evening/overnight hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through much of
the remainder of the week. Chances for wetting rains will become
more widespread during the afternoon hours later this week.


.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime pattern is anticipated with around an inch
or so of rainfall through the weekend with isolated higher
amounts. No widespread flooding or river flooding is expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  75  93  73 /  20  50  20  40  20
Panama City   78  90  79  87  78 /  10  20  20  20  10
Dothan        74  95  75  92  73 /  10  20  20  50  20
Albany        74  96  76  94  74 /  20  30  20  40  30
Valdosta      73  93  73  93  72 /  30  50  20  40  30
Cross City    74  91  76  88  75 /  20  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  90  78  88  77 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs



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