Area Forecast Discussion
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209
FXUS62 KTAE 192332
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
632 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

High clouds will move out of the region this evening. Tomorrow
northerly winds will be moderate and may gust up to 15 knots at
times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [249 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Cold front has about completely passed through the forecast area
as of 2pm ET. A few light showers on ongoing behind the cold
front, but even these are quickly clearing the southeast Big Bend
as they move east. Cold air advection behind the front will
continue overnight along with slowly clearing mid and upper level
clouds. Expect much colder conditions tonight with widespread
temperatures around freezing across the Panhandle and SE Big Bend
with colder temperatures in the upper 20s in our Alabama and
Georgia counties.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

Widespread freezes are expected on Monday night and Tuesday night
as cold high pressure builds southward. Although the center of
the high will remain north of the area, the airmass appears to
cold enough to support lows in the upper 20s across a large area
with lower 30s along the coast. Since winds will fail to go calm,
wind chills each night will fall into the low to mid 20s. The
afternoons won`t provide much relief from the cold as highs will
struggle to reach 50 each day, and may stay in the 40s across
portions of SE AL and SW GA on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

A warming trend will prevail through the end of the week ahead of
the next cold front. Rain chances will increase towards the end of
the week or the first half of the weekend with some uncertainty in
timing. Instability currently looks marginal for thunderstorm
chances, but 60 degree dewpoints could return inland to the
Florida panhandle and big bend, so the forecast included a slight
chance of thunderstorms in those areas.


.MARINE...

Advisory conditions are expected to persist through at least
Monday afternoon. After that, periodic advisory conditions are
possible through the week with at least cautionary conditions
prevailing.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier and cooler airmass will work itself into the region today.
Min RH values will be in the mid to upper 30s each afternoon.
Dispersion values will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across SE
AL and eastern portions of the FL Panhandle. Red flag criteria is
not expected in the next two days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Dry weather is expected to prevail behind the cold front until the
end of the week. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is forecast
to fall below flood stage early in the week.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   32  50  29  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   35  51  32  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        30  46  27  47  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        30  47  28  47  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      32  50  29  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    35  54  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  36  51  33  49  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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