Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301953
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
353 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...Strong gusty winds in advance of severe weather potential on
Tuesday...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Severe weather potential will increase late Tuesday morning and
remain into the evening. Out ahead of this activity, winds will
increase, with non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 40 mph. Even
winds just below this threshold could compromise any temporary
outdoor structures, such as tents. The primary severe weather
threats are damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail. Cannot
rule out a tornado as well.

.SHORT AND LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...

Northwesterly flow returns on Wednesday as ridging develops to the
west and moves in. The cold front that will bring the weather
Tuesday will be well off to the east and skies should quickly clear
behind it. Surface high pressure and the deepening ridge will keep
the area dry at least through Friday. A few showers may sneak
across in an embedded wave Friday night but chances were too low for
the forecast. A messy surface low will be moving northeast out of TX
on Sunday with shortwaves riding along a ridge anchored over the
Gulf. WPC is showing a cold front moving southeast at the same time
but that`s hard to see in the model guidance. Either way, guidance
is showing isolated to scattered pops Sat night-Monday with quite a
bit of timing uncertainties.

Behind the cold front, highs on Wednesday will be quite pleasant- in
the lower 70s! We haven`t felt those highs since the first week of
March. Lows Thu night will be in the lower 50s. Temps then start a
warming trend back to the lower 80s on Friday to the mid 80s on
Monday. Lows will warm through the weekend as well, topping out in
the mid 60s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions today will deteriorate late tonight to MVFR/IFR for
terminals south of I-10. Southwest winds will increase on Tue with
gusts around 25 knots. TSRA will move across the terminals during
the late morning into evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is posted Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, tranquil boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds tonight will give way to strong winds on Tuesday as a
front approaches the area. Strong southwesterly surface winds will
be around 20 to 25 MPH sustained with gusts 35 to 40 MPH in some
locations. Transport winds will be that high as well. Mixing heights
will be around 4000ft and combined with the high winds, will lead to
high dispersions Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will diminish slightly
on Wednesday and be out of the north. Minimum RH values will be high
on Tuesday with rainfall most of the day but drop into the 30 %
range behind the front on Wed. Patchy fog is possible tonight in the
Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts of up to one inch over the next week, mainly due
to the system on Tuesday. No flooding issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  84  53  74  49 /  10  80  40   0   0
Panama City   70  80  54  74  54 /  10  80  10   0   0
Dothan        63  79  50  70  47 /  10  90  10   0   0
Albany        62  79  52  70  47 /  10  90  20   0   0
Valdosta      63  82  54  71  48 /   0  70  50   0   0
Cross City    65  82  57  75  49 /   0  40  30   0   0
Apalachicola  69  80  55  72  56 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for Miller-Seminole.

AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for Geneva-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...LF


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