Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 202129
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures across northern and central New Mexico will generally
remain slightly below average into Thursday, struggling to rise
toward average by the late weekend. A Pacific low pressure system
will gradually move inland and toward the Land of Enchantment tonight
into Thursday, eventually crossing over northern parts of the state
Friday and Friday night. Rain and high elevation snow showers will
accompany this feature with scattered thunderstorms also tagging
along. Precipitation will initially favor western New Mexico tonight,
before spreading eastward into Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
will wane Friday night with drier conditions expected Saturday.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop Saturday, turning a
bit stronger on Sunday as high temperatures approach closer to seasonal
readings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Amplified flow aloft will lend itself to a Pacific low being drawn
inland tonight with the inital core of the low crossing southern CA
before it tracks north of I-40 and into northern NM by Friday. In the
wake of yesterday`s backdoor cold front, a synoptic southeasterly
low layer flow has been established over NM, keeping relatively
healthy dewpoints intact with top-down moistening expected to
continue overnight as the flow turns more diffluent with the
approaching low. Look for showers and thunderstorms to keep feeding
into western zones overnight with fairly high snow levels.

Into Thursday the center of the low will be rounding southern NV,
keeping a moistened mid to upper level flow feeding into NM. Surface
winds will veer a bit more southerly Thursday afternoon with
precipitation really favoring central to northwestern zones of NM
where lower lifted indices and steeper temperature lapse rates will
be coincident, leading to thunderstorms. Snow levels will rise to
8,000 to 9,000 feet by Thursday afternoon, and while a couple to a
few inches of accumulation can be expected in these higher elevation
areas, the time frame of more impact from accumulations will likely
be delayed until Thursday night and Friday.

Subsequent shifts will be monitoring the need for a winter weather
advisory for the northern mountains during this Thursday night to
Friday time frame, but at this time snow amounts appear to be below
warning criteria. The low will actually be splitting through this
time, with the southern-most low crossing northern parts of the
forecast area. The 500 mb temperatures will be dropping to about -24
C in the heart of its cold pool aloft. These colder temperatures
aloft will only enhance the instability with additional thunderstorms
possible, especially Friday afternoon as precipitation re-focuses
over north central to eastern NM. While large scale forcing will be
present, it may not be quite vigorous enough to produce a widespread
threat of strong to severe storms. Shear profiles would be
sufficient to produce some supercellular storm characteristics, but
instability and forcing may not be optimally aligned. Precipitation
will diminish into Friday night as the low lifts northeast of NM and
drier air sweeps in from the west.

Subtle temperature rises on both Saturday and Sunday will carry
daytime highs closer to seasonal averages with breezy to windy
conditions beginning to take shape due to a strong gradient aloft,
more-so on Sunday. Any lee-side cyclogenesis does not appear overly
strong, so this should keep winds from surging too high. There would
likely be a quick-moving short wave passing near or north of the NM-
CO border on Sunday, but forecast models are not unanimous on the
timing or strength of this. Regardless of the exact timing, a cold
front would likely spill into eastern NM, setting temperatures back
for Monday. An upper level ridge axis would then cross Monday night
into Tuesday with temperatures projected to exceed normal during the
middle of next week across the entire forecast area.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather concerns as of this forecast package as
rounds of wetting precipitation over the next few days will limit
any fire concerns. However, drier air this weekend as well as
stronger winds on Sunday may create some marginal critical fire
concerns in the eastern plains.

An approaching Pacific low pressure system crossing the central
Rockies will steer rounds of rain, thunderstorms, and mountain snow
across the area through Friday. Southerly to southeasterly flow
ahead of the system will continue to usher in moister air across the
area through Thursday, and minimum humidity values will generally
range from 30 to 60 percent tomorrow. Precipitation will begin to
develop along and west of the Continental Divide this evening and
will be widespread across much of the area tomorrow. Snow levels
will start out high at around 8500 to 9000 ft. Most locations can
expect wetting precipitation through Friday with a few to several
inches of snow possible in the northern mountains as snow levels
will fall to around 6500 to 6000 ft Friday morning in northern and
northwest NM.

The precipitation will shift off to the east on Friday where a few
thunderstorms will still be possible along the NM/TX border during
the afternoon. A quieter Saturday is expected as a ridge of high
pressure crosses. Increasing westerly flow behind the exiting storm
system will usher in drier air, and minimum humidity values will
fall across the area this weekend. An upper level trough will pass
to the north on Sunday, generating stronger winds areawide with
windy conditions along and east of the central mountain chain.
However, humidity values are still expected to remain just above 15
percent. In the wake of the upper trough, a backdoor cold front will
introduce cooler temperatures and higher humidities to the eastern
plains.

Poor ventilation rates today will trend upward ranging from good to
excellent across most of the area tomorrow and should remain so
through the weekend. Ventilation rates may trend back down beginning
Monday as wind flow aloft and mixing decrease.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Due to persistent east and southeast winds, areas of IFR and MVFR
conditions in low clouds are likely to continue along the east slopes
of the central mountain chain until mid afternoon. Models indicate
they will probably return tonight, but may not be as widespread due
to increasing high clouds and decreased radiational cooling. Showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northern and
western mountains today, then a wave of rain showers, thunderstorms
and mountain snow showers are forecast to track from southwest to
northeast across the forecast area tonight and Thursday. MVFR and IFR
conditions will accompany the precipitation, as well as mountain
obscurations.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  57  34  53 /  50  70  50  20
Dulce...........................  31  53  32  47 /  20  70  70  50
Cuba............................  36  51  32  49 /  20  70  70  40
Gallup..........................  41  55  28  51 /  70  60  20  10
El Morro........................  37  54  26  49 /  70  60  20  10
Grants..........................  38  55  28  53 /  60  60  30  10
Quemado.........................  39  57  27  52 /  50  30  10   5
Glenwood........................  42  64  34  57 /  70  20   5   0
Chama...........................  25  48  28  42 /  20  70  80  60
Los Alamos......................  36  50  38  52 /  20  70  60  50
Pecos...........................  32  46  33  48 /  10  70  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  28  48  31  48 /  10  50  60  50
Red River.......................  21  39  26  38 /  20  60  70  60
Angel Fire......................  17  41  31  40 /  10  50  70  60
Taos............................  28  52  35  51 /  10  40  50  50
Mora............................  28  45  34  50 /  10  60  70  60
Espanola........................  35  56  38  56 /  10  50  50  50
Santa Fe........................  36  50  35  52 /  10  70  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  34  54  34  55 /  10  60  60  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  58  40  58 /  30  70  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  59  43  59 /  30  60  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  38  60  39  61 /  30  60  50  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  59  41  59 /  30  60  50  20
Los Lunas.......................  38  61  40  63 /  40  50  50  10
Rio Rancho......................  41  59  40  58 /  30  60  50  20
Socorro.........................  42  63  41  63 /  50  50  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  51  37  52 /  30  70  50  30
Tijeras.........................  35  55  36  55 /  30  70  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  30  55  35  55 /  20  60  50  20
Clines Corners..................  32  49  36  53 /  20  70  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  36  57  38  57 /  30  60  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  38  61  41  59 /  30  40  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  29  54  37  52 /  30  50  40  10
Capulin.........................  25  53  35  55 /   5  20  40  50
Raton...........................  27  55  36  58 /   5  20  50  50
Springer........................  29  54  38  60 /   5  20  50  60
Las Vegas.......................  27  46  34  52 /  10  50  60  50
Clayton.........................  29  61  38  59 /   0   5  30  70
Roy.............................  30  52  38  56 /   0  20  50  60
Conchas.........................  34  58  43  63 /   0  20  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  33  56  43  62 /   5  40  50  40
Tucumcari.......................  32  62  43  65 /   0  10  40  50
Clovis..........................  35  60  40  62 /   0  10  30  50
Portales........................  34  62  42  64 /   0  10  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  35  58  45  64 /   5  30  40  40
Roswell.........................  40  61  45  70 /  10  40  50  20
Picacho.........................  38  52  42  65 /  20  50  50  10
Elk.............................  35  51  39  60 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

52


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.