164
FXUS65 KABQ 180002 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

- Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire
  weather today through Monday, leading to an increased risk of
  rapid fire spread. Winds will be strongest tomorrow and Monday
  when gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common, particularly for
  areas along the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands.

- Scattered rain and high mountain snow showers will develop over
  northwestern to northern New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a
  few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening
  hours.

- Temperatures will begin climbing early next week, with highs
  reaching the upper 80s and mid 90s for Friday and Saturday
  across the state.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

Broken cloud coverage and scattered virga showers associated with
what`s left of a weak shortwave crossing NM is being replaced by a
clearer dry slot pushing into southwestern and south-central NM this
afternoon. Clearing skies and increased southwesterly winds
generally gusting 20 to 35 mph will be present through the rest of
the afternoon most areas, with the exception of eastern NM where
clouds hold on the longest. Winds diminish this evening, staying
elevated over the high terrain as the next main upper level storm
system digs down into the Desert Southwest. Strong westerly to
southwesterly winds will begin impacting higher elevations Sunday
morning. Numerical model guidance shows H7 winds first reaching 40-
50kts over the Sacramento Mts. These winds spread out over lower
elevations through Sunday morning, amplified through northeastern NM
thanks to a deepening lee surface low over southeastern CO falling
to 986-990mb MSLP. Have nudged forecast winds above the base NBM due
to these considerations reaching wind advisory criteria. A Wind
Advisory will be hoisted along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to
Raton, and over the Sacramento Mts Sunday afternoon where common
gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be present. Winds diminish by Sunday
evening, staying elevated the longest over the high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

As Monday rolls around, the trough axis will be swinging through New
Mexico and ushering in a secondary upper level jet max during the
morning and early afternoon. The 115 kt 300 mb jet streak looks to
be pushing through a little bit further south and earlier than
previous model runs depicted. A streak of 45 to 50 kt 700 mb winds
will stretch across central and southern New Mexico, with diurnal
heating looking to mix down these stronger winds aloft during the
afternoon. A 995-999 mb surface low over northeastern New Mexico may
serve to accelerate winds over northeastern areas, but the strongest
winds will generally be along and south of the I-40 corridor, with
the highest gusts of 35 to 45 kts for the central highlands.
However, one limiting factor for winds on Monday will be the timing
of the jet max aloft. Guidance indicates that the strongest winds
aloft will be passing through during the late morning and early
afternoon, prior to peak diurnal heating. By late afternoon, the
trough axis will be digging into southeastern New Mexico, keeping
the strongest winds to our south. Therefore, central areas may
not be able to mix down enough during the early afternoon for
winds to reach advisory criteria, but it should still be breezy
enough to create elevated to critical fire conditions for central
and south-central areas. Other than winds, this system will bring
in some light precipitation and a few rumbles of thunder for
western and northern areas, generally amounting to a few
hundredths to a tenth of QPF for the high terrain.

Pressure heights will begin to rise over the course of the next
week, culminating in H5 heights of 588-590 dm on Friday and
Saturday. Southeastern areas along the Pecos River valley, including
Roswell, have about a 60% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Friday
and Saturday afternoon according to NBM ensemble members. The RGV
will have about a 50 to 60% chance of reaching 95 degrees during
that same time. Throughout the week, conditions look to remain dry
and winds will be light to breezy throughout the state. Some
southeast flow towards the end of the period will increase low level
moisture, but chances for precipitation look to remain low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

Southwest winds taper off for most around sunset expect at around
06Z near the AZ border, including KGUP, ahead of an approaching
Pacific front. The Pacific front moves into western NM around
sunrise Sunday moving though the state during the rest of the
morning into the afternoon. Southwest to west winds quickly ramp
up along and behind the front with wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts
across western and central NM and wind gusts of 35 to 45 kts
across eastern NM with the higher end of these wind gusts observed
across the south central mountains and the northeast highlands
and plains. Some showers with lower VFR ceilings across far
northwest NM and the west slopes of the Tusas Mountains mid
morning through the early evening as the trough axis moves
overhead. Finally, possible blowing dust from southwest winds
cloud bring some visibility reductions to KROW during the mid to
late afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

Virga showers are moving quickly out of the area over eastern NM
this afternoon, replaced by increasing dry southwesterly flow
producing critical fire weather through the southwestern and south-
central portions of NM. Winds diminish this evening, returning
quickly again Sunday morning. A second round of critical fire
weather conditions focused over the southern half of the state will
result from the strong southwesterly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph and
low humidity. Critical fire weather conditions get pushed south and
east Monday as one more storm system tracks over northern NM
bringing cooler and wetter weather to that portion of the state.

Fire weather comes to an end late Monday behind a cold front that
brings colder temperatures and higher humidity. This front is
reinforced through eastern NM Tuesday, replaced by drier weather
through the majority of next week. Winds will be the limiting factor
for fire weather redeveloping. Temperatures climb well above normal
most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  66  39  62 /   5  40  20  30
Dulce...........................  39  61  29  58 /   5  40  20  40
Cuba............................  42  65  34  57 /   0  10  10  30
Gallup..........................  37  66  32  60 /   0  10  20  30
El Morro........................  37  63  35  58 /   0   5  10  30
Grants..........................  36  68  33  61 /   0   0   5  20
Quemado.........................  38  68  38  63 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  45  72  43  67 /   0   0   0  20
Datil...........................  39  68  39  63 /   0   0   0  20
Reserve.........................  37  74  34  70 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  40  77  38  74 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  35  56  27  52 /   0  30  10  50
Los Alamos......................  47  66  41  58 /   0   5   5  30
Pecos...........................  44  67  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  41  63  35  55 /   0  10   5  30
Red River.......................  35  53  30  47 /   0  10  10  40
Angel Fire......................  32  60  30  52 /   0  10  10  30
Taos............................  36  66  32  59 /   0   5   5  20
Mora............................  39  65  38  57 /   0   5   5  30
Espanola........................  44  74  40  64 /   0   5   0  20
Santa Fe........................  47  68  41  59 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  45  71  40  63 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  76  50  66 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  77  46  69 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  80  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  77  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  44  81  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  50  78  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  44  80  43  72 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  50  79  46  69 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  45  80  45  72 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  51  73  46  65 /   0   0   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  50  77  46  68 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  48  85  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  70  42  60 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  47  72  43  63 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  42  73  40  63 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  74  38  65 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  41  69  39  61 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  43  74  40  65 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  42  74  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  52  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  49  69  46  66 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  42  70  39  61 /   0   0   0  20
Raton...........................  40  74  38  65 /   0   0   0  20
Springer........................  40  74  40  66 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  43  70  40  62 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  49  81  47  72 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  46  74  43  67 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  50  84  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  80  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  85  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  85  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  52  87  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  85  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  91  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  82  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  50  79  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-124.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ106-109-
124-125.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ226>229-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...71