283
FXUS65 KABQ 091740 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

- Dry lightning and erratic gusty winds from isolated to
  scattered afternoon thunderstorms northern NM today along the
  central mountain chain Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Gusty north winds across eastern New Mexico Sunday morning and
  east canyon winds across central New Mexico Sunday evening will
  result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations
  Tuesday from well above normal temperatures in the 90s across
  lower elevation areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Day 1 Saturday: It is May so that means virga "bomb" season in
New Mexico. Virga being rain that evaporates from a thunderstorm
before reaching the ground. The rain cooled air still does reach
the ground causing a dry microburst hence the "bomb" term. Today
looks to be a decent set up for that to occur over the northern
mountains into the northeast Highlands. Isolated activity should
develop over the central RGV and then back over the Gila Forest as
well. Instability (CAPE) looks rather limited with weak
"moisture" over the state within increasing NW flow aloft. Storms
will be moving pretty quickly as well so any convection could
produce a quick microburst with winds most likely not reaching
severe levels due to lack of CAPE and downdraft CAPE (DCAPE).

Impacts from the gusty winds will be pretty minor and limited to
the typical blowing dust and displaced trampoline or bouncy house.

Day 2 Sunday: The downburst potential increases more on Sunday
with a much more supportive upper level pattern. A fast moving
short wave trough passes through northern NM on Sunday increasing
the NW flow aloft and cooling aloft. Lapse rates steepen quite a
bit more by early afternoon and supportive of CAPE around 400-800
J/kg and DCAPE around 600 J/kg. Deep layer shear increases to
30-40 kts especially from the Highlands south towards SE NM and in
phase with the instability. HREF hints at a least small chance
(<10%) of CAPE reaching 1000 J/kg in a few spots in E NM. Should
the models be under forecasting CAPE then maybe there is support
for a marginal severe weather risk for damaging winds. More than
likely storms produce wind gusts closer to 50 mph than 60 mph. The
main impacts from these kinds of winds will again be blowing dust
but could damage weak structures and toss trampolines.

Hi-res CAMs and synoptic models all have a pretty clear signal for
convection developing in the Las Vegas (not Nevada) area of the
Highlands in the early afternoon and then work off to the SE.
Isolated activity then develops down the mountain chains towards
the Sacramento Mountains. It looks like storms will be in the
vicinity of Ruidoso but likely moving too fast and with not a lot
of rain to cause any issues on the burn scars.

The wildcard in all of this is the back door surface cold front
that surges down the eastern Plains bring a surge of moisture to
the region. Models need to have a good handle on it`s evolution
and magnitude of moisture. The boundary layer moisture will be key
to the whole convective scenario and where the forecast goes
sideways for the intensity of storms. Will dewpoints in the 40s be
the key to this all? Lastly we will throw in the mention of east
canyon winds for the ABQ metro area late Sunday due to the back
door front but just not a lot of confidence on the intensity of
winds with it.

39

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Day 3 Monday: The upper level ridge strikes back. Star Wars
reference intended. Yes that synoptic feature that reared its ugly
head back at the end of March comes back to life like Darth Maul.
Synoptic ensemble model suites are all in pretty good agreement
with an anomalously high (+12 DAM) 500 mb ridge building over
AZ/NM on Monday. As such temperatures rebound quite a bit in E NM
with temperatures back into the mid/upper 80s after 70s on Sunday.

Day 4-7: Tuesday the ridge builds over NM with 590 DAM heights at
500mb or again about +12 DAM above normal. It will be quite
possible that kind of 500mb height would be close to a record on
the 18Z ABQ sounding. And that would make sense given this height
would be right around the 99th percentile of climo. Heat risk
builds into the moderate category for much of NM as high temps
reach the 90s which will be only about 2 weeks ahead of schedule
instead of 2 months (at least for ABQ metro). Roswell will
probably be in reach of 100F.

Wednesday through the end of the week the upper level ridge moves
over Texas and southwest flow aloft develops over NM. A weak
shortwave passes by on Thursday which could bring some elevated
convection to the area. Again not much moisture with this system
so virga will be the most likely outcome from any convection.
After that ensemble model suites become quite divergent in their
solutions. Cluster analysis shows exactly that...a cluster. GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all favor different outcomes from
each other. All this means is that there is very low confidence in
the forecast day 7 and beyond.

39/Discussion courtesy the WCM working night ops. Take it for what
it is worth.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Increasing coverage of mid and high level clouds as a disturbance
slides southeast towards northern NM. Some isolated high based
showers across north central and northeast NM near the CO border
this afternoon and early evening could result in erratic wind
gusts of 35 to 45 kts. This includes KSKX, KAXX, KRTN, and KCAO.
Elsewhere, breezy northwest winds from KFMN to KSAF to KCQC this
afternoon with peak gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Mid and upper level
clouds clear out overnight across northwest, and west central NM
early Sunday morning and across central NM sunrise Sunday. A
backdoor front enters northeast NM this evening and overnight
surging through the rest of the eastern plains during the hours
around sunrise Sunday. Strong north winds along and behind the
front with gusts of 30 to 40 kts. Brief gusts of up to 45 kts
along the leading edge of the front. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings
across far northeast NM between KRTN to the TX border mid and
late Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

In general, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast
over the next 7 days. There are days in which fire weather
conditions will be elevated. Elevated conditions are expected for
much of the region today due to min relative humidity under 15
percent but winds will not reach critical thresholds leading to
the RH component of RFTI in the 3-4 range. Sunday elevated
conditions exist in both eastern and western NM but for different
reasons...winds in E NM and min RH in W and C NM.

For Sunday...thunderstorm activity with gusty downburst winds
will be an issue for E NM and the Highlands down to the Sacramento
Mtns. Lightning could ignite new fire starts depending upon how
much rain falls with these storms.

Heat builds on Monday into Tuesday supporting min RH below 10
percent for much of the region on Tuesday. High temperatures are
expected to be 10-17 degrees above normal by Tuesday. This will
support widespread elevated to near critical conditions due to the
low RH but winds should remain below critical thresholds. Similar
conditions should persist through the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  34  78  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  79  45  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  82  43  80  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  48  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  82  48  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  49  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  55  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  78  52  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  86  47  86  42 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  90  49  90  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  35  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  77  54  74  48 /   0   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  79  47  69  39 /   0   0  40   0
Cerro/Questa....................  73  42  69  40 /  10  10  10   0
Red River.......................  64  37  58  34 /  20  20  20   0
Angel Fire......................  71  34  63  28 /   5  10  40   0
Taos............................  78  39  73  34 /   5   5   5   0
Mora............................  77  45  64  38 /   0   0  50   0
Espanola........................  84  50  80  45 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  79  51  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  82  49  77  42 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  59  82  51 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  56  83  48 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  55  86  48 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  57  84  50 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  90  55  85  46 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  89  55  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  89  54  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  89  56  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  89  55  85  46 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  83  58  79  50 /   0   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  88  56  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  92  61  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  54  75  46 /   0   0  10   0
Tijeras.........................  81  54  77  46 /   0   0  10   0
Edgewood........................  83  51  75  41 /   0   0  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  48  75  36 /   0   0  20   0
Clines Corners..................  79  48  67  39 /   0   0  50   0
Mountainair.....................  83  51  74  41 /   0   0  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  82  52  74  43 /   0   0  30   0
Carrizozo.......................  85  59  78  50 /   0   5  30   0
Ruidoso.........................  79  56  68  47 /   0   0  40   5
Capulin.........................  75  42  59  36 /  10  10  20   0
Raton...........................  80  45  65  37 /  10  10  20   0
Springer........................  82  46  68  38 /  10  10  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  49  64  40 /   0   0  70   0
Clayton.........................  84  49  63  42 /   5  10  10   0
Roy.............................  82  48  66  41 /   5   5  10   0
Conchas.........................  91  55  72  44 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  53  71  42 /   0   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  56  71  43 /   0   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  93  55  70  45 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  94  55  72  44 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  57  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  60  81  51 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  89  57  74  48 /   0   0  20   5
Elk.............................  88  55  72  46 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...71