055
FXUS65 KABQ 121117 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Patchy fog and low clouds over eastern NM this morning will give way
to clearing skies and warmer temperatures today. Showers and storms
will redevelop over the higher terrain of northern NM this afternoon
then move southeast into nearby valleys through sunset. These storms
will not be as strong as Saturday but small hail is still possible.
Monday and Tuesday will feature a couple more showers and storms
around the higher terrain with warmer temperatures. The coverage
of showers and storms is expected to increase again over a larger
part of NM Wednesday and Thursday followed by a return to dry,
warm, and breezy conditions toward the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

The closed upper low that brought all of the thunderstorm activity
to much of central and eastern NM on Saturday is currently over the
northern San Luis Basin of CO early this morning. This low is
forecast to continue drifting eastward today and along with daytime
heating, generating mainly garden variety type scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northeastern third of the state this
afternoon. An isolated strong storm or two is possible over the far
northeast, but effective bulk shear is lacking as surface winds go
southwesterly, and severe storms are forecast to remain east of NM
as a result. Dry north to northwesterly flow aloft moves in over the
forecast area tonight as high pressure aloft builds overhead. Enough
low to mid level moisture remains in place for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon, mainly mountains. Shower
and storm motion will be to the south-southeast around 15 mph. High
temperatures will trend warmer across eastern NM today and areawide
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

A downtick in storm coverage is still advertised Tuesday as a weak
shortwave ridge crests over NM. Much warmer temps with some remnant
moisture around the region will allow a few orographic showers to
develop across northern NM. This activity will move east/northeast
into northeast NM thru late day.

A much more active pattern is also expected to return Wednesday and
Thursday as a pair of weak upper level shortwaves attempt to gather
over northern NM. Low level return flow deepening along the Front
Range Wednesday interacts with the upper waves and allows several
clusters of storms to develop over the region. A reinforcing shot of
low level moisture arrives as a convectively-aided backdoor cold
front over eastern NM Wednesday night and Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF
solution has finally come around closer to the past several runs of
the GFS which favors northeast NM for an additional round of QPF in
excess of 1" during this period. Temps cool below normal again for
much of northern and eastern NM.

Extended model guidance continues to advertise a return to drier,
breezy, and much warmer temps toward the end of the week. 00Z MOS
numbers are showing the warmest temps so far this season with highs
potentially closing in on 90F for ABQ by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Areas of low clouds along with patchy fog will continue produce
MVFR and local IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain
through this morning before dissipating. The low clouds will
continue to retreat from the west, ending on the far eastern
plains by late morning. This afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the northern mountains during the
late morning, spreading east and southward over northeast NM
during the afternoon and early evening. A few showers will linger
into tonight over the northern mountains, otherwise VFR conditions
return areawide this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Surface dewpoint temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 30s
west with upper 30s to low 40s in the Rio Grande Valley and mainly
upper 40 to low 50s east through this week. That means daily rounds
of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains each
afternoon through Tuesday. By Wednesday, an upper low over Northern
Baja is forecast to help increase shower and thunderstorm coverage
mainly along and north of I-40. Shower and storm coverage continues
to ramp up Thursday as the low moves through NM and combines with a
backdoor cold front to result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air begins to move in on northwest flow aloft
Friday, but models suggest enough residual mid level moisture could
result in at least isolated storms over the southwest and south
central mountains. High temperatures will trend warmer early in the
work week, cooling to below average areawide Thursday. A strong
warming trend is forecast to begin Friday, continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  74  43  79  43 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  66  30  73  33 /  40  10  30   5
Cuba............................  64  37  73  40 /  30  10  10   5
Gallup..........................  71  33  77  36 /   5   0  10   0
El Morro........................  66  37  72  41 /  20   0  20   5
Grants..........................  70  35  76  37 /  10   0  10   5
Quemado.........................  67  39  74  41 /   5   5  10   5
Magdalena.......................  69  44  74  48 /  10  10  10  10
Datil...........................  66  41  71  44 /   5   5  10  10
Reserve.........................  75  36  79  38 /   5   0  10   0
Glenwood........................  79  50  84  50 /   5   5   5   0
Chama...........................  58  31  66  33 /  60  20  40  10
Los Alamos......................  60  43  69  47 /  40  20  30   5
Pecos...........................  61  41  70  42 /  30  10  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  55  39  64  41 /  50  10  30  10
Red River.......................  52  30  61  33 /  60  20  40  10
Angel Fire......................  53  26  62  29 /  60  10  40  10
Taos............................  61  32  71  35 /  40  10  20   5
Mora............................  60  36  67  37 /  40  10  40   5
Espanola........................  67  40  77  43 /  40  20  20   5
Santa Fe........................  62  43  72  46 /  30  10  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  66  41  75  44 /  20  10  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  49  79  53 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  50  80  51 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  47  82  48 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  48  81  50 /  10  10   5   5
Belen...........................  76  43  83  46 /  10   5   5   5
Bernalillo......................  72  46  81  49 /  10  20  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  74  43  82  45 /  10   5   5   5
Corrales........................  74  48  82  49 /  10  10   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  74  44  82  46 /  10   5   5   5
Placitas........................  68  46  76  50 /  10  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  73  47  80  50 /  10  10   5   5
Socorro.........................  81  48  85  51 /  10  10   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  45  71  48 /  10  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  66  42  74  45 /  10  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  66  39  74  41 /  10  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  36  75  37 /  10   5  10   5
Clines Corners..................  63  39  70  41 /  10   5  10   5
Mountainair.....................  68  41  74  44 /   5   5  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  69  41  74  44 /   5   5   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  75  47  79  51 /   0   5  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  68  44  72  47 /   0   5  20   5
Capulin.........................  60  40  65  40 /  70  20  20   0
Raton...........................  64  39  71  39 /  70  10  20   5
Springer........................  65  38  72  39 /  50  20  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  64  38  69  41 /  30  10  30   5
Clayton.........................  69  47  73  46 /  50  40  10   0
Roy.............................  67  43  72  44 /  40  10  20   0
Conchas.........................  74  46  78  47 /  20  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  70  43  75  45 /  10   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  76  47  78  47 /  10   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  79  49  80  51 /  30   5   0   0
Portales........................  82  48  83  49 /  30   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  78  45  80  47 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  86  54  86  56 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  78  47  80  49 /   0   0  10   0
Elk.............................  77  44  78  47 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33