Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 300819
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
219 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another windy day is in store for much of the Land of Enchantment.
Outdoor burning is not recommended today as low humidity values
across the east central plains combined with the strong winds will
create critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, a few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the north. Dry, warmer and
less wind will be the rules for Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions
will return Wednesday and Thursday, before a back door cold front
drops into the plains Thursday night cooling temperatures for Friday.
Precipitation chances after today remain meager through the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
An upper level short wave trough will cross the NM/CO border today
while a surface cold front sweeps across the state, bringing rain
and mountain snow showers to northern areas. There will be a few
thunderstorms near the CO border this afternoon. It will be breezy
to windy most areas, with strong winds across the east central
highlands and plains. We have issued a wind advisory for those areas
this afternoon and early evening.

Tonight will be dry and cool to chilly with diminishing wind.

A fine Tuesday will be gracing NM with lots of sunshine, not much
wind and temperatures warming into the 60s to mid 70s in all but the
mountains. There will be some high clouds arriving into the
afternoon in southwest areas.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A weak sub-tropical wave is still expected to cross NM Tuesday night
thruogh Wednesday. Abundant mid and high clouds are expected with
this system, but little in the way of precipitation. The GFS is
showing speckles of QPF mainly south of I-40, but it is the outlier.
Otherwise, a deepening surface low to 993 mb across eastern CO will
make for a breezy to windy day yet again. Strong downsloping should
warm temperatures across the plains over Tuesday`s readings, despite
the cloud cover.

Another surface low across SE CO combined with potentially stronger
mid level flow on Thursday will yield another breezy to windy day
before a cold front plows into the plains Thursday night. Some low
level clouds are expected behind the front, along with cooler
temperatures. It continues to look like the front will only make it
to the central mountain chain before getting held up by the opposing
westerly flow. Thus, the biggest temperatures differences for Friday
will be across the east, where temps may be 10 to 20 degrees colder
than on Thursday. Precipitation chances look to be low with the
frontal passage, but perhaps a few sprinkles or snowflakes may fall
along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Some differences exists beyond Friday regarding the timing and
strength of the upstream system, but for now, the weekend looks
fairly quiet outside of some breezy southwest winds, and perhaps a
stray shower or thunderstorm across the southeast.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level short wave trough will cross the NM/CO border today
while a surface cold front sweeps across the state, bringing rain
and mountain snow showers to northern areas. There will be a few
thunderstorms near the CO border this afternoon. It will be breezy
to windy most areas, with strong winds across the east central
highlands and plains. We will continue the Red Flag Warning for the
East Central Plains as all guidance is pointing to this area today.

It will dry out and clear out tonight with diminishing wind and
chilly temperatures. Tuesday will be a fine day with sunshine, less
wind and mild temperatures.

A weak trough will cross NM Wednesday bringing some clouds but
probably no precipitation. The winds will increase again though with
critical fire weather concerns across the east both Wednesday and
Thursday. The next short wave trough will approach Thursday and
arrive Friday with a little precipitation across the north. A potent
back door cold front is still advertised to arrive in the east late
Thursday and race south Thursday night. Not as confident on the
front making through the mountain gaps and passes late Thursday
night. Friday will be much cooler in the east. The weekend should be
dry and warmer with no strong winds. We will need to watch the far
east plains over the weekend for possible dry line action.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will pass eastward along the CO/NM border
today with rain and mountain snow showers, and a few afternoon
thunderstorms near the CO border. Occasional mountain obscurations
are expected there. A nocturnal, low level jet will stream northward
over the far eastern NM counties overnight producing low level wind
shear at KTCC. A gusty Pacific cold front will cross from the west
late tonight through Monday shifting winds out of the northwest. The
northwest winds will become strong this afternoon, especially east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains where gusts may reach near and over
40 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  30  66  35 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  24  62  29 /  30   0   0   0
Cuba............................  55  30  64  36 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  58  23  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  25  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  57  26  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  56  26  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  54  28  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  68  38  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  50  20  55  27 /  30   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  31  62  42 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  56  32  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  56  23  61  32 /  30   0   0   0
Red River.......................  46  22  51  30 /  40   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  47  20  56  27 /  30   0   0   0
Taos............................  56  25  62  30 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  56  28  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  63  31  69  39 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  57  33  63  39 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  30  66  37 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  38  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  38  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  65  34  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  35  71  43 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  65  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  64  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  65  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  61  38  68  43 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  37  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  68  37  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  35  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  59  30  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  29  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  57  30  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  60  32  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  34  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  64  38  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  59  27  66  37 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  62  26  71  34 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  63  25  71  35 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  60  28  67  38 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  66  34  70  43 /  20  10   0   0
Roy.............................  65  30  68  40 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  73  34  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  35  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  74  37  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  72  37  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  74  37  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  38  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  38  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  65  36  71  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ108.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ223-233>237.

&&

$$


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