Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151725 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

VFR conditions as a backdoor front pushing south through eastern NM
is bringing a N/NE wind shift to area terminals. This wind shift will
reach KROW in the first hour of the TAF period. Winds gradually calm
behind the front as it will continue through the gaps of the central
mtn chain tonight. Only a modest gap wind is currently forecast with
gusts staying below AWW levels at KABQ.



.PREV DISCUSSION...1022 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019...
Sent out a quick and minor forecast update to slightly lower
temperatures in southeastern NM, but it is almost a negligible
change. Cold front continues to spill southward into the plains, and
latest thinking is that places such as Roswell, may fall short of
projected highs by a couple degrees. Winds are quite strong
immediately along and behind the frontal boundary, gusting as high
as 42 mph at CAO, but are already observing a slow decreasing trend.
Obs at Cannon AFB are also at wind advisory, but this should decrease
into the early afternoon hours and no wind advisory statement
issuance is planned.



.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019...
Mostly dry conditions will prevail today except possibly in southern
Socorro, Lincoln, and Chaves counties where a weak disturbance could
generate a few light showers this afternoon. Meanwhile, a backdoor
cold front will move through northeastern New Mexico this afternoon
which will cool temperatures to slightly below normal values as well
as create breezy conditions. As the aforementioned weak disturbance
pushes out of New Mexico Wednesday, dry, warm conditions will prevail
through Thursday. Breezy conditions will be felt again across the
east on Thursday and Friday. Another storm system crossing the
central Rockies Friday will send a cold front across the state,
cooling temperatures across western New Mexico Friday.


The weak trough is still centered west of NM, currently over central
AZ. Southwesterly flow ahead of this feature allowed for moisture to
be drawn northward into southern NM, but very little of it was able
to make it into the ABQ CWA. A few light showers were observed
yesterday across southern Socorro, Lincoln, and Chaves counties, and
the same will be possible again today as that trough slowly crosses
the state. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system moving across the
northern US will be sending a backdoor cold front through the eastern
plains early this afternoon. There will be no precipitation
associated with the front, but cooler temperatures and breezy winds
will be felt across northeast and east central NM as that front
pushes south and west through the area. The front will make its way
into the ABQ area likely around 03-04Z, causing a wind shift but any
gap wind should remain light with speeds less than 20 knots.

A ridge builds upstream of the trough on Wednesday, pushing it and
the little moisture there was into west TX. Temperatures warm for
most on Wednesday except in the southeast where the effects of the
backdoor front will linger. Another upper-level trough will begin to
cross the central Rockies on Thursday, and ahead of this, a lee-side
surface trough will form which will strengthen winds across northeast
and east central NM. Breezy to windy conditions will continue across
the east on Friday as the trough crosses CO. Little precipitation is
expected from the system as it clips northern NM as the bulk of the
moisture will remain too far north. However, cooler temperatures can
be expected across western NM as the trough will send a Pacific cold
front across the area on Friday.

Another system will cross the Intermountain West late this weekend,
but NM will likely remain dry as the system will remain too far
north. With the GFS and ECMWF both showing little precipitation
across NM, did decrease PoPs below NBM guidance for this weekend.
Won`t rule out a few light showers across northern NM at this point,
but it looks like breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures
will once again be the bigger impacts felt. Widespread critical fire
weather conditions in the east will even be a concern on Sunday with
those dry, windy conditions (see Fire Weather discussion below).



In the short term, winds will increase over the Eastern Plains and
through the ABQ Metro today as a backdoor front pushes southward
during the afternoon, dropping temperatures below seasonal normals.
While winds will increase and RH values will fall into the mid-
teens, values aren`t expected to reach critical levels under a
fairly stable atmosphere.

Local areas of critical fire weather conditions will develop over
portions of Harding and Union counties on Thursday and Friday as
another front moves through eastern NM. Winds will increase with
this front with above normal temperatures and RH values falling into
the mid-teens with increasing instability, however the area of
critical conditions will be too small for a Red Flag Warning.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected over almost
all of the Eastern Plains on Sunday. Fuel values (10 and 100 hour)
are low over the region, so forecast trends will need to be
monitored for the possibility of a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning for Sunday.





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