Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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886
FXUS65 KABQ 261747 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds will trend down through early week, while temperatures
rise above normal areawide by Tuesday. The Albuquerque Sunport is
forecast to hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on
Tuesday, which is within a day of the climatological average.
Moisture will move into the eastern plains from the east on
Tuesday and will fuel a few strong to severe storms going into
early Tuesday evening. Outflow from those storms will likely
create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday
night. Chances for storms will continue across much of northeast
NM and the eastern plains from Tuesday through the end of the work
week, while western NM remains hot and dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

A mellower weather pattern will take shape today as the flow aloft
continues to weaken in the wake of an upper level trough that
crossed on Saturday. Gusty conditions are forecast to linger from
northwest to east central areas today, except for windy conditions
with gusts up to 45 mph around Clines Corners this morning. Will
extend the Air Quality Advisor through this morning for Bonito Lake,
Alto, Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, and Hollywood, where northwest flow is
forecast by the HRRR and Blue Sky Models to carry smoke from the
Blue 2 Fire. The day shift will consider extending the Air Quality
Advisory through the afternoon and evening, and also consider
expanding it eastward down Highway 70 to the Roswell and Hagerman
area. Meanwhile, models agree less on how thick and how far smoke
from the Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak will spread this afternoon
with the HRRR being most aggressive. Given the persistently gusty
northwest flow that is forecast for today, there is a good chance
that the smoke plume will be noted aloft as far southeast as
Espanola, Las Vegas, and Tucumcari by late this afternoon and
evening. A backdoor front sagging southward through the eastern
plains may then spread some of this smoke southward over the Fort
Sumner, Clovis, and Portales area during the late night hours.

High temperatures this afternoon should vary from a few to around 7
degrees below 1991-2020 averages over central and western areas, and
as much as 5 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains.  A
ridge of high pressure will then build over the forecast area on
Monday allowing high temperatures to climb a few to around 7
degrees over today`s readings. In addition, winds will continue to
weaken while shifting out of the southwest most places. Smoke
plumes should be less vigorously developed on Monday, but they may
extend eastward during the afternoon and evening enough to impact
Espanola, Taos, Mora, and the Route 70 corridor from Ruidoso
through Chaves County, as well as southern Roosevelt County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Chances for virga and strong/erratic wind gusts will continue into
Monday evening across far northeast NM near the CO border before
the loss of daytime heating. An upper level ridge will continue to
pump up over the region Tuesday bringing even warmer temperatures,
with the Albuquerque Sunport forecast to hit 90 degrees for the
first time this year. This first 90 degree day for Albuquerque
would be one day later than the climatological mean. A weak
backdoor front aided by convective outflow will push west into
the eastern plains Monday evening to near the central mountain
chain by Tuesday morning, bringing sufficient low level moisture
to fuel a round of late day storms across the eastern plains with
the best chances closer to the OK and TX borders. The NAM is
advertising impressive instability and shear Tuesday afternoon, so
don`t be surprised to see a storm or two become severe and
produce large hail and/or damaging winds. Convective outflow will
result in a gusty east canyon wind into the RGV Tuesday night,
bringing low level moisture west to near the Continental Divide.
However, the moisture layer will be very shallow and is forecast
to mix-out Wednesday with a dryline sharpening up east of the
central mountain chain, where another round of strong to severe
storms is possible. An upper level trough moving east from the
Pacific NW to the northern/central Rockies will steer slightly
stronger winds aloft across the southern Rockies and northern NM
Thu/Fri, providing increased shear and the continued potential for
strong to severe storms given sufficient low level moisture
sloshing back to the west each night followed by a resharpening of
the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Northwest winds will peak early today in the wake of a departing
upper trough. Gusts between 25 and 35 kt will focus mainly along
the central mt chain and nearby highlands around KCQC. Any smoke
impacts will depend on fire behavior today. Model smoke forecasts
indicate the greatest potential for reduced cigs/vsbys from near
KSRR to KROW, especially overnight as smoke settles into valleys.
Otherwise, VFR is likely the next 24 hrs with decreasing winds
and sunny skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

West and northwest winds will be significantly weaker today, but it
will still be very dry.  Winds should weaken enough by afternoon to
cancel the Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for the Central
Highlands. Locally critical fire weather conditions are still
expected for several hours around Clines Corners, and only for an
hour or two further east around Santa Rosa. The weather pattern will
shift during the first half of the coming week as a couple
backdoor fronts and some southeasterly return flow bring higher
humidities mainly to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast and
far east central areas. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in these areas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons and
evenings, but wetting footprints will be small along the western
edge of the moisture with a risk of new fire starts from dry
thunderstorms producing dry microbursts in the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. With an upper level trough passing north of New Mexico,
some of this moisture will probably scour eastward in afternoon
mixing Friday and Saturday only to slosh back westward across
northeast and far east central areas during the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  34  80  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  72  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  77  39  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  72  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  40  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  42  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  75  45  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  39  86  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  36  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  73  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  74  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  43  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  65  36  70  38 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  67  32  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  75  37  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  72  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  81  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  85  48  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  48  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  49  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  78  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  51  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  77  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  41  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  74  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  77  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  74  43  76  46 /   0   0   5   5
Raton...........................  79  43  80  46 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  80  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  50  83  53 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  80  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  88  52  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  50  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  90  55  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  91  53  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  88  52  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  59  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  85  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42