


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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164 FXUS65 KABQ 180002 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather today through Monday, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. Winds will be strongest tomorrow and Monday when gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common, particularly for areas along the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands. - Scattered rain and high mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to northern New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening hours. - Temperatures will begin climbing early next week, with highs reaching the upper 80s and mid 90s for Friday and Saturday across the state. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Broken cloud coverage and scattered virga showers associated with what`s left of a weak shortwave crossing NM is being replaced by a clearer dry slot pushing into southwestern and south-central NM this afternoon. Clearing skies and increased southwesterly winds generally gusting 20 to 35 mph will be present through the rest of the afternoon most areas, with the exception of eastern NM where clouds hold on the longest. Winds diminish this evening, staying elevated over the high terrain as the next main upper level storm system digs down into the Desert Southwest. Strong westerly to southwesterly winds will begin impacting higher elevations Sunday morning. Numerical model guidance shows H7 winds first reaching 40- 50kts over the Sacramento Mts. These winds spread out over lower elevations through Sunday morning, amplified through northeastern NM thanks to a deepening lee surface low over southeastern CO falling to 986-990mb MSLP. Have nudged forecast winds above the base NBM due to these considerations reaching wind advisory criteria. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Raton, and over the Sacramento Mts Sunday afternoon where common gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be present. Winds diminish by Sunday evening, staying elevated the longest over the high terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 As Monday rolls around, the trough axis will be swinging through New Mexico and ushering in a secondary upper level jet max during the morning and early afternoon. The 115 kt 300 mb jet streak looks to be pushing through a little bit further south and earlier than previous model runs depicted. A streak of 45 to 50 kt 700 mb winds will stretch across central and southern New Mexico, with diurnal heating looking to mix down these stronger winds aloft during the afternoon. A 995-999 mb surface low over northeastern New Mexico may serve to accelerate winds over northeastern areas, but the strongest winds will generally be along and south of the I-40 corridor, with the highest gusts of 35 to 45 kts for the central highlands. However, one limiting factor for winds on Monday will be the timing of the jet max aloft. Guidance indicates that the strongest winds aloft will be passing through during the late morning and early afternoon, prior to peak diurnal heating. By late afternoon, the trough axis will be digging into southeastern New Mexico, keeping the strongest winds to our south. Therefore, central areas may not be able to mix down enough during the early afternoon for winds to reach advisory criteria, but it should still be breezy enough to create elevated to critical fire conditions for central and south-central areas. Other than winds, this system will bring in some light precipitation and a few rumbles of thunder for western and northern areas, generally amounting to a few hundredths to a tenth of QPF for the high terrain. Pressure heights will begin to rise over the course of the next week, culminating in H5 heights of 588-590 dm on Friday and Saturday. Southeastern areas along the Pecos River valley, including Roswell, have about a 60% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday afternoon according to NBM ensemble members. The RGV will have about a 50 to 60% chance of reaching 95 degrees during that same time. Throughout the week, conditions look to remain dry and winds will be light to breezy throughout the state. Some southeast flow towards the end of the period will increase low level moisture, but chances for precipitation look to remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Southwest winds taper off for most around sunset expect at around 06Z near the AZ border, including KGUP, ahead of an approaching Pacific front. The Pacific front moves into western NM around sunrise Sunday moving though the state during the rest of the morning into the afternoon. Southwest to west winds quickly ramp up along and behind the front with wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts across western and central NM and wind gusts of 35 to 45 kts across eastern NM with the higher end of these wind gusts observed across the south central mountains and the northeast highlands and plains. Some showers with lower VFR ceilings across far northwest NM and the west slopes of the Tusas Mountains mid morning through the early evening as the trough axis moves overhead. Finally, possible blowing dust from southwest winds cloud bring some visibility reductions to KROW during the mid to late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Virga showers are moving quickly out of the area over eastern NM this afternoon, replaced by increasing dry southwesterly flow producing critical fire weather through the southwestern and south- central portions of NM. Winds diminish this evening, returning quickly again Sunday morning. A second round of critical fire weather conditions focused over the southern half of the state will result from the strong southwesterly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph and low humidity. Critical fire weather conditions get pushed south and east Monday as one more storm system tracks over northern NM bringing cooler and wetter weather to that portion of the state. Fire weather comes to an end late Monday behind a cold front that brings colder temperatures and higher humidity. This front is reinforced through eastern NM Tuesday, replaced by drier weather through the majority of next week. Winds will be the limiting factor for fire weather redeveloping. Temperatures climb well above normal most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 66 39 62 / 5 40 20 30 Dulce........................... 39 61 29 58 / 5 40 20 40 Cuba............................ 42 65 34 57 / 0 10 10 30 Gallup.......................... 37 66 32 60 / 0 10 20 30 El Morro........................ 37 63 35 58 / 0 5 10 30 Grants.......................... 36 68 33 61 / 0 0 5 20 Quemado......................... 38 68 38 63 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 45 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 20 Datil........................... 39 68 39 63 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 37 74 34 70 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 40 77 38 74 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 35 56 27 52 / 0 30 10 50 Los Alamos...................... 47 66 41 58 / 0 5 5 30 Pecos........................... 44 67 40 58 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 63 35 55 / 0 10 5 30 Red River....................... 35 53 30 47 / 0 10 10 40 Angel Fire...................... 32 60 30 52 / 0 10 10 30 Taos............................ 36 66 32 59 / 0 5 5 20 Mora............................ 39 65 38 57 / 0 5 5 30 Espanola........................ 44 74 40 64 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 47 68 41 59 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 71 40 63 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 76 50 66 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 77 46 69 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 77 47 68 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 44 81 45 73 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 50 78 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 44 80 43 72 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 50 79 46 69 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 45 80 45 72 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 51 73 46 65 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 50 77 46 68 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 48 85 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 70 42 60 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 47 72 43 63 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 42 73 40 63 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 74 38 65 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 41 69 39 61 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 43 74 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 42 74 40 67 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 52 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 49 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 42 70 39 61 / 0 0 0 20 Raton........................... 40 74 38 65 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 40 74 40 66 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 43 70 40 62 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 49 81 47 72 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 46 74 43 67 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 50 84 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 80 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 85 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 85 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 52 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 85 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 91 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 51 82 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 79 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-124. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ106-109- 124-125. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ226>229-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...71