Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 081730 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1030 AM MST Mon Mar 8 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Breezy to windy southwesterlies beginning to translate to the surface
in association with a passing upper level disturbance over NM.
Abundant mid to upper level moisture will continue to see bkn-ovc
skies shift west to east across the state. A few spots could see some
sprinkles over central NM into the afternoon. Much of this will be
virga in nature and could help produce a few isolated and somewhat
erratic stronger gusts of 25-40kts. Winds are expected to decouple
and taper off overnight. However, with stronger winds remaining
just off ground level, have included a mention of LLWS at KGUP-KLVS-
KTCC for the overnight period. Stronger southwest winds are expected
Tuesday again returning near the end of the TAF period.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...224 AM MST Mon Mar 8 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will move across the region today, bringing
increased cloud cover and a few showers to the western and northern
mountains, followed by another one on Tuesday. A warming trend will
continue into Tuesday, with well above normal temperatures forecast.
Winds will trend up through mid week, with very windy conditions
forecast by late Wednesday. Strong winds will redevelop Thursday
ahead of an approaching Pacific storm system, forecast to move
slowly across the region Friday though Saturday. The Pacific system
will bring cooler temperatures and good chances for precipitation to
the area, especially across northeast New Mexico where a backdoor
cold front will enhance chances. Significant snowfall is likely
across the northern mountain, northeast highlands and the Raton Pass
area Friday night through Saturday night. The Pacific system will
depart Sunday, leaving below to well below normal temperatures in
it`s wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The ridge of high pressure that brought yesterday`s beautiful
weather has now moved off to the east, and today will mark a pattern
change that will continue through the end of the work week. Water
vapor imagery this morning shows a strong upper-level low off the
coast of British Columbia. Upper-level flow ahead of this feature
has turned southwesterly across the western US, and this
southwesterly flow has allowed for an area of mid to high clouds to
stream in across the state. This trend will continue through the
afternoon with mid to high clouds streaming from west to east
leading to a party to mostly cloudy day across the area. Despite
this, the warming trend will continue across the area with high
temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, a lee-
side surface low over southeastern CO combined with strengthening
700mb winds of 35 to 40 knots will result in increasing afternoon
winds across the northeast. While close, winds are expected to
remain below advisory levels. Finally for today, an embedded
shortwave tracking over northern NM will bring chances of light
showers to the northern mountains. Hi-res models such as the HREF
depict very light showers developing over the Tusas and Jemez mtns
by late morning with additional light showers over the Sangre de
Cristos by early this afternoon. Won`t rule out sprinkles or
flurries for lower elevations near the Continental Divide, but with
drier air near the surface, more than that is not expected.

That shortwave exits by early this evening, and any shower activity
should taper off as well by then. Southwest flow remains in place
Tuesday, but strengthens with 700mb winds at about 40 to 50 knots.
This results in surface winds further increasing areawide with the
strongest winds expected across the east. Guidance is suggesting
wind advisory speeds will be possible across northeast and east
central NM, but one thing that could work against that would be the
continued cloud cover that may limit mixing. Another embedded
shortwave brings more light showers to the western and northern high
terrain Tuesday morning, but like the one before it, little impact
is expected.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Winds aloft will strengthen over the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday as a dry air intrusion replaces Pacific moisture and PWATs
plummet. Wednesday will likely be the windiest day of the week, with
widespread windy to very windy conditions forecast given deep layer
mixing and a Wind Advisory will likely be required. Areas of blowing
dust will redevelop Wednesday across much of eastern New Mexico and
may even impact the RGV. Thursday is looking like another windy day,
especially across the southeast half of our area where the dry air
intrusion will remain and more deep layer mixing is forecast. More
blowing dust is possible Thursday afternoon across the southeast
plains.

The upper low will approach from over Arizona on Friday and is
forecast to fill to around 546dam at 500mb by that time, which is
still plenty impressive for early/mid March. Precipitation chance
will ramp up late Friday across far western NM and across northeast
NM, where a backdoor cold front will provide added forcing. The cold
front will progress across our area Friday night and precipitation
chances will ramp up further as the upper low moves into western NM.
Good agreement among the 00Z GFS and ECMWF has the upper low lifting
northeast across the northern mountains Saturday and interacting with
the backdoor cold front, producing rather significant QPF from the
Sangre De Cristos across the adjacent highlands to between Raton Pass
and Capulin. Snow may wrap-around the departing upper low Saturday
night into Sunday morning and continue to pound northeast portions of
the state. Still far out in the extended portion of the forecast,
but this spring system as the potential to produce significant
winter-like impacts across north central and northeast NM. Below
normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be left in
the wake of the departing upper low on Sunday.

15/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE EAST THURSDAY...

Strengthening winds and decreasing humidity will result in daily
rounds of critical fire weather conditions each afternoon this work
week. Winds will start to trend up this afternoon across the
northeast, but minRHs are largely expected to remain above 15
percent. A couple hours of locally critical fire weather conditions
may be possible this afternoon, particularly across the far
northeast corner of the state, but will forgo any highlights for
today. Winds continue to trend up on Tuesday as minRHs fall. Will
continue the Fire Weather Watch across the northeast, but will add
zone 108 where conditions will support critical fire weather during
the afternoon. Wednesday will likely be the most widespread critical
fire weather day of the week as winds continue to trend up and
humidities continue to fall. Several hours of single digit
humidities will also be possible Wednesday afternoon across much of
the east. Temperatures cool enough on Thursday across the west to
help limit critical conditions, but not in the east where yet
another round of strong winds and dry conditions will keep the
critical fire weather conditions in the forecast. The aforementioned
storm system finally arrives Friday and into the weekend with
increasing precipitation chances and cooling temperatures areawide
limiting fire weather concerns this weekend.

15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$


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