Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 282108 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
308 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...CORRECTED PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS TABLE...

.SYNOPSIS...
The winter storm that brought record-breaking snow and temperatures
will gradually shift east of New Mexico this evening. Winter weather
impacts will diminish overnight, but lingering slick roads as well as
freezing fog will persist through Thursday morning. A quieter weather
day is in store for Thursday and Friday with slightly warmer readings
each day. A backdoor front will invade the eastern plains on Saturday,
bringing cooler readings to this region once again. A very weak storm
system over the Desert Southwest will track across the state for the
midweek period. Precipitation chances look very minimal, and would be
focused in western New Mexico on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)...
The record-breaking winter storm system that brought blizzard
conditions to parts of eastern NM is progged to eject east into the
Great Plains by midnight tonight. A mix of wintery precipitation
wrapped around the storm`s center will continue to impact the far
eastern plains, with conditions expected to improve after midnight.
Overall, precip type forecast was challenging through the evening
due to temperature profiles and timing. Ultimately, due to expected
subfreezing temperatures and forcing aloft, kept snow in the
forecast through the evening with a transition to mix by midnight.
The greater confidence on additional snow accumulations will be
within Quay County, where 1" to 3" is possible. Given recent trends
and changeover to rain/snow, have opted to replace all warnings with
advisories.

With the passing of the tight pressure gradient aloft, winds are
expected to amplify at the surface across eastern NM, with breezy
to locally windy conditions likely. Elsewhere across central and
western NM, winds are expected to remain calm with clearing skies.
Due to increased boundary layer moisture, freezing fog is expected
Thursday morning in the Rio Grande, San Juan, and Chaco valleys. 12

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
Much quieter weather is expected across the Land of Enchantment as
the pesky, but precipitation beneficial, storm system accelerates to
the east. Low amplitude ridge will roll over NM on Thursday, and the
region will experience modest warming. One primary challenge will be
snow cover that will limit boundary layer heating. It`s unclear how
much freezing fog, if any, will develop Thurs night. Opted to leave
out of forecast due to lower confidence, but prime suspect areas may
be the far upper Rio Grande and Moreno Valleys. For Friday, a quasi-
zonal to southwest flow will develop across the region, allowing for
additional slow warming.

For the upcoming weekend, deterministic and ensemble guidance depict
an upper low developing near the vicinity of the CA coast or northern
Baja CA. This will be a notably weaker disturbance as compared to the
most recent storm. Some limited moisture will creep toward the Desert
Southwest, and this will increase cloud cover in the CWA, especially
across the southern and western zones. Meanwhile, a dry backdoor cold
front will sweep through the eastern plains on Saturday, which should
push high temperatures back 10-15 degrees below normal.

Upr high over the region this weekend will slide eastward for early
next week, allowing the aforementioned low to migrate into the area.
The GFS deterministic guidance appears to be the most aggressive with
QPF across western NM on Tuesday/Tuesday night due to higher moisture
profiles. NBM guidance keeps PoPs below mentionable levels, but opted
to increase values over the higher terrain to include isolated shower
mention. At this point, snow levels would be sufficiently high enough
to limit potential winter-related hazards if precipitation does occur.
For those looking for model entertainment, it appears tropical juice
could be advected into the Desert Southwest late next week. Given the
crazy trends so far this season, it wouldn`t be a surprise... DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winter weather and associated precipitation will exit NM tonight,
with lingering snowfall across the eastern plains expected to end
around midnight. Breezy to locally windy northerly winds will fill
into the northeastern plains tonight. A warming trend along with dry
conditions is expected through the remainder of the week and into
the weekend. No fire weather concerns. 12

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Blizzard conditions were reported across parts of northeast NM this
morning with significant impacts from SN and low vsby. Model trends
show some improvement this afternoon from west to east with change to
RA/SN and clearing after sunset along the central mt chain tonight.
A third round of RA/SN is expected along the TX border from near
KCAO south to KTCC this evening. Areas of FZFG may develop within
central and western NM overnight however confidence is low at this
time. Thursday looks to be much quieter as this system moves well to
the east. Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  55  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  21  55  17  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  22  49  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  21  54  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  18  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  17  51  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  22  59  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  25  51  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  23  50  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  24  62  20  70 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  22  52  20  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  28  49  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  25  48  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  23  51  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  44  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  13  47   9  52 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  20  47  17  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  48  22  59 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  26  52  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  48  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  22  49  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  30  51  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  27  51  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  52  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  27  50  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  24  52  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  25  51  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  24  52  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  26  51  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  25  52  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  28  49  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  26  51  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  27  53  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  47  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  26  49  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  23  48  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  17  47  14  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  43  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  22  49  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  52  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  28  57  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  51  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  27  46  25  54 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  26  49  22  59 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  25  48  19  56 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  45  24  59 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  30  43  28  52 /  60   0   0   0
Roy.............................  29  42  23  53 /  30   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  42  25  55 /  40   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  28  43  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  29  42  30  56 /  70   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  31  44  29  59 /  50   0   0   0
Portales........................  31  46  27  60 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  47  27  54 /  30   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  32  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  31  53  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  30  54  29  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for the
following zones... NMZ227>237.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ212>215-221>226-238-239.

&&

$$

12/46


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