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000
FXUS65 KABQ 050533 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Showers and storms have ended over burn scars areas this evening.
A few light showers may pop up around the central high terrain
overnight with very limited impacts. Farther east, yet another
cluster of storms with heavy rainfall is moving south across the
Caprock with some areas picking up 1 to 2". This will set the
stage for potential flash flooding Monday as more storms move
across the region through Monday night. A Flash Flood Watch was
already issued for burn scar areas where confidence is high on
heavy rainfall rates sufficient to produce flash flooding. The
watch may need expansion to eastern NM where WPC shows a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

There is an increased risk of daily rounds of slow moving
thunderstorms producing flash flooding on recent burn scars and
areas that have seen recent heavy rains today through Tuesday.
Scattered to widespread afternoon storms will begin over the high
terrain of western and central NM before drifting over surrounding
lower elevations late day and evening. Drier weather begins to
push into southwestern and west-central NM Wednesday, spreading to
northern and eastern NM Thursday and Friday. The drying trend
looks to continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms have already erupted across the forecast
area, seemingly aiming for all the recent wildfire burn scars. The
good news, no significant impacts have been reported at this time.
Based on the latest guidance, MLCAPE values of 750-1500J/kg should
be focused over east-central NM, but with lower bulk shear, most of
the activity should be pulse/clusters. Meanwhile, across western NM
where moisture is more limited in nature, inverted-V soundings and
DCAPE values exceeding 1000J/kg will support gusty microburst winds.
Atmosphere should stabilize pretty quickly across wrn NM by sunset,
but convection could favor the ern plains thru the overnight as a
weak upper level disturbance and deformation zone remains anchored
over this region. Similar to this morning, low clouds could develop
across the ern plains. Meanwhile, canyon winds should develop this
evening within the Rio Grande Valley, and this will be critical as
it will force increased boundary layer moisture westward toward the
Cont. Divide and play a significant role in convective potential on
Monday in this region.

Upper level disturbance over the eastern plains will become more
diffuse in nature. Meanwhile, PWAT values in central NM are progged
to increase - pushing the 90th percentile for early June. With the
upper level ridge located over western and central NM, expect storm
motions to be rather slow with a general west-east trajectory. This
combination will necessitate another Flood Watch on Monday for the
primary burn scars (HPCC/McBride/Cerro Pelado) and will let the eve
shift issue when current headline expires. There could be a rather
tight gradient along the Cont. Divide where a mix of wet/dry storms
will be possible, supporting a risk for gusty flows. High temps are
likely to be below to well below normal given increased moisture as
well as cloud cover that will inhibit incoming solar, especially in
northeast/east central NM. DPorter

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Tuesday begins the long term period with the most widespread
coverage of afternoon storms across the state. Global model
solutions have backtracked a tad with the arrival of dry
southwesterly winds into southwestern NM, but overall the forecast
message has not changed much for Tuesday. Storms will initiate
over the higher terrain of western and central NM. With an upper
level ridge of high pressure centered nearly directly over the
state, storm motions will range from slow and erratic over western
NM and the Rio Grande Valley to drifting eastward off the east
slopes of the central mountain chain. The combination of slow
storm motions and PWATs reaching 0.70” to 0.80” (90th percentile)
will produce an increased risk of flash flooding, especially over
recent burn scars and areas that have seen recent heavy rains.
Storms will generally cluster over central NM to the eastern
plains Tuesday night before steadily tapering off into early
Wednesday morning. Outflow from these storms look to also produce
an east canyon wind Tuesday night into Santa Fe and Albuquerque.

The weather pattern begins to change over NM with a 568dm H5 upper
low bringing dry southwesterly flow further into western NM by
Wednesday. Low level moisture will still be available to allow for
afternoon storms to develop along and east of the central mountain
chain and the northwestern mountains. The dry southwesterly flow
will bring a downtick in storm coverage through the Rio Grande
Valley, including the ABQ metro. While there is still a good
chance for storms to develop along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and over the Hermit’s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar, increased
steering flow will likely push storms quickly toward the north and
east. This will lower the potential for burn scar flash flooding
as storms will reside over one location for a shorter duration.
The drying trend continues Thursday and Friday with southwesterly
flow pushing dry air incrementally further into northern and
eastern NM. The drying trend looks to continue into next weekend
with another upper level low moving into CA bringing continued dry
southwesterly flow over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Weak upper ridge axis stretched from north to south over central
NM. Outflow boundary pushing into se NM at 05Z with sct tstms
along the leading edge and sct showers in it`s wake. Convection to
slowly diminish through 12Z and can`t rule out some isold MVFR to
IFR cigs/vsbys in clouds and br over far ern NM through 14Z. Low
level moisture will increase in the RGV to the Contdvd with sct
tstms redeveloping over the higher terrain and moving slowly to
the se aft 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast during
the upcoming work week. Moisture levels remain elevated for locales
along and east of the central mountain chain, but will improve over
western and central NM for Monday and Tuesday as low level moisture
is advected westward towards the Continental Divide. Afternoon and
evening showers and storms will erupt Monday afternoon, and given a
slow steering flow aloft, locally heavy rainfall/wetting precip can
be expected for central/eastern areas. Scattered to numerous storms
can be expected along the Continental Divide, and given the slightly
drier regime, this region could experience a mixture of wet and dry
cells that will also be capable of gusty/erratic winds. Will need to
closely monitor the potential for lightning ignitions given the risk
for limited wetting footprints. Rinse and repeat for Tuesday, though
the risk for drier storms across western NM may be a bit lower as an
increase in boundary layer moisture is projected.

An upper level low parked near central/southern CA will eventually
advect a drier air mass into western NM for Wednesday. In fact, the
surface dewpoints approaching 40F on Tuesday will be replaced with
lower 20F. There will likely be a fairly sharp moisture gradient at
or just east of the Continental Divide, and thus, virga and/or brief
showers and isolated storms could develop along the transition zone.
This could introduce a risk for additional lightning ignitions that
will have a very low chance to experience wetting precipitation. It
appears MinRH values will drop below 15 percent along the AZ border,
but sustained 20ft winds will be a limiting factor for critical fire
weather conditions.

The dry air mass will continue to chew up more real estate on Thur
as the aforementioned upper low weakens/pivots into the Great Basin.
The best chances for convective activity will be focused in the nrn
mts and far ern plains. Single digit MinRH will be more common over
the western zones and middle RGV, but again, winds should not reach
critical thresholds. Not a lot of change is progged in the sensible
weather for Friday through the weekend other than a slight uptick in
high temperatures. There is potential for a backdoor cold front that
could invade the northeast plains on Sunday, but forecast confidence
is rather low at this time. DPorter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  85  55  85 /   0  20  20  60
Dulce...........................  41  77  43  78 /  10  50  40  60
Cuba............................  46  77  47  76 /  10  40  30  70
Gallup..........................  44  82  46  81 /  10  20  20  50
El Morro........................  44  76  47  76 /  20  40  30  60
Grants..........................  43  79  47  80 /  10  40  40  70
Quemado.........................  45  80  48  80 /  10  30  20  40
Magdalena.......................  51  77  52  78 /  20  50  60  70
Datil...........................  46  77  48  75 /  20  50  40  60
Reserve.........................  42  84  43  84 /   0  10  20  20
Glenwood........................  52  89  54  88 /   0  10  10  20
Chama...........................  40  70  41  72 /  20  70  50  70
Los Alamos......................  51  70  51  72 /  20  70  40  70
Pecos...........................  47  68  48  71 /  40  80  60  70
Cerro/Questa....................  42  66  43  67 /  60  80  50  90
Red River.......................  37  60  38  64 /  70 100  60  90
Angel Fire......................  36  61  37  64 /  60  90  60  80
Taos............................  41  72  42  73 /  40  80  50  80
Mora............................  43  63  44  68 /  60  90  60  80
Espanola........................  50  79  51  80 /  20  50  40  60
Santa Fe........................  50  72  51  74 /  30  70  50  70
Santa Fe Airport................  48  76  49  77 /  20  50  40  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  80  58  82 /  10  40  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  82  57  83 /  10  30  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  85  56  85 /   5  30  40  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  83  57  83 /  10  30  40  50
Belen...........................  54  86  55  86 /  10  30  40  50
Bernalillo......................  55  83  56  85 /  10  30  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  52  86  53  85 /   5  30  40  50
Corrales........................  55  84  56  85 /  10  30  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  52  85  53  85 /   5  30  50  50
Placitas........................  54  79  55  80 /  10  40  50  50
Rio Rancho......................  56  82  57  84 /  10  30  40  50
Socorro.........................  56  87  57  87 /   5  30  50  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  73  50  73 /  20  60  60  60
Tijeras.........................  51  76  52  76 /  20  50  50  60
Edgewood........................  48  73  49  74 /  20  60  60  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  74  47  75 /  20  50  60  70
Clines Corners..................  46  69  47  70 /  40  60  60  60
Mountainair.....................  49  76  50  75 /  20  50  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  49  76  50  77 /  10  50  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  54  81  56  81 /  10  40  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  47  72  48  72 /  20  70  50  70
Capulin.........................  47  62  46  67 /  70  80  30  70
Raton...........................  47  68  47  72 /  60  80  40  70
Springer........................  49  69  49  72 /  60  80  50  70
Las Vegas.......................  47  66  47  69 /  60  80  50  70
Clayton.........................  53  69  52  72 /  70  50  20  30
Roy.............................  50  66  50  68 /  60  70  40  50
Conchas.........................  55  74  54  75 /  70  50  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  54  72  54  73 /  60  40  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  54  74  52  74 /  60  40  20  20
Clovis..........................  55  73  54  76 /  60  50  20  20
Portales........................  56  73  55  77 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  56  77  55  77 /  50  30  20  30
Roswell.........................  60  82  62  85 /  20  30  30  20
Picacho.........................  54  78  55  78 /  10  50  40  60
Elk.............................  49  75  51  77 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for
NMZ211-214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...99