Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201128 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
528 AM MDT Mon May 20 2019

Southwest winds will strengthen this morning by 14Z-16Z, ahead of an
unseasonably cold upper-level closed low over AZ. Peak gusts will
range from 30-40kts most areas with the highest speeds over the
Sacramento/Capitan Mountains and southeast plains as well as across
the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Meanwhile,
scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms and
mountain snow showers will begin to enter far northwest NM around
sunrise. Expect lowering cigs and mtn obscurations through western
and northern NM through the day as the associated surface cold front
moves through. Strong west winds will continue across much of NM
tonight, strengthening significantly most areas Tuesday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION...1253 AM MDT Mon May 20 2019...
An active spring weather pattern has arrived with a potent storm
system shifting east across northern New Mexico today. Severe
thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
are expected over the far eastern plains through this morning. The
focus will then shift to strong southwest winds over much of central
and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a band
of showers and storms will enter western New Mexico this afternoon
and shift east into the Rio Grande Valley by sunset. Rain will change
to snow above 7,500 feet then down to 6,500 feet overnight. Several
inches of snow are likely in the high terrain of northern New Mexico.
Strong west winds will then slam the region Tuesday afternoon with
widespread gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. Strong winds will
continue into Wednesday as the next weather system approaches from
the west. Temperatures will remain below normal for most of New
Mexico through Wednesday.


An unseasonably strong upper level low pressure system will move
east through the southern Rockies today and Tuesday and deliver an
impressive punch of impactful spring weather conditions to the
entire area. First, strong low level moisture advection into the
eastern plains this morning with strengthening instability ahead of
an approaching upper level jet will set the stage for severe storms
through late this morning. The main impact from these storms will be
large hail and heavy rainfall. The focus will then shift to strong
southwest winds as 700-500mb layer winds near 50 kt shift overhead.
High Wind Warnings are now in effect for the south central high
terrain and surrounding plains. Wind Advisories are also in effect
for the remainder of eastern NM, with potential for expansion into
the lower RGV this afternoon. Meanwhile, a potent cold front will
arrive over western NM this afternoon as a sharp band of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will plow eastward with rain changing to
snow above 7,500` through sunset. Snow levels will lower to near
6,500` overnight as the core of an impressive 545dm H5 low moves
through northern NM. A Winter Wx Advisory has been issued for the
northern high terrain where 6 to 12" is likely, particularly along
west facing slopes through Tuesday morning.

The upper level storm system will become negative tilt as a 120 kt
jet streak shifts through northern NM Tuesday afternoon. Deepening
surface low pressure and cold advection will lead to widespread
strong west winds. Gusts up to 60 mph will be common along the I-40
corridor from the central mt chain eastward to TX. The next system
will take shape over the Great Basin by Wednesday and force strong
southwest winds over the area. Extended guidance continues to show a
pattern conducive to the development of daily rounds of strong to
severe storms over eastern NM Thursday through Memorial Day weekend.



Southwest winds will increase across the forecast area this morning
as an unseasonably cold upper low moves into Arizona. Scattered to
numerous showers and mountain snow showers will move into western
and northern New Mexico today along the associated surface cold
front. Very strong to potentially damaging winds will develop across
much of the eastern half of the state this afternoon and continue
through the evening hours. High winds are looking more likely for
much of the area along and east of the central mountain chain
Tuesday. As another strong closed low moves into Arizona Wednesday,
strong to very strong winds will develop once again, possibly
continuing into Thursday. High temperatures through much of the work
week will remain below to well below average for late May,
especially for central and western NM.


Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for the
following zones... NMZ515-521>524-527>537.

High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for the
following zones... NMZ525-526-538>540.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ510>514.



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