Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 082030
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the evening across the high terrain and portions of the eastern
plains. A repeat is expected for Sunday, then storm chances will
start to dwindle for all by the eastern plains on Monday. Storm
chances will continue to trend downward through Thursday as high
temperatures trend upward. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest
days of the week as high temperatures approach up to a dozen degrees
above normal across the east, and up to 8 degrees above normal
across the west. Storm chances may start to trend back upward Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through this evening, favoring southern and eastern areas. partly
cloudy and mild conditions will be the rule after midnight.

The center of high pressure over TX will drift east this weekend,
while another center of high pressure develops over southern NM on
Sunday. This second high pressure area will be weak and not have
much impact Sunday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms similar
to Saturday. High temperatures will be the same or a little higher
Sunday along with light winds, except in or near thunderstorms.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
On Monday, the sprawling upper level high will split into two,
with the main center positioning itself over the NM/MX border. This
will allow drier air to begin to invade much of NM, regulating
showers and thunderstorms to mainly eastern NM and the south central
mountains. Aiding the convection across the plains, will be a weak
disturbance in the westerly flow over eastern CO and northeast NM
combined with a weak low level boundary nudging into northeast NM.
This boundary will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, as will be a strong moisture gradient near the NM/TX
border, in the afternoon. It`s not out of the question that a stray
strong or severe storm may develop along one of these boundaries in
the afternoon. Low level moisture should continue to migrate back
into the eastern plains overnight as the boundaries seep westward.
This will set the stage for a few more showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday across the plains. Elsewhere, dry air will continue to filter
in, driving PWATs down near or below 0.5" for much of central and
western NM.

As the upper high strengthens and perhaps inches northward ever-so-
slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances will
continue to dwindle while high temperatures climb. Heat advisories
may end up being necessary for the Chaves County Plains by this time.

By Friday and into the weekend, the GFS and CMC continue to show
moisture seeping back into NM despite the upper high remaining over
the state. The ECMWF remains steadfast in keeping the drier air
entrenched over NM at least Friday and Saturday. The good news is
even the ECMWF starts to trend PWATs back up by next Sunday. Stay
tuned.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will develop over southern NM this weekend and
strengthen next week. This will bring about a gradual drying and
warming trend well into next week. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will occur again Sunday, similar to today in terms of
the coverage. But precipitation chances with wetting foot prints
will be hard to find as the high builds directly over NM next week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for
the east Monday and northeast Tuesday, but Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and hot area wide. Record highs could be challenged
during the week. Haines Indices will become widespread 6`s.
Nighttime RH recoveries will be fair to good this weekend, but fair
to poor much of next week. Ventilation rates will be good to
excellent.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with mostly light
winds. Another round of showers and storms will impact central and
southern portions of the state this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm
impacts are possible at KROW, with strong/erratic wind gusts being
the primary threat. Showers/thunderstorms may move into the vicinity
of KTCC and KLVS late today and produce strong/erratic wind gusts.
Activity will mostly end by midnight and it will be dry through
Sunday morning. Another round of showers and storms Sunday afternoon
into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  93  60  95 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  88  49  89 /   0   5   5   5
Cuba............................  55  88  57  90 /   5  10   5   5
Gallup..........................  50  90  55  90 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  49  86  54  85 /  10  10   5   5
Grants..........................  52  88  55  88 /  10  10  10   5
Quemado.........................  53  86  57  85 /  20  20   5  10
Magdalena.......................  61  87  62  88 /  30  30  20  10
Datil...........................  54  83  58  85 /  20  30  10  10
Reserve.........................  54  90  54  91 /  20  20   5  10
Glenwood........................  65  94  67  94 /  20  10   5   5
Chama...........................  47  83  48  82 /   0  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  62  87  62  86 /   5  10  10   5
Pecos...........................  60  88  60  88 /  10  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  54  85  56  82 /   5  10  10  20
Red River.......................  47  76  49  73 /  10  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  44  80  49  79 /  10  20  10  20
Taos............................  50  88  52  88 /   5  10   5  10
Mora............................  54  85  52  85 /  20  20  10  10
Espanola........................  60  93  61  93 /   5  10  10   5
Santa Fe........................  62  88  62  89 /   5  10  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  58  91  59  92 /   5  10  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  92  67  93 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  66  95 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  95  67  97 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  94  67  96 /  10   5  10   0
Belen...........................  62  95  64  97 /  10  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  63  96  65  97 /  10   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  60  95  64  96 /  10  10  10   0
Corrales........................  63  95  66  97 /  10   5  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  61  95  65  96 /  10  10  10   0
Placitas........................  66  91  66  93 /  10  10  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  64  94  66  96 /  10   5  10   0
Socorro.........................  66  95  66  97 /  20  20  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  86  62  89 /  20  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  64  89  63  92 /  20  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  59  89  59  91 /  20  20  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  91  57  93 /  20  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  58  87  59  89 /  20  20  20   5
Mountainair.....................  60  88  60  90 /  20  20  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  59  88  59  90 /  20  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  65  93 /  20  20  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  81  59  87 /  30  40  20  30
Capulin.........................  54  89  57  87 /  10  10  10  20
Raton...........................  51  93  55  91 /  10  10  10  20
Springer........................  53  94  56  93 /  10  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  56  88  56  89 /  20  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  63  95  64  93 /  10  10  20  20
Roy.............................  60  93  60  92 /  20  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  66  99  67  99 /  30  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  63  96  64  97 /  20  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  69 100  71 100 /  30  10  20  20
Clovis..........................  66  96  67  98 /  30  10  20  20
Portales........................  67  97  68  99 /  30  10  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  98  67  98 /  20  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  70  99  71 103 /  20  20  10  20
Picacho.........................  63  91  64  93 /  20  30  20  30
Elk.............................  61  87  62  89 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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