Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 121147 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
447 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Areas of fog with very low cigs around KROW will dissipate thru
sunrise as winds veer westerly. Patchy valley fog within central NM
may impact KABQ briefly this morning although confidence is too low
for a mention at the terminal. West-northwest winds will increase
slightly today across central/western NM with patchy high clouds.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog over southeast New Mexico this morning are
expected to dissipate by mid morning. A strong jet stream moving
across the southern Rockies today through Saturday will increase
surface winds over New Mexico. The strongest winds will impact the
eastern plains where gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures will also warm above normal for the entire
area with periodic high clouds moving through the state. The next
storm system will impact northern New Mexico Saturday night through
Sunday with several inches of snow in the high terrain, more wind,
and much colder temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Areas of dense fog and very low ceilings over southeast NM early
this morning will erode slowly from west to east as indicated by
trends in the GOES-E nighttime microphysics product. There is
considerable uncertainty with how fast the clearing will occur in the
Pecos Valley while surface winds veer southwest. Will monitor obs
for potential expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory into Chaves County.
Otherwise, today will be quiet with increasing west to northwest
winds, lower humidity, and warming temperatures.

The focus Friday will be wind along the I-40 corridor of eastern NM.
700-500mb flow of 60 kt will combine with a strengthening surface
pressure gradient over the eastern plains through Friday afternoon.
Confidence is high that west-northwest winds will reach advisory
criteria under strong laminar flow conditions, deep mixing, and above
normal temps.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A cooling trend will occur Saturday through Monday as a longwave
trough carves a deep niche over the western US. There will also be
snow across northern areas, and especially in the mountains north of
I-40.  A series of shortwave troughs are forecast to cross beginning
Saturday, followed by a more pronounced upper level trough and
Pacific cold front Sunday and Sunday night. Orographic lift will be
a key forcing mechanism prior to the arrival of the upper level
trough. It will also be cool with mountain top temps in the -2 to -4C
range Saturday and Saturday night, before cooling further with the
upper level trough and cold front Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
The northern mountains should squeeze out several inches to over a
foot of snow, especially with higher snow-to- liquid-water ratios
expected to develop with the upper trough late in the weekend. Lower
elevations of the north, as well as west central areas, should also
receive up to a few inches of snow as the upper level trough crosses.
The upper trough will also steer a strong jet stream across the
forecast areas over the weekend, with breezy to windy conditions both
Saturday and Sunday. Winds at 700 mb may peak around 60 KT along the
central mountain chain Saturday night, with gusts over 60 mph
possible on mountain peaks. Lower elevation winds may peak around 30
to 45 mph Saturday, then around 40 to 55 mph Sunday (except across
the northeast where winds will be weaker on Sunday behind a back door
cold front). The wind will blow and drift the snow in the northern
mountains, producing periods of near whiteout conditions.

Precipitation will diminish by Monday, but high temperatures will
continue to fall in the wake of Sunday/Sunday night`s Pacific and
back door cold fronts. Highs will bottom out Monday around 5 to 15
degrees below normal. A second upper level trough with little or no
precipitation will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Monday
night, then a ridge of high pressure will cross the state from the
west late Tuesday through the middle of next week with warmer
temperatures.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong jet stream winds will focus over NM through Saturday as a
series of fast-moving upper level waves traverse the Rockies. The
strongest surface winds will impact eastern NM through this period
where gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common. Temperatures will be 5
to 15 degrees above normal and humidity will remain above 20% each
day. Vent rates will improve to excellent for much of the area as
well. The next storm system will move across northern NM Sunday with
accumulating snow along west facing slopes of ridges, more wind, and
significantly colder temperatures. Vent rates will deteriorate to
poor for most areas through Tuesday with below normal temperatures.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.