Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222350 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Showers and thunderstorms persist across far western and northern NM
early this evening. Storms across northern NM are propagating
southward, and may impact SAF, AEG and ABQ this evening. Brief MVFR
cigs and vsbys will be possible in the stronger cores. Outflow wind
gusts near 35kts will also be possible. Meanwhile, storms are
ongoing south of ROW with other showers/t-storms develop near ROW.
Expect this area to fill in and shift westward overnight over the
south central mtns to include KSRR. Locally heavy rain and low vsbys
are likely. MVFR cigs may also develop late tonight into Tuesday
morning at KLVS, KROW and KTCC. 34


.PREV DISCUSSION...343 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019...
Showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy, will continue well into the
late evening and overnight hours. An organized area of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to southeast portions
of the state late tonight and Tuesday morning. Scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will favor the northern and southwest
mountains Tuesday and Wednesday with storms becoming more widespread
again Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will trend up back
toward average for this time of year after below to well below
average temperatures today and Tuesday.


After a relatively cool morning, showers and thunderstorms are
getting a late start this afternoon. Hi- res models, however, remain
in good agreement for late this afternoon through the overnight hours
with regard to strong storms along and near the divide as well as
strong storms associated with at least one Mesoscale Convective
Vortex (MCV) over the east- central plains tonight. Issued a flash
flood watch for overnight for the south-central mountains, portions
of Lincoln County and all of Chaves County. Hi-res models have been
consistent over the past couple of days showing an MCV (satellite
confirmed) combining with storms along the backdoor front to the
south and easterly upslope flow to create heavy rainfall potential.
This is not to take a way from the flash flood watch across western
NM this evening. Still expecting strong storms over the west-central
and Chuska mountains to congeal with storms moving south of the San
Juan Mountains in CO to form a somewhat organized cluster of storms
over northwest and west- central areas this evening.

Tomorrow will be a tricky day in terms of forecasting where storms
will fire during the afternoon. Scattered morning showers and a lot
of cloud cover will make for a late start over the mountains and
likely showers or storms in lower elevation areas that typically
don`t see convection during mid afternoon. Main change Wednesday
will be dry air aloft shutting down the east while storms are most
active over the north and west. Very light steering flow will result
in the potential for heavy rainfall.

Four Corners` high shifts south over southwest NM/southeast AZ
Thursday. This allows north to northwest flow aloft to move over NM.
Both GFS and ECWMF continue to bring in a weak short-wave around the
upper high Thursday afternoon. This pattern is reminiscent of the
July 26, 2013 severe storm that moved through ABQ from the north.
A similar scenario is forecast for Friday as well.

Upper high flattens somewhat over AZ Saturday with westerlies
starting to bring in drier air according to the operational GFS.
ECMWF says not so fast, not drying things out until early next week.



Moisture is trending up and daytime temperatures are trending down
today behind a backdoor front. The added moisture will result in an
increase in coverage of wetting storms, beginning later this
afternoon and evening, with improved humidity recovery going
forward. The upper high is forecast to wobble around the region for
the foreseeable future, mainly to our west, with daily rounds of
wetting storms and daytime temperatures trending back to near
normal. Storms may become more focused across eastern New Mexico
late in the weekend and into early next week, as the latest medium
range model solutions show dry air pushing in from the northwest and
no additional moisture input.



Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday
morning for the following zones... NMZ526-538>540.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ504-506-507.


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