Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160135 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
735 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

Cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, because the intense
convection has exited east of the state. Also, updated the forecast
for the remainder of tonight to keep a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. According to mesoscale models the
convection will mostly be relegated to the northern mountains, upper
Rio Grande Valley, and eastern areas after midnight. A few cells may
linger into early Sunday morning north of Taos.



.PREV DISCUSSION...602 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021...
Mesoscale models depict a broken line of thunderstorms over NM`s
eastern most counties gradually shifting eastward into TX early this
evening. Isolated and gusty showers and thunderstorms will then
linger in its wake across much of the forecast area until sunset,
except into the late night hours across north central and eastern
areas. Low clouds will then produce MVFR and IFR conditions across
parts of the eastern plains tonight until mid morning on Sunday. The
greatest confidence is south of the Caprock including KCVN and KROW
at this time; however, there is a risk that low clouds will impact
KLVS, KTCC, and KCAO as well. Dry and gusty southwest winds will
develop on Sunday, except for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that will develop with the arrival of another backdoor
cold front over northeast and eventually far east central areas
during the afternoon and evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening across
the Land of Enchantment. Some storms may be severe with damaging wind
gusts and large hail across far eastern New Mexico. Drier southwest
winds will spread across much of the state on Sunday, but a few
strong to severe storms will remain possible across far northeast
areas. Severe weather potential will continue for portions of eastern
New Mexico each afternoon next week. Due to the elevated storm
chances and cloud cover, high temperatures for the next week will
mainly be near or below normal.


A storm over north central CA will drift southeast into western AZ
Sunday and central AZ Sunday night. At the surface, low level drying
is occurring in western and central NM as dewpoints have lowered
into the 20s. Across the eastern plains dewpoints are in the 40s.
This will be the focus for thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon
into early tonight. In fact, isolated severe thunderstorms are a
possibility along the far eastern plains near the TX border. From
the Continental to the RGV a few dry storms are likely with strong
wind gusts to 50 mph. Things will quiet down tonight with above
normal lows. Low clouds and patchy fog may grip the eastern plains
overnight, while a wind shift will hug the far northeast plains.

A weak ridge of high pressure will settle over NM Sunday with
overall drier conditions. Enough moisture may still exist in the
east for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The above
mentioned wind shift will still be in the northeast and could be the
focus for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be
near to a little above normal just about everywhere.

A Pacific low will shift eastward across northern New Mexico late
Monday through Tuesday. On Monday, a boundary will be draped across
northeast/east central New Mexico from the previous days convection
near the CO border. Low level upslope onto the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains will allow convection to develop by late morning, before
shifting eastward through the afternoon. 30-40kts of bulk shear and
steep mid level lapse rates yielding 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE will allow
for some organized severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats. As the low translates eastward on Tuesday, shear
values will decrease, but the boundary from the previous day will
have inevitably pushed farther to the south and west. Therefore,
storms should again initiate on the Central Mountain Chain, though
this time extending southward to the Sacramento Mtns. Slower storm
motions will be in store, but should generally shift toward the
southeast. Storms may not be as organized as Monday, but should
still have strong lapse rates beneath the low, thus a few strong to
perhaps severe storms are possible. Isolated to scattered storms will
be possible west of the Central Mountain Chain on Tuesday as well,
but would be aided by the boundary if it pushed through the gaps of
the Central Mountain Chain Monday night and replenished some low
level moisture.

A shortwave ridge will cross NM on Wednesday, though there will
be plenty of moisture around for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Though thunderstorms will be possible nearly anywhere,
if a boundary exists across northeast NM from the previous days
convection, it will be a focus for any stronger storms.

The GFS is the outlier on Thursday. It quickly swings across a potent
shortwave trough across NM, which in turn, results in widespread
thunderstorms. Since other operational and ensemble models do not
show this feature, the GFS was largely discounted. Thus, while there
may be isolated to scattered storms, they should not be as widespread
as what the GFS suggests.

As the next upstream Pacific low moves over the Great Basin on
Friday, southwesterly flow will increase over NM and drier air aloft
should push into western NM. Meanwhile, the dryline across eastern NM
will sharpen. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the dryline during the afternoon and evening.



A slow moving storm is over north central CA this afternoon and it
will drift southeast tonight and Sunday, with the center near Las
Vegas Sunday evening. It will crawl across northern AZ Sunday night
and reach the Four Corners region Monday. Additional energy rotating
around the upper low will stall the system over NM Tuesday, then
will finally move east of the state Wednesday.

Expect an increase in lightning activity through this evening, with
wetting storms across eastern New Mexico and drier storms along/west
of the RGV. A wind shift in the northeast will stall there tonight
and Sunday. Most places will dry out Sunday except the northeast.
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible for an hour or
two over western NM.

Monday and Tuesday will be increasingly more moist with thunderstorm
coverage increasing each day. Even though a weak ridge of high
pressure will be over NM Wednesday, residual moisture will keep the
atmosphere pretty active. A disturbance crossing Thursday will also
prolong our shower and thunderstorm chances. Some drying is possible
late next week into the weekend.





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