Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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857
FXUS65 KABQ 160530 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1030 PM MST Tue Jan 15 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper trough approaching NM from AZ will result in deteriorating
conditions in rain, snow and br mainly over the northwest third of
NM with areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys with mt obscurations.
Conditions expected to improve aft 16/18Z as the trough exits NM.
Deepening lee surface low in eastern New Mexico will result in
increasing west winds along and east of the central mountain chain
and along and north of Interstate 40 aft 16/12Z with gusts to around
40kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MST Tue Jan 15 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move through northwestern New Mexico
tonight and Wednesday with more valley rain showers and mountain
snow. Two to five inches of snow is expected in the area from Navajo
Lake to Dulce and Chama, with locally higher amounts near 10 inches
on higher mountain ridges near the Colorado border. Westerly winds
will increase over eastern New Mexico Wednesday as this storm passes
through the region. A few areas may see gusts in excess of 45 mph.
Thursday will be the quietest day of the week before the next winter
storm moves into the area Friday. This next storm system will be much
colder with light snow possible for many areas through Saturday
morning. Cold and brisk weather will continue through the weekend in
the wake of this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The GOES-16/17 composite water vapor imagery shows an elongated tap
of Pacific moisture surging eastward into the western U.S. with at
least two well defined storm systems. The first storm is showing up
on radar reflectivity with widespread precipitation currently over
AZ. This precip will shift northeast into NM tonight as an 85 knot
upper level jet slides through central NM. The combination of deep
moisture and southwest flow will be enhanced by orographics in the
northwest mts to produce several inches of snow through Wednesday.
There will be no change to the current winter wx advisories. Higher
peaks and ridges of the Chuska and Jemez Mts will also see a few
inches but forecast coverage does not warrant advisories at this
time. The other part of the story with this system will be wind over
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the eastern plains late tonight through
Wednesday. Spotty gusts up to 50 mph are possible but again forecast
coverage does not warrant advisories at this time.

Thursday will feature a brief break as a weak shortwave ridge moves
quickly east through NM. Wind profiles will still be favorable for
mountain wave activity along the east slopes with localized wind
gusts near 45 mph. Downslope flow in the east will also favor max
temps up to 15F above normal.

The next winter storm will move into the Great Basin Thursday night
as a moist 130 knot upper jet shifts east into the area. Models are
in good agreement showing widespread precip spreading into northern
and western NM late Thursday night. A strong cold front is depicted
racing southeast through western NM Friday morning with a band of
snow entering central NM through early Friday afternoon. A mix of
rain/snow is more likely in the lower elevations of the RGV. Impacts
will be greater with this system due to stronger winds, colder air,
higher snow ratios, blowing snow, and low visibilities. The degree
of strengthening over eastern NM is still somewhat uncertain on the
latest models however guidance continues to trend deeper and farther
south. At a minimum, much colder air, brisk winds, and snow showers
will spread into eastern NM through Friday afternoon. Colder and
brisk weather will continue for the entire area through the weekend.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As another Pacific storm system approaches from the west this
evening, clouds and winds will be on the increase in the higher
terrain initially and then areawide on Wednesday. Rain with snow
above about 6500 feet will favor the northwest quarter tonight and
over the northern mountains Wednesday morning. The low elevation
rain and mountain snow gradually tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday night and
continues into Thursday ahead of a stronger Pacific storm slated for
late Thursday night and Friday. This system is forecast to drop
farther south, bringing a round of rain with accumulating snow above
about 6000 feet west of the central mountain chain by Friday
afternoon. Accumulating snow is forecast for the eastern plains
Friday night. A dry weekend is expected underneath westerly flow
aloft.

Ventilation rates will trend up Wednesday, especially east, then
trend back down into the fair to poor range Thursday. Rates trend
back up across southern and eastern portions of the state Friday.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ503-510.

&&

$$



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