176
FXUS65 KABQ 112330 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry
  vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread Thursday
  and again this weekend across eastern and portions of central
  NM.

- A strong backdoor cold front will bring notably colder and brisk
  conditions to eastern NM Sunday into Monday.

- Strong high pressure will move over the region going into the
  middle of next week, with high temperatures likely challenging
  daily and March records.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The backdoor cold front that pressed through eastern NM this morning
has nudged up against the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain.
Temps are quite chilly, especially as compared to yesterday.
Northeasterly winds are slowly decreasing, and the Wind Advisory
for this area expired at noon. At or above normal temps continue
across the west.

Temperatures quickly rebound on Thursday. The surface front will
mix out as strong west to northwest flow mixes to the surface.
Additionally, a 1005 surface low will develop over southeast CO
during the afternoon hours. This will result in westerly winds
increasing by late morning. Winds will be strongest across
eastern NM where gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be common. This
strong downsloping will aid in temperatures rebounding into the
70s across the eastern plains. In fact, all areas across northern
and central NM will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

A belt of 30-40kt H7 winds will persist from northwest NM to
southeast NM Thursday night. Therefore, could see a few erratic
gusts Thursday night around KCQC and Vaughn, but overall, winds
should diminish Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend, though on
Sunday, an upper level trough will cross the northern and central
Rockies, steering the upper level jet more squarely over northern
NM. Thus, winds will continue to be the main story for the next
several days. On Friday, the surface low will slide southward and
position itself over east central NM. This will keep winds from
getting as strong as they will today, with one exception being
around KCQC. Nonetheless, temps will continue to rise. All areas
will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a new surface
low will deepen over eastern CO to between 992-995mb. Deep mixing
is expected, but mid level flow will not notably increase until
late Saturday in response to the approaching trough. Nonetheless,
widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected, especially
across north central and northeast NM. High temperatures areawide
will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal and a few locations will be
near records for the date. Mid level (H7) winds will increase
overnight to between 50 and 65kt along and east of the Central
Mountain Chain. Concern exists for strong and erratic wind gusts
due to mountain wave activity along and east of the Central Mtn
Chain early Sunday morning. Immediately east of the Central Mtn
Chain, these winds will rapidly increase with daytime mixing on
Sunday. However, a strong backdoor cold front will quickly press
into NE NM by mid morning Sunday and will race southward through
the afternoon. This front will quickly switch winds around to the
north and northeast and gusty winds, perhaps up to 50 mph, are
expected behind it. This front will cool temperatures, but most
areas will remain above normal Sunday afternoon. Models are
indicating that the front will push westward through the gaps of
the Central Mountain Chain late Sunday night, bringing a gap wind
to the Rio Grande Valley. A hard freeze is expected Sunday night
for much of eastern NM and high temperatures on Monday across this
area will be near or just below normal.

Meanwhile, a 588-590dam H5 high will be shifting over CA on Monday
and then will continue to slide eastward over the Desert Southwest
and slowly strengthen through mid week. This will both keep winds
light and allow temperatures to soar. Record heat is likely
Tuesday through much of the rest of the week and even March
records will be in jeopardy. Any snowpack that remains will
quickly decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty west-northwest winds across
northwest and north central NM will taper off around sunset.
East- northeast winds across eastern NM will quickly turn around
to south winds early Thursday morning. Gustier west-southwest
winds develop across far northeast NM around sunrise Thursday
expanding south to east central NM late Thursday morning due to
the development of a surface lee trough. Gusty west-southwest
winds across northern and east central NM Thursday afternoon with
peak wind gusts of around 25 to 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across
eastern NM, especially along and 50 miles either side of
Interstate 40. Westerly wind gusts up to 50 mph and humidity
values dropping into or close to the single digits are expected.
The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded into a Red Flag Warning.
Winds will not be as strong across eastern NM on Friday, except
across portions of the Central Highlands where a few hours of
critical fire weather conditions remain possible in a small area.
Westerly winds increase again on Saturday across north central and
northeast NM. Meanwhile, widespread single digit RH will be the
rule in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be on
tap for at least the Northeast Highlands and the upper Rio Grande
Valley. A backdoor cold front will race across eastern NM on
Sunday. Wind gusts behind the front will be up to 50 mph, and
though temps will be cooling, RH values will still be below 15
percent for most areas. Thus, near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions are not out of the question across eastern NM,
even behind the cold front. It will be cooler on Monday but still
breezy. Less wind will be in store Tues and Wed, however,
temperatures will soar to record numbers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  68  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  22  64  25  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  28  63  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  22  69  24  72 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  28  64  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  70  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  28  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  35  69  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  66  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  28  71  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  75  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  23  59  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  34  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  27  64  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  61  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  23  51  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  17  57  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  23  64  26  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  26  64  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  30  71  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  65  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  28  67  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  34  74  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  36  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  31  75  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  34  72  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  74  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  35  73  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  74  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  36  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  35  72  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  37  76  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  34  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  35  65  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  31  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  23  69  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  28  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  31  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  31  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  37  67  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  33  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  24  68  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  20  70  30  75 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  24  72  31  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  25  68  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  73  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  27  73  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  79  37  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  74  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  30  78  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  29  73  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  28  73  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  76  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  36  75  42  86 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  32  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  29  73  39  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71