


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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813 FXUS65 KABQ 131921 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding today and a low to moderate chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger storms that develop across the central mountain chain, eastern highlands and De Baca and Chaves County. - Storms in central and southeast New Mexico have the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. - The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next week, keeping the threat of burn scar flash flooding moderate to high each day through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The 596 dam monsoon upper high, centered just off the coast of Southern CA near Los Angeles, is currently building northeast across the Great Basin to as far east as the CO Rockies. A moist airmass is remaining in place along and east of the Continental Divide with PWATs around 0.6 to 0.8 inches across central NM and 0.9 to 1.3 inches across eastern and southern NM. Additionally, satellite imagery is showing a defined upper level disturbance (likely originating from yesterday`s shower and storm activity) spinning across southeast NM between Ruidoso and Roswell. Daytime heating and high instability is helping to allow storms to develop across the higher terrain across central and southern NM currently. Storms will slowly move south and east into the surrounding highlands and lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of up to 60 mph as well as large hail. For the Ruidoso area and the HPCC burn scars, these slow and erratically moving storms this afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of up to 3 inches an hour resulting in flash flooding and debris flows on and downstream of the burn scars. Upslope southeast flow across these burn scars will help promote heavy rainfall rates, as well as latch the storms over the burn scars for several hours Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. There is high confidence of rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.75 inches with locally up to 2 inches possible. Individuals in the area should stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings if they are issued. Double check your phone and make sure your wireless emergency alerts are switches on! Going into the evening, storms across the eastern highlands slowly move southeast into the east central and southeast plains. Locally heavy rainfall from rainfall rates of up to 3 inches an hour will result in a higher risk of flash flooding hence why the Flash Flood Watch was expanded to De Baca and Chaves County with the watch in effect from 3 PM to midnight MDT. Storms moving south from the Manzano Mountains and south central highlands could bring a 2nd round of showers and storms to Ruidoso around 8 to 10 PM like late yesterday evening. This could exacerbate potential flash flooding from this afternoon`s round. Any shower and storm activity across southern and eastern NM should taper off around midnight with clearing skies from north to south during the early to mid morning hours. On Monday, the upper high center just off southern CA slowly shifts eastward over the Great Basin. The aforementioned upper level disturbance over south central and southeast NM today, rotates around the upper high circulation to southwest NM and southeast AZ. This disturbance combined with near to slightly above average PWATs of 0.8 to 1.1 inches will help enhance diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity across the western and southern mountains. This includes the Sacramento Mountains and Ruidoso area burn scars. Storm motion will try to be to the south-southwest because of the position of the upper high center, but back building of storms along outflows will help to result in slow and erratic storm motions over the burn scars. The HREF 6 hour QPF mean amounts are showing around 0.5 to 0.75 inches over the burn scars with 6 hr QPF ensemble max amounts of up to 2.5 inches. Antecedent conditions on the burn scar will likely be very wet from today`s storm activity so this could result in another catastrophic flash flooding and debris flow scenario for the burn scars and the village downstream of these burn scars on Monday. For that reason, a new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Ruidoso area. Mid and upper level heights show a weak disturbance moving over the northern Rockies among the jet stream. This will result in shower and thunderstorm development across the CO Rockies with some of this activity extending as far south as the north central mountains in New Mexico. Guidance is depicting slightly drier air and subsidence limiting shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. Thankfully, the HPCC burn scar is on the western edge of this subsidence and slightly drier air. Additionally, any storms that develop across the ridgeline of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will move slowly southwest away from the burn scar due to the clockwise flow around the upper high circulation centered over southern CA and NV. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The monsoon high looks to weaken to around 593 to 594 dam as it continues pivoting east over north central AZ in response to a 575 dam upper level trough moving into northern Idaho and Montana. Guidance favors diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity over north central and western NM. This is likely due to the NAM and global guidance showing a inverted trough across the Permian Basin of West Texas. Subsidence west of this inverted trough axis will help to keep a cap on shower and thunderstorm activity across much of eastern NM during the afternoon and evening hours and potentially give the Ruidoso area a much needed break from shower and thunderstorm activity the prior 2 days. Come Wednesday and Thursday, the upper high over northern AZ moves over New Mexico in an even weaker state before breaking down. This is due to the northern stream upper level trough over Idaho and Montana Tuesday moving southeast across the northern and central Rockies Wednesday and northern and central Great Plains Thursday. Also on Wednesday, an upper low becomes well defined just off the west coast of Baja California. This upper low appears to have origins from the upper level disturbance over south central and southeast NM today, as mentioned in the Short Term. Southerly flow north and east of this low combined with south-southeast flow on the western edge of the broad Bermuda high over the southern US will result in a traditional monsoon setup with western and central NM favored Wednesday afternoon spreading to eastern NM as early as Wednesday evening. The monsoon moisture plume will look to favor all areas Thursday and Friday. During this time, a more widespread coverage of storms with locally heavy rainfall and resultant flash flooding is expected with a heightened risk across recent burn scars and urban areas like the ABQ and Santa Fe metros. Come next weekend, the upper low over Baja CA look to drift north over southern CA while a new upper high centroid tries to establish and strengthen to 596 dam over central TX. This looks to push the monsoon plume and higher shower and thunderstorm coverage more towards western and northern NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the northern, central and southwest mountains with a slow generic motion to the southeast across the surrounding highlands. This will impact KSAF and KLVS first during the mid afternoon hours. For KABQ, storms across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains this afternoon will result in a gusty east canyon wind continuing and peaking during the mid evening hours as these storms exit into the central and south central highlands. An airport weather warning may be needed to cover the latter end of these east canyon winds as convection moves away. Storms across the eastern highlands late this afternoon and early evening look to move south east into the east central and southeast plains with potential impacts to KROW around sunset. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and reductions in visibility, hail and gusty and erratic wind gusts of up to 60 mph. Storms across southern and eastern areas taper off at around midnight with clearing skies Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Shower and thunderstorm coverage are favoring southern and central NM today, and will favor northern and western and southern NM Monday and northern and western NM Tuesday. This is due to the monsoon high just off the southern CA coast expanding west- northwest to as far east as the central Rockies along with some drier air moving into eastern NM early this week. The monsoon high breaks down overhead Wednesday with a more traditional monsoon pattern expected for the state through the end of this upcoming week. A new upper high looks to redevelop east of the state slowly building westward next weekend. This looks to push the monsoon plume and higher storm coverage towards western and northern NM. Any showers and storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding with urban areas and burn scars being the most favored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 96 62 97 / 10 20 20 5 Dulce........................... 47 91 45 92 / 40 70 40 60 Cuba............................ 55 87 56 90 / 40 60 50 40 Gallup.......................... 53 92 52 93 / 10 40 40 30 El Morro........................ 56 88 54 88 / 30 60 60 60 Grants.......................... 55 91 54 93 / 30 50 50 60 Quemado......................... 57 88 57 89 / 50 70 70 80 Magdalena....................... 60 86 62 88 / 50 60 40 60 Datil........................... 55 85 55 86 / 50 70 50 70 Reserve......................... 52 92 53 93 / 50 80 60 80 Glenwood........................ 57 95 58 96 / 50 70 60 80 Chama........................... 47 82 47 84 / 40 70 40 70 Los Alamos...................... 58 83 60 85 / 40 60 40 70 Pecos........................... 55 81 56 85 / 40 50 30 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 83 54 87 / 40 60 40 70 Red River....................... 44 74 46 77 / 30 60 30 70 Angel Fire...................... 38 76 40 79 / 30 50 20 70 Taos............................ 50 86 51 88 / 40 50 30 50 Mora............................ 49 79 50 84 / 40 50 20 60 Espanola........................ 58 92 59 95 / 40 50 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 58 84 60 88 / 40 40 30 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 88 59 91 / 40 40 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 91 69 94 / 40 40 40 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 93 67 96 / 40 30 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 95 66 98 / 40 30 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 67 96 / 30 30 40 20 Belen........................... 62 94 64 97 / 40 30 30 10 Bernalillo...................... 63 94 65 98 / 40 30 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 61 93 63 97 / 40 30 30 10 Corrales........................ 64 95 66 98 / 40 30 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 63 93 65 97 / 40 30 30 10 Placitas........................ 62 90 65 93 / 40 30 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 63 93 66 97 / 40 30 40 20 Socorro......................... 65 95 67 98 / 50 40 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 86 59 89 / 40 40 30 40 Tijeras......................... 58 86 62 90 / 40 30 30 40 Edgewood........................ 52 86 56 90 / 40 40 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 86 54 90 / 40 40 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 54 80 57 84 / 40 40 20 30 Mountainair..................... 55 84 58 88 / 50 40 30 30 Gran Quivira.................... 55 83 58 86 / 50 50 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 60 85 63 88 / 50 50 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 55 77 56 80 / 40 80 10 40 Capulin......................... 53 81 54 85 / 20 10 10 30 Raton........................... 53 85 53 89 / 20 20 10 30 Springer........................ 55 86 55 90 / 30 20 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 52 81 54 86 / 40 30 10 50 Clayton......................... 60 86 62 91 / 10 10 5 5 Roy............................. 57 83 59 88 / 30 10 5 20 Conchas......................... 63 90 65 95 / 30 10 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 60 86 62 91 / 50 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 60 87 62 92 / 30 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 63 88 65 93 / 30 20 5 0 Portales........................ 64 88 65 93 / 30 20 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 63 88 65 93 / 50 10 5 5 Roswell......................... 67 91 68 95 / 50 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 60 85 60 89 / 50 40 10 20 Elk............................. 57 82 58 86 / 40 60 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-214-215- 221>224-226-229-233-239. Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ237-238-240. Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71