Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270739 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region today becomes centered off the southeast coast into weekend. A cold front approaches from the north late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... Latest analysis indicates a broad area of surface high pressure centered from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the local area. The flow aloft and at the surface remains rather light across the region. The area of high pressure eventually migrates off the coast by this afternoon. Expecting another very warm day today with highs generally ranging from the low to mid 90s. Day time highs will be a degree or two higher today compared to yesterday. Otherwise, any higher clouds should diminish/sink south of the region through this morning with just some scattered cumulus by this afternoon. Expect dry conditions today with a capped airmass. While a shower or storm might try to develop off the mountains by this afternoon and impact the far NW, the probability remains low. Light and variable winds are expected to persist this morning through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... The region will remain under the influence of high pressure into Saturday, with an area of high pressure sitting offshore and extending back into the Carolinas. No substantial changes to the previous forecast with a very warm and capped airmass across the region through the period. Will have to watch for convective complexes in the nw flow that moves se across the mountains, but the majority of this activity should remain to our west. The ridge begins to break down Saturday and retrogrades to the west due to an upper level system that drops sse from ern Canada. This should allow for some late day convection to spill into the Piedmont so maintained slight chance aftn/eve PoPs across the north/west. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s on both Friday and Saturday, with Saturday likely being the warmest day of the week. Dewpoints slowly rise during the period, climbing to the upper 60s to lower 70s by Saturday. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across portions of the region on both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Lows through the period will be mild, generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday... The upr level low conts to sink sse to a position off the New England coast Sun. This pushes a backdoor front south across the area Sun eve. Models differ on how much moisture accompanies the front, so will keep low chc poPs Sun aftn and eve for now. Highs Sun upr 80s- mid 90s. Lows Sun night mid 60s-lwr 70s. Mstly sunny Mon as high pressure builds into the area. Highs in the 80s. Continued dry Mon night. Lows 65-70. The heat/humidity return Tue/Wed along with some moisture. Thus will carry low chc PoPs each day. Highs both days in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows 70-75. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SKC below 20k feet tonight (along with light/calm winds) as high pressure remains near the area. Winds shift to the NE on Thu but remain aob 10 kt. FEW-SCT CU (~5-7k feet) will develop around midday Thu and persist through the aftn, but it will remain dry. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions continue through Sun. There is a very slight (< 20%) chc of isolated aftn-evening convection on Fri/Sat. There is a slightly better chc of SHRAs/tstms late Sun as a cold front approaches from the north. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday... No headlines UFN. Quiet wx conditions expected through the next couple/few days w/ hi pres in control. Winds generally VRB and aob 10 kt through Fri. Hi pres will move offshore by late Fri into the weekend. SW winds increase a bit during that time period but remain sub-SCA w/ speeds ~10 kt in the Bay/rivers and 10-15 kt offshore. NNW winds expected by end of the weekend/early next but will likely remain blo SCA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...ALB

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