-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
184
FXUS61 KAKQ 140516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1216 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front moves through tonight with a reinforcing cold front
moving through the area Tuesday night. This will result in cold
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures moderate by late
week into the weekend. Dry weather prevails through Friday night
with rain chances increasing this weekend. Another cold front pushes
through Sunday with cooler weather expected by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 855 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A dry cold front crosses the FA tonight.

A dry cold front is making its way through the region as of
latest sfc analysis and will push offshore by early morning.
Latest obs reflect temps generally in the upper 30s to around
40, though a few rural locations are a bit colder. Low tonight
will be on either side of 20 for interior locations, mid-upper
20s in the far SE and immediately near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
  especially near the coast.

- Cold conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with wind
  chills in the single digits possible across the northern half
  of the area both nights. Cold Weather Advisories may be
  needed for some of the area.

A dry cold front moves through tonight with a reinforcing cold front
moving through the area Tue night. This will result in cold
temperatures on Tue and Wed. A breezy W wind develops on Tue with
gusts up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along the coast and
across the Eastern Shore. Highs Tue are expected to range from the
low-mid 30s across the Eastern Shore to the low-mid 40s across S VA/
NE NC with wind chills generally below freezing apart from SE VA/NE
NC during the afternoon. The coldest air arrives Tue night into Wed
behind the second cold front with winds becoming NW and remaining
elevated through the night, especially along the coast and across
the Eastern Shore. Wind gusts for these areas remain 20-30 mph
through the night, allowing for cold wind chills. Wind chills will
be very cold everywhere Tue night into Wed morning with single digit
values across the N half of the FA and lower teens across the S
half. As such, Cold Weather Advisories are possible for some of the
FA Tue night into Wed morning with the best chance across the
Eastern Shore where winds are strongest. Additionally, cannot
completely rule out a brief, isolated flurry E of I-95 early Tue
night as a shortwave moves through. However, forecast soundings show
fairly dry air in the lowest levels and only marginal saturation in
the DGZ. As such, confidence is too low to go with mentionable PoPs.

Breezy conditions continue into Wed with gusts up to 20 mph inland
and up to 30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. This
will allow for wind chills to remain in the 20s for most areas in
the afternoon given highs in the lower 30s N and upper 30s S. Winds
diminish Wed night as high pressure builds in. However, with calm
winds and clear skies, expect temps to drop into the teens inland
with near single digits possible across the far N portions of the
FA. A light NW wind is possible across the Eastern Shore, however,
which may allow for wind chills to drop in the single digits. As
such, a Cold Weather Advisory is possible Wed night into Thu morning
mainly across the Eastern Shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate by late week into the weekend.

- Rain chances increase this weekend. Rain may end as snow
  Sunday night into Monday.

- Colder weather arrives early next week behind a cold front.

High pressure over the N gulf of Mexico Thu moves off the Southeast
coast Fri. This will result in a brief warmup with temps increasing
to the upper 30s N to mid 40s S Thu, low-mid 40s NE to around 50F SW
Fri, upper 40s N to mid 50s S Sat, and mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Sun.
Lows also moderate with temps in the low-mid 20s inland (upper 20s
to around 30F along the coast) Thu night, lower 30s (mid 30s along
the coast) Fri night, and lower 30s NW to around 40F SE Sat night.

The next chance for precip arrives this weekend as a cold front
slowly moves through the area. Models continue to show the potential
for several shortwaves moving through the area between Sat and the
middle of next week along a slowly eastward moving baroclinic zone.
There is high confidence that the first wave will be plain rain
across the local area Sat into early Sun given mild temps. As such
have PoPs increasing to ~50% everywhere Sat. However, confidence
decreases Sun into Mon with respect to the second shortwave. Precip
type will be largely determined by how far E the cold front gets
before a potential second area of low pressure develops. For now,
have kept NBM PoPs and temps which have rain Sun ending as snow Sun
night into Mon (mainly across the NW). Will reiterate that
confidence in any winter precip is low at this time. Otherwise,
temps cool behind the cold front Sun night with lows in the mid 20s
NW to lower 30s SE. Cooler temps are expected Mon with highs in the
mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon and lows in the upper teens NW to mid
20s SE Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1215 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR prevails for the 06z/14 TAF period. Skies will be mostly
clear through this afternoon, then cloud cover increases from N
to S late this aftn-this evening as an Arctic cold front crosses
the area. However, CIGs will be no lower than 6000-7000ft AGL.
Winds will be aob 10 kt through mid morning, then increase to
10-15kt (w/ a few gusts to 20 kt) out of the W-WNW today. Winds
become WNW-NW behind the Arctic front, with gusty winds to ~25
kt expected after 00z.

Outlook: VFR with mainly clear skies from Wed-Fri. The elevated
WNW-NW winds continue through Wednesday with gusts to 25 kt
expected (highest across the MD eastern shore). Lighter winds
are expected on Thu/Fri. A low pressure system will likely bring
rain to the terminals from Sat-Sat night, along with a period of
sub-VFR conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops across the waters late tonight. SCAs have
  been issued for the northern waters from late tonight /early
  Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon for NW winds
  behind the initial cold front.

- Gale Warnings have been issued for the Bay and Atlantic
  coastal waters Tue night into Wed morning behind an Arctic
  cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
  rivers and Currituck Sound.

Low pressure is tracking eastward across lower Ontario this
afternoon, with the associated dry cold front extending south
just west of the waters. Winds have increased slightly ahead of
the front, with winds averaging W-SW winds 10-15 kt. Waves 1-2
ft, with 2-3 ft seas.

Winds still expected to ramp up late this evening and overnight
ahead of the initial cold frontal passage, with winds becoming
W-NW post-frontal. Wind speeds will increase to ~20 kt across
the northern bay/coastal waters N of Parramore Island, with ~15
kt winds expected farther south by early Tue AM. SCAs remain in
effect for our far N bay zone N of Windmill Pt and ocean N of
Parramore Island starting at 06z/1 AM EST Tue. W-NW winds then
average 15-25 kt across the nrn bay/coastal waters Tue, with
winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt, just under SCA criteria, for
most of the waters until late Tue aftn.

The secondary, stronger Arctic cold front crosses the waters
Tuesday evening. This will allow the winds to turn NW and
rapidly increase due to the strong CAA behind the front combined
with a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure deepens off
the New England coast. Still expect sustained winds to increase
to near 30 kt (w/ frequent gusts up to 40 kt) across the bay
and ocean, with wind speeds around 25 kt (with 30-35 kt gusts)
on the rivers/Currituck Sound Tuesday night. Local wind
probabilities have increased slightly, still showing a 60-80%
chance of 34+ kt gusts across central and eastern portions of
the bay, with lower probs on the west side of the bay. Probs for
gale force gusts continue to be near 100% on the ocean. Could
even see a few gusts to 45 kt north of Windmill Pt/Parramore
Island Tue night given the strong CAA combined with 925mb winds
potentially in the 40-45 kt range across the northern waters.
Boundary layer wind fields are progged to be slightly lower
across the southern waters, with stronger winds also likely
shorter in duration. Nonetheless, still looking at high gale
probs here over the southern waters also, mainly after midnight
Tuesday into Wednesday. Also, will likely see occasional gusts
up to 45 kt at elevated sites even across the lower bay and
southern coastal waters. Given this, have upgraded to Gale
Warning for the Atlantic coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay from
6p-6a Tue into Wed, with a slightly later start time south of
the VA/NC border to account for the slightly slower CAA timing.
In addition to the strong winds Tuesday night, light freezing
spray is likely on the bay, rivers, and coastal waters N of
Cape Charles. Seas remain 2-3 ft tonight (waves 1-2 ft), then
slowly build to 4 to 7 feet by Tue night into Wed (4 to 5 feet
waves in the bay). Waves/seas should subside below SCA criteria
by Thursday morning.

NW winds gradually subside Wednesday aftn through Thursday,
although winds likely remain above SCA thresholds through much
of Wed night. SCA flags can be added after current Gale
headlines are no longer needed. The surface ridge builds in
across the waters by Thu, with the slackening gradient allowing
for winds to shift to W or SW while diminishing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     650-652.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...ERI/MAM