Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211752 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 152 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure remains anchored along or just off the Carolina coast through this weekend. A weak cold front will push across the area Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM EDT Saturday... Sfc hi pres sits just off the NC coast this morning providing SKC conditoins w/ winds SW blo 10 mph. Out over the mountains...SCT-BKN mid level clouds spreading slowly E. The rest of today will be dry w/ SSW winds generally aob 10 mph. Some of the near term guidance suggests ISOLD pcpn reaches far WNW VA by late this afternoon/early evening. Will continue w/ the idea of at least SCT clouds spreading over W and NW portions of the FA this afternoon. OTW...sunny w/ highs in the m-u80s over the Piedmont and Central VA w/ 80-85F closer to the coast (locally upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). While dew points rise compared to the past few will still be pleasant (as they are expected to avg in the m-u50s to l60s). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Bufkit soundings suggest some mid level clouds will also be possible tonight, but overall it would be partly cloudy at most. Warmer with a light SSW flow yielding overnight mins mostly ranging from the lower to mid 60s, though some upper 50s will likely occur over interior southern VA and NE NC. Turning a bit warmer Sunday with increasing S flow...resulting in highs 85-90F inland and low to mid 80s near the coast. Sfc hi pres becomes elongated ENE-WSW from the wrn Atlantic to the SE CONUS and ridge aloft flattens out by Mon as an upper trough moves E from the Great lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. Locally it will be very warm w/ SW winds and partly to mostly sunny conditions. PoPs remain aob 10% through the day with highs 85-90F for all areas. A cold front will be entering the mountains late which may throw a bit more significant cloudiness into the Piedmont by late in the day. The front will be weakening significantly as it crosses the Mtns Mon evening with best moisture and dynamics staying well to our N. Will have 20-30% PoPs confined to the NE sections of the area for ISOLD/SCT SHRAs- tstms, with PoPs at or below 14% elsewhere. Lows Mon night ranging from around 60F NW to the upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... Other than a small opportunity for ISOLD SHRAs-tstms w/ a (weakening) cold front Thu...dry wx and temperatures averaging aoa normal will prevail through the extended forecast period. Highs Wed min the u70s E to 80-85F inland...mainly 85-90F the l80s at the coast and m80s inland then from 80-85F at the coast to the m-u80s inland Sat. Lows in the m50s-l60s Tue night...l-m60s Wed night and m-u60s Thu and Fri nights. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF forecast period. Sfc hi pres remains just off the NC coast through the remainder of the weekend. SSW winds to about 10 kt through late this afternoon...light tonight/Sun morning...then 10-15 kt Sun (afternoon)/Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will cross the area late Mon into early Tue; some mid level clouds are likely, but little to no rain is expected with the front. Behind the front...hi pres builds back into the region with N to NE winds. Expect mostly VFR conditions through the mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered over ern NC. Winds have now veered to the SW over the waters and have increased to 10-15 kt (highest over the ern Ches Bay). A few gusts to 20 kt have been noted at elevated sites on the bay during the past few hours. Seas are still 5-6 N/7-8 ft S of the VA-NC border due to swell from what was TC Humberto. Waves are ~2 ft over most of the Ches Bay, with 3 ft waves at the mouth of the bay. Seas are expected to slowly diminish during the day today before falling below 5 ft this aftn-evening (from N to S). SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 20z/4 PM, and until 23z/7 PM for the srn coastal waters. 5 ft seas may persist through the late evening/early overnight hours for areas S of the VA-NC border, but not confident enough to extend the SCA for just a few hours attm. The area of high pressure moves offshore this weekend. Expect SW winds to diminish to ~10 kt by sunrise and remain around 10 kt through much of the day today. Winds turn to the S and increase slightly (with sustained winds of 12-15 kt) by this evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the aforementioned high and a developing lee trough. A few gusts to 20 kt are likely on the Ches Bay (mainly at elevated sites) from 00-06z Sun. Winds turn to the SW tonight and diminish to ~10 kt by 12z Sun. Winds again increase Sunday evening and persist through the day on Monday (S-SW 15-17 knots over the bay/15-20 kt over the ocean...highest N) before a weak cold front crosses the region late Monday into Tuesday. Not anticipating the need for SCAs today/tonight. However, there is a chc of SCAs late Sun night-Mon...mainly over the nrn coastal waters where local wind probs are showing an 80% chc of 25 kt wind gusts at Buoy 44009. There is also a decent chc of frequent 20 kt gusts over the nrn Ches Bay (from 00-12z Mon), so there is the potential for a short duration SCA there as well. Sub-SCA are conditions expected with the FROPA Mon night-Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... A high rip current risk will continue through this evening due to increased wave activity and near shore-normal swells. Use extra caution if visiting the beach this weekend and always heed the advice of lifeguards. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.