Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off of the Carolina coast will move northeast tonight. A frontal boundary then stalls over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday, with a cold frontal passage Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... The tricky ptype forecast continues this afternoon at least across the NW. At this point, it is mostly a rain or freezing rain event as temps have struggled to rise today across the Piedmont in the NE flow. In fact, temps have held steady around 31 with a dew point around 29 all day in the NW piedmont. Latest HRRR and RAP suggest that temps will not really rise until later this evening with NE flow continuing. As such, will opt to hold onto the advisory for Fluvanna/Louisa until 10 pm and Goochland/Cumberland until 7 pm. This should give enough time for the winds to turn SW and temps to rise above freezing in these areas. A few spots may see up to 0.25" storm total of flat ice (although perhaps about 0.10-0.15 radial ice). Otherwise, have allowed all other advisories to expire at 3pm. Caroline County into the northern neck may see another hour or two of freezing rain, but given the wet bulb temps at 32, do not expect any additional impacts. In addition, Dorchester County MD may see another hour or two of sleet in locations, but given that most of the lower MD eastern shore is above freezing, do not expect any additional impacts there either. Otherwise, the precip will continue across the north this evening, slowly moving southward as the night goes on. With temps above freezing, there will not be a ptype issue. In fact, we may see temps rise or at least become steady as the winds gradually shift to the SW ahead of the front. Lows tonight will likely be this evening, with lower 30s NW to upper 40s-near 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Wednesday... The cold frontal boundary will be slow to move through the southern half of the region on Thursday as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft without much to push it southward. Southern stream moisture will continue to stream along the front and allow for rain showers across the mainly southern half of the forecast area. Best chances for precip will be Thu morning but will need to keep chance pops at least for the entire day across the southern 1/3-1/2 of the forecast area. Highs most areas in the mid 50s-lower 60s. Warmest areas may be northwest where the sun comes out by afternoon. The front finally pushes south of the area by Thu evening. Should stay mostly dry Thu evening however another wave is forecast to move into the area causing an increased chance of rain mainly west overnight despite the high pressure ridge at the sfc. The surface ridge actually tries to re-enforce itself on Friday, but in the meantime a better baroclinic zone develops at 850mb due to the amplifying system over the plains. Will therefore need to continue with high chance or even likely pops across much of the region Friday (especially in the afternoon), quickly tapering to dry conditions across the MD eastern shore as that region will remain significantly in the dry air. The baroclinic boundary has a rough time moving northward Friday night due to the strong high to the north, however it finally returns north as a warm front Saturday with widespread rain across the area for much of the day Saturday. With much of the area being south of the front Friday, it will remain cooler than average. Generally in the 40s on Friday. Saturday will end up seeing a gradient of temps across the region with lower 40s NW to mid 50s SE as this region may try to break out in the afternoon as the front lifts northward. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... Potent upper shortwave (coupled w/ deepening sfc low pressure) is progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest Sat night. This will allow the warm front to move N of the region Sat night, breaking down the CAD/wedge pattern in place during the day on Sat. As the warm front lifts N, the main area of steady rain will lift N/NE of the region. However, numerous showers are likely across the N/NW, while areas S of I-64/E of I-95 will see isolated-scattered showers through the night. Temperatures will slowly rise Sat night (forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the low 50s over the NW Piedmont to around 60 over SE VA/NE NC) as winds veer to the S then SW behind the front. Shower chances continue through 18z Sun before the trailing cold front crosses the region as the aforementioned sfc low tracks into SE Canada. Expect temperatures to warm up quickly during the day on Sun w/ SW-W winds before low-level CAA overtakes the region. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s in most areas (except for mid-upper 60s on the Ern Shore). Upper 70s are possible in SE VA/NE NC. Flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week, leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our area). Drier (but still around average) Mon/Mon night as sfc high pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry/seasonable on Tue as high pressure moves offshore. Our next chance of rain is Tue night-Wed, as low pressure and an associated cold front approach the region. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-upper 50s in most areas (except for low 50s on the Ern Shore). Lows mainly in the upper 20s- low 30s Mon night w/ highs rising into the upper 40s on the Ern Shore/low-mid 50s elsewhere on Tue. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s N/NW to the low 40s SE. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure center has moved off the southern New England coast this afternoon, however, wedge remain over the VA Piedmont. All sites have transitioned to -RA. IFR/LIFR will conditions will continue through the overnight Wed night. CIGs will be 300-700 ft with visibility 2-5 sm. A weak low pressure will move across the area tonight, winds will remain light and switch from NE to SW by Thur morning. Rain showers will remain for RIC/SBY/ECG/PHF through the day tomorrow. Conditions should improve to MVFR late Thur morning. High pressure builds N of the region Thursday night into Friday. However, moisture will continue to spread over the region with clouds and a minimal chc of light rain continuing. Low pressure, and more rain and flight restrictions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A cold front crosses the region Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EST Wednesday... Sfc hi pres sits from near the mid-Atlantic coast nwd to far SE Canada attm...w/ complex lo pres taking shape invof lower MS Valley. Primary lo pres expected to track NNE to the Great Lakes today...pulling a frontal boundary nwd from the SE states. A weak secondary area of lo pres will develop along that boundary over the coastal Carolinas this afternoon...then track through the tidewater of SE and E VA late this afternoon/evening before a cold front from the WNW enters the local waters during Thu. ENE winds starting out from 5-15 kt...are slow to increase this morning into this afternoon as sfc hi pres drifts out over the ocean and ahead of the weak sfc lo pres approaching from the SSW. Models showing only moderate speed increases over most of the waters...w/ the highest speeds anticipated invof the lower Bay...on the sound and over the ocean by late today/this evening. Have made a few adjustments to the SCAs...confining them to the hi prob areas list in previous sentence. Winds become SSW tonight then WSW Thu (at generally diminished speeds)...w/ SCAs to eventually be confined to the nrn ocean (Thu) due to seas near 5 ft. Hi pres builds into the region late Thu into Fri before another system approaches the region late Fri into Sat. A stronger cold front likely impacts the region by the second half of the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ021. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-509-510. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ064-069-075>078-511-512-515>517-519-521-522. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ061- 062. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ631- 632-634-636-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...CP MARINE...AJB/ALB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.