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530
FXUS61 KAKQ 090044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
844 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather moves in today with milder temperatures
returning by mid week. There is no chance of rain until next weekend
at the earliest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 845 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Near record low temperatures possible Monday morning for some
  locations.

1020 mb high pressure nudges into the area tonight, leading to
a period of calm winds, clear skies, and ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Late-day visible satellite imagery did show
some high-altitude smoke pushing ESE into nrn parts of the FA
in the WSW flow aloft (on the back side of a trough over the
eastern CONUS). Little impact expected from this other than a
slight haze and perhaps a vibrant morning sunrise. Regarding
temperatures, lows tonight drop into the mid-upper 40s for most
inland locations, with 50s along the immediate coast. Cannot
completely rule out a reading or two in the upper 30s
(especially in Louisa County), as suggested by the MAV, but
think the floor is around ~40 F. Record lows are likely to be
challenged at SBY, with a lower chance at RIC and ECG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cool Monday with near record low temperatures possible for
  some locations.

-Mild weather returns Tuesday.

The strong trough that brought the area cooler temperatures will
gradually move of to the east by Monday afternoon/evening. This
will allow portions of a ridge to build in by Tuesday. As the
surface high pressure remains over the area and clear skies
remain in place expect a big diurnal change in temperatures from
monday morning into monday afternoon. Temperatures will rise
roughly 30-35 degrees by Monday afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s (possibly lower 80s in the urban areas). As the
surface high continues to dominate the weather pattern across
the CWA temperatures and dew points will slowly rise by Tuesday.
Highs in the lower to middle 80s and dew points only moving
back into the middle 50s. Wednesday will be a repeat of tuesday
with highs peaking again in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Dry weather continues through at least late week.

- Unsettled weather may return by next weekend.

Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the Midwest into Canada through
the week before moving E next weekend. At the surface, high pressure
continues to dominate the local weather pattern through late week
before gradually lifting NE from late week into the weekend.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche moves N
across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Ensemble
guidance stills suggests this system continues to lift NE into
the MS Valley by late week with some guidance suggesting another
weak area of low pressure may develop off the Southeast coast
this weekend. The area in the gulf will need to be closely
monitored in the coming days as it`s strength and track will
have an impact with respect to rain chances for the local area.
Model guidance continues to vary on when or if the area could
see some precipitation. Some models have even now suggested that
the chances of precipitation could occur through the weekend.
For now, kept NBM PoPs which have a slight chance for a few
showers across S portions of the FA on Fri with PoPs spreading
farther inland Sat into Sun (15- 30% PoPs) and 15-20% into
Monday morning. Otherwise, dry and seasonal through late week
with highs in the low-mid 80s through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Quiet flying conditions and VFR expected overnight and all of
Monday at all terminals. Primarily SKC though there is some
high- altitude smoke moving in from the W/NW as of 00z. Light
winds tonight become 5-8 kt Monday aftn, with a SW/WSW wind
direction at SBY and RIC and a E/SE wind direction at PHF, ORF,
and ECG.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue into early next week as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Marine conditions continue to improve this evening. Benign
 conditions prevail through at least mid week with high pressure
 in control.

-Moderate rip current risk tomorrow for all area beaches

Conditions are quickly improving this afternoon as a large area of
strong high pressure gradually builds toward local waters from the
W. N/NW winds are now down to 5-10kt as of latest obs. Seas are
improving as well with most of the coastal waters showing 2-4ft. The
NC waters are a little slower, showing 4-5ft. Will allow the
remaining SCAs to expire as planned later this afternoon. High
pressure will remain in control through at least mid week, slowly
sliding east and offshore. During this period, expect benign
conditions to prevail. Wind direction will vary through mid week as
the high repositions. Speeds will be 5-10kt. Seas will be 2-3ft from
tonight until late in the week. Waves will be around 1ft (1-2ft in
mouth of the bay). While there is some uncertainty regarding the
forecast late in the week and into the weekend, breezy onshore winds
and increasing seas seems likely at least as a remnant low out of
the Gulf interacts with high pressure to the NE.

There is a moderate rip current risk for all area beaches tomorrow.
Low rip current risk likely returns Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temps:

         9/9
RIC    47/1986
ORF    53/1951
SBY    47/1986
ECG    52/1951

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET/RMM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...