Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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761
FXUS61 KBGM 172336
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
736 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
evening, bringing an end to the showers and thunderstorms, and
relief from the heat and humidity. High pressure behind the
front will keep dry weather in the area Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface cold front is pushing southeast through Northeast PA
and southeast NY early this evening.  A weak broken line of
showers is along it. Instability and shear is marginal. The
airmass ahead of it has been worked over with a large area of
showers which had thunderstorms leading it. The broken line of
showers and potential thunder will continue to move across
Luzerne and Lackawanna counties through about 8PM. With the
early evening update, we did adjust the pops and QPF based on
the current radar.

Behind the front low and mid clouds are isolated. Dewpoints are
dropping from around 70 into the 50s. This evening the front
will move southeast of the area leaving a much less humid and
cooler airmass for the rest of the near term. Temperatures will
fall into the mid and upper 50s. Mainly clear skies will move in
the rest of the this afternoon and evening, then continue
through Wednesday night. Cold and dry advection will be the rule
tonight and Wednesday with a northwest low level flow and an
upper level trough. Wednesday highs will be mostly in the 70s
which is slightly below average. Wednesday night will be even
cooler with lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s.

Valley fog will be patchy late tonight due to decent mixing and
dry advection. Wednesday night will have more fog with much
lighter winds. Most of the river valley fog will be over south
central NY and NEPA. High pressure will be centered over the
Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region on Thursday and slowly
depart the region Thursday night. Winds will be light with the
high pressure overhead with another sunny day with highs around
80. Lows Thursday night will warm slightly up into the mid 50`s
on average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On the backside of the high, warm air advection with southerly
winds will bring in moisture into the region. The high pressure
will hang on enough to keep us dry through Saturday. High
temperatures will warm into the 80`s for Friday and Saturday
with warmer lows in the 60`s.

The overall mid-level setup is still the same as it has looked
the last few days. A trough will dig into the Ohio Valley with
a low pressure tracking up the east coast. Interactions of these
features are still uncertain. Showers from both of these will
likely overspread the area Sunday before becoming more
scattered for Monday and Tuesday. Some instability adds
thunderstorm chance for Monday and Tuesday as well. Heavy
rainfall is still the main concern with moisture advection off
the gulf and the Atlantic into our region. Went several degrees
below model guidance on Sunday with highs given clouds and the
likelihood for showers keeping them in the 70`s. Highs should
rebound into the 80`s Monday and Tuesday with lows each night in
this period in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last remaining showers are clearing out of KAVP at this
time. Overnight, VFR conditions and light winds will persist at
our terminals.

Clear skies and northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are
forecast for Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions
possible due to valley fog each morning, especially at ELM.

Late Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DJP



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