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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231934
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
234 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0133 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

Today through Tomorrow.

The surface low has begun to lift through northwestern Georgia, and
most of the rain has gone with it. Some scattered showers are
lingering across our northeastern counties. This activity should
also continue to drift further out of the area with time. Weak
subsidence behind the low and drier air aloft may help to limit any
other synoptic scale rain chances for today. However, a convective
boundary is quickly moving inland across south Alabama. This may
become the best focus for additional showers or thunderstorms,
mainly across our southern counties later this afternoon. This
activity should begin to wane this evening with a brief lull
expected overnight.

Around 1 to 2 inches of rain fell across the area this morning. With
saturated conditions, short term models are indicating fog
development across the northern half of the area after midnight, and
a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. A stalled front to our south
will begin lifting northward early tomorrow in response to a
deepening trough over the Central Plains. This should encourage
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning early
across the south and expanding northward during the day. This may
limit surface heating, so went a little lower on the highs for
tomorrow, but most areas should still reach the 80s.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0211 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

Wednesday through Sunday.

An unsettled and wet weather pattern will continue through the
midweek period, as the upper level trough continues to dig into
Plains states. Ample Gulf moisture, along with large scale lift
provided by the advancing trough and associated surface cold
front, will keep rain chances high during the Wednesday and
Thursday period. Will need to continue watching for the
possibility of severe storms and heavy rain potential. Won`t
change anything to our Outlook at this point, but will also note
that it appears that the models (on a whole) have slowed down this
system a bit. If that is the case, then that could bring the best
forcing through our area during the less (for severe) favorable
overnight period.

The upper trough is ultimately forecast to move off to the
northeast. Drier air filtering into Alabama behind the departing
surface front should help to clear things out by the end of the
week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A surface low has begun to move into northwest Georgia and most of
the rain has exited with it. There will be scattered SHRA near
BHM/ASN/ANB for the next few hours. Some additional SHRA may develop
across the south later this afternoon along a stalled front. Best
chance for thunder will be near TOI. Variable cloud cover will
remain across the area with ceilings generally trending higher this
afternoon. We should see prevailing VFR with occasional MVFR
associated with passing showers. Rain briefly ends overnight, and
fog may develop across the north due to the moist surface
conditions. IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings appear likely from 06-
13Z, especially at the northern terminals. Fog will clear after
sunrise and ceilings should begin improving through the late morning
hours. Some additional rain is expected to develop across the south
tomorrow, but greatest coverage will come after this TAF period.

86


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Look for high rain chances over the next few days with a potential
for wetting rainfall through the forecast period. Low ceilings will
be possible each morning as very moist conditions continue near the
surface. 20 ft winds remain from the south to southeast for the
next several days, at 5-10 mph each afternoon. Given the
increases in moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent
for much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  82  65  86  64 /  10  50  30  70  80
Anniston    63  82  66  85  66 /  20  60  30  70  80
Birmingham  65  82  68  86  67 /  10  60  30  80  80
Tuscaloosa  66  83  69  85  67 /  10  60  30  90  90
Calera      66  81  68  85  67 /  20  60  30  80  80
Auburn      66  80  67  84  66 /  30  60  20  70  60
Montgomery  68  83  68  87  67 /  30  70  20  70  70
Troy        67  83  68  87  68 /  40  60  20  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$