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069
FXUS64 KBMX 152350
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
650 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021/
Tonight through Sunday.

Features of Interest.

Broad ridging was positioned over the Southern Plains while
residual troughing aloft was located just offshore of the Mid
Atlantic Coastline.

Surface high pressure extended from the Southern Appalachians
northeast across much of the Mid Atlantic Region while a surface
low was analyzed near the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains.

Tonight.

Lower and middle layer ridging will become centered closer to the
state tonight while surface high pressure moves further northeast
away from the area.

Expect mostly clear skies with some patchy fog near water bodies
toward daybreak Sunday morning. Winds will be light from the
southeast with lows ranging from around 50 northeast to the mid
50s west.

Sunday.

The Mid layer ridge axis will move over the state on Sunday while
surface high pressure remains to the northeast of the area.

Some patchy early morning fog will be possible near water bodies
around sunrise, otherwise expect fair skies through the morning,
becoming partly cloudy towards midday. Winds will become more
southerly from 5-10 mph. Highs will range from around 80 north and
northeast to the mid 80s south and west.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 345 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021/
Sunday night through Friday.

The main extended forecast changes are continuing the drier trend.
The building Eastern Conus upper ridge in the long term will have
more influence on the forecast. However, the drier trend also
necessitated a slightly warmer trend as well for daytime highs.
Any afternoon minor afternoon convection that we do get may incur
thunder as well with daytime heating. Most folks will likely see
no rainfall in the extended thanks to the ridging.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 246 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021/

Monday through Friday.

A weak shortwave trough is expected to approach from the west on
Monday, leading to southerly flow and an increase in moisture
content over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected to our west within this corridor of
enhanced moisture. Some of this activity might reach West Alabama
Monday afternoon into Monday night. However, most of our area
should remain dry due to the presence of a ridge to our east. A
similar pattern will continue for Tuesday through Friday as a
ridge near the Atlantic Coast becomes entrenched, keeping the
greatest moisture content and lift to our west. Rain chances are
currently being held at 30 percent or less for that period.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Surface high pressure will remain centered northeast of the area
while ridging builds in aloft. These features will keep the
atmosphere dry with no precipitation expected. In fact, VFR
conditions will prevail. Once again, some mid and high level
clouds overhead from time to time and a few cumulus during the
afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
gain a southerly component 5-10mph on Sunday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED until further notice at KASN due to ongoing
equipment issues.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions will continue through at Monday afternoon
with southeasterly winds. Minimum relative humidity values through
the weekend should range from 30 to 40 percent. A slow increase
in moisture is expected for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  81  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Anniston    51  82  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  55  83  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  55  85  59  84  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
Calera      53  82  58  82  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      54  81  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  53  84  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        53  83  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$