919
FXUS64 KBMX 231146
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

 - There is a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms containing
   isolated damaging winds and large hail, Sunday night into
   early Monday morning across northern and western portions of
   Central Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

This AM, satellite is indicating a mostly clear sky across AL,
except for a little very thin high cirrus moisture. The surface
ridge we have had of late is weakening and pushing EWD in advance
of our next frontal system. A low pressure system over the Dakotas
and MN will push EWD into the Great Lakes through tonight. As it
does so, it will drag a cold front across the Plains and the MS
River Valley and into C AL tonight. In the upper levels, we are
starting off with zonal flow across the Deep South as a trough
digs over the Dakotas and toward the Great Lakes forming a closed
low with SW flow developing over the Gulf Coast States this
evening in advance of precip moving into C AL.

Today will be dry for most of C AL. Most of the precip should hold
off until after 00z, but a few showers could make it into the far
NW counties as early as 21z. Storms ahead of the front will
develop and move into the far NW 4-5 counties after sunset, but
initially be a tad slow making progress into the rest of C AL.
Storms will slowly progress across the NW half of the area through
the evening and into the late night hours. Current severe
thinking remains generally the same. Only made a few tweaks to
timing and extending the severe threat of both the slight and
marginal area a little further SE with possibly some elevated
instability in the SE extent of the area. Thus also went with a
slightly later end time frame for severe potential in the SE part
extension of the marginal. Now the overall severe timing is 8 PM
CDT in the NW to 4 AM CDT in the SE. There will be enough bulk
shear, enhancement with an upper jet, and forcing with the front
for severe winds and hail with storms ahead of the front. While
the tornado threat is not zero, it is low. So, we will forgo a
mention at this time. Drier air quickly moves into the area behind
this system with clouds clearing during Monday from NW to SE.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

Dry conditions are expected Monday night through Thursday due to
northwesterly flow at 500 mb. A brief cool down is expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as a dry front moves through the
region. Residual dry air will linger into Friday as the pattern
transitions to a south/southwest flow regime. Moisture return will
increase on Saturday ahead of a shortwave ejecting toward the
Mississippi Valley, perhaps leading to showers and thunderstorms
in our area on Saturday afternoon and evening.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

VFR TAFs are expected for the first half of the 24 hour forecast.
Light/variable to near calm winds currently will give way to SRLY
then SWRLY winds during the day as a weakening surface ridge
pushes E ahead of a front. Gradients will tighten with some gusts
possible during the afternoon. SHRA mention starts at 03z for all
but MGM as system gets closer to C AL. Also added a TS mention
for BHM/TCL being closest to the front during that time frame.
In the latter part of the forecast, added a SHRA mention for MGM
after 06z as the system progresses. Also, some MVFR conditions
are possible with and behind the line of storms.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger is expected to be elevated this afternoon with minimum
RH values of 25 to 30 across the eastern half of Alabama. Higher
dewpoints across the western part of the state will keep RH
values from dropping as much. 20 foot winds will increase to 10
to 15 mph and become gusty late this morning into the afternoon.
Moisture will continue to increase tonight as a front and
associated showers and storms move from northwest to southeast
overnight. Behind the front RH levels will drop to 25-30 percent
Monday afternoon across the northern half of Alabama as winds
shift to the northwest. The dry airmass will overspread the entire
area on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  53  70  41 /   0 100  10   0
Anniston    77  54  71  44 /   0  90  20   0
Birmingham  78  56  71  47 /   0 100  10   0
Tuscaloosa  79  56  73  46 /   0 100  10   0
Calera      77  56  71  47 /   0  90  20   0
Auburn      77  55  71  48 /   0  80  50   0
Montgomery  80  58  75  49 /   0  80  50   0
Troy        79  56  73  49 /   0  60  60   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08