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000
FXUS64 KBMX 062128
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
328 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1144 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021/
Through Sunday.

The upper level shortwave continues to push off to the east of
Central Alabama as we approach midday. A very dry airmass
continues to advect southward with most locations now observing
mostly sunny skies except for a few spots in far east and
southeast counties. Dewpoints have been lowered this afternoon
across the northern half of Central Alabama based on latest
observation trends. The drier airmass will also allow temps to
warm a little quicker as well despite the cooler northerly flow at
the surface. High temps have been bumped up a few degrees, with
the biggest increase across the southeast counties, where they
could reach close to 70 degrees in a few spots. Most other
locations will top out in the low to mid 60s later this afternoon.

Clear skies and fairly calm winds will allow for good radiational
cooling overnight tonight. Although our frost/freeze program for
the spring doesn`t officially start until March 15th, we`ll likely
have freezing temps in the north and widespread frost elsewhere. A
lot of flowers and vegetation are starting to bloom out from the
recent warm stretch we`ve had, so be sure to keep any sensitive
vegetation protected.

The very dry airmass will remain in place across the Southeast
through Sunday, and have kept temps on the higher side of the
guidance in the mid and upper 60s across the board.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 327 PM CST Sat Mar 06 2021/
Monday through Friday.

No major changes were made to the extended with no mentioned rain
chances through Thursday and only low chances on Friday across the
north. A warming trend will continue through the extended with no
frontal passages expected. Clouds do return Tuesday into Wednesday
as ridging weakens and onshore flow returns through the end of the
period.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 316 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021/
Monday through Friday.

Warming trend expected for the upcoming week.

The center of a high pressures system will build across the Gulf
States and be situated over Central AL Monday into Tuesday. This
will lead to clear skies and plenty of sunshine, so while morning
low temps will be in the upper 30s to 40s, highs will reach into the
upper 60s to 70s.

The surface high shifts eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough
begins to dig southward along the Pacific Coast. We could see a
general increase in cloud cover as mid-level moisture begins to
build into the region due to southerly flow from the high to our
east. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer for the second half
of the week and rain chances will be limited. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday could reach into the low 80s, which is well
above normal, but should remain below record values based on current
forecast. The trough to our west develops a cut-off low, which
models continue to struggle with, so I`ve held off on including any
significant rain chances through the end of the week. Based largely
on ensemble data, I`ve included 15-20% chance for rain on Friday,
but this will likely change based on the evolution and timing of the
trough.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast
period as skies become clear if they haven`t already. Northerly
surface winds around 10 knots will continue through the afternoon
then become light overnight tonight.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An extended period of dry weather expected this weekend through
early next week. Min RHs Sunday and Monday afternoons are forecast
to be in the low 20% range; however, if sufficient mixing occurs
or if temperatures even a few degrees above what`s forecast, the
RHs could be in the 15-20% range. However, KBDI`s are below 300
with 20 foot winds 7 mph or less. Gradual increase in moisture is
expected Tuesday through Friday as we see more of a southerly
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  64  31  69  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    31  65  33  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  33  66  36  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  34  67  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      33  65  36  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      35  63  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  37  66  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        34  68  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

56/08/25