Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 100347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023

Temperatures mainly in the 60s late this evening over Central
Alabama. A few mid and upper level clouds will drift by from time
to time overnight. Not seeing any visibility restrictions on the
latest obs, so will hold will no mention of fog or haze at this
time. Additionally, drier surface air tries to work into the area
from the northeast. Overall, no major changes but did adjust
temperatures and dew points for local trends.


Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023


The upper low over New England will move a bit further northeast
overnight while the associated trough axis moves east, extending
from over the Northeast south to over Central Florida. Broad
ridging will continue to build over the Southern and Central
Plains. Surface high pressure will migrate southeast, becoming
centered across the Carolinas late tonight while lower pressure
will be found across the Central and Southern Plains. The
stationary front to our south will persist along the Northern Gulf
of Mexico.

Expect mostly clear skies for all but the far south tonight,
where a few lingering evening showers and perhaps a stray storm
will remain possible. There may be some brief patchy fog far
southeast before daybreak on Saturday as well. Winds will become
more from the northeast to east with speeds from 2-4 mph. Lows
will range from the mid 50s far east and northeast to readings in
the mid 60s southwest.


The flow pattern aloft will become more zonal in nature on
Saturday as the upper low moves further northeast of New England
while the ridging flattens over the Southern Plains. A shortwave
trough will move east over the area during the afternoon hours.
The result will be a developing southerly flow in the low to mid
levels which will support the stationary front to our south
returning north as a warm front as it moves into our southwest
counties toward midday.

Look for some increase in clouds through the day from the
southwest with isolated showers and some thunderstorm activity
most likely across the southwest counties. This activity will
gradually expand a bit more to the north and east into our eastern
and central counties later in the day. Winds will become from the
south with speeds from 5-10 mph. Highs will range from upper 80s
northeast to the low 90s south.



(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023

Only minor tweaks were made to the extended with a rather active
period. The exception will be a small somewhat break on Mon night
into part of Tuesday behind a surface front. Flow turns back
around quickly with moisture returning into the area for mid week.
The best chances for convection will be Sunday into Monday. Sunday
will hold increased overall moisture with a favorable SRLY flow.
An upper trough will be present with several disturbances to move
through ahead of frontal system on Monday, some of which could
come from an organized convective system in the W/NW flow late
Sunday into Sunday night.


Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023

A fairly active and unsettled pattern is appearing likely for the
long-term forecast period. Latest medium-range guidance remains
suggestive of a series of disturbances to pass across the region
atop an associated surface front, which will meander in a west-to-
east oriented position somewhere across the state of Alabama Mon
through Thu. The combination of favorable boundary layer moisture
moisture, diurnal instability, and increasing mid to upper-level
flow will lead to periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout
next week. Given the forecast pattern and expected perturbations
aloft, there will be opportunities for strong to severe
thunderstorms, as well as locally heavy rainfall. However,
predictability for each day`s threats is low at this forecast
range, particulary for Days 4-8. There will be changes in
guidance, and in most likelihood, mesoscale convective
considerations to account for each day.

Nonetheless, the long-term period begins Sun, and this will
feature the introductory system set to bring convection to Central
Alabama. First, southerly low-level flow is forecast to
reestablish which will allow for favorable moisture and
instability to return to Central Alabama. This notion would at
least support typical isolated diurnal convection, but flow aloft
will start to increase with the approach of a shortwave Sun
morning. Latest operational guidance has the trough axis near I-65
by early Sun afternoon, and this tends to suggest better coverage
will be east. `Chance` to `likely` PoPs have been maintained in
the forecast. Currently the perturbation aloft is progged to be in
Georgia by Sun evening, though a more substantial disturbance is
expected to rotate from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the
Tennessee Valley Sun evening into Sun night. This will likely
coincide with more organized convection moving southeast along &
ahead of an associated front, thus suggesting two opportunities
for convection for the area Sun. Given these considerations,
there`s increasing confidence that a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be in play, even with the second round of
storms (Sun evening into Sun night) which should be a more cold
pool aggregated MCS. The HWO will be updated, and we`ll get more
details soon.

Flow aloft will become more west-northwesterly on Mon with the
aforementioned front passing through. The front is currently
progged to drape somewhere across the south, possibly near the
I-10 corridor. Thus, Mon and Tue should remain fairly behaved.
However, the presence of 40-50 kts of westerly 500 mb flow is
expected to remain across the Southeast as the stalled front moves
back north Tue night into Wed. Subsequent disturbances moving
atop the front will lead to additional periods of showers and
thunderstorms in the region with the prospect for strong storms
and locally heavy rainfall. As mentioned before, it`s too early to
iron out each day`s threats, but something to certainly keep in
mind for now.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023

At this time, VFR conditions have been forecast for all terminals.
There will be some changes as we go through the next 24 hours.
First off, there may be some haze lingering around the area. How
it affects the visibility at any particular terminal is the
challenge. Overall, the surface layer is drier than yesterday with
surface dew points in the 50s and 60s. Held out mention for now
and will monitor this possibility through the evening. Overnight,
a few mid and upper level clouds may drift by from time to time
with light and variable winds. On Saturday, a warm front will
move northward to near BHM by periods end. Clouds will be on the
increase especially after 18z. Held any clouds to VFR this cycle.
Rain chances will also increase and will continue increasing into
Sunday. May need to add PROB30 for Saturday at some point. Winds
will become south to southwest around 6kts on Saturday afternoon.




Slightly better rain chances return across the southwest Saturday
afternoon. More area wide moisture increases on Sunday. This will
foster more widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms with
southerly to southwesterly winds up to 10 mph.


Gadsden     57  88  65  86 /   0  10  20  90
Anniston    59  88  67  85 /   0  10  20  80
Birmingham  64  91  69  88 /   0  20  20  80
Tuscaloosa  65  91  68  88 /   0  30  30  70
Calera      62  89  68  87 /   0  20  30  80
Auburn      63  87  68  83 /   0  20  20  80
Montgomery  65  92  69  89 /  10  30  30  80
Troy        65  90  69  88 /  10  30  30  70




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