Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
288 FXUS64 KBRO 131759 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1159 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures expected through next week. - A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday evening bringing drier air this weekend and into next week. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns. - There is a small but non-zero chance that winds could reach Wind Advisory conditions tomorrow depending on the strength and timing of the low-level jet. - Marine and beach hazards are expected with the frontal passage. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed tomorrow for the Bay and Gulf waters. Tonight there is a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents, which will increase to a high risk tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the end of next week. Tomorrow, an upper level shortwave is expected to move over Texas, which will bring a weak cold front to Deep South Texas on Saturday night. Prior to the cold front`s arrival, tomorrow`s high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s. The front is expected to slightly cool high temperatures into the mid-80s for a few days before temperatures creep back into the upper 80s/low 90s again by next Tuesday. Low temperatures will cool from the the upper 50s/lower 60s to the low 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Model guidance continues to consistently place thunderstorm risk north of our CWA for Saturday. However, a shower or two cannot be ruled out in very northern portions of the CWA, particularly in Brooks and Kenedy Counties. Short range CAM guidance hints there could be a few isolated showers in this area, but chances are less than 20% and not many places are expected to see any precipitation, if any. There is a low potential (between 5-10% according to DESI guidance) that gusty winds could develop tonight into tomorrow morning that closely approach or reach Wind Advisory Criteria due to the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, models are inconsistent on location, timing, and potential. The HRRR favors gusty winds developing late tonight off the Sierra Madres and impacting the Western Ranchlands, before slowly spreading east to the Central Rio Grande Valley by morning. The RAP shows a LLJ at 850 mb with winds exceeding 45 knots over the Central and Eastern CWA that could mix down to the surface Saturday morning, possibly creating Wind Advisory conditions. The NAM, on the other hand, is overall more conservative than shorter-range CAMs, with wind speeds and gusts remaining well below Wind Advisory Criteria. The NBM is also in more agreement with the NAM. Because of the uncertainty of the timing and strength of the LLJ, along with the low probability of Wind Advisory criteria being met, no wind products will be issued with this forecast package. However, winds are expected to be gusty tomorrow, regardless of strength. Updated model guidance along with real-time evening upper air observations will be monitored to see if any products will be needed at a later time. Dry air is expected behind the front, which will drop minimum relative humidities to the 20-30% range on Sunday and Monday for much of the CWA. The timing of highest winds does not completely line up with the timing of the lowest humidities. However, because fuels are freeze-cured, outdoor burning is still strongly discouraged during times of gusty winds and following the frontal passage because fuels will catch quickly in the dry air. If wind guidance trends slightly upward on wind speeds/gusts (especially on Sunday when there is northwesterly flow and humidities are at their lowest), Fire Danger products could be needed. Due to elevated winds and waves from tomorrow`s frontal passage, there is also a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and a high risk tomorrow. Following the weak frontal passage, upper-level ridging with semi-zonal flow is expected for the region next week, which will keep the weather warm and dry through the end of the week. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with winds shifting from the north-northeast on Sunday and Monday back to the east-southeast by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected at all airports through at least 06z. Between 06z-08z, cloud cover is expected to increase and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR at all airports. Winds are also expected to become more gusty around this time as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Marine conditions are expected to start deteriorating tonight, with SCEC conditions developing both on the Bay and on the Gulf Waters. A Small Craft Advisory is also going to be likely needed for tomorrow, but additional guidance is still needed to determine exact timing. Conditions should improve Sunday evening into Monday and should stay favorable for the early part of the week. By Wednesday/Thursday, SCEC conditions could return due to a tightening pressure gradient, but should improve again by Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 68 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 85 64 86 58 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 87 69 91 63 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 66 91 58 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 75 64 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 65 82 60 / 0 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...55-MM