456
FXUS64 KBRO 161132 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Dry weather will prevail through the period with a nearly zonal 500
mb flow in place overhead. At the surface, high pressure across Deep
South Texas today will slide eastward tonight into Monday. Highs
today and Monday will be in the 80s, except near the coast, which is
well above normal. Lows tonight are expected to be near normal due
to clear skies, light winds, and the presence of the dry air. Light
winds today and tonight will increase on Monday as the pressure
gradient strengthens.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a
Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Wind will be the primary concern during this portion of the total
forecast. Model guidance suggests that strong winds will occur
across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday
and into Tuesday night due to an enhanced pressure gradient. For
wildfire and marine concerns related to the wind, please see the
Fire Weather and Marine sections, respectively, below. Additionally,
the wind strength suggested by model guidance indicate that a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Otherwise, the only other notable
weather event during the long term portion of the forecast will be
the passage of a cold front on Wednesday, which will serve to
briefly lower high temperatures for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early
this morning. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours
with high pressure in control. Light northwest winds this morning
will increase to around 10 knots and gradually veer to the
northeast this afternoon. Southeast winds are expected to return
this evening into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Buoy 42020 reported west-northwest winds around 4 knots gusting
to around 6 knots at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. Generally favorable
conditions are expected through the period with high pressure in
control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will
prevail through Monday. The pressure gradient will increase
slightly on Monday as high pressure moves farther eastward across
the Gulf. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible
on the Laguna Madre Monday afternoon.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated along the Lower
Texas Coast Monday night through Tuesday night due to an enhanced
pressure gradient. The passage of a cold front on Wednesday will
briefly improve conditions on that day as the gradient weakens,
but Small Craft Advisory will return for Wednesday night through
Thursday night as winds increase and seas build in the wake of the
front. Improved marine conditions are forecast for Friday and
Saturday, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be
entirely ruled out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Fuels remain cured and dry to critically dry across the region.
Very low relative humidity will prevail across Deep South Texas
again today. However, the 20-foot winds are expected to between 5
to 10 knots across much of the area this afternoon. Therefore,
will hold off on issuing a Fire Danger Statement for today.
relative humidity values begin to recover on Monday as
southeasterly flow increases. The 20-foot level wind speeds are
forecast to remain short or just short of Red Flag criteria for
Monday.

(Tuesday through Tuesday Night)
Model guidance suggests that strong winds will occur across much
of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday and into
Tuesday night due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Winds at the
20-foot level, combined with relative humidity percentages, will
easily support a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement on that day.
However, given the abundance of cured and critically dry fuels
within the region, a Red Flag Warning might not be the worst
decision, as the strength of the wind at the surface will easily
compensate for higher-than-established-criteria relative humidity
percentages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  57  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               83  52  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 87  57  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         85  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  62  74  65 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  56  80  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC