283
FXUS63 KDVN 150538
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern returns Sunday and ramps up through the middle of
  next week with daily chances of storms, and the potential for
  severe weather especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

In the very near term (late afternoon/evening) it appears that the
favored convective spawning grounds lies mainly to our north/west
through the heart of Iowa (and far SE Minnesota) within an axis of
deeper low level moisture (surface dew points upper 60s/lower 70s)
and instability (SB/MLCAPE 1500-2500 j/kg), particularly north of I-80
in close proximity to a frontal zone. Corfidi vectors are weak to
the south, and orientation of the moisture and instability axis also
point toward a south to even possibly southwestward translation with
the CAPE eating activity, and thus this scattered activity is
anticipated to largely stay west of the service area this evening.
However, will keep some small PoPs in across portions of eastern Iowa
to account for low potential for development further east toward the
Mississippi River to our north and drifting southward along the moisture
and instability gradients.

Otherwise, a better chance (30-60%) of showers and storms appears to
be on tap late tonight into Sunday AM, particularly for areas north/
west of the Quad Cities, as a shortwave currently over the Dakotas dives
southeastward around the periphery of a Southwest heat dome. Timing
during diurnal minimum and throughout the morning would lend to a rather
low threat for severe weather, but some gusty winds and possibly small
hail can`t be ruled out. Additional widely scattered diurnally driven
convection is possible by mid to late Sunday afternoon, particularly near
any residual boundary(ies) left over from morning activity. All in all
we`re not looking at all day type rains to where any outdoor plans with
dad have to be cancelled, but just know they could be delayed for some
dodging rain drops and especially with any lightning - when thunder roars
head indoors! Aside from the rain chances it looks to be a typical June
warm and humid day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Classic summertime MCS pattern is taking shape for a good portion of
next week. This will feature a Bermuda high entrenched off the
Southeast coast and southerly flow on the western periphery leading
to increasing Gulf moisture while semi-zonal to W/SW flow aloft
will shuttle periodic disturbances across the region on the southern
periphery of the polar jet traversing the northern international
border. This will provide support for near daily storm chances via
coinciding diurnal instability, with the potential for a few organized
storm complexes and strong to severe storms. Such specifics of timing,
location, and hazards in this pattern are more difficult to ascertain
beyond 24 hours, as typically in this pattern the early day remnants
will impact these details. With that being said it would seem given
the increase in moisture (PWATs climbing over 1.5 to 2 inches) that
hail would be a lower threat and that wind and localized heavy rain/
flash flooding would be the primary threats. This threat appears to
crescendo around the mid-week timeframe when guidance shows a more
amplified shortwave trough shifting from the Rockies through the Midwest.
Temperatures and humidity will also be building ahead of mid-week with
highs forecast to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures will be lower confidence around mid-week when
the storm chances look to peak, as boundaries, storm coverage and cloud
cover will play a pivotal role.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Main concern for the next 24 hours will be the spotty nature of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will affect CID shortly. After
this, conditions remain through the period, with better chances
around daybreak and again this afternoon for more showers and
storms. These storms could cause some erratic winds, but for
most TAF sites, lightning will be the main concern. The
residence time of these storms could be longer than normal,
suggesting a need for for additional fuel or alternate landing
sites when and if additional storms form.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Gibbs