Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 190554
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1254 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Weak low pressure is gradually filling and moving away from the area
this afternoon. Several areas of stratus are slowly thinning, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s northeast to mid 70s where
sun has been able to shine. The remainder of the day should see
increasing sun, lower humidity, and a beautiful evening is on it`s
way.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Thinning clouds and light winds will provide a very pleasant
evening, in the lower 70s to mid 60s.  Dry weather is certain as the
storm system moves away.

Thursday, with winds shifting to the south ahead of the next storm
system, we`ll see warming into the 80s in all locations. Dewpoints
will climb back to the lower 60s, so it`s a good day to turn the AC
back on.

The upcoming cold front will hold northwest of the area through late
afternoon, so I plan on a dry forecast as any storms will be forming
along that front well to the north during the afternoon.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Key Message:

1) End of the week and into the weekend remain active, with a few
chances for precipitation. While active, plenty of dry periods will
still result.

2) Temperatures at the end of the week are forecast to be near
average, becoming cool and below average on the weekend.

Thursday Night/Friday...

Weak upper wave pushes through our area, dragging a cold front
through the region. While much of the energy with this system is
situated north of our area, we still have a severe threat. This
severe threat will result by the strong LLJ that sets up and pumps
strong warm advection into the airmass directly ahead of the front.
Along with this, an enhanced shear profile will also aid in
generating some strong to severe storms. Storms are expected to be
in a line as they push through our area late on Thursday night. So,
with this round of storms, we are looking at damaging wind as the
primary threat. Earlier in the night though (if storms manage to
reach our area a little earlier, but this is a low chance), the low
level shear profiles would favor the potential for mesovortex
generation along the leading edge of the line of storms. Once again,
high moisture content in the airmass will allow for heavy rainfall
in thunderstorms too. The SPC has much of eastern Iowa highlighted
in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Severe weather overnight.

Round two may come through Friday afternoon/evening, but there are
many discrepancies amongst guidance. This is a very similar set up
to Thursday night, as we are dealing with the same front and same
LLJ. The difference comes in with the timing of frontal passage. A
slower passage will allow storms to fire up in our area (along
Mississippi River and east), impacting a larger area, while a
quicker front will keep the threat to our far east. Wherever this
line fires, all severe threats can be possible. A Slight Risk (level
2/5) for severe weather has been issued for areas along and east of
the Mississippi River. Thus, these are the areas that should stay up
to date on the forecast.

Weekend...

Cold front that came through Friday is set to stall out southeast of
the area, which will serve as a continuous source of precipitation
from some in our southeast. Another weak wave pushes through the
area, generally set to ride along the front and eventually kick it
out of the region. With this, we can see more widespread rain
showers throughout the area on Saturday. As we will be on the cool
side of things, little to no instability will be in place. Thus,
thunderstorm chances will be very low. More so looking at just rain.
High pressure moves in Saturday night and into Sunday. This will
provide us with calm and cool weather through the remainder of the
weekend. Temperatures are set to be below normal, with some high
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Beyond...

Active pattern looks like it will continue, but much uncertainty
exists amongst guidance on storm placement and timing. Thus, we
will broad brush this and say that there will be more showers and
storms to come next week, but stay tuned for more details as we get
closer. Temperatures look to stay near normal through next week as
well, with a few days that may be below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

VFR conditions are forecast through the period as eastern Iowa TAF
sites remain between two storms systems. Winds will become light
and variable with some aviation fog possible but confidence is
low in it impacting any one terminal. Winds will be on the
increase after 15 UTC on Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 30
knots possible into the early evening. Gusts will decrease after
00 UTC on Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Cousins


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