


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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283 FXUS63 KDVN 150538 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern returns Sunday and ramps up through the middle of next week with daily chances of storms, and the potential for severe weather especially Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 In the very near term (late afternoon/evening) it appears that the favored convective spawning grounds lies mainly to our north/west through the heart of Iowa (and far SE Minnesota) within an axis of deeper low level moisture (surface dew points upper 60s/lower 70s) and instability (SB/MLCAPE 1500-2500 j/kg), particularly north of I-80 in close proximity to a frontal zone. Corfidi vectors are weak to the south, and orientation of the moisture and instability axis also point toward a south to even possibly southwestward translation with the CAPE eating activity, and thus this scattered activity is anticipated to largely stay west of the service area this evening. However, will keep some small PoPs in across portions of eastern Iowa to account for low potential for development further east toward the Mississippi River to our north and drifting southward along the moisture and instability gradients. Otherwise, a better chance (30-60%) of showers and storms appears to be on tap late tonight into Sunday AM, particularly for areas north/ west of the Quad Cities, as a shortwave currently over the Dakotas dives southeastward around the periphery of a Southwest heat dome. Timing during diurnal minimum and throughout the morning would lend to a rather low threat for severe weather, but some gusty winds and possibly small hail can`t be ruled out. Additional widely scattered diurnally driven convection is possible by mid to late Sunday afternoon, particularly near any residual boundary(ies) left over from morning activity. All in all we`re not looking at all day type rains to where any outdoor plans with dad have to be cancelled, but just know they could be delayed for some dodging rain drops and especially with any lightning - when thunder roars head indoors! Aside from the rain chances it looks to be a typical June warm and humid day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Classic summertime MCS pattern is taking shape for a good portion of next week. This will feature a Bermuda high entrenched off the Southeast coast and southerly flow on the western periphery leading to increasing Gulf moisture while semi-zonal to W/SW flow aloft will shuttle periodic disturbances across the region on the southern periphery of the polar jet traversing the northern international border. This will provide support for near daily storm chances via coinciding diurnal instability, with the potential for a few organized storm complexes and strong to severe storms. Such specifics of timing, location, and hazards in this pattern are more difficult to ascertain beyond 24 hours, as typically in this pattern the early day remnants will impact these details. With that being said it would seem given the increase in moisture (PWATs climbing over 1.5 to 2 inches) that hail would be a lower threat and that wind and localized heavy rain/ flash flooding would be the primary threats. This threat appears to crescendo around the mid-week timeframe when guidance shows a more amplified shortwave trough shifting from the Rockies through the Midwest. Temperatures and humidity will also be building ahead of mid-week with highs forecast to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be lower confidence around mid-week when the storm chances look to peak, as boundaries, storm coverage and cloud cover will play a pivotal role. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Main concern for the next 24 hours will be the spotty nature of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will affect CID shortly. After this, conditions remain through the period, with better chances around daybreak and again this afternoon for more showers and storms. These storms could cause some erratic winds, but for most TAF sites, lightning will be the main concern. The residence time of these storms could be longer than normal, suggesting a need for for additional fuel or alternate landing sites when and if additional storms form. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Gibbs