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000
FXUS64 KFWD 061054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to the previous forecast. Some minor
adjustments were made to the expected highs this afternoon,
especially across Central Texas. Similar to yesterday, many
locations west of I-35 will reach the triple digits. Heat index
values will likely be a degree or two above the actual
temperature. With much of the region experiencing heat index
values in the triple digits, make sure to take the necessary
precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.


Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

Much of North and Central Texas will remain precipitation free
given a mid and upper level anticyclonic circulation will inch
closer to North and Central Texas. Overall, large scale subsidence
will be greater than the past several days, reducing
precipitation chances for much of the region.

The caveat to a mostly dry forecast will be a remnant boundary
that continues to bisect our region. This boundary is currently
south of the I-20 corridor and will remain mostly inactive
throughout the day. Having said that, several high-resolution
models do attempt to develop isolated showers along the boundary
around sunrise as it retreats northward; mainly near the I-35
corridor in North Texas. If any precipitation does develop, no
more than a few sprinkles or light rain showers are expected.
Coverage is expected to remain very low, and for that reason, have
capped this mornings precipitation chances at 10%.

Given the increasing upper level height rises, todays expected
high temperatures will be slightly warmer than they were
yesterday, especially across North Texas. Many locations will
likely climb above 100 degrees, with heat index values a few
degrees above the actual temperature. Overnight, expect
precipitation free conditions across the region as low
temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/

/Friday through Next Tuesday/

The theme in the extended forecast will be the return of summer
with hot conditions expected this weekend and into early next
week. At present time, the current forecast remains rain/storm-
free, but there may be a few opportunities for some precipitation
sprinkled throughout the long term period.

On Friday morning a very loosely organized convective complex may
be ongoing across parts of Oklahoma. As it makes an attempt to
progress southward, it should encounter an increasingly hostile
environment and ultimately decay. Current thinking is that this
will occur before convective cells can slip south of the Red
River. I`ll advertise just a 10 PoP along the Red River with an
increase in cloud cover, but it`s quite possible mentionable
weather may be needed in the grids later today if additional hi-
res NWP supports a greater complex cessation than currently
thought. Otherwise, areas across North Texas that benefited from
the dense cloud cover and rain on Wednesday will likely not
escape the heat on Friday as high temperatures climb into the mid
90s. Elsewhere, high temperatures are expected to near the century
mark, especially across the Big Country. The surface pressure
gradient should keep southerly breezes in the 10 to 15 mph range.
There may be a near-elevated fire weather threat west of US HWY
281 on Friday where minimum relative humidity values fall below 30
percent.

Heat index values on Friday afternoon across eastern parts of
Central Texas...including the Brazos Valley will need to be
monitored closely as current values are near advisory levels. Will
defer to next shift for issuance, however, as Saturday looks
slightly less humid. Regardless, heat index values across most of
the forecast area will range between 100 and 104 degrees, so heat
safety precautions should be exercised.

The weekend looks hotter as the 594 decameter high settles in
across the eastern part of the Lone Star State. With large scale
subsidence expected to grip the region, rain chances are less than
10 percent area wide. The surface pressure gradient will still
remain rigid and this should usher in southerly breezes near 15
mph, especially for the western two-thirds of North and Central
Texas. Afternoon relative humidity near or just below 30 percent,
coupled with breezy low level winds may support some fire spread,
particularly where fuels have cured with recent lack of rainfall.
High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to near 101
degrees on Saturday and Sunday.

Early next week will remain hot, but it appears that the mid-
level ridge will start to degrade some on its eastern flank. In
fact, 500mb standardized height anomalies trend toward neutral
values, perhaps suggesting a weaker magnitude of subsidence. This
could allow for the sea-breeze activity to sneak northward along
the underside of the ridge, mainly impacting East Texas and the
Brazos Valley. For now, I`ll introduce a silent 10 PoP with no
weather mention. The GFS remains the wet outlier in the extended
as it really weakens the ridge and places North and Central Texas
within a northwest flow regime. This would open the door for
nocturnal MCS activity. Currently, however, I`ll maintain a rain-
free forecast, but will adjust temperatures downward somewhat as
there should at least be an increase in high level cloudiness
from convection that is more probable to the north of the region.
Still, it will remain hot with temperatures in the mid 90s
areawide.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Weak isentropic ascent enhanced by a frontal boundary south of
the I-20 corridor led to the development of stratus and patchy fog
across portions of North Texas. Although no impacts are expected
at any of the North Texas airports, periodic IFR remains possible
along the Red River through the rest of the morning. Locations
north of the boundary remain under the influence of easterly to
southeasterly winds. South of the boundary, southerly winds
prevail. For the immediate North and Central

This boundary will continue moving northward through the day
today, turning wind direction out of the south across the region
by this afternoon. Winds will remain mainly between 5-10 kts
through the duration of this TAF cycle.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  98  79  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco               100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  75  93  76  95 /  10  10  10   0   0
Denton              97  78  98  78  97 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            97  77  97  78  97 /  10   5   5   0   0
Dallas              98  80  99  81  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             97  76  98  76  98 /   5   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           96  76  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple             100  74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       99  75  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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