Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270615
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight Through Wednesday/

Quite the mild night is in store for much of North and Central
Texas as we come down from the record-breaking heat many
experienced yesterday. The return of low level moisture will be
reflected in our overnight lows, which will range in the low to
mid 60s. An increase in high cloud cover will also contribute to
these mild temperatures, coupled with our continued southerly
flow. Winds will gradually reduce to around 10 to 15 mph before
daybreak Tuesday morning, but this should still be sufficient in
limiting any overnight fog potential. Another stratus intrusion is
in the process of developing across portions of Central and East
Texas, expected to envelop much of the region in low cloud cover
during the early morning hours. These clouds should dissipate as
we move into the early afternoon on Tuesday.

Another warm and well above normal afternoon will follow, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations. Thankfully
we will have high cloud cover through most of the day, limiting
the amount of total insolation. This will mostly prevent any
locations from overachieving on their high temperatures, though it
will still be quite warm with highs expected to be 20 to 25
degrees above seasonal norms. Because of this, an elevated threat
for grass fires will continue into Tuesday afternoon and will be
worth monitoring. It is likely that a Grass Fire Danger Statement
will be issued as a part of the early morning update.

Our attention will then turn to the return of winter as a cold
front, associated with an upper-level trough currently traversing
across the Intermountain West, pushes through during the overnight
hours on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
actually drop slightly below seasonal normals, with highs on
Wednesday in the low to upper 50s. Winds will be quite gusty
during the morning commute as the front moves across North and
Central Texas, gusting to around 25 to 30 mph. This will bring
about a noticeable change to our sensible weather through the mid-
week period. As for rain chances, the front should pass through
mostly dry with any potential for showers remaining quite low due
to the moisture-starved environment it will be working with.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A shortwave trough, currently moving over Oregon, will continue to
dig south as it moves towards the Central Plains through Tuesday.
As it crosses the Continental Divide, a strong cold front will be
shunted south across North and Central Texas overnight into
Wednesday morning. This should generally be a dry FROPA as much of
the region will be moisture-starved, but a shower or two cannot
be ruled out in the far eastern counties after midnight. The
progressive nature of the front will make quick work of any
precipitation that is able to form, bringing anything to an end by
daybreak. Strong post-frontal winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to
35-40 mph are possible during the morning, before decreasing
slightly through the afternoon as high surface pressure begins to
slide into the region.

After the record-breaking start to the week, a blast of much cooler,
below-normal air will dominate Wednesday afternoon. Expect highs to
only peak in the 50s for most, though some along our southern border
(Hearne to Centerville) will rise to 60 degrees. Breezy conditions
through the afternoon will keep wind chills a bit colder than
ambient conditions, generally in the 40s and 50s. While
meteorological spring is on the horizon, keep those jackets handy
for midweek.

A lagging disturbance will meander upstream of the rapidly departing
trough, reaching the Desert Southwest by Wednesday evening.
Increased isentropic ascent atop the colder airmass will allow for
additional rain chances to spread eastward over the day on Thursday
as the disturbance swings through West Texas into North
Texas/Oklahoma. Showers will be the main weather type due to lack of
available instability.  Due to cloudy skies and rain-cooled air,
Thursday afternoon temperatures will once again be cool in the 50s
region-wide.

A warm up is expected to occur once again late this week as clouds
clear out on Friday and southerly flow persists. Well above-normal
temperatures in the 70s and 80s will return by Saturday ahead of our
next storm system. As a shortwave trough barrels towards the Central
Plains over the weekend, warm and moist air advection will begin
in earnest and bring a surge of low clouds to start next week.
Rain chances will begin on Sunday, with storms more likely this
time as model guidance provides much more environmental
instability. We`ll continue to watch the evolution of this system
as we go through this week, with more details forthcoming.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...Low chance for MVFR ceilings through the morning.

VFR conditions will prevail for most TAF sites during the period,
except for Waco which will be contending with MVFR ceilings
starting around 09-10z. A stratus intrusion is in the process of
developing across portions of Central and East Texas, with
ceilings falling through the early morning hours. Breezy southerly
winds will become southwesterly by late Tuesday morning, gusting
as high as 25 knots on Tuesday afternoon.

Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through North and Central
Texas early on Wednesday morning - returning the region to
northerly flow. Future TAF issuances will include this as the
latest model guidance continues to come in.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  89  44  55  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                66  86  50  57  43 /   0   0   5   0   5
Paris               65  82  42  53  37 /   5   5   5   0   0
Denton              64  88  40  54  36 /   0   5   0   0   5
McKinney            66  87  42  54  37 /   0   5   5   0   5
Dallas              68  89  45  56  41 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             66  84  45  55  39 /   0   5   5   0   5
Corsicana           66  84  49  57  42 /   0   0   5   0   5
Temple              65  86  50  58  41 /   0   0   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       61  89  43  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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