Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
038 FXUS64 KFWD 122315 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of heavy rain could result in Flash Flooding tonight through Sunday evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 126 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ /Today and Tomorrow/ There will be a threat for flooding today, tonight and tomorrow across portions of North and Central Texas. A Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow evening as pockets of 4-5 inches of rain will be possible within the watch area. The environment atop North and Central Texas is characterized by anomalously high moisture content that will be tapped into over the next 24-36 hours. Precipitable water content was sampled at 1.9" this morning, placing it above the 90th percentile for July 12th. As a shortwave and weak front inch closer to our region, instability will continue to increase, maxing out near 2000 J/Kg in the next couple of hours. This should lead to a blossoming of thunderstorm activity, especially in North Texas. With weak steering flow in place, environmental shear will remain minimal, minimizing the threat for severe storms. Having said that, a few strong storms capable of gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Heading into the evening hours, the shortwave will continue to slowly shift southeastward with a vorticity max likely across the western Central Texas. Dynamic cooling aloft will likely enhance instability and lead to additional heavy rainfall during the overnight hours. Short-range models continue to advertise localized pockets of 4-5 inches of rain somewhere along and south of I-20 through the overnight period. Confidence in the location of each individual bullseye remains low, however, there was enough confidence to expand the watch eastward across Central Texas. All areas along and west of I-35 should remain vigilant for night-time flooding. By sunrise tomorrow, the shortwave will continue to slowly shift east across North and Central Texas. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be ongoing with much of the region covered in a shroud of clouds. A relative minimum in precipitation coverage is expected tomorrow morning before precipitation coverage increases in the afternoon once again. With additional bouts of heavy rain possible during the afternoon hours, there will continue to be a threat for flash flooding should a storm remain stationary over a single location. With southerly flow Sunday night and troughing just to our west, the potential for showers and isolated storms will remain in place through Sunday night. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 126 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ /Monday Onward/ The potential for rain will linger through the day on Monday as the upper trough begins to drift eastward. By Tuesday, mid-level heights will begin to increase as the ridge across the SE United States expands towards our region. This should limit precipitation chances through the rest of the week. A slight warming trend is expected the latter half of the week as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 90s. Heat index values may approach 105 by next weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ While the D10 airports are in a relative lull in terms of convective activity as of 23z, additional thunderstorm development is in progress to the west along an advancing outflow boundary. New development will be expedited further if this outflow collides with a second stationary boundary draped across the western portion of the Metroplex, in which case fairly widespread TSRA could impact the TAF sites between 01-05z. This may also result in a temporary northwest wind shift for select D10 airports. It is possible that this convection lingers along a W-E axis well into the overnight hours, and perhaps even into Sunday morning. However, its precise placement remains uncertain, and will be dictated by small scale features like additional outflow boundaries. Will maintain VCSH and VCTS through Sunday morning with low confidence in the precise timing of TSRA impacts. For Waco, the next round of thunderstorm chances will hold off until closer to daybreak Sunday, after the ongoing activity nearby dissipates in the next few hours. Areas outside of convection are likely to fill in with MVFR stratus tomorrow morning before these cigs mix out by midday. Late in the morning or early in the afternoon, am expecting most convective activity to shift east/southeast of the TAF sites with the upper trough axis. This should limit convective impacts through most of tomorrow afternoon and evening aside from perhaps a stray lingering shower or two in North Texas. Outside of convective influences, a south wind at 8-12 kts will prevail. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested tonight within the Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 87 73 90 75 / 60 50 30 30 5 Waco 74 88 73 90 74 / 40 50 20 10 0 Paris 72 86 71 88 73 / 70 60 40 40 5 Denton 72 87 72 89 74 / 70 50 40 40 5 McKinney 74 87 73 89 75 / 70 50 40 40 5 Dallas 74 87 73 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 5 Terrell 74 88 73 90 74 / 60 50 30 30 5 Corsicana 75 90 74 93 75 / 60 50 20 20 0 Temple 74 90 73 92 73 / 40 50 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 71 87 71 91 73 / 50 40 40 40 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174. && $$