144
FXUS64 KFWD 151112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire danger will increase again across Central Texas this
  afternoon due to gusty winds and low humidity

- Fire danger will remain elevated to critical through much of
  next week

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
As expected, thunderstorm development occurred along the boundary
hugging the southern fringes of our county warning area as the
upper jet streak began nosing into South Texas. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep layer shear allowed these storms to
quickly become severe with a few reports of hail just outside of
our area. Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes will
continue developing and moving across Central Texas for another
hour or two before pushing off to the east. The West Texas dust,
which has certainly overstayed its welcome at this point, remains
suspended over the region this morning giving the sky a hazy
appearance even before the sun rises. Increasing surface wind
speeds this morning and the onset of mixing should get things
moving though some amount of haziness is likely to linger until
the cold front arrives later today. The main hazard today
continues to be the fire weather threat across portions of Central
Texas as gusty west to northwest winds develop. The forecast below
generally remains on track with only slight adjustments made to
incorporate the latest observations.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through this Weekend/

Boundary layer decoupling and a relaxed pressure gradient in
response to the lifting deep surface low over the Upper Midwest
has allowed wind speeds to fall below 10 kts or ~12 mph tonight.
While this should help limit the potential spread of any ongoing
wildfires and aid in overnight containment efforts, it should be
noted that the diurnal increase of relative humidity has been
remarkably slow with relative humidity still hovering near or
below 20 percent west of the I-35 corridor. Though the lower wind
speeds should mitigate a continued risk for new fire starts
overnight, additional fire initiation and spread cannot be
completely ruled out over the next several hours given the
persistent dry conditions.

The convection that developed along the dryline in our
southeastern-most counties (Robertson, Leon, and Freestone)
earlier this evening has since exited to the east as the dryline
shifted into East Texas. Convective-allowing models show a low
probability of additional isolated convection developing over the
Brazos Valley and East Texas this morning, through 10 AM, as
moisture continues to pool along the stalled surface boundary along
the southern edge of our county warning area. This activity will
develop in response to a shortwave trough working its way across
South Texas. The dynamic cooling aloft associated with the
shortwave will lead to steepening lapse rates within an elevated
moist layer. Most of the precipitation that develops north of the
boundary is likely to evaporate as it falls through a dry sub-
cloud layer, however activity that remains along/ahead of the
dryline/front stands a better chance of reaching the ground.
Additionally, weak mid-level instability will be present so there
will also be the low potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms
(20% chance). The main threats with this activity would be
gusty/erratic winds and lightning strikes that could start new
wildfires.

The dust particles that arrived during yesterdays high wind
event remain suspended over much of North and Central Texas
tonight, causing widespread hazy skies and lowered visibilities.
Unfortunately, the timeline for this dust to settle out remains
difficult to predict given the strong winds aloft and light/calm
winds at the surface. We may not see improvements until either the
winds aloft decrease (less likely) or the front moves through
later today (more likely). Have introduced a mention of haze
across the northwestern half of our area for the next several
hours which may need to be extended during the morning update
based on observation trends.

The lower levels will remain moisture starved today, with
relative humidity quickly dipping to near or below 20 percent by
the afternoon leading to several hours of elevated to critical
fire weather conditions. Though the surface pressure gradient will
be more relaxed than yesterday, sustained speeds nearing 15 to 25
mph may develop across Central Texas as strong mid-level flow
(90+ knot jet streak) overlays a deeply mixed boundary layer. As
mentioned in previous discussions, there will be a west to
northwest wind shift associated with the passing weak cold front
so fire crews should prepare for a shift in fire behavior as the
front moves through. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM
this morning through 9 PM this evening for portions of Central
Texas generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. Similar to
yesterday, blowing dust is expected to lower visibilities across
the warned area this afternoon. Surface winds will again quickly
diminish after sunset setting up a clear and calm night across
the region with moderately better overnight humidity recovery.
Modest wind speeds on Sunday should lower the overall fire weather
threat, but with afternoon humidity bottoming out around 15-20%
again, please continue to avoid activities that could produce
fire starts.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/
/Monday through Friday/

A progressive, amplified upper level flow pattern will persist
across much of the CONUS next week, delivering dry, windy
conditions and a healthy range of temperatures to North Central
Texas.

The large upper trough that provided the strong gusty winds to
North Central Texas Friday through much of the weekend pulls
eastward away from the region, an amplified ridge will briefly set
up shop over the Southern Plains. Strong subsidence and
compressional warming associated with this ridge will facilitate a
healthy increase in temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with many
areas reaching well into the 80s. A lee trough over the western
High Plains will enable yet another tight surface pressure
gradient to become established over the area both Monday and
Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting over 20 mph each day.
Coupled with continued low afternoon humidities, an elevated fire
threat will persist through the early portion of next week (and
most of the week, for that matter).

An amplified trough will quickly transit the Southern Plains
Wednesday, helping to push a fast moving cold front southward
through the area. Gusty northwest winds on the order of 15 to 25
mph will come fast on the heels of this front, and cold advection
will reel afternoon temperatures back to more seasonable 60s and
lower 70s. Clear skies and light winds will enable lows Thursday
morning to dip into the 30s and lower 40s areawide.  Following
another cool, dry Thursday thanks to northwest upper flow, an
upward tick of temperatures will occur Friday as zonal upper flow
and southerly surface winds reassert themselves across the region.

The next possible opportunity for any precipitation across North
Central Texas won`t appear until next Sunday at the earliest, with
chances a bit more promising in the following week. In the
meantime, persistent breezy conditions, low daytime relative
humidities and dry fuels will result in a persistent elevated fire
weather environment. Caution will need to be maintained
throughout next week in order to avoid significant new wildfire
starts.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

West Texas dust continues to reduce the horizontal and vertical
visibility to MVFR at all the North Texas TAF airports with near
calm winds at the surface and breezy southwest winds just above
the surface. Improvements in flight conditions will likely
continue to be very slow until diurnal mixing occurs around 15Z so
have once again pushed back the return of VFR until later this
morning. A weak FROPA will bring gusty west to northwest winds
back to the region this afternoon with the northward wind shift
occurring around 18-19Z. Wind speeds will quickly fall below 12
knots after sunset (~01Z) with VFR prevailing through the end of
the period.

This morning`s convective activity should remain well south and
east of the TAF sites with only a mention of VCSH necessary at
Waco through mid-morning.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  44  72  48  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  44  72  46  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               71  41  64  43  74 /  30   5   0   0   0
Denton              69  38  69  44  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  40  68  44  78 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dallas              74  45  70  49  80 /  10   5   0   0   0
Terrell             73  41  67  43  78 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  44  71  47  80 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              77  42  76  45  83 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  39  73  43  84 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ141>143-156>160-174.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ147-148-162-174-175.

&&

$$