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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170553
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1153 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday Night/

The weather will remain fairly quiet through Monday although some
changes are on the way. Weak shortwave ridging will give way to a
stronger upstream shortwave by Monday morning and an area of low
pressure at the surface will deepen northwest of the region. This
will allow southerly winds to strengthen and become more
southwesterly during the day. With mostly sunny skies, the
southwest winds should allow temperatures to climb into the upper
70s and lower 80s across the region. As the upstream shortwave
gets a little closer, the area of low pressure will move off to
the northeast, and a fairly strong cold front will slide south
into the area. The front should enter our northwest counties by
afternoon and will slide through the remainder of the region this
evening and tonight. Some scattered showers may develop tonight
along the front mainly in our east and southeast counties where
we`ll have 20-30% PoPs.

For the remainder of tonight, an area of low clouds will remain
persistent across Central and East Texas. Some westward expansion
is expected toward morning, but these should scatter out during
the late morning hours. Some areas of fog may develop again
throughout North Texas into the mid morning hours on Monday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

With the cold front along the far southeastern parts of the
forecast area by daybreak Tuesday, many of us will wake up to much
cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies. A few scattered
showers are possible across Central and East Texas, but a majority
of us will still be rain-free. The front will be relatively
shallow, but isentropic ascent overtop of the boundary will be
lacking initially due to the lack of sufficient WAA in the 925-850
layer. Due to this, precip activity through much of Tuesday and
Wednesday should be intermittent, on the light side, and confined
to Central Texas closer to the surface front. As we continue into
Wednesday, a more potent shortwave trough will work its way out of
the Rockies and induce the development of a wave along the upper
front over West Texas. This will increase low level isentropic
ascent, which when coupled with the seeder moisture brought about
by the mid level trough, should develop widespread rain across
the southern two thirds of the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. All precip should come to an end from north to
south over the course of the day Thursday as low level dry
advection and upper ridging takes hold of the region to close out
the work week.

Bottom line...the heaviest rain is forecast to fall Wednesday
night with the highest totals remaining south of I-20. Areas along
the Red River can expect <0.25", the Metroplex can expect between
0.25-0.75", and most of Central Texas can expect around 1-1.25"
with isolated higher totals. Flooding isn`t much of a concern with
this system, however, common trouble spots may have minor impacts
during the Thursday morning commute.

The latter part of the work week and early next weekend should
have relatively mundane weather with slightly below normal
temperatures. Southerly flow will take over next weekend with warm
and moist advection increasing as leeside cyclogenesis ensues
under a developing upper trough over the Western CONUS.

The global ensemble systems have been keen on the development of
a deep trough over the Western CONUS late next weekend and the
early parts of next week. This will put the area under increasing
southwest flow aloft, sandwiched between modified mT air to our
south and a well defined mid-level baroclinic zone to our NW. This
favors the development of nicely organized kinematic system(s)
across the Central/Southern Plains late next weekend and/or early
next week once the trough ejects out of the Rockies. If the
thermodynamics can join in, this could be set the stage for a
series of potent storm systems moving across North and Central
Texas next week.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR prevails across most of the region tonight with southerly
winds around 10 kt. IFR/MVFR cigs/vis are more prevalent east of
I-35 and we`ll continue to monitor their westward expansion
through the night. For now, ACT/DAL appear to have the best chance
for MVFR cigs/vis through mid morning on Monday. We`ll have a
TEMPO for BKN018 at DAL from 13-16Z and prevail MVFR cigs at Waco
through the morning hours. Clouds should scatter during the late
morning as stronger southwesterly flow mixes down.

A cold front will move through North Texas during the evening
hours. Winds will become more westerly just ahead of the front
with a wind shift to the north-northwest around 23Z in the
Metroplex and 3-4Z at Waco. Some showers may develop along the
front late this evening but best chances should be in East Texas.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  79  48  59  42 /   0   0   0  20  20
Waco                57  81  53  63  43 /   5   5  20  40  40
Paris               54  74  49  57  42 /   5  10   0  30  30
Denton              53  74  44  58  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
McKinney            55  78  47  57  42 /   0   0   0  20  20
Dallas              58  80  51  59  44 /   0   0   0  20  20
Terrell             58  76  51  60  44 /   5   5   5  40  30
Corsicana           60  77  55  62  46 /   5  10  20  50  40
Temple              57  80  55  64  45 /   5   5  30  40  50
Mineral Wells       51  80  44  58  39 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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