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000
FXUS64 KFWD 182039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Saturday/

Surface analysis this afternoon reveals a surface low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle. A warm front extends east from this surface
low into the Central Plains, with a cold front extending back to
the northwest into the Front Range of Colorado. This low will
track east during the next 24 hours, driving a strong Arctic cold
front through North and Central Texas. The passage of this cold
front will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms, strong non-
convective winds, and cold temperatures.

The cold front will enter the northwestern portion of our county
warning area around 10:00 PM CST this evening; reaching the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area by midnight, and Waco-
Killeen-Temple by 2-3 AM. The cold front will be marked by strong
winds out of the northwest and rapidly falling temperatures. Given
that sustained winds of 20-30 MPH appear likely, a Wind Advisory
has been issued for our entire county warning area, valid through
6:00 PM CST Saturday.

Ahead of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest chance for
thunderstorms will be in the far eastern part of our forecast
area where the strongest instability will be present. NAM
guidance is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 1,000 J/kg
along with 0-6 km bulk shear values of over 50 knots. SPC has
drawn a marginal risk for our eastern two tiers of counties, and
this appears very reasonable based on forecast severe weather
parameters. The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging
winds in the southeastern counties. The severe threat will be less
in our northeastern counties where SBCAPE will be more limited,
but steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of more than 1,000 J/kg
suggests a few marginally severe elevated thunderstorms may be
possible. Back to the west, coverage and intensity of convection
should be less, with mainly rain showers forecast (though a few
rumbles of thunder as far west as I-35/35W cannot be totally ruled
out). The threat for thunder should end by sunrise as the Arctic
air filters into our region.

Most precipitation should come to an end as we head into the
daylight hours on Saturday. Some very light deformation area
precipitation on the back side of the surface low may linger near
the Red River into the day however. Temperatures may be just cold
enough to support a change to very light snow across our
northernmost tier of counties (Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Fannin,
and Lamar), but no accumulation is forecast. All precipitation
should end by early afternoon, with winds slackening towards
sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes across the Southern
Plains.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday Night through Friday/

Winds will continue to diminish through late Saturday night as
high pressure builds through the central part of the U.S. allowing
the gradient to relax across North Texas. Low level cold advection
will continue through late evening, then as winds diminish and
skies remain clear, temperatures will continue to fall into the
low to mid 20s areawide. If winds can manage to go completely calm
in some outlying areas, some upper teens would not be out of the
question. The real cold air will be short lived though as a
highly amplified progressive upper pattern remains in place.

By Monday, the center of the surface ridge will slide eastward
with mid level ridging overhead and another strong shortwave
digging into the southwest U.S. Strong height falls over the
western U.S. and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies
will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across North Texas by
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph
with temperatures climbing into the 60s. Upstream amplification of
the ridging approaching the West Coast will allow our upper trough
over the southwest U.S. to dig way south into Mexico on Tuesday.
Southerly flow and a quick moisture return will lead to increased
cloud cover early on Tuesday followed by an increase in rain
chances Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front. This front on
Tuesday will have some fairly cold air behind it as well and
should race through the area Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it
looks like mainly rain showers along the front and mainly east of
I-35 into Tuesday evening.

The remainder of the week will remain cool with highs in the 40s
on Wednesday and lower 50s on Thursday. Another weak front will
slide through the region Thursday night reinforcing the cool air
in place.

Dunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1218 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/
/1800Z TAFs/
Concerns -- Lingering MVFR stratus. Late evening/overnight FROPA.
Crosswinds ahead of FROPA. SHRA/TSRA potential.

First...some lingering MVFR and occassionally IFR stratus
continues to linger across North and Central Texas. Metroplex TAF
sites have generally improved to VFR...except for GKY which
continues to show IFR. A very sharp gradient in cigs can be found
along I-20...thus prevailed VFR with TEMPO IFR (it seems to be a
more or less an "all or nothing" situation) through 18/2000Z. ACT
remains socked in this afternoon...but slow improvement is
expected there as well.

Regarding the overnight FROPA...a strong cold front will approach
the D10 TRACON area a little after midnight local time tonight.
Ahead of this front...winds will veer out of the west and will
increase as the pressure gradient across the region tightens.
Sustained winds of 15-20 KT with gusts in excess of 25 KT may lead
to some crosswind concerns on the 17/35 and 18/36 runways at DFW
this evening prior to the FROPA. Following FROPA...winds will veer
sharply out of the NW and increase further with gusts in excess of
35 KT possible. Luckily...the orientation of these winds from
about 340 degrees should minimize the crosswind concerns after the
FROPA. In terms of precipitation potential...high resolution model
guidance is not particularly aggressive with coverage. It may even
be a stretch to include VCSH at this point...but it`s not entirely
out of the question that a few showers and perhaps even an
isolated lightning strike will be observed somewhere in the D10
area in the few hours ahead of the FROPA. Finally...cigs should
drop to MVFR immediately ahead of the FROPA and continue for
several afters after it.

While elevated winds will continue through the day Saturday...cigs
should gradually improve throughout the day and return to VFR by
late afternoon.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  42  27  50  39 /  30  20   0   0   0
Waco                39  46  27  52  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               34  38  23  45  33 /  50  30   0   0   0
Denton              34  41  25  50  39 /  30  30   0   0   0
McKinney            35  40  25  47  37 /  40  30   0   0   0
Dallas              36  42  28  50  39 /  30  20   0   0   0
Terrell             38  42  25  47  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           39  43  27  47  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              40  48  28  53  37 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  43  25  54  39 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

37/91