073
FXUS64 KFWD 270021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The northwestern third of our forecast area will see a faint haze
in the sky this evening due to lingering dust planted over the
area. The eastern & southeastern half of our forecast area will
remain under cloud cover this evening and tonight, and start the
day cloudy tomorrow morning as well. There is a 20-30% chance of
isolated showers east of I-35/35E late tonight and tomorrow, but
we have capped the potential for thunderstorms at 15%. The
meteorological discussion below remains on track at this time.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday afternoon/

We are wrapping up the week with another mild summer day as
highs stay in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. A few
locations across the far east/southeast will likely stay in the
low 80s due to widespread cloud cover and better rain chances
this afternoon. The upper level trough responsible for the below
normal temps this week remains sandwiched between two ridges on
either side over the Gulf of Mexico and Baja California. This
will keep the unsettled pattern at least through Saturday
afternoon with isolated to scattered rain and isolated storms.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect some clearing
of clouds with a chance of rain/storms (20-50%) generally east of
I-35. The threat for heavy rain and flooding will remain outside
of our area to the east/south and along the TX Coast.

The trough will finally begin to move northeastward late tonight
into Saturday. However, we expect one more round of scattered
precipitation during the day and perhaps as early as Saturday
morning. Some models are a little more aggressive than others but
with plenty of moisture in place, any small convergence zone or
little forcing will be sufficient for at least a few
showers/storms. In addition to the rain, low clouds will return
again overnight and persist through at least mid morning. This
will keep highs again generally in the mid-upper 80s and low 90s.
A few locations across West Texas will see mid 90s as skies
remain mostly clear.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with this
latest update. On and off rain chances have a low chance of
continuing through the rest of the weekend before drier and
hotter weather returns to North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs
will gradually soar into the upper 90s and low 100s by the end of
the week. The return of this heat may lead to the reintroduction
of heat products nearly each day as we kick off the month of
August. The reprieve from the summer heat is coming to an end.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Morning Onward/

Upper level shortwave troughing and its accompanying diffuse
upper low will stay planted atop the region through the weekend,
allowing for the continuance of daily shower/storm chances and
cooler temperatures through this weekend. Like the days before,
best chances for precipitation will be during the afternoon hours,
across East and Central Texas where the more abundant moisture
content lies. Further north and west, the potential for
precipitation is there, but will be more isolated in nature. Not
everyone will receive rain on either day, but for those lucky ones
that do, you can generally expect less than 1" underneath any one
storm. However, high PWATs greater than 1.5" (up to 2" in East
and Central Texas!) will allow for bouts of heavy rain. Isolated
higher rainfall amounts of at least 1-1.5" would be plausible
within any slow-moving storm. Severe weather is not expected with
any of the weekend activity, though lightning will pose a threat
to anyone outside who finds themselves near or under a storm.
Otherwise, expect another couple of days of below-normal high
temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

By the beginning of this upcoming week, the aforementioned upper
low is progged to move northward and become re-absorbed into the
overall mid-level flow. This will allow the longwave ridge out
west to spread east across North and Central Texas throughout the
week. Underneath the subsident airmass, expect warming
temperatures and the end of any mentionable rain chances for the
rest of the long term forecast period. Afternoon highs will
gradually rise into the mid 90s to a few degrees above the century
mark by midweek. Alongside those rising temperatures, continued
increased humidity will push daily peak heat indices into Heat
Advisory territory, ranging from 100-110 degrees. Expect a return
of heat headlines as we go into the latter half of this upcoming
week as summer returns in full fashion.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and southeast flow will prevail this evening, although haze
(due to lingering dust) over the western D10 airports may restrict
slant range visibility to around 5 miles during sunset. A blanket
of MVFR ceilings will move into D10 from the east tonight and
linger through 16-18Z tomorrow. Cloud bases are most likely to
hover between 1000-1200 ft, but there is a 30-40% chance of at
least intermittent IFR between ~10-15Z. Also not mentioned in the
TAFs is the 20% chance of isolated showers tomorrow morning and
afternoon. Most of the precip should remain east of D10 and ACT,
so we have no mentionable weather in the TAFs. Drier air will
filter into the region tomorrow, allowing for the low-level
ceilings to scatter by the mid-late afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  75  93  78 /   5  20   0  10   5
Waco                73  89  73  90  75 /  10  20   5  20   5
Paris               70  86  72  89  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
Denton              72  92  73  95  76 /   5  10   0   5   5
McKinney            72  90  73  93  76 /  10  20   0  10  10
Dallas              74  91  74  93  77 /  10  20   0  10   5
Terrell             71  87  73  90  75 /  20  30   5  20  10
Corsicana           73  88  74  91  77 /  20  30   5  30  10
Temple              72  88  72  90  75 /  10  20   5  30   0
Mineral Wells       70  94  72  96  75 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$