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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230058
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
758 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Tonight through Friday Evening/

The only changes made to the earlier short term forecast regarding
the cold front were to introduce convective chances across the
north after midnight and to use some of the NAM12 timing on the
cold front with its superior handling of colder, but initially
shallow frontal intrusions.

I have introduced increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
across most of North Texas after midnight and well in advance of
the much-heralded, approaching strong surface cold front. A lead
shortwave currently moving east across the Big Country and
Northwest Texas was already producing scattered, high-based
showers and thunderstorms. This activity should continue to move
east with a strong mid level impulse and impact much of North
Texas from I-20/30 to the Red River Valley after midnight. Though
this activity is not going to amount to much regarding rainfall
amounts and storm strength, lift with this mid level impulse is
fairly impressive and causing rapid saturation in the mid levels
and some cloud-top cooling noted on infrared GOES satellite
imagery.

We continue to show the cold front arriving into the northwest
counties just before daybreak, then having moved through the
I-20/DFW Metro area around mid-morning with showers and
thunderstorms accompanying the cold front. By afternoon, strong
cold advection will result in temperatures rapidly plummeting
through the 50s and even the 40s across western North Texas.
Meanwhile, better storm chances will linger across Central and
East Texas, as the strong cold front makes its presence known
across those areas. With highs across this area warming well into
the 70s to even near 80 across the I-14 corridor, instability may
be enough for a strong storm or two with small hail in advance of
the cold front.

The cold front and its associated convective activity should exit
south and east of the area by Friday evening and not have any
impact on the World Series game being held in Arlington, TX.
However, chilly temperatures and continued brisk north winds will
need to be accounted for with those planning to be in attendance.
Wind chill values in the upper 30s and lower 40s are likely by the
end of the game in the late evening.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 338 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/
/Friday Night through Next Week/

Tomorrow`s front should be well south of the area by Friday night
with a high pressure ridge axis moving through the area Saturday.
Dense low level stratus should eventually give way to partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon. Expect high
temperatures in the 60s with generally light and veering winds.
South winds will return by Saturday evening as the high center
shifts east and a leeside low deepens over the Panhandles. This
will lead to a warm, increasingly humid, and breezy day Sunday.

An Arctic airmass and its associated cold front should move into
North and Central Texas Sunday night and Monday morning. The cold
front will bring a sharp temperature drop, gusty north winds, and
dense low level stratus behind the front. Meanwhile, a deep upper
trough should become mostly cutoff over the Southwestern CONUS and
meander east through the early to middle parts of next week. This
will help stall out the cold front to our south/east while keeping
the area under southwest flow aloft. The combination of low level
overrunning conditions and weak shortwaves ejecting out of the
upper low to our west will keep cool, cloudy conditions with
off/on rain chances over the area until the trough is ejected
east. The global guidance is struggling to pinpoint an exact
timing of this, but even the slowest guidance advances the trough
east of the area by Thursday night.

It would be a disservice to not mention that this system has the
potential to bring Winter Weather to parts of Western North Texas
and the Big Country early next week. At this time, we are not
confident of this occurring, therefore, it has been left out of
our official forecast with the afternoon`s update. If Winter
Weather were to occur, it appears most likely Monday night into
Tuesday morning generally along and west of US-281 and north of
US-377 from Comanche to Stephenville in the form of freezing rain,
as a shallow freezing layer develops underneath a substantial warm
nose aloft. The most likely scenario at this time, however, is
just a cold rain. Low Winter Weather potential returns Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning to Western North Texas and the Big
Country, but again, with the temperature forecast so uncertain at
this time, no mention of Winter Weather was included with this
forecast update. Regardless, surface temperatures should be warm
enough to mitigate any significant impacts from occurring. The
biggest (and our most confident) impact from this system could
actually be below freezing temperatures developing over Western
North Texas Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. This would prematurely
end the Fall growing season and allow vegetation to begin its
Winter cure.

The entire evolution of next week`s system will continue to evolve
in the coming days and should come into focus this weekend, as
the airmass finally spills into the Front Range.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Challenges: Timing strong FROPA and convective chances late
tonight and through the morning hours Friday. Arrival of MVFR/IFR
cigs after 09z Friday.

925mb flow of 25-30 knots overnight will help MVFR cigs invade
Waco Regional Airport by 08z-09z, then arrive into the D10
terminals by 11z-12z just in advance of a strong cold FROPA into
the area between 13z-15z. Waco Regional Airport will have a chance
of IFR conditions between 11z-15z as well, but I do not expect
this to reach north into DFW Metro Terminals thanks to increasing
shower/storm coverage occurring with the arrival of the
aforementioned strong cold FROPA just after 12z Friday.

VCSH was added for the D10 terminals across the DFW area for
mainly low convective potential with northbound traffic between
the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts. This is a direct result of a
lead shortwave disturbance that is forecast to track east across
the Red River Valley overnight into early Friday morning. Later
TAFs may have to add VCTS in sooner than the current 11z timing
`if` this lead disturbance were to track further south in latitude
than currently expected. Better convective chances shift south
with the advancing cold front and toward Waco Regional Airport,
while advancing away from DFW Metro terminals after 18z Friday.
Some residual lift above the shallow frontal inversion may support
spotty -RA/-SHRA to continue across DFW airports through 21z
Friday. I have maintained VCSH for that potential.

Otherwise, look for SE winds 10-15 knots to become S/SSW by 12z
Friday at D10 terminals, before an initial windshift to NW 15-20
knots 13z-14z, before strong low level CAA behind the FROPA drives
N winds 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots after 15z. Wind speeds
and gusts should gradually diminish between 21z and 00z as the
frontal inversion deepens with north winds around 15 knots
continuing beyond into Friday evening.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  62  47  64  58 /  30  80   0   0   0
Waco                70  73  49  68  58 /  10  40   0   0   0
Paris               64  67  46  60  53 /  20  70  10   0   0
Denton              57  57  44  63  55 /  40  80   0   0   0
McKinney            61  61  45  63  55 /  30  80   0   0   0
Dallas              64  64  48  64  58 /  20  70   0   0   0
Terrell             66  70  46  64  55 /  10  60  10   0   0
Corsicana           69  74  48  67  57 /  10  50  10   0   0
Temple              69  74  48  69  58 /  10  40   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       56  56  43  65  55 /  40  60   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$