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000
FXUS64 KFWD 080011
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Evening/

Waning visible imagery shows several smoke plumes across the
region originating from both wildfires and prescribed burns. These
plumes reveal the anticyclonic low level flow around a surface
ridge centered near the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The ridge
will continue to shift to the east, keeping return flow in place
and bringing a gradual return of low level moisture to the area.

Fire weather will continue to be the primary concern in the short
term before a significant low level moisture surge occurs by
midweek. High temperatures near 70 and gusty south winds will
elevate the fire danger again by Monday afternoon. Otherwise,
overall nice weather with seasonable temperatures will persist
through Monday night.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 336 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/

Breezy, warm, and rain-free weather will continue through the
first half of the work week across North and Central Texas.
Elevated fire weather concerns will likely continue across the
western half of the region, but an influx of low level moisture
should help mitigate fire concerns by Wednesday. It will
definitely feel like spring across the region as above-normal
temperatures are expected, with highs in the 70s and low 80s and
lows in the 50s and 60s.

Upper level troughing will set up across the southwest US by
Wednesday, placing North and Central Texas beneath southwesterly
flow. Unsettled weather will return to the forecast on Thursday
and continue through the weekend. The presence of high moisture
content, mid level instability, and several passing disturbances
may allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop. At this time,
severe weather is not expected, but small hail cannot be ruled out
due to steep mid level lapse rates. While rain/storm chances will
be confined to areas along the Red River and Northeast Texas on
Thursday, rain/storm chances on Friday and the weekend will exist
across the region. However, uncertainty remains as model guidance
continues to show varying solutions on the evolution of the upper
level trough/low and the attendant cold front. The cold front
will move across the region on Saturday and allow temperatures to
return to values closer to seasonal normals. Continue to check
back for updates throughout the week as we refine the details!

Garcia

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Occasional wind gusts should be dropping off over the next few
hours, but should return by midday Monday, with the direction
varying from south to southeast. Near-term guidance has been far
too low on velocities today, so have gone above guidance and added
gusts for Monday in the latest TAFs. Otherwise, VFR will continue
through the end of the period as upper ridging dominates the
area.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    42  69  54  74  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                39  69  54  75  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               38  66  49  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              38  69  52  74  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            39  68  53  74  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              43  69  56  75  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             38  68  51  75  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           40  69  54  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              39  70  53  75  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       40  70  52  76  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$