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000
FXUS64 KFWD 070802
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023/
/Through Thursday/

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished across the region, with
quiet weather prevailing for the rest of tonight. As our weather
pattern remains stagnant, today`s forecast will be strikingly
similar to the past several days, with hot afternoon temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s and diurnal showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty increases beyond
the afternoon hours, as we could see a complex of storms develop
across West Texas and move east into North and Central Texas.
Timing of this complex of storms is questionable at the moment, so
PoPs were broad-brushed through the evening and overnight hours.
The overall severe weather threat will remain low, but gusty winds
and small hail will remain possible with any stronger storms.

By Thursday morning, mostly rain-free conditions are expected;
however, if storms arrive a bit later (after midnight) Wednesday
night as some guidance suggests, impacts to the morning commute
would become increasingly likely. Otherwise, Thursday will be
another hot day featuring additional afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday night through Tuesday/

The end of the week through the weekend will be hot and a bit
unsettled with a shortwave ridge axis remaining west of the
region. This pattern will allow for weak disturbances to move
through northwest flow aloft, resulting in at least some low daily
storm chances across portions of North Texas, especially during
the afternoon and evening. It does appear that the favored area
for storms will be near the Red River and across the northeast
portions of the forecast area. However, any random outflow could
result in showers or storms across the CWA. The overall severe
weather threat will be low but some of the stronger storms could
produce small hail and gusty downburst winds. As of now, Saturday
looks to be the day with the best storm chances.

Other than the daily low storm chances, the end of the week
through the weekend will be hot and humid with plenty of daytime
sun. Low temperatures Thursday night through Sunday will range
from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs Friday through Sunday will be
in the lower to middle 90s, except for upper 90s across some of
the western zones. Afternoon heat index values will like approach
or exceed 100 for many areas.

The upper ridge axis will shift eastward to the Southern Plains
early next week in response to a upper trough lifting from the
West Coast to the Great Basin. Increased subsidence will hinder
storm chances and keep temperatures around or above seasonal
normals. There is still a low chance a few storms could sneak
into North Texas on Monday when a weak cold front crosses the Red
River and briefly stalls. For now we will keep PoPs at 10% since
all upper support should remain to the northwest and moisture will
be limited above 850 mb. Should storms make it into North Texas
Monday, it will likely knock afternoon temperatures down from what
we currently have in the forecast.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions as well as light and variable winds will continue
across North and Central Texas. Another round of afternoon/evening
showers and storms is expected again today. A complex of storms
may develop across West Texas later today and move east into the
region this evening or late tonight. It`s possible this activity
could impact some or all of the terminals. However, areal extent
and timing remain uncertain at this time, so we`ll exclude this
from the TAF for now.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  93  72  96  72 /  20  20   5  10  20
Waco                68  91  69  95  71 /  10  20   5  10  10
Paris               68  91  68  90  68 /  20  20   5  20  20
Denton              66  92  68  95  68 /  20  20   5  10  20
McKinney            68  91  69  92  69 /  20  30   5  20  20
Dallas              71  93  73  96  73 /  20  30   5  20  20
Terrell             68  91  69  93  70 /  20  30   5  20  10
Corsicana           70  93  71  95  72 /  20  30  10  10  20
Temple              67  92  68  96  70 /  10  20   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       66  91  67  96  68 /  30  30   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$