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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190425
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Convection across Northwest Texas continues to dissipate this
evening, with its remnant anvil cirrus currently overspreading
parts of North Texas. Meanwhile, increasing southeasterly low-
level flow will contribute to the development of MVFR stratus
across parts of Central Texas over the next few hours. Some of
these cigs may encroach on KACT around daybreak, and will continue
to address this low-end potential with a Tempo group. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail through Monday. Winds will generally be SSE at
8-12 kts with some higher gusts possible in the afternoon. No
direct impacts from convection are expected at the TAF sites
through the period.

-Stalley

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

A weak disturbance is moving through the Southern Plains this
afternoon where showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts
of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. There is a narrow band of low
level convergence that extends back toward Wichita Falls and a few
showers have tried to develop in that area over the last few hours
with little success. We`ll continue to monitor our far northwest
counties through the peak heating of afternoon, but strong
subsidence associated with the mid level ridge will likely squash
any convective attempts. Farther east, puffy cumulus are spreading
through East Texas with the effects of the upper ridge likely to
keep a lid on things in this area as well. Deeper mixing west of
I-35 has allowed dewpoints to fall into the lower 60s. Resulting
heat indices are just shy of 105, but we`ll let the current heat
advisory remain in place through Monday as this boundary of deeper
mixing will shift back and forth a few counties through tomorrow.

The beginning of the work week will continue to be hot with highs
near 100 and little chance for rainfall as the persistent upper
ridge remains in place. As we get into the middle and latter part
of the week, there continues to be signs that the ridge will
flatten some and retreat westward. This will result in high
temperatures being 1-3 degrees cooler than they currently are.
Rainfall chances still look scant through the end of the week with
ensemble guidance keeping PoPs generally less than 20% into next
weekend. We`ll have some low PoPs in for Thursday through the
nighttime hours to account for a weak disturbance which may
encounter some 2"+ PWs through our eastern counties, but
otherwise the forecast will remain hot and dry.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  81 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  76  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              79 100  78 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79  99  78  99  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              82 101  82 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             78  99  78 101  79 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79  99  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77 100  75  98  76 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       76 100  75  99  76 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

26/24