Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Sunday and Monday/

The long-awaited cold front has pushed into the Lower Brazos/
Trinity River Valley early this Sunday morning. However, it has
(as expected past few days) slowed down or briefly stalled. This
is causing re-generation/training of tstorms with heavy rainfall
and from near Rockdale/Thorndale, toward Hearne/Franklin, east
toward Marquez/Jewett in far western Leon county with 2-4" across
a few areas and it`s still raining. The hope here is that
increasing low level CAA and eventual an increasing cold pool
will get the convection to push southward out of the area in the
next hour or two.

Otherwise, a much cooler day in store as temperatures will be
20-25 degrees cooler in most areas with continued cloud cover and
brisk and north-northeast winds. I just don`t see where much more
than 10 degree warm up will occur, except possibly areas across
the Big County and Colorado River Valley west of US-281, where
mid- upper 70s may be achieved this coming afternoon, with highs
elsewhere ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s. The brisk NE
surface winds may keep a feeling in the 60s. Lastly, with the
elevated 925mb-850mb front being stalled across Central TX, weak
isentropic ascent will continue over the shallow frontal
inversion. This should provide at least widely scattered
convection across Central TX, especially E of I-35 as mid level
lapse rates will remain 7-7.5 deg C/km with continued S flow 10-20
kts remaining over the top of the frontal inversion (at least
that`s the current indication from higher-resolution models such
as the HRRR/NAM). Couldn`t rule out a few stronger storms with
sub-severe hail from late morning through late afternoon.

Sunday night should be quiet weatherwise for the entire CWA, as we
see brief shortwave ridging and subsidence between systems, along
with cool temperatures Monday morning in the upper 50s along the
Red River, to the lower-mid 60s elsewhere. Light NE winds 10 mph
or less will prevail, eventually becoming easterly by daybreak. A
continued layer of stratus from a saturated frontal inversion
keeps a blanket on the surface from cooling too much and some
patchy, light fog certainly can`t be ruled out across a few areas
where surface temperatures cool toward their dew point values.

The quiet weather will be short-lived as mid level flow amplifies
with the approach yet another shortwave that will lift across
West TX during the morning and arrive Monday afternoon. Increasing
height falls will induce strong surface cyclogenesis across NE
NE/SE CO with low level WAA helping the old boundary to return as
a warm front with SE winds 10 to 20 mph and the return of 60s dew
points and humidity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase across those areas west of I-35 in North TX and Hwy 6 in
Central TX. There will be a warm up back into the 70s and I can`t
rule out a few areas in the Lower Brazos Valley see highs around
80, though continued cloud cover and increasing convection should
help to suppress that to a point.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/
/Sunday Night Onward/

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place the first half of
the week, followed by a return of hot and dry weather to finish
out the latter half of the week.

The cold front currently making its way through the region will
surge back northward a warm front on Monday in response to an
approaching mid-level trough from the west. With a northward
mass-response, plenty of moisture will be in place as a fairly
compact shortwave traverses across the region during the day.
Sufficient moisture, instability, and shear should be in place to
mention a threat for a strong to severe storms in the afternoon.
There`s still some uncertainty as to the location given models
diverge on the placement of highest instability, thus, a single
area can`t be ruled out regarding the potential for hazardous
weather at this time.

The next shortwave will emerge out of the Texas Big Bend region
Monday night, and with a slightly more amplified system, rain
chances will increase as we head into Tuesday morning. Overall,
instability should remain fairly low during the overnight period,
keeping the threat for severe weather low.

Another wave will progress through the region on Tuesday, likely
firing off another round of showers and storms. Although there is
a chance we could get some strong storms, overall confidence
remains low given models have yet to converge on location/timing
of the greatest storm threat.

A cold front will push southward Wednesday morning/afternoon,
once again reigniting the potential for more widespread showers
and storms. Timing of the front will play a significant role in
the potential for any severe weather ahead of the cold front. At
this time, the front is likely to move through North Texas during
the morning hours with instability remaining fairly low. Diurnal
heating should drive instability up across Central Texas given the
later FROPA, thus, the threat for severe weather could be
slightly higher.

In addition o the potential for strong to severe storms, there
will be a threat for minor flooding as early as Monday night
across western portions of Central Texas. This threat will then
shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday where rainfall totals
through the first half of the week may approach 4-6 inches. We`ll
continue refining the timing/location where the heaviest rain is
more likely to occur, and decide on the need for any flood
watches in the days to come.

After our much anticipated "cool & rainy" days, the heat is likely
to return as ridging strengthens across the northern Mexican
high terrain. Highs next weekend will be back in the 80s to 90s
with no precipitation expected.



/06z TAFs/

Challenges: Trends with cigs briefly rising into low VFR, but
returning to MVFR. Veering winds from N to NE/E.

A cold front has passed through all TAF sites with gusty N/NNE
winds 13-18 kts with gusts occasionally exceeding 25 kts. A
deepening frontal inversion across the D10 has helped cigs rise
into VFR between 035-045, though remaining MVFR at Waco closer to
the retreating cold front.

Outside of isolated -SHRA at Waco, all airports are generally
rain-free. I am watching convection back-building northward
toward Waco as S flow 15-20 kts still feeding up into the shallow
and elevated frontal slope. I`ll watch this closely, but for now
will keep VCTS/CB out of the forecast for now.

Otherwise, cooling of the boundary layer will result in cigs
returning back to MVFR for all D10 airports and Waco by 12z, as
gusty NE surface winds between 12-15 return by 15z. Winds become E
less than 10 kts after 00z Monday with possible MVFR/BR Vsbys
occurring at the end of the forecast and beyond.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  75  66  79  65 /  20  30  70  70  60
Waco                64  78  67  79  67 /  20  40  70  70  50
Paris               59  74  65  74  63 /  20  20  60  90  70
Denton              60  74  63  79  61 /  20  40  70  70  60
McKinney            61  75  65  76  62 /  20  20  70  80  60
Dallas              64  76  67  78  65 /  20  30  70  70  60
Terrell             62  76  65  77  65 /  10  20  60  80  60
Corsicana           64  78  67  78  66 /  10  20  60  80  60
Temple              65  78  65  79  67 /  20  50  70  70  40
Mineral Wells       61  74  63  80  61 /  20  50  70  60  50



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