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000
FXUS64 KFWD 060543
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Morning Through Tonight/

As noted 24 hours ago, there will be a low chance for sprinkles
and/or light convective activity along the Red River from the
pre-dawn hours through possibly as late as mid morning across the
far NE counties. You always have to cognizant of these northwest
flow mid level waves, such as the one that will be moving ESE
across OK at the current time. Fortunately, the bulk of the best
large-scale ascent will be just northeast of the CWA with a
relatively stable environment, though within the mid levels there
are forecast lapse rates in the 6-6.5 deg C/km range. I will
continue with the thought, though somewhat with a slightly
uncomfortable feeling that strength of this area of convection
will diminish and dissipate by sunrise. Feeling is that the source
of better ascent with the shortwave detaches further away to the
E across the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex region and arriving into a more
stable and drier environment should quell this activity in the
next several hours.

I will carry a slight chance capped off at 20% or less for
showers across our immediate Red River and far NE counties through
mid morning. Any rainfall amounts will be light. If I notice via
ENTLN and GLM data that a few lightning strikes continue, then
some isolated thunder may be needed to be added on the later
update. Otherwise, a secondary, albeit weak cool front will arrive
into North and Central Texas in wake of this system and increasing
subsidence later today. Despite a shifting of surface winds to the
northeast around 10 mph, little in the way of cold advection will
be associated with the frontal passage. With increasing sunshine
and insolation through the day, I have maintained a warm forecast
this afternoon into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Light ENE winds
around 5 mph are expected tonight under mostly clear skies. Lows
will be in the 50s, except around 60 degree within the immediate
DFW Metroplex, as surface dew points in the 50s stifle low
temperatures Friday morning from dropping any further.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/
/Thursday Night through Wednesday/

Quiet and seasonably warm weather will continue Thursday night and
Friday with a building ridge in the west and the return of Gulf
moisture to the region. Lows Thursday night will be generally in
the 50s and highs Friday will range from the mid 70s to the mid
80s. The upper ridge will gradually deamplify as it moves east
Friday night through Saturday in advance of a developing upper
trough in the west. Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid
weather will be the general rule for the weekend with lows Friday
night and Saturday night in the 60s and lower 70s and highs
Saturday in the 80s, except for some lower 90s across the
northwest. We should remain very capped on Saturday and the
dry line will remain over The Low Rolling Plains, therefore, we
do not anticipate any storms Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances will return to the northern zones Saturday
night with an approaching cold front and possible remnants of an
MCS moving southward from the Central Plains. These low storm
chances will continue on Sunday generally along and east of the
I-35 corridor as the cold front crosses the Red River and
shortwave energy approaches from the southwest.

The first half of next week will be very unsettled across North
and Central Texas with the cold front stalling across the region
and multiple shortwaves rotating around the base of the upper low
across the western states. There is some model disagreement on
just how far south the cold front will move and how fast the upper
system will open up and lift across the Central Plains.
Therefore, we will keep fairly low PoPs (20%-40%) in the
Monday-Wednesday time frame. We are not sure about the severe
potential at this point in time but there should be enough
instability, moisture and shear in the warm sector to support
some long lived updrafts. What we are more confident about is that
any storms that develop will contain some appreciable rainfall
with precipitable water values generally above 1.5 inches and a
relatively static source of lift provided by the nearly stalled
front.

Temperatures next week will be tricky to forecast since the
position of the cold front will determine favored areas for
clouds and precipitation. For now we will ride with the blended
numbers until we have more confidence on the front. Overall, it
looks like highs will be in the 70s Monday through Wednesday with
lows in the 50s and 60s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns: None. VFR throughout with weakening convection across OK
before 15z today remaining well NE of all airports.

Light E/NE winds 5 kts or less will continue through midday,
before a weak FROPA by early afternoon increases NE winds to near
10 knots. Light E/NE winds around 5 kts return after 00z Friday.

SCT-BKN, mid-high clouds will increase through the morning hours
but any appreciable SHRA chances will remain well NE of the D10
airports, as well as Waco Regional Airport.

SKC-SCT250 and VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and
tonight.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  82  58  84  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  79  53  78  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
Denton              52  80  55  82  63 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            52  80  54  81  63 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              58  82  60  84  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             54  80  56  81  63 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           55  82  57  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              54  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       52  81  56  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$