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000
FXUS64 KFWD 220442
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns -- None. Very gradual return to south flow.

Clear and calm conditions are the rule tonight as high pressure
remains overhead. Winds are light and variable to calm at all
terminals. Winds should veer gradually during the day
Tuesday...becoming southeasterly by mid to late afternoon at all
terminals. VFR and clear skies will continue through the TAF
period.

37

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

The primary concern for this forecast period will be the next cold
front that moves through Thursday evening. Currently, colder and dry
air continues to move into the area, producing clear skies and more
pleasant temperatures. Highs for the next couple days should remain
in the upper 70s across the area with lows staying in the low to mid
50s. Winds will begin to shift to the south Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, which will begin to advect warmer temperatures and
moisture back into the area.

During this time, the next trough begins to dig its way through the
lee side of the Rockies. Unfortunately, there`s still a large
disagreement between the different model solutions on the treatment
of this trough. The GFS keeps a progressive open wave that digs
through the Texas panhandle and moves through Thursday and exits the
area Friday. The ECMWF develops a closed low over New Mexico that
deepens and slowly moves over western Texas on Saturday before
exiting the region on Sunday. We are starting to get into the range
of mid-range models, which the NAM is suggesting more of an open
wave pattern like the GFS.

For this forecast we are leaning more towards the progressive
patterns, and leaving a small chance of precipitation in for Friday
and Saturday given the wide difference of solutions. While there is
a wide range of solutions for the upcoming weather, there is at
least consensus towards a cold front precipitation late in the week,
and it`s just a question of how much rain and for how long.
Following this front, there`s a consensus on cooler temperatures
lingering over the weekend before the return flow kicks in again
bringing warmer temperatures and moisture back into the area.

Zwink


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  75  51  79  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                45  76  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               44  69  46  73  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              43  75  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            43  74  49  77  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              50  76  52  79  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             45  75  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           47  74  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              46  76  49  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       43  75  49  79  55 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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