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000
FXUS64 KFWD 052028
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1256 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

/Today through Friday/

A shortwave trough currently located near the Four Corners region
will move quickly to the southeast over the next 24 hours. An
attendant surface low will move across the Texas Panhandle today,
then along the Red River of North Texas tonight. Veering surface
winds ahead of the system and subsequent downslope flow will
enhance the temperatures this afternoon, with highs still expected
to climb into the 70s despite the high cloud cover. A few
locations across the western zones may top out at 80 by late
afternoon.

The front will surge southeast through the region tonight,
clearing all counties by daybreak Friday. The lack of available
moisture will keep most locations dry as the front passes, save
for a few showers across the northeast counties. Thunder has been
removed from all grids based on the most recent guidance. Strong
cold air advection and the expectation of a post-frontal deck of
stratocumulus will lead to a cold and blustery Friday, with
temperatures staying mainly in the 50s.


30

&&

.LONG TERM...

/The Weekend through Next Week/

The upcoming weekend appears predominantly rain/storm free with
near to above normal temperatures by Sunday. Next week, we will
have some changes to contend with as there will be a potential
for rain/storms and cooler conditions. Saturday should be warmer
than Friday and with a bit more in the way of sunshine and lighter
winds, it will not feel as brisk. Highs will be near climatological
values with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Sunday will feature
even warmer conditions as southwesterly downslope flow overspreads
the area culminating in highs in the mid to upper 70s. The breezy
conditions coupled with the dry airmass may necessitate another
low end fire weather threat.

Changes are expected for parts of the day on Monday as a front
dives southward through North Texas. We`ll likely remain a good 5
to 10 degrees above normal even in the wake of the front north of
I-20, with compressional warming across Central Texas yielding
temperatures 15 to nearly 20 degrees above normal. The front will
bring some rain/storm chances, initially across East Texas Monday
afternoon, with more widespread rain and isolated storms Monday
night into Tuesday. Rain amounts are expected to be less than 1/2
inch. In addition, breezy north winds will overspread the area as
the surface pressure gradient tightens thanks to the building high
pressure upstream across the Panhandles and southwest Kansas.

Starting Tuesday, we will see temperatures well below
climatological normals as CAA commences. Temperatures are likely
to be at least 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Fortunately, it
appears that any precipitation will come to an end before a bulk
of coldest air invades North and Central Texas. The ECMWF does
remain a "wet" outlier and keeps a bit more in the way of
precipitation with temperature near "freezing." Given how largely
displaced this solution is from the model consensus, I`m a little
hesitant to side with this solution. Trends will be monitored.
Mid-week and beyond, there will be a risk for additional showers
as a modest WAA regime sets up.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1256 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds will shift to the west late this evening in
advance of a surface low pressure center and a cold front, which
may create minor cross-winds issues after 06Z. FROPA in the DFW
Metroplex is expected 09-10Z, then at KACT around 11Z Friday.
Gusty northwest winds can be expected with the passage of the
front and will continue through the end of the TAF period. Post-
frontal MVFR cigs should develop around 15Z Friday in the
Metroplex, but will likely remain northeast of the Waco area.
Any precipitation associated with the front should remain
northeast of all TAF sites.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  58  39  60  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  62  37  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               52  59  40  59  43 /  30   5   0   0   0
Denton              49  56  38  59  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  57  39  59  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  59  41  60  46 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             52  60  39  62  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  62  42  62  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  65  40  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  57  35  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/24