Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201130
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns and Challenges: None...VFR with a few-scattered CU
FL060-080 with a bit of cirrus here & there.

Isolated -SHRA/TSRA should remain to the east of all airports
this afternoon and early evening.

S-SE winds less than 10 knots will prevail through tonight.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
/Through Tonight/

The stubborn, albeit strong 595 decameter upper high will continue
to remain semi-stationary from the Southern High Plains eastward
across the Red River Valley, Oklahoma, and the Ark-La-Tex through
tonight. This will continue to provide many areas with above
normal temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 90s to the
lower 100s this afternoon. Determining how much surface dew point
temperatures actually mix out has been challenging, but per
investigation, used a mix of models that best displays reality of
the past few days. With that in mind, I have left the current Heat
Advisory configuration, though some counties on the western
periphery will be very borderline today per stronger mixing and
ambient high temperatures under 105 degrees. That said and for the
sake of consistency and simplicity, I will leave the configuration
alone.

Otherwise, there may be enough of a weakness and less subsidence
today along the southeast periphery of the upper high across parts
of eastern Central Texas to allow for an isolated, late day shower
or thunderstorm with a weakening seabreeze boundary easing towards
these areas. That said, my confidence isn`t high regarding
convective development with strength of subsidence versus strong
insolation and weak forcing. We`ll see how this all plays out
later today, as the hot temperatures could result in gusty winds
with any brief, stronger convective cells this afternoon and early
evening. All activity should dissipate by nightfall this evening,
as the upper high expands southward, but weakens slightly. As for
sensible weather, a repeat of another very warm and humid night
is in store for the entire area once again.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
/Wednesday Onward/

With elongated mid-level ridging still situated over the southern
US on Wednesday, hot and humid conditions should persist,
especially along/east of I-35 (where the heat advisory has been
extended). Weak impulses located over the High Plains and the
central Gulf Coast should remain well displaced from North and
Central Texas, keeping any convective activity outside of our
area. With that said, these subtle systems will help weaken the
ridge through the end of the week, and high temperatures should
slowly fall in tandem with lowering heights and perhaps more cloud
cover. By Thursday night into Friday, a weak surface front may
approach the Red River, perhaps aided by convective outflow. In
turn, low chances for showers and thunderstorms have been
maintained across the Red River, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley
for Friday.

Low precipitation chances linger into the weekend, primarily
during the daytime as most convective activity would be diurnally
driven. Ensemble data indicate that a broad mid-level weakness
(composed of several subtle impulses) should remain in place from
Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Given that these impulses should be
rather nebulous and are difficult to predict at this time range,
uncertainty in the timing/location/coverage of precipitation is
quite high. Therefore, maintained only slight PoPs both Saturday
and Sunday. High temperatures should gradually settle into the mid
90s, while lows remain solidly in the 70s.

Medium-range guidance suggests that this weakness aloft may
persist into early next week, perhaps favoring continued diurnal
activity Monday into Tuesday. Even still, coverage will likely not
be too impressive, and only slight-chance PoPs appear warranted.

Picca

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 100  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                99  78  99  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   5
Paris               98  76  96  76  94 /  10   5   5   5  10
Denton             100  79  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            98  79  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   5   5
Dallas             101  82 100  81 100 /   5   0   0   5   5
Terrell            100  79 101  78 100 /  10   0   0   0   5
Corsicana          100  77  97  77  97 /  10   0   0   0   5
Temple              99  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-159>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-101-102-117-
158.

&&

$$

05/11


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