Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 172359
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019


.AVIATION...
Minimal aviation weather concerns through Tuesday afternoon with
only scattered daytime Cu and scattered high clouds.

A light, mainly north, wind to start the TAF cycle will turn to
the south/southeast this evening and remain southerly through
Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds will remain under 12 knots.


79

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/
A rather tranquil day has followed yesterday`s severe weather
episode, with instability largely being scoured to the south.
Wind fields through the low levels are erratic and weak in the
wake of several MCSs and convective outflows, which has inhibited
moisture recovery today. Large-scale subsidence also exists
overhead on the southwest periphery of a departing shortwave
trough, acting to suppress any daytime shower activity that has
attempted to bubble up across our northeast. Later this evening
and tonight, widespread convection will initiate across far West
Texas and move east. Given the weak wind fields and limited
instability, this convection is largely expected to dissipate
prior to reaching our western zones Tuesday morning. However,
outflow from this complex could aid in developing new convection
in our area on Tuesday should a boundary exist across our west,
especially during peak heating. Temperatures will also be warmer
on Tuesday, and with some moisture recovery taking place, will
yield larger instability during peak heating.

On Tuesday night, a thunderstorm complex originating in the TX
Panhandle or Western Oklahoma may make a run at North Texas. There
is much uncertainty still with this potential, including both the
chance for it to make it into the CWA, as well as its severity.
If a robust MCS can be sustained into North Texas, it could pose a
strong wind threat along with heavy rainfall and minor flooding.

The main focus through the extended should probably be on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong to extreme instability will
exist during this time with mid 90s temperatures and 70s
dewpoints ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Convergence
along this front should initiate storms, likely a bit to our north
in Oklahoma, which should form into a complex and move off the
boundary to the southeast. Should this occur, a threat for severe
storms would exist given ample instability and moderate shear (in
the presence of a mid-level speed max) with hail and wind threats.
The greatest threat area would generally be across our
north/northeast zones, decreasing the farther southwest one`s
location.

A very hot and humid Thursday is expected as the front stalls to
our north and a dryline approaches from the west. Temperatures
should climb to some of the highest values of the season so far
with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Besides
contributing to very large instability during the afternoon
hours, these conditions will also yield heat index values in the
neighborhood of 105, especially east of I-35. This may necessitate
the first Heat Advisory of the season. During peak heating,
convective attempts may be made along the dryline across our
western CWA. Any storms could pose a localized strong/severe
threat given strong instability in place, despite relatively weak
shear. Convective initiation on Thursday afternoon does remain
uncertain at this time.

Additional hot and humid conditions will continue on Friday, but
some ridging aloft and associated subsidence is cause for a dry
forecast at this time. Additional convective chances may return
next weekend in the presence of deepening southwesterly flow
aloft.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  92  76  96  76 /   5  10  30  30  40
Waco                71  92  76  96  76 /   5  10  10   5  30
Paris               68  87  73  90  72 /   5  10  20  50  50
Denton              68  91  75  96  74 /   5  10  30  30  40
McKinney            68  91  75  94  74 /   5  10  30  40  40
Dallas              72  94  76  96  76 /   5  10  30  30  40
Terrell             69  90  75  95  75 /   5  10  20  40  50
Corsicana           71  90  74  92  75 /   5  10  10   5  40
Temple              71  91  75  96  77 /   5  10   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       67  91  72  97  71 /   5  20  30   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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