180
FXUS64 KFWD 200355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1055 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight Through Monday Night/

Hot, breezy, and humid weather will continue to start the week
with a mid level ridge in place and strong low level southerly
flow. A 40 knot low level jet will send stratus northward
overnight, reaching portions of Central Texas before sunrise.
These low clouds will not last long once the sun comes up and
boundary layer mixing begins.

After a warm and breezy night with lows mainly in the 70s,
temperatures Monday will steadily warm into the upper 80s to the
mid 90s. Dew points will mix out a bit, but afternoon heat index
values will still exceed the actual temperature by a few degrees.
The only thing that will help with the afternoon heat will be a
very breezy south wind between 10 and 20 mph with occasional
gusts as high as 30 mph. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset,
but it will still be a bit breezy, warm, and humid Monday night
with lows in the lower and middle 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this
upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist
overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have
made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave
disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east
into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our
northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near
the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave
disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into
Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to
make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but
exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this
time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it
too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The
NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region
before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with
moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and
ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid-
level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to
move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to
regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing
shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong
to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift
skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated
storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as
additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The
heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the
90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will
be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make
sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety
this upcoming weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern overnight will be the arrival of
low end MVFR to IFR stratus across Central Texas due to a 40 knot
low level jet. These low clouds should arrive around 11Z in Waco
and last through at least mid morning. Ceiling heights will hover
around 1000 ft but may briefly fall to 800 ft around sunrise. Much
like the past several days, the stratus will mix out before
reaching D10. Outside of these low clouds, VFR conditions will
prevail through Monday night with a few daytime Cu and few to
scattered high clouds.

A south wind will prevail through Monday night at sustained speeds
between 12 and 18 knots along with some gusts exceeding 25 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                71  89  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               69  89  71  87  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              73  90  74  89  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            72  89  74  87  75 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas              74  92  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             70  91  72  87  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           71  90  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              70  89  73  89  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       71  92  74  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$