Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182342
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017


.AVIATION...

Only high clouds remain this afternoon after a complex of
thunderstorms developed and dissipated north and west of the DFW
metroplex today. That complex of storms managed to push an
outflow boundary well into southeast Texas, which led to a few
hours of northerly winds across all TAF sites this afternoon. Most
locations have, or are in the process of returning back to
southerly flow. Winds will remain light out of the south through
the next 24-30 hours, with only high clouds traversing the North
and Central Texas sky.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop north of the DFW metroplex
TAF sites Saturday afternoon, with little to no impact to the
terminal. Inbound and outbound flights, however, may be impacted
by any convection to the North-Northeast-East. KACT will remain
convection free and VFR through this TAF cycle.


Hernandez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/
/Tonight/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across North Texas
this morning along and north of I-20 this morning. Development of
these storms occurred in a band of mid-level moisture and were
then aided by an outflow boundary that pushed into the region from
Oklahoma. Temperatures this afternoon were quite dependent on
cloud cover, convection and outflow boundaries. At 3 PM,
temperatures ranged from mid 70s to mid 80s in area in and near
where it was raining to the upper 90s across Central Texas where
there was abundant sunshine.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue into the
evening mainly along and north of I-20. This activity will wane
through sunset. Depending on development of thunderstorms over
Oklahoma tonight, there may be a slight chance of thunderstorms
late tonight across our northeastern zones...northeast of a
Sherman to Sulphur springs line. Winds will be southerly at 5 to
10 mph with lows in the 70s.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/
/Saturday through Friday/
There will be a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms across
all but Central Texas Saturday with the best chances across the
northeastern zones. An upper level ridge will try to build in late
Saturday through Monday. This should confine low rain chances to
areas east of the I-35 corridor Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures should be slightly above seasonal normals with highs
in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and lows mostly in the 70s.

Upper level heights should start to fall late Tuesday as the
ridge shifts westward and a shortwave moves across the Northern
and Central Plains. This will allow a cold front to move down the
Plains and into North Texas on Wednesday. The models differ on how
they handle the front with the GFS stalling the front north of
the I-20 corridor while the ECMWF moves it into Central Texas.
Either way, we should have a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday with lower chances on
Friday. With the increased cloud cover and chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highs will be a few degrees cooler with upper 80s
to mid 90s expected.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  98  79  98  79 /  20  10   5  10   5
Waco                77  99  77  99  76 /  10  10   0  10   5
Paris               75  95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  30  10
Denton              76  98  76  98  76 /  20  20   5  10   5
McKinney            75  97  76  96  76 /  20  20   5  20   5
Dallas              79  98  80  98  79 /  20  10   5  10   5
Terrell             75  97  76  97  75 /  20  10   5  20  10
Corsicana           77  98  77  97  76 /  20  10   0  10   5
Temple              75 100  76  99  75 /  10   5   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       73  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/25


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