Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271030
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
430 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

The forecast area will remain sandwiched between low pressure off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the
southern Plains. Dry southwest flow between these features will
result in mostly sunny skies and breezy afternoon/evening winds as
flow aloft is mixed to the surface. Models suggest some isolated
to scattered high based showers/thunderstorms are possible along
the southern portion of the Continental Divide during the
afternoon and evening.

Expect clearing skies tonight with little change in conditions on
Friday relative to today`s forecast. Highs today and Friday are
likely to be the warmest of the year, but not record setting.
Triple digits are possible Friday in the lower desert canyons of
southeast Utah.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Remnants of tropical storm Alvin may shake things and send some
moisture our way by Friday evening. Our first tropical storm in
the eastern Pacific is currently off the coast of southern Mexico
and is forecast to track northwest, weakening by Saturday morning.
Models have been somewhat consistent wrapping moisture into the
high pressure`s rotation as Alvin weakens. A northward track of
midlevel moisture will enter the Four Corners by Friday night and
continue into the weekend. An uptick in RH should decrease the
threat of Red Flag conditions and increase the chance for showers
and thunderstorms across higher terrain.

As for next week, this broad ridging doesn`t appear to leave the
southern plains region anytime soon. However, if the high pressure
drifts northward, this would push the tight pressure gradient
northwest, and keep our CWA under calmer winds aloft. Models tend
to diverge on positioning and intensity of the ridge of high
pressure by early next week, however, warm and relatively dry
weather is here to stay for the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the next 24
hours with no CIGS falling below ILS breakpoints. However, gusty
southwest winds will buffet the area from late morning through the
afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures will cause
stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface during afternoon and
evening hours today and Friday. The combination of wind gusts in
excess of 30 mph and low relative humidity will result in critical
fire weather conditions for portions of southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado where fuels are dry. Therefore, Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect for these areas from noon today through
Friday evening. Modest levels of moisture will stream northward
into the region Saturday reducing the critical fire weather
threat.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ203-
     207-290-292.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...ERW/NL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT


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