Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222019
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

Upper trough axis approaching the northern Rockies this afternoon
will dig into the central Rockies tonight and enter the central
and northern plains on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms will accompany the system as it moves
across the area during that time. No severe storms are expected
due to lack of instability. Total rainfall amounts through Monday
will be on the light side, with currently between a tenth and a
quarter of an inch forecast. Temperatures will be below normal
with lows tonight in the 40s and highs on Monday in the 50s with
mostly cloudy skies.

Mean trough position moves little on Tuesday with another
shortwave trough rotating through the axis. Track will be a little
further south with better chances for rain/thunderstorms south of
the area, but with a closed upper low potentially sitting directly
over the area rain chances will continue. GFS a little more
bullish with rain on Tuesday in eastern half of the forecast area,
but appears to be overdone at this time. Generally looking at more
light rain on Tuesday with another tenth to a quarter of an inch
possible. Temperatures continue to be below normal with highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. It is possible might see
another frost Tuesday night with middle 30s in northeast Colorado.

Upper trough will finally start to lift out on Wednesday. Showers
may linger in the morning especially in eastern areas then might
finally see some afternoon sun. Temperatures, optimistically
perhaps, rebound into the upper 60s to around 70 for highs, with
lows Wednesday night in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

For the extended period, the main wx focus will be the above normal
temperatures expected as a strong, amplified upper ridge traverses
the central Plains.

The latest GFS/ECMWF seem in tandem for the most part on Thursday
and Friday, but timing of a couple fronts/shortwaves across the
northern tier of the cwa this coming weekend, are allowing for
inconsistency in pops and slightly cooler temps.

Overall, the area will see dry conditions for Thursday and Friday,
with low chances for showers and even some thunder for the late
afternoon early evening timeframe for the upcoming weekend. Have
stayed consistent with previous shift keeping highest pops mainly
Highway 36 and north into Nebraska for both days.

With the expected hot and dry conditions, fire wx concerns arise
once again. Of course it will depend on how much green up has
occurred this past weekend and the beginning of this week, but
Friday has the best potential at this time for near critical
conditions, with Thursday and Saturday not too far behind, meaning
one criteria close but not met. The focus on Friday centers in
locales along and west of Highway 27. RH readings will drop into the
lower and mid teens, and winds will be south-southwest(downslope)
gusting 25-30 mph and will have to be monitored as the week
progresses.

For temps, the entire extended period will see above normal
conditions especially for highs. Thursday will have mid and upper
80s, giving way to lower and mid 90s on Friday. Slightly cooler on
Saturday with a range from the mid 80s to mid 90s, warmest east.
Going into Sunday, another slight drop in highs with a range from
upper 70s to the upper 80s, warmest east.

Overnight lows will have ranges mainly in the 50s for Thursday and
Friday nights, but for the upcoming weekend, upper 40s west to upper
50s east.

The hot temperatures on Friday are expected to come close to records
for a few spots. Please refer to the Climate section below for
further information.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this
afternoon and evening. Overnight, ceilings will gradually lower
with scattered showers developing. MVFR ceilings expected at both
terminals beginning around 12z Monday morning as the showers
increase in coverage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

Here are the record highs for Friday, May 27th:

Goodland KS..........99F in 2006

McCook NE............103F in 2006

Burlington CO........96F in 2006

Hill City KS.........99F in 2006

Colby KS.............100F in 1895

Tribune KS...........100F in 2006

Yuma CO..............97F in 2012

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024


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