954
FXUS63 KGLD 221119
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
519 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of Highway 27 along a dry line. There is a
  marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of
  producing large hail and damaging winds.

- A cold front Thursday night could be accompanied by northwest
  winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph.

- For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both
  Saturday and Sunday, with some severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Zonal flow today will transition to southwest flow tonight. A
couple of weak waves will move through tonight, but CAMs have
gone dry and global models only show a few hundredths here and
there. So will go with a dry forecast today and tonight. Skies
will be mostly clear with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

An upper low will move through Wyoming during the day on
Thursday and into the Dakotas Thursday night. Surface low will
develop in the Nebraska panhandle with front to the southwest
and dry line trailing south into the forecast area. The dry line
may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon, roughly located between Highway 27 and Highway 25.
The NAMnest is particularly aggressive with that scenario, but
the HRRR less so. Along and east of the dry line the environment
will be moderately unstable with deep layer shear of 25-30 kts.
The parameters suggest some potential for severe storms with
mainly a hail and wind threat. To the west of the dry line,
elevated fire weather conditions will develop with relative
humidity dropping into the teens and southwest winds gusting
20-25 mph. The cold front will surge southward in the late
afternoon and evening hours and may be the focus for additional
convective development. There will be a few hours of gusty
northwest winds behind the front with models showing the
potential for 40-50 mph gusts. High temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 80s and lows Thursday night in the 40s.

Zonal to slight southwesterly flow continues on Friday. Another
weak shortwave moves through in the afternoon/evening but models
not doing much with it as for precipitation. Moisture will be
very limited, dew points in the 30s, with little to no
instability. Can`t discount and isolated shower or sprinkle, but
most will be dry. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s and
lows Friday night in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

At the start of the long term period, flow aloft is out of the
southwest as an upper trough extends into the western CONUS with the
low center making its way into the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave
traversing through the flow Saturday evening to Sunday morning will
allow for shower/storm chances of around 25-45%. The main system
then moves through in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, providing 20-40%
PoPs Sunday afternoon-Sunday night. Slightly cooler temperatures are
forecast for Monday before ridging builds in, giving way to clearing
skies, dry conditions, and a warming trend back to above normal
temperatures by Tuesday.

With storms over the weekend, some may become strong to severe. Of
the 2 days, Saturday afternoon-evening shows better potential with
CAPE values generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, shear to around
50-65 knots, PWATs near 3/4 inch increasing towards an inch, and mid-
level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Eastern portions currently look to be
favored. Into Sunday, expecting lesser instability; storms may still
become strong to severe, but primary hazard looks to be damaging
wind potential with inverted v soundings and DCAPE values reaching
900 J/kg or so.

For temperatures, middle 70s to middle 80s expected for highs on
Saturday-Sunday, slightly cooler in the 70s Monday, then warming
again into the upper 70s to middle 80s Tuesday. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 40s to low-mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will be light with increasing high clouds
tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...024