096
FXUS63 KGLD 211825
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1225 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible Wednesday
  afternoon and early evening east of Highway 25 and north of
  Interstate 70 with a low risk for quarter sized hail and
  damaging winds to 65 mph.


- Potentially more active pattern returns Thursday in to early
  next week with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

A surface low continues to spin across the northern Plains but is
pulling away from the region. Further west some weak ridging is seen
across the western CONUS, putting the Tri-State area into the
eastern periphery of this ridge. This is a typical pattern for some
convection for the area with any subtle wave that propagates down
the eastern portions of the ridge which is in fact the case
today. The main focus for the forecast period will be the
potential for showers and storms during the afternoon hours as
a weak wave moves towards the area off of the Cheyenne Ridge.
Dew points in the low 40s are forecast to be in place across
northeast portions of the area which at this time appears to be
the most likely location for thunderstorm development during
the early to mid afternoon hours. Am thinking the main hazards
with any storm will be damaging winds to 65 mph given very
steep lapse rates in place, very strong mid level winds around
55-75 knots and inverted v soundings in place. Weaker winds in
the boundary layer should assist in any of these strong winds
surviving to the surface. Some large hail may be possible given
very strong 0- 6 wind shear, however the CAPE is a little less
to be desired only around 500 j/kg which raises some questions
as to whether or not an updraft can root itself in the
environment or not with the very strong shear in place. The
favored area for any severe storms looks to be east of Highway
25 and north of I-70 through around 9pm CT.

High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the mid 70s across
the area as the higher 850mb temperatures continue to remain
further west underneath the weak ridging. Low temperatures for
the night are forecast in the mid 30s across western Kit Carson
and Yuma county where again some frost may be possible again low
lying areas. Winds overnight are forecast to become more ENE
and light which may lead to some localized fog across the
northeast corner of the area.

Thursday, the weak mid level ridging moves again slightly to the
east breezy southeast winds are forecast to continue as moisture
continues to stream into the area. High temperatures are again
forecast in the mid 70s across the area. Showers and storms look
to form off of the Front Range during the afternoon hours and
move to the east. These storms may be strong to potentially
severe as they move into western portions of Kit Carson and/or
Cheyenne county. As the evening goes on a low level jet develops
which may provide some additional support to keep storms
continuing eastward across the area so will continue to keep
some chances for rainfall continuing. As moisture continues to
stream into the area will need to keep an eye on some stratus or
fog into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

A potentially more active pattern may again return to the area
starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Troughing
is forecast to develop across the western CONUS. A warm front
also is forecast to set up across the central Plains as well
which with the troughing may lead to a potential for daily
showers and storms Thursday and into the start of the next week.
Any strong to severe storm threat will be dependent on how each
of these features sets up. Overall am seeing a pretty decent
signal at some easterly upslope flow which is a typical signal
for the increasing chances for rainfall. At this time, currently
thinking that Friday and Saturday may be the relative favored
time frame for severe weather to occur as a surface low develops
in eastern Colorado which is favored in numerous ensemble
member solutions and deterministic guidance which shows the
roughly the same pattern indicates plenty of shear and CAPE in
place. It is however way to far out to with confidence pin
point out any potential hazards or exact locations where the
threat may be the relative highest at. This will need to be
something to continue to monitor as we approach the next holiday
weekend.

High temperatures to start the period are currently forecast in the
upper 70s to mid 80s with the warmest day currently appearing to be
Friday. There is then decent ensemble support in the potential for
cooler air around 10 degrees below normal temperatures to move
down into the area Sunday and Monday. At this time high
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are currently
forecasted but may need to be lowered especially if cloud cover
is stronger than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1033 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR conditions are currently forecast for the duration of the
TAF period. Breezy WNW winds are currently forecast to
continue through the afternoon gusting around 25 knots, before
shifting to the ENE during the evening hours and lessening as
the nocturnal inversion sets in. Am watching a 30% chance for
isolated storms to impact KMCK with damaging winds the main
threat and lesser threat for large hail; will maintain the
PROB30 for now due to the isolated forecast nature of the
convection but a TEMPO may be needed with an AMD. Less than 10%
chance for storms to impact KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg