Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
625 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Short term forecast concerns are the potential for severe
thunderstorms across portions of the region this evening and again
on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The high amplitude pattern today flattens out some tonight as a
broad latitude short wave tops the ridge and moves east of the
Rockies and over the central and northern High Plains region. this
will turn a mostly northerly flow aloft into more of a northwest
flow pattern that will bring another short wave trough out of the
central Rockies Tuesday afternoon across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas on Tuesday evening. During this time the surface
high pressure pushes further to the east over the plains states
and a weak lee trough deepens in the vicinity of the eastern
Colorado border region. South southeast flow ahead of the surface
trough will continue to bring a Gulf moisture into the high plains
with a focus of convection migrating from along the Front Range
today to the eastern plains of Colorado on Tuesday. With good
shear profiles and instability in place across the region, expect
to see storms forming over the high terrain staying confined
mainly to the front range of Colorado late this afternoon and
evening where the possibility of severe weather remains higher
this evening. There is still a possibility of thunderstorms and
rain showers moving across the area tonight as the short wave
moves across, but the chance of those storms becoming severe will
be diminished overnight.

On Tuesday, the possibility of severe storms increases with a
scattered severe storms over the western sections during the late
afternoon and evening with isolated severe storms further east
through the evening as storms move southeast across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

A strong upper ridge will be the primary feature during this
period. The ridge axis will start the period over the Rockies,
then gradually build eastward and cover most of the southern CONUS
east of the Rockies by the end of the period. Temperatures will
warm as the ridge builds, from the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday
to the middle 90s by Monday. Precipitation chances will be tied to
any weak disturbances rotating around the periphery of the ridge,
with best chances early in the period when the axis is still to
the west, then lower chances towards the middle and end of the
period as the ridge strengthens over the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions are expected through the period.
Another weather disturbance is forecast to drop out of southeast
Wyoming and into the northwest portion of the Tri-State area
around 06z or so with a movement to the southeast through sunrise.
At this time convection looks to remain out of the KGLD vicinity
but could impact KMCK in the 09z-15z timeframe. Confidence is low
so no mention of precip at this time. Winds at KGLD generally from
the southeast to south through the period with some gustiness in
the 08z-10z timeframe and again after sunrise Tuesday. KMCK should
see a southeast wind around 10kts overnight then increase with
gusts to 25kts possible by late morning through the afternoon.




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