Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Morning fog and clouds have burned off over the past several hours.
A stalled out front remains just to the south and west of the
forecast area. Tweaked afternoon temperatures up slightly to
account for clouds burning off a little earlier than anticipated.
Conditions are expected to remain dry through this evening as an
upper level trough continues to progress eastward, out of the

With the cooler air mass in place, combined with southerly flow overnight,
left in the chance for some fog across the eastern parts of the
forecast area.

A broad high pressure system will remain over the southern part of
the nation Monday and a weak shortwave trough will move into the
area. Monday afternoon into the evening, weak convergence may be
enough to kick off an isolated shower. Confidence is low at this
time so opted to hold on PoPs for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the extended period...amplified 500 mb ridge over the central
portion of the country set to meander over the Rockies thru the
midweek period before retrograding westward towards the SW portion
of the country for the end of this week into the upcoming weekend.

Latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF do show several shortwaves working
across the northern/eastern side of the upper ridge as it treks
westward slowly thru the period.

For late Tuesday on thru Thursday...with upper ridge over the the surface high pressure sits over the Plains region
north of the CWA. A surface low and accompanying front is lying over
Kansas up into Nebraska. Depending on the set up of the
front...convection is expected to form over the area trailing south
and east into Thursday as the front/low shift in tandem with the
shift in the upper ridge. A shift to a more westerly flow is going
to allow for a few other shortwaves to remain either north or east
of the CWA and keep the area dry Thursday night into the upcoming
weekend. Any shift in the model in terms of the upper ridge axis
could bring one of the systems over the area for a chance for more

At this time for Tuesday...instability enough to warrant mention of
Marginal Risk for severe...but is confined to the northern tier
zones at this time. Any shift in either the surface ridge to the
north or the actual front could either increase the risk area for
the CWA...or lift it north of the CWA entirely. Stay tuned.

PW values will remain in the 1.00-1.50" range so as having seen over
the past several weeks...this will create the chance for locally
heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential should any storms develop.

For temps...whether the upper ridge is cresting over the CWA...or
transitioning to mainly zonal flow by the end of the
conditions are expected for a good portion of the
timeframe...tempered only by the expected precip late Tuesday into
Thursday. Daytime highs will be in the lower 90s Tuesday giving way
to the 80s Wednesday/Thursday with an upward trend into the upper
80s to lower 90s for Friday into the upcoming weekend. 60s expected
for lows with a few spot upper 50s in far NW areas.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For Kgld, vfr conditions are expected through the period at this
time. Southeast winds near 8 knots are expected until 15z. Even
though vfr conditions expected at this time, there is a
possibility of sub vfr conditions could occur between 10z to 15z
but uncertainty was too high to insert it into the forecast. Will
continue to monitor/analyze this before the next taf issuance.
From 15z to the end of the period the winds will shift to the
south at 11 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions and southeast winds near 6 knots expected
until 10z. At 10z conditions should become mvfr and look to
quickly become ifr due to a moist low level air mass and light and
variable winds. At 14z conditions should improve to mvfr with
south southeast to southeast winds near 8 knots occurring. At 18z
vfr conditions will return with south southeast winds of 10 knots




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