Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
437 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

Continuing to warm up today with highs in the mid 30s and lows
overnight in the low to mid teens. Winds will be south around 10
mph with winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph to the south.

Closed low over the Great Basin will help in generating moderate
southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. Along this flow we see a
shortwave ahead of the next system pushing across the Tri-State
area Thursday afternoon/ Thursday evening bringing in freezing
drizzle. Models are hanging onto some dryer air aloft, which will
inhibit snow development until overnight Friday, in the long term
forecast period. Temps will linger in the low 30s to upper 30s
throughout the day Thursday, so we will see a transition from
freezing drizzle to drizzle and back to freezing drizzle by
Thursday night.

There is a potential for fog / freezing fog development throughout
the evening Thursday and Thursday night with low level moisture
increasing from upslope flow from our southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

Generally speaking, the long term period will continue to see
below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Most of
the precipitation will occur early in the period with the potential
for a significant winter storm Friday night and Saturday. There
will be another chance for light snow on Monday but it will be far
less impactful.

Will start off Friday morning with the potential for freezing
drizzle and freezing fog across northern and eastern parts of the
area. Shallow low level moisture return and weak upslope flow
ahead of the approaching system will result in light QPF, only a
few hundredths at worst, but with temperatures well below freezing
it will have an impact on travel. By mid day Friday, temperatures
should get above freezing and improve the situation.

Stronger system will begin to impact the area Friday night. Models
in fairly good agreement lending some more confidence to the
forecast. Shortwave trough will eject out of the Four Corners with
a closed upper low tracking from southwest Kansas to southeast
Nebraska Friday night and Saturday. This is a good track to bring
moderate to heavy snow and very windy conditions to the Tri State
area. There is the potential for widespread snow amounts in the 3
to 6 inch range with locally heavier amounts up to 10 inches
possible. In addition to the snow, as the surface low deepens
expecting very strong northwest winds to accompany the snow. It
looks like a classic set up for a blizzard in the central High
Plains. Will not hoist a watch at this time only because it is
still beyond the typical watch time frame, but will ramp up
wording elsewhere.

Winter storm should wind down Saturday afternoon and evening, with
perhaps some patchy blowing snow on the backside through about

Remainder of the long term period will be relatively quiet, if
cold, with only the low chances for light snow on Monday with a
weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft. Less than an inch is
expected at this time. Really see no chance for temperatures
returning to normal until late next week when the western ridge
finally starts to build across the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 432 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

The forecast has been kept as VFR at both terminals throughout the
forecast period although there indicates some potential for sub-
VFR ceilings advecting in between 12Z-15Z with the southeasterly
wind flow. There may even be intermittent periods of slightly
reduced visibility from mist in association with the low-level
moisture present during hours of radiational cooling.




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