Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1054 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

Issued at 719 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

Update issued to account for the increasing mid clouds over
western portions of the CWA, and the back edge of the exiting
system east. No other changes at this time, but will monitor temps
over the next couple hours to see if clouds affecting forecasted


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 156 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

Visible satellite shows a few fair weather cumulus popping up across
a couple of counties in the area. Clouds are more expansive just
to the east of the area where a cold front is currently draped
across Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. With a closed
low over Eastern Nebraska and a tight gradient over the Tri-State
area this afternoon, winds will remain gusty. North-northwesterly
winds will range from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. High
temperatures will be in the 40s. Overnight lows will be in the
upper teens to mid 20s.

A ridge over the Western CONUS will nose into the Central High
Plains on Friday with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State
area. Conditions are expected to remain dry through the day.
Temperatures will range from the low 40s toward Norton to the low
50s from Yuma to Russell Springs and westward. Temperatures were
lowered a little in the eastern part of the CWA over concerns that
the ridge would not make it as far into the area as previously
thought. Conditions will remain dry through Saturday morning with
low temperatures in the lot to mid-20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

Saturday through Monday...upper ridge will migrate from the Great
Basin to the central plains, resulting in a period of dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. High temperatures will
be in the 50s and lows in the 20s. Breezy northwest winds possible
Saturday afternoon in western areas behind a shortwave trough
moving through the northwest flow ahead of the ridge axis, light
winds on Sunday, then increasing northerly winds on Monday as the
next upper low begins to develop over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle

Monday night through Wednesday. Aforementioned shortwave digging
through the Rockies will develop a cut off low to our south by
late Monday. It will bring a chance for rain and snow to the area
beginning Monday night through Tuesday. ECMWF has the best
continuity with this system and is the preferred solution. It
shows rain changing to snow Monday night, then winding down
Tuesday morning with light rain and snow. Total snow amounts are
in the 1 to 3 inch range during that time period. GFS has similar
timing but lower amounts of rain and snow. GFS also has a second
shortwave coming through on Wednesday with a quick shot of light
rain and snow, but that feature is missing in the ECMWF which is
dry after Tuesday. All in all, best confidence is in the light
rain and snow occurring Monday night and early Tuesday, with
perhaps advisory level snow amounts of up to 3 inches in central
and western parts of the forecast area. Do not see much wind with
either of these systems, with the first too far south and the
second too weak. Temperatures really do not drop that much during
this time period, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s, still
near or slightly above normal.

By Thursday, will be back under northwest flow ahead of a large
ridge rebuilding over the western CONUS. Dry conditions and
slightly above normal temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1054 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

mainly vfr conditions for both terminals with scattered high
clouds. kmck could see bkn015 from around 08z-10z.

winds for kgld, nw 5-10kts thru 11z then wnw. by 22z friday, nnw
around 5-10kts.

winds for kmck, wnw 5-10kts thru 19z friday, then lighht/variable.




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