034
FXUS63 KGLD 051103
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
403 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued the morning for parts of
  the area. Visibilities may drop to 1/4 mile and slick patches
  may form from freezing fog.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Kit Carson and Cheyenne
  counties in CO and Greeley county in Kansas. Dry and breezy
  conditions may lead to rapid fire growth

- A few storms could develop late this afternoon into the
  overnight hours, mainly along and east of Highway 83. A severe
  thunderstorm capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

This morning, our next 850 mb low coming out of the Rockies.
Combined with the exiting ridge, moist southerly advection into the
High Plains is occurring and will increase throughout the late
morning. As of 10Z, we`re seeing some fog move into the area.
REFS 25th seems to be handling this the best so far. This shows
the fog entering the southeastern counties, and potentially into
the central CWA. Higher confidence exits for the southeastern
counties, so a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for this area
until 17Z.

Today is shaping up to be an interesting and potentially
hazardous day. The moisture advection is forecast to remain out
of Colorado, creating a dryline somewhere between KS highway 25
and 27. Temperatures during the day are expected to climb into
the mid 70s across the entire area.

We`ll cover the dry sector first. RH values will tank in the dry
sector, especially in Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Greeley counties
where RH values will drop into the low teens. For eastern Colorado,
occasional gusts around 23 kts are expected. Greeley county is
forecast to see winds around 30 kts as the dryline will be nearby.
We`ve gone ahead and upgraded these counties to a Red Flag Warning,
and Sherman and Wallace have been dropped from the Fire Weather
Watch because the critical winds and RH do not look to occur at the
same time or place.

On the moist side of the dryline, RH values are forecast to remain
above 20-40% as southerly winds gust up around 25-35 kts. While
there is effectively no risk of fire weather concerns, there is a 5%
chance of plumes of blowing dust. The dust threat is very limited
because areas in the eastern and southeastern CWA, which are
forecast to see the strongest winds, are also forecast to have lapse
rates that do not support dust lofting. Any dust that gets blown
would likely be confined to source regions (i.e. bare fields).

There is also a threat of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon
and evening. Most CAMs are showing the vast majority of the
convection will remain southeast of the CWA. This seems to be
largely based on a lack of good forcing. However, there is still a
30-50% chance we`ll have enough forcing from the incoming 500 mb
trough and the dryline that will cause convection to initiate in the
northeastern CWA between 22-3Z. 0-6Z would be the most likely time
severe convection occurs. The first wave of convection will likely
be exiting the area around 7-12Z as a cold front enters the area
from the north-northwest. This could front will bring in additional
precipitation, but with no severe potential. This wave of
precipitation looks to linger until Friday evening.

As far as potential hazards go from the first wave of convection,
hail is the main threat, with winds as a secondary, and flooding is
a minor concern, but we cannot rule out a brief tornado threat. RAP,
NAM, NAMNest, and REFS sounding are fairly similar, mainly differing
in what the low level moisture and temperatures will be, but we`ll
be focusing on REFS soundings as they`s a good middle ground. Around
Norton, KS at 3Z, there is a 750 mb cap, creating about -50 J/kg of
surface CIN. However, MLCAPE sits around 200 J/kg with CIN around -
200, and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and CIN of -120. This certainly
lowers the potential for storms to form, but if storms can fire,
they would likely be elevated storms, with a slim chance for a storm
to be close to the surface. Shear is in ample supply. EBWD, 0-1, and
0-3 km shear around 30-40 kts.

With all those parameters in mind, hail, if it does form, would
likely be in the 0.75-1 inch range, but could be up to 1.5 inches.
The wind threat is not great for dry or wet microbursts, and is only
slightly better for a QLCS threat. Either way, most likely wind
threat will be in the 30-45 kts range, with a maximum potential up
to 50 kts. The flooding risk would really only occur if high
precipitation cells are able to train over a location for 2+ hours,
which has a 5% chance of occurring. As far as the tornado threat,
while the numerical parameters are being met for a tornado, the low
level lapse rates keeps a lid on this threat. As it stands, there is
roughly a 5-15% chance of a severe thunderstorm occurring in the CWA
later today.

The second wave of precipitation will last throughout most of the
day Friday, and will mainly fall as rain. In eastern Colorado, there
is a 20% chance some snow or a brief wintry mix occurs around
sunrise. The bulk of the precipitation will occur along and north of
I-70 and will be exiting the CWA around 0Z Friday evening.

Winds behind the cold front will be fairly strong, with northerly
gusts around 30-40 kts possible in eastern Colorado. Temperatures
will stay fairly cool tomorrow. In the northwestern CWA, highs will
struggle to get out of the 30s, but for the southern and
southeastern CWA, temperatures will warm to around 60.

Friday night, as the 500 mb low exits, a weak ridge will build in.
This will allow the sky to start clearing out and allow temperatures
to drop into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Saturday, we remain in a southwest upper level flow with a
developing low off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures cool
in the wake of a cold frontal passage with highs in the 50s and lows
in the 20s to 30s. Southwest winds are forecast to be mild overall,
but gusts around 20 mph are possible Saturday afternoon for our
Colorado counties. Relative humidity (RH) values are in the upper
teens to 20s for the county warning area (CWA). Even if southwest
winds further lower RH values, mild winds will likely remain the
limiting factor for fire weather concerns. NBM 75th percentile for
10m winds are around 25 mph, so critical fire weather conditions are
not expected at this time.

A warming trend begins Sunday with high temperatures forecast in the
60s to 70s. Winds aloft are forecast to be relatively weak through
the column and no jet streak is overhead of our region. This
supports mild southwest winds for a majority of the CWA with gusts
around 15 mph possible. Yuma county is the exception with westerly
downsloping winds gusting around 25 mph forecast. RH values are
forecast in the teens for the entire CWA, so Yuma county will likely
have a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday
afternoon.

Conditions warm further Monday with highs forecast in the 70s as our
region is under a mostly zonal flow with the previously mentioned
low over Baja California. RH values remain in the teens for the CWA,
but winds remain fairly mild for the region. Gusts are forecast
around 20 mph. If our upper level flow becomes more active or
the low over Baja California changes track, we could see higher
winds increasing concerns for fire weather conditions.

Tuesday, conditions cool in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Highs are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. RH values begin to recover
from our persistent southwest/west winds. RH values are forecast in
the high teens to 20s. Winds gusts from 20-35 mph are possible, so
fire weather conditions could be a concern if RH values do not
recover as much as forecast. RH values may also end up lower than
currently forecast if little to no precipitation occurs from
last week`s system.

Another cold front is forecast to pass through the region
Tuesday after into Wednesday. We see an uptick in Probability of
Precipitation (PoPs) overnight as well. PoPs are around 40-50%
for the CWA with rain or a wintry mix after sundown forecast.
Thunderstorms may not be out of the question due to the ECMWF
showing MUCAPE over our area. Precipitation chances taper off
Wednesday morning with PoPs decreasing to below 15% by the
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s in the wake
of the cold frontal passage. Fire weather could be a concern if
precipitation does not occur for our area due to RH values in
the upper teens and wind gusts from 20-40 mph possible.

Thursday is beginning to show signs of a higher impact weather day.
Models are showing southwest/west winds with gusts up to 45 mph
possible, elevated Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values, and RH
values in the teens. These will likely change with this being the
end of the forecast period, but something to monitor as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail at KGLD until around 4Z.
There is a chance KGLD will see MVFR visibilities in fog 13-15Z.
Around 4Z, ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR and remain
there the rest of the period. KMCK is forecast to remain VFR
until around 1Z when ceilings will lower as the potential for
storms increases.

LLWS at both locations from the south at 40 kts at 400-600 feet
AGL will continue for the next few hours, until the winds start
mixing to the surface and gusts of 20-30 kts are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for
     KSZ041.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ004-015-
     016-028-029-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for
     COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA