Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021

Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Rockies and
High Plains in this period -- between an amplifying upper level
ridge over the GOMEX and Southeast US.. and a persistent upper
level ridge along and just offshore the Pacific coast.

Today-Tonight: Challenging forecast. Potent shortwave energy
progressing eastward across WY this morning will amplify into a
compact upper low that tracks slowly east invof the NE/SD border
this afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, small amplitude shortwave
energy presently situated invof southwest UT will lift rapidly
northeast through CO (late this morning) into NE (this afternoon).
A weak lee cyclone will develop in southeast CO and southwest KS
this morning as the progressive wave approaches from the west..
shifting into central KS this afternoon as the progressive wave
lifts northeast into NE and subsidence /sfc pressure rises/ ensue
in the lee of the Rockies. Dry conditions will persist through
tonight across the Tri-State area.. with precipitation confined
well to the north.. in closer proximity to the slower albeit
stronger/amplifying wave progressing east invof the SD/NE border.
Initially E-SE winds will shift to the S by mid-morning, to the
WSW-WNW late this morning and early this afternoon, then abruptly
to the NW during the mid-late afternoon as a weak cold front
surges southeast through the Tri-State area. A short period of
strong WSW-WNW winds are possible in advance of the front in
northwest Kansas.. where deep vertical mixing may transport
stronger flow/momentum aloft toward the surface. Expect highs
ranging from the mid 40s in northeast CO to the lower-mid 60s in
southeast portions of the area (Leoti-Gove City-Hill City).. with
overnight lows in the upper teens to lower-mid 20s.

Sun-Sun night: Cold advection.. associated with ongoing
subsidence /pressure rises/ on the western periphery of the upper
wave progressing east along the SD/NE border.. will abate by late
morning. With a cooler airmass in place over the region, expect
highs ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s (eastern CO) to upper
40s (south and east of Goodland), with overnight lows in the
mid/upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021

Will start the period under upper ridging with a weak cut off low
passing to the south which will not impact the area. Zonal and
southwesterly flow will follow through mid week with continued dry
and mild conditions. Relative humidity will drop into the teens
each of these days, though wind speeds appear to fall short of
meeting critical fire weather criteria. For the end of the week,
still significant model differences on the next upper low coming
out of the southwest. However, ECMWF starting to look more like
the GFS which is now also showing a deep cut off system traversing
the southern plains for the end of the week. Temperatures appear
warm enough for rain rather than snow, but confidence remains
rather low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021

VFR conditions are anticipated to rule through the TAF period at
both terminals.

GLD: Initially light/variable winds will shift to the SW-WSW at
10-15 knots by mid-late morning, veering to the WSW-W and
increasing to 20-30 knots by late-morning to early-afternoon
(~18Z). Sporadic higher gusts (35-45 kt) cannot be ruled out
between 18-20Z. Winds will abruptly shift to the NW at 20-30 knots
during the mid-late afternoon (~21Z), decreasing to 10-15 knots
around or shortly after sunset this evening.

MCK: Initially light/variable winds will shift to the E-ESE at
10 knots by mid-late morning, possibly shifting to the S or
becoming light/variable ~18Z.. then shifting to the W-NW and
increasing to 15-25 knots during the early-to-mid afternoon
(20-21Z). WNW-NW winds will decrease to ~10 knots around or
shortly after sunset this evening.


Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Feb 27 2021

In coordination with WFO`s PUB/DDC/GID.. the Fire Weather Watch
for this afternoon has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and
now includes Graham county, KS. The worst conditions are
anticipated to occur between 12-3 pm MST / 1-4 pm CST.. when WSW-
WNW winds are anticipated to reach 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
amidst relative humidity values as low as 10-20%. There is
relatively high confidence that the worst overall conditions will
be confined to the warning area. There is below average confidence
with regard to specifics (i.e. minimum RHs and maximum winds)
within the warning area. Temperatures will fall /RHs rise/ from
NW-SE this afternoon as winds abruptly shift to the NW in the wake
of a weak cold frontal passage. The magnitude/extent/duration of
critical fire weather conditions will highly depend upon the
precise timing of the aforementioned frontal passage -- which
remains somewhat uncertain.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ254.



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