Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 232312
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Latest upper air analysis shows southwest flow over the west half of
the CONUS.  Within the flow a combination of cloud cover and smoke
was seen.  The smoke was over northeast Colorado, but is not
impacting visibility.  The very dry air over the Central Plains will
prevent any clouds from moving very far off the higher terrain.  At
the surface the trough remained over Eastern Colorado, with breezy
winds to the east.

For the rest of the afternoon the south winds will gust to around 30
MPH along and east of the Colorado border where mixed layer winds
are stronger.  There will be an overlap of relative humidity values
of 15% and wind gusts up to 30 MPH along the Highway 385 corridor.
This area is too narrow to warrant a warning but have issued other
products to address the concern for rapid fire growth.

This evening the winds will decline some, but still remain breezy,
and relative humidity will increase.  The breezy winds will persist
into the overnight hours then become light and turn to the west
ahead of an approaching cold front.  The front will begin to move
into the forecast area from the northwest a couple hours before
sunrise.

Monday morning the cold front will move through the rest of the
forecast area.  Current data indicates the bulk of the cooler air
will only extend over the northern half of the forecast area.  This
will cause highs to be warmer over the southern half of the forecast
area, but cooler than today.

Monday afternoon a weak upper level short wave trough will move over
East Central Colorado.  Looking at the soundings am not too
impressed with the potential for rain to make it to the ground given
the large dew point depressions.  Consensus of near term data
indicates a low chance for rainfall.  Can`t rule this out so
included a small chance for rainfall in the afternoon.  DCAPE, CAPE,
and ML CAPE are all small, so despite the 50kts of deep layer shear,
am not concerned for any severe thunderstorms or damaging winds to
develop.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Monday night through Tuesday night...forecast area is in the
base of a rather large trough. At the surface east to northeast
winds Monday night back to the north and increase a bit around
sunrise Tuesday morning. Low level cloudiness (stratus) is expected
to move in from the northeast covering much of the area. Some fog is
also possible. Above the stratus will be a weather disturbance per
700-300mb moisture that moves southeast across the area producing a
few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Low temperatures
in the upper 40s west to mid 50s east.

For Tuesday stratus, fog and maybe some drizzle in the morning
quickly dissipate late morning with a sunny to mostly sunny sky in
the afternoon. Breezy to perhaps windy north winds expected during
the morning, slowly decreasing during the afternoon. High
temperatures int he mid 60s to around 70.

Surface high pressure moves over the eastern portion of the forecast
area Tuesday night leading to light winds while to the west return
flow bringing south winds. Another weather disturbance per 700-300mb
moisture moves into the area generally after midnight possibly
supporting a few rain showers. Per coordination with surrounding
offices will be lowering mins from previous forecast given low
dewpoints, light winds under sfc high and little cloudiness. First
guess is for lows ranging from the upper 30s to around 40 across the
northeast corner of the area to the mid 40s across the southwest and
southern parts of the area.

Wednesday...breezy to perhaps windy south winds are expected during
the day across the western 1/2 of the area as the pressure gradient
increases between departing high pressure to our east and low
pressure along the front range. May see a morning shower or two east
of the CO/KS border and along/north of the interstate in the morning
as Tuesday nights weather disturbance moves east. This should be out
of the area by late in the afternoon with a clear to mostly clear
sky overnight. High temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Thursday through Sunday...forecast area under northwest flow aloft
Thursday and Friday then backing to the west and southwest Saturday
and Sunday ahead of a weather disturbance that reaches the area by
the day (Sunday).

There could be a few rain showers across the extreme eastern portion
of the forecast area Friday morning as some moisture in the 850-
700mb layer moves up from the southwest. This area may have another
chance at light precipitation Friday night through Saturday
morning. The remainder of the extended period should be dry.

High temperatures slowly warm each day starting with the upper 60s
to low 70s Thursday, reaching the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Low
temperatures generally in the mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Low
level wind shear may develop at either terminal overnight as
surface winds decouple and low level jet develops. A cold front
will move through the terminals Monday morning resulting in
surface winds shifting from south to northwest, gusty at times for
a few hours behind frontal passage.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024


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