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000
FXUS62 KJAX 250733
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
333 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

...NEAR RECORD HEAT AND DRY WEATHER THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM.Today and Tonight...

Early morning smoke/fog produced by wild fires may be present
early this morning along and near the I-10 corridor, but should
lift as conditions warm shortly after sunrise.Otherwise, high
pressure ridging over the region will result in high temperatures,
dry weather conditions, and mostly clear skies for the first day
of the Memorial Day weekend. Outside of a minuscule chance for
showers to develop with the afternoon and evening sea breeze over
inland areas, no convection is anticipated for today. High
temperatures for the day are expected to be in the upper 90s and
possibly reach 100 degrees for inland areas today, with coastal
areas rising into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight low temperatures
will drop into the upper 60s and low 70s.

.SHORT TERM...Sun through Tue...

Synopsis...Dangerously hot and continued dry. Smoke from wildfire
activity will be thickest at night/early morning.

Hot and continued dry as deep layer ridge lingers over the local
area. Surface high pressure will extend over north Florida Sun,
then edge south with an axis across north-central FL Mon & Tue as
a weak surface trough becomes diffuse over southern GA. Aloft, a
strong and persistent 500 mb ridge center will dominate and
suppress convective growth other than some diurnally driven cumulus
clouds along and inland of daily sea breezes. Latest 00z model
guidance suggested surface trough and sea breezes merging Sun
afternoon/early evening across SE GA and then Mon/Tue across NE FL
triggering a few spotty showers. Trended with < 14% rain chances
given persistent subsidence and weak moisture return.

The main weather story this period will be record heat as high
temperatures warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s, with a warming
trend by a couple degrees each day. Despite the record breaking
high temperatures, heat index values this period will range
between 100-105 deg inland, just shy of Heat Advisory criteria
(heat advisory issued when heat index is 108-112 deg F). Low
temperatures will range generally from the upper 60s to low/mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...Wed through Sat...

Synopsis...Hot and dry conditions continue, with just a tease of
rainfall potential late in the week.

Pattern shift begins as the persistent mid level 500 mb ridge
centered over the deep SE region begins to weaken and shifts pf
the FL peninsula as upper flow transitions to zonal. At the
surface, the low level ridge axis will lift back northward up the
FL peninsula, and shift the weak surface trough across south GA
back north Wed-Thu continuing dry conditions. After an extended
period of the 1000-500 mb mean layer ridge anchored over the local
area, Fri into the weekend, this ridge center will shift offshore
of the FL Atlantic coast with the axis sliding south across the
south-central FL peninsula. This pattern will finally begin to
bring a more moist SW steering flow across the local area, with an
influx of tropical moisture from the south and GOMEX. Although
frontal systems will remain north of the area, the influx of
deeper moisture combined with active sea breezes will bring better
potential for measurable rainfall from diurnally driven showers
Fri and Sat.

Temperatures will continue well above normal values with highs in
the mid/upper 90s inland to upper 80s/low 90s coast. Low
temperatures will range in the low/mid 70s to upper 60s in
normally cooler locales.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for most areas, with the exception of
JAX and VQQ which may experience reduced visibilities due to
lingering smoke/fog from a regional fire in the early morning
hours. Initially light winds out of the SW will shift about to out
of the E for Florida sites as the sea breeze moves through,
reaching speeds of up to 10 knots with gusts of 15 knots.


&&

.MARINE...

High pressure conditions are expected to persist over the weekend
and into next week, with predominantly southern winds over coastal
and offshore waters. Sea breeze winds will develop in the
afternoon along the coastline becoming light overnight. Exercise
Caution conditions not anticipated for near or offshore waters
until after the end of Memorial Day Weekend as the system of high
pressure moves slightly to the south.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for northeast Florida


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated concern for wildfire outbreaks this holiday weekend due
to increased outdoor activity including fireworks, camp fires,
cigarettes and cookouts.

An extended period of hot and dry weather through early June will
continue elevated fire danger, despite not meeting locally defined
"Red Flag" criteria. Temperatures will warm into the upper 90s to
mid 100s inland each day with afternoon humidity ranging between
25-35%. Winds will be mainly local terrain influenced, with daily
sea breezes, river breezes and lake breezes. Gusts 14-18 mph will
be possible as the east coast sea breezes develops and presses
inland each afternoon. Dense smoke advisories will likely continue
through the weekend associated with the Yellow Bluff Wildfire in
north-central Duval/south-central Nassau counties.


&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs at climate sites for Memorial Day weekend & early next week:

                    Sat 5/25  Sun 5/26  Mon 5/27  Tue 5/28
                    ---------------------------------------
Jacksonville        99(1953)  99(1953)  98(1989)  99(1967)
Gainesville         98(2011)  100(1953) 100(1953) 99(1953)
Alma, GA            99(1962)  99(1962)  99(1967) 100(1967)
St. Simons Island   96(1953)  100(1953) 96(2006)  97(1964)

All-Time Record Max Temps for the Month of May...
JAX 100/05-13-1967
GNV 101/05-31-1945
AMG 100/05-28-1967
SSI 100/05-26-1953


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  72  99  70 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  89  75  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  94  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  88  70  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  96  68  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  94  68  96  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Baker-
     Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Corless/Enyedi/