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000
FXUS62 KJAX 301912
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
312 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.Short Term.../through Sunday/...

An inverted surface trough will be off the FL coast this afternoon
and evening, then lift to east of SE GA overnight into Friday
morning. A 500mb short wave will be located over this trough. The
presence of this troughing will continue to produce showers with
embedded thunderstorms.

For this afternoon and evening, the greatest chance for activity
will be near the coast near the trough, and well inland as the east
coast sea breeze pushes inland toward the I75 corridor. The slow
movement of the activity will lead to periods of heavy rainfall.
With the trough along the coast, the chance for showers and storms
near the coast will persist through Tonight.

Another active convective day is expected on Friday, given the
proximity of the trough along with diurnal heating. As the trough
moves off to the northeast Friday afternoon and evening the chances
will slowly decrease from west to east.

High pressure will build to the east northeast Saturday. Moisture
will increase across the region through the day, as the gulf and
east coast sea breezes converge over the central part of the area
during the afternoon. This convergence along with diurnal heating,
and lingering upper short wave energy will yield an increase in
convection in the afternoon.

The high will build more to the east on Sunday, with best
convergence focused inland.

Due to expected convective coverage this period, afternoon highs
will trend a little below normal, while lows will be near normal.

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Thursday/...

High pressure will be centered to the east of the region this
period, with ridge extending west across area. Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours due to diurnal heating, and sea breeze interactions.
Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday, with a
weak coastal trough slowly lifting north across area. The high will
be east northeast of the area Saturday, then more toward the east
Sunday. The high will then be to the east through mid week.

Rip Currents:  SE GA: Moderate through Friday
               NE FL: Moderate through Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  87  71  87  71 /  30  60  40  70  20
SSI  76  84  75  85  76 /  70  80  60  70  40
JAX  73  88  72  88  73 /  50  80  50  80  30
SGJ  74  87  75  88  75 /  50  50  50  70  30
GNV  71  90  72  89  72 /  60  60  40  80  30
OCF  72  90  72  89  73 /  60  70  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&