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000
FXUS62 KJAX 200157
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
957 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.UPDATE...

Strong pressure gradient remains due to 1030 mb high over the Mid
Atlantic area and lower pressure across the FL straits to the
Bahamas. Northeast flow continues strong but now confined to the
beach areas with sustained winds 15-25 mph and a few gusts around
35 mph. Strongest winds are along the northeast FL coast with
speeds several mph lower along the GA coast. Will allow wind advy
to expire. Coastal convergence and weak upper support continues
to support chance showers for areas southeast of a line from
Mayport to Palatka and over the northeast FL coastal waters. Over
the next 12 hours, showers will begin to shift further south and
east as drier advects in from the north as mean low level flow
begins to become more northerly Wednesday morning, helping to
weaken the convergence. Other than tweaks to the lows tonight that
will be in the 40s over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley and 50s elsewhere, little change to the current public
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail though CIGs at terminals near or above
4000 ft into Wed morning. Improved skies expected Wed aftn as
drier air filters into the region. Winds will continue to diminish
overnight, except at KSGJ where north-northeast winds near 15-20
kt with gusts to near 25-30 kt are possible. Much lower wind
speeds on Wed. A few showers will be near KSGJ over the next few
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SCA conditions for area waters expected rest of tonight.
Little change to the forecast except some tweaks to up the winds
and seas for tonight-Wed based on obs. High surf advy and high
risk of rip currents will continue with the strong north-northeast
flow.

For coastal flood conditions, all the coastal observing tide
stations have reached between the action to just below minor
flood categories with the evening high tide. The higher
astronomical tide is Wed morning and extra-tropical surge guidance
(anomaly) will be near 1 to 1.5 feet so the coastal advy looks
good at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  43  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  64  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  52  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  66  51  72 /  30  10   0   0
GNV  52  71  47  73 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  53  72  48  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/McGinnis