812
FXUS62 KJAX 270155
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
955 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INLAND ON THURSDAY...
...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Late evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1026
millibars) building southward from the Ohio Valley through the
southern Appalachians. Aloft...deep troughing prevails from the
Great Lakes eastward across New England and the Mid-Atlantic
states, with this feature creating deep and dry northwesterly flow
across our area. Meanwhile, shortwave troughing was progressing
slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest, with this system
developing widespread convection across Deep South Texas, with a
thick cirrus shield emanating eastward from this convective mass
along the northern Gulf coast region. Fair skies prevail locally,
with decoupling winds this evening allowing for temperatures to
fall through the 50s and lower 60s across our region. Dewpoints at
02Z were mostly in the 40s and 50s.

High pressure building towards the southern Appalachians will
begin to wedge down the southeastern seaboard after midnight
tonight, resulting in a slowly tightening local pressure gradient
from north to south during the predawn hours. This weather pattern
will develop northerly winds before sunrise at most locations,
with speeds gradually increasing to around 10 mph at sunrise along
area beaches and around 5 mph inland. Radiational cooling through
the overnight hours will allow temperatures to fall to the upper
40s to around 50 at most inland locations, with low to mid 50s at
coastal locations. Temperatures may begin to rise by a few degrees
towards sunrise as winds begin to slowly increase, especially at
coastal locations. Otherwise, thick cirrostratus should remain
mostly to the west of our area overnight, but thin cirrus cloud
cover should increase during the predawn and early morning hours.
Patchy fog will be possible towards sunrise across north central
FL, where the local pressure gradient will likely not tighten much
until around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Warm and dry conditions expected through Friday. High pressure
over the Carolinas shifts into the Atlantic on Thursday as the dry
airmass remains over the region. Breezy east-northeasterly winds
develop Thursday afternoon along the I-95 corridor in the wake of
the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland. The onshore flow will
create an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from
the low/mid 70s along the coast to the upper 70s/low 80s inland.
High pressure shifts further into the Atlantic on Friday
developing warm southeasterly flow. Low level moisture gradually
begins to return in the continued onshore flow. Above seasonable
temperatures continue with highs in the mid/upper 70s along the
coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
Thursday night and then increase into upper 50s/mid 60s Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Warm, moist south-southwesterly flow dominates the weekend with
the region in between high pressure centered over Bermuda and low
pressure in the lower Plains. Meanwhile, a southern stream
shortwave aloft progresses across the northern Gulf coast and
across the area Saturday into Sunday. The airmass over the region
recovers with precipitable Water (PWAT) values moistening into the
1.3-1.6 inch range and dewpoints rising into the 60s. Scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms spread across the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Best chances for thunderstorms will be along
the I-95 corridor Sunday afternoon due to a potential sea breeze
collision enhanced by the passing shortwaves aloft. Then, a
surface low pressure and associated cold front sweep through the
SE US early next week. The local environment further destabilizes
in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. This stronger system
could support a few strong to severe storms in our area. SPC has
highlighted SE GA and much of NE FL with a 15% risk area for
severe weather on Monday/Monday night. There is still uncertainty
with this next frontal system`s timing and whether the boundary
stalls over NE FL or shifts southward on Tuesday. Above seasonable
temperatures continue with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Periods of
MVFR visibilities will be possible during the predawn hours on
Thursday at VQQ. Surface winds will diminish towards 02Z. North-
northwesterly surface winds will develop during the predawn hours
at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, while light northerly
surface winds develop at the inland terminals towards 12Z. Surface
winds will then shift to northeasterly by 14Z, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty at the regional terminals by
15Z. Northeasterly surface winds will then diminish after 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

High pressure building over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
evening will push southeastward overnight, moving offshore of the
Carolina coast by Thursday evening. This feature will briefly
wedge down the southeastern seaboard late tonight and Thursday,
resulting in northerly winds gradually strengthening during the
predawn hours across our local waters, followed by winds shifting
to northeasterly and remaining breezy on Thursday. Seas around 2
feet tonight will build to 3-4 feet throughout our local waters on
Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure center will then
shift further offshore on Thursday night and Friday, becoming
anchored near Bermuda this weekend. Winds will shift to easterly
on Thursday night and then southeasterly from Friday through
Saturday, with Caution level winds and seas expected offshore on
Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak warm front will cross
our area from west to east on Sunday, bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms to our area. A cold front will then enter the
southeastern states on Monday, allowing for winds to shift to
southwesterly throughout our local waters. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage from Monday
afternoon through at least early Tuesday morning.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds will create a moderate rip
current risk at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday.
Persistent onshore winds and increasingly rough surf conditions
will likely result in a high rip current risk this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

A very dry air mass will persist at inland locations, or for areas
west of the I-95 corridor, on Thursday, with long durations of
critically low relative humidity values forecast throughout the
afternoon hours. Meanwhile, northeasterly surface and transport
winds will strengthen during the morning hours at coastal
locations, with these breezy conditions then spreading inland
across north central FL during the afternoon hours. These breezy
conditions will create marginally high daytime dispersion values
across north central FL on Thursday afternoon, with good values
expected elsewhere across inland portions of northeast FL and the
Suwannee Valley. Lighter surface and transport speeds will yield
fair daytime dispersion values for most of inland southeast GA.
Breezy southeasterly transport winds will then overspread our area
on Friday, keeping minimum relative humidity values above critical
thresholds area-wide. However, these breezy conditions will create
high daytime dispersion values nearly area-wide, with very high
values possible across north central FL. Similar conditions are
forecast on Saturday as transport winds shift slightly to south-
southeasterly and remain breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  71  58  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  52  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  55  75  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  52  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  53  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$