Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 202337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

[Through 00Z Tuesday]

Last convection of the evening is along a line from Saint Augustine
to Archer and will pass just south of both KGNV and KSGJ. Thus
will keep VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours at both stations. A
BKN mid to upper deck and synoptic SW to WSW flow, around our
tropical system, will inhibit fog and low ceiling development
overnight. A synoptic SWrly fetch will bring in tropical moisture
tomorrow and thus we should see another round of convection coming
in from off the Gulf between 18-22 utc and lasting until 22/00-02



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Bands of showers and storms continue to cross the area producing
heavy rain and gusty winds as Tropical Depression Claudette moves
north of the area headed towards the Carolinas. So far today,
activity has focused over Northeast Florida, but activity is
expected to wane over Florida in the next few hours and pick up
over Southeast Georgia this evening. Storms that form later this
afternoon and evening have the potential to be severe. There is a
Slight Risk over most of Southeast Georgia and a Marginal Risk
over much of Northeast Florida. Strong storms may produce gusty
winds, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Showers and storms are expected to decrease across the area
through midnight tonight due to increased subsidence. Overnight
we will be mostly dry with low temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Claudette will move northeast of the area on Monday and exit into
the Western Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina while moving
northeastward. High pressure will be to the southeast, and
southwesterly flow will continue. Scattered shower and storm
chances will persist throughout the daytime hours, peaking in the
afternoon with expected sea breeze activity. The Gulf Coast sea
breeze is expected to be dominant with southwesterly flow keeping
the Atlantic sea breeze close to the coast. Temperatures on
Monday will be warmer than Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Precipitation chances will decrease Monday night and
overnight lows will be in the low-to-mid 70s.

Tuesday we will be between high pressure to the southeast and a
trough to the northwest, which will continue prevailing
southwesterly flow. Precipitation chances will return during
daytime heating hours and peak in the afternoon and evening with
the development of the Gulf Coast sea breeze. Upper level
troughing will aid in storm development with increased instability
across the area, which is expected to make Tuesday a more active
convective day than Monday. Tuesday night precipitation chances
will decrease and lows will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The trough will move over the area while weakening Wednesday,
which will continue increased convective activity during the day
on Wednesday. A frontal boundary is expected to approach the area
from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday, stall over the area
late in the week, then dissipate next weekend. Daily shower and
storm chances will continue with the highest chances in the
afternoon and evening with sea breeze development each day.
Prevailing southwesterly flow will shift to southeasterly Thursday
through the end of the period, which will switch the dominant sea
breeze from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures
will trend near normal through the long term period.


Tropical Depression Claudette will move to the northeast towards
the Carolinas tonight and exit into the Western Atlantic off the
North Carolina coast on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Southeast Georgia waters through 5 AM Monday due to
southwesterly winds around 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Small
Craft should Exercise Caution in all area waters tonight due to
elevated winds 15-20 kts and waves 3-6 ft. High pressure will
shift to the southeast and a trough will approach from the
northwest through mid-week, which will continue prevailing
southwesterly winds. A weakening frontal boundary is expected to
approach the area mid-week and stall over the area waters late in
the week, which will cause winds to become southeasterly.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
today, decreasing to low risk on Monday.


Precipitation chances decrease tonight as Tropical Depression
Claudette moves towards the Carolinas, strong to severe storms
may still be possible this evening. The area will be between high
pressure to the southeast and a trough to the northwest, which
will continue southwesterly flow through mid-week. Showers and
storms will be possible each day this week with highest chances
in the afternoons/evenings with the sea breeze. The trough will
move overhead while weakening Tuesday into Wednesday, which will
increase storm potential on these days. Weaker transport winds
will result in patches of low dispersions near Marion county
Monday and area-wide on Tuesday.



AMG  72  89  72  83  70 /  70  50  50  70  30
SSI  77  90  77  85  74 /  40  40  30  60  30
JAX  74  90  74  88  72 /  10  50  40  70  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87  73 /  10  40  30  60  20
GNV  73  88  72  86  71 /  10  60  40  60  30
OCF  74  88  73  88  72 /  20  60  40  60  30


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60

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