Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281729
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
129 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions are forecast across the area through around 06Z.
Another round of reduced cigs and vsbys is expected tonight/Sun
morning over the Suwannee Valley and adjacent areas, likely
including GNV between 09-14Z. Winds will be mostly around 10 knots
or less and from the south along the Atlantic coastline,
southwest near GNV, though gusts to 15-20 kts will be possible
between 18-21Z along the coast with the afternoon seabreeze.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [856 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Early this morning: Moist Low level flow off the NE GOMEX will
help to develop another round of dense fog across the Suwannee
Valley/I-75 corridor of inland North FL and spread north into
inland SE GA through sunrise and dense fog advisories may be
needed again if it becomes widespread.

Today: Strong High Pressure ridge over the GOMEX/FL Peninsula
will remain in place with all-time record heat expected for the
month of March today with Highs in the lower/middle 90s inland and
mid/upper 80s at the beaches with SE Atlc sea breeze pinned close
to the coast. Dry airmass with PWATS less than 1" will prevent any
shower activity.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies expected again underneath high
pressure with lows in the lower 60s inland and middle 60s near the
coast. More dense fog possible over inland areas once again
towards sunrise Sunday morning.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft gets shunted
southward a bit as weak frontal boundary with very little
moisture pushes south into the area Sunday Night and weak high
pressure ridge builds back into the region on Monday. The increase
in SW flow on Sunday will keep all-time record March heat in place
with highs once again in the lower/middle 90s inland and pushes
the heat towards the beaches where highs will be in the upper
80s/near 90 degrees as sea breeze struggles to develop late in the
day. Lack of moisture should keep rain chances with weak front at
10% or less Sunday Night and above normal lows in the 60s. Weaker
SW flow will allow for sea breeze fronts to push further inland
for slightly cooler temps at the Atlc beaches in the 80s, but
highs into the lower 90s will continue over inland areas.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

Tue & Tue Night: Models still in decent agreement on low pressure
development over the SE US on Tuesday and intensifying as it
tracks into the Carolinas Tue Night. This will lead to on more day
of near record breaking heat with highs in the upper 80s/near 90
area-wide with breezy SW flow ahead of the trailing cold frontal
passage expected by Tuesday Night. Pre-frontal showers and storms
can be expected with potential for isolated severe storms, with
best chances of rainfall and severe weather across SE GA with
lessening storm impacts and rainfall coverage into NE FL.

Wed/Thu/Fri: A cooler/drier NW flow behind the front will lead to
Max temps closer to climo values to start April mostly in the 70s
to near 80 degrees. Lows will actually fall into the 40s over
inland areas Wed Night, otherwise lows generally in the 50s
through the dry period under Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies.


.MARINE...

Surface ridge will remain offshore with approaching weak front on
Sunday to continue Southerly flow through the weekend. Speeds at
15-20 knots Today and Tonight with SCEC headlines will weaken to
10-15 knots on Sunday. Weak frontal boundary still slides through
the waters Sunday Night with a shift to light onshore/NE flow on
Monday. Winds become SW ahead on the next front on Tuesday and
increase to potential Small Craft Advisory levels with the
frontal passage Tuesday Night. Gusty NW/Offshore flow expected to
develop behind the front on Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE FL with surf/breakers at 2-3
ft, while Low Risk exists for SE GA with surf 1-2 ft.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum humidities will fall into the 30-40% range each afternoon
through the weekend, but remain above critical levels. Also the
hot and dry conditions will lead to slightly higher daytime
dispersion values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  64  91  63  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  85  66  81  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  93  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SGJ  65  90  65  85  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
GNV  62  91  62  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
OCF  63  92  62  90  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&


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