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000
FXUS62 KJAX 201918
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
318 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS
   RIP CURRENTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER
   BASIN...

.NEAR TERM (Rest of this afternoon through Saturday)...

This afternoon...Surface convergence along the coast continues with
the breezy ENE flow with strong surface high pressure wedged in
by western NC and eastern TN. This has brought about some isolated
showers mainly across the coast sections of SE GA this mid afternoon,
with showers expected to be widely scattered showers this late
afternoon into early evening.

Tonight...By mid evening, showers will begin to taper with
somewhat drier air working into the coast region.

Saturday...Deep layer ridge will be near the GA/SC interior border.
A tight pressure gradient will continue to produce breezy ENE
winds, particularly along the east coast. Drier air will move into
the area which will decrease areal coverage of the coastal showers
Saturday with POPs around 20 percent along the coast. Temperatures
will be at or a degree below average.

.SHORT TERM (Saturday night-Monday)...

Relatively quiet conditions as deep layer ridging and drier air
dominate the region. Winds begin to subside as surface high
pressure off the coast of the Carolinas begins to weaken
decreasing the pressure gradient. This will limit breezy winds to
the Atlantic coastal zones. Temperatures warm to at or slightly
above normal into next week.


.LONG TERM (Monday night-Thursday night)...

A weak cold front sags southward and stalls out over central
Georgia by mid-week as mid-level ridging settles southward over
Florida. Uncertainty lies if any showers will develop along the
weak frontal boundary. At this time, there appears to limited
moisture and forcing with this front. Temperatures continue to
increase to slightly above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Continued onshore flow will keep VCSH possible at all TAF sites
this late afternoon and early evening with gusty E-NE winds at
12-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Have added TEMPO
group for some possible MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with the activity at SSI
since BQK showed some lower CIGS around 18z. Otherwise will remain
generally VFR through the next 24 hours other than some possible
light fog at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12z time frame on Saturday as light
winds develop over inland TAF sites. Another day of gusty E-NE
winds at 10-15 knots on Saturday after 14z with VFR conds and some
VCSH possible at coastal TAF sites of SGJ/SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong NE Flow around 20 knots with seas 7-11 ft will continue
today through Saturday before subsiding trend begins on Sunday.
Shower activity has diminished and expect limited rainfall through
tonight with some light showers/drizzle at times.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rips will continue along the coast due
to strong Northeast Flow combined with long period swells
impacting the surf zone. Morning surf reports along the NE FL
coastline range from the 4-6 ft to 6-8 ft range, so will keep the
High Surf Advisory in place into Saturday with a subsiding trend
starting on Sunday.

Coastal Flood: Northeast flow continues to "trap" water in the St
Johns River Basin with elevated/Action water levels during each
high tide cycle. Overall remaining just below minor flood stages
except for some possible minor flooding in the middle St Johns
River Basin in Putnam county along Dunns Creek. These conditions
will continue into the weekend before improving by the Sunday or
Monday time frame as onshore flow weakens. Will keep Coastal Flood
Statement in place for now to handle these water levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  65  88  63 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  83  73  83  72 /  40  20  10  10
JAX  85  69  85  70 /  30  20  20  10
SGJ  84  73  84  72 /  30  20  20  10
GNV  87  67  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  88  68  89  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Cordero/Chaney/Nelson