Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

Showers and storms that impacted the eastern Kentucky earlier this
morning have moved out of the area along with the cold front which
has moved through and now sits southeast of the area. Have removed
thunder chances from the forecast but a few light post-frontal
showers are still possible across the area this morning and early
this afternoon. Made a few adjustments to the wind gusts this
morning which have started to pick up from the northwest behind
the cold front. Have also updated the T/Td grids with the latest
observation trends.

UPDATE Issued at 729 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

Updated the forecast to account for faster evolving shower and
storm activity. The latest radar trends show that showers and
storms that moved in overnight are moving out much faster than
previously forecast. The rain should be moving out of the area a
few hours earlier than previously thought. Rest of forecast looked
good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be moving across eastern
Kentucky this morning, as a cold front pushes through the region.
The rain will be most widespread this morning, and should taper
off through out the morning as the front moves through. Based on
the latest model trends, the rain should be exiting eastern
Kentucky by early this afternoon, giving way to dry weather by
mid day. Widespread clouds, precip, and the passage of the front,
will lead to much cooler temperatures today around the area, with
highs expected to be a couple of degrees below normal. The timing
of frontal passage later today will mean that temperatures will
likely begin to drop off before dark, or a non-diurnal pattern, as
cooler air filters into the region behind the departing front.
Tonights lows look to be quite pleasant, with minimum readings
about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday mornings lows.

A ridge of high pressure will settle over the area tonight and
tomorrow, and will bring dry conditions and above average
temperatures to the forecast area on Tuesday. In fact, we can
expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday, along
with clear skies and west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

The extended period begins with an upper trough digging southwards
from eastern Canada into the Northeast, while a weak ridge forms
over the south central CONUS. A series of shortwaves and an
associated surface low pushes northeastward out of the southern
Rockies and into the central Plains Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
These shortwaves will cause a warm front to lift out of the Gulf
States and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday and Thursday. The
southern influx of moist Gulf air will be the impetus for showers
and thunderstorms developing Wednesday/Thursday afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe on both
days.

The warm frontal boundary finally fully lifts northward out of the
CWA by late Thursday, drying out the region for most of Friday. The
upper pattern will become increasingly amplified towards the end of
the week, with an upper ridge building over the eastern CONUS, and
an upper trough digging southwards into the Rockies and Plains;
sending a cold front into the region on Saturday. Current model
guidance has active weather arriving ahead of the front early
Saturday and exiting by Saturday night. High pressure will build in
the front`s wake Sunday, producing dry and seasonal weather.

Temperatures for most of the extended trend above normal. Afternoon
highs on Wednesday peak in the low to mid 80s in the southern tier
of the CWA and in the low to mid 70s in the northern tier. Highs
reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
should moderate back towards normal this weekend. Overnight lows
Wednesday morning range from the low to mid 50s, but the influx of
warm, humid air will cause overnight lows to stay in the 60s
Thursday through Saturday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

VFR conditions will prevail to begin the TAF period. A deck of
BKN high clouds will stream across eastern Kentucky initially, but
this will change between 8 and 12Z, as a cold front approaches
from the west. Clouds will gradually lower and increase in
coverage to BKN or OVC at times, as showers and storms roll
through the area ahead of the approaching front. Winds should be
generally light and variable. MVFR CIGs are expected behind the
front, with some IFR possible for breif periods as the front moves
through. We should see VFR conditions again by 18 or 19Z today,
as drier air works in behind the front and clouds clear out. Winds
behind the front will shift to the west or northwest at 5 to 10
kts, with gusts up to 20kts possible at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

VFR conditions will prevail to begin the TAF period. A deck of
BKN high clouds will stream across eastern Kentucky initially, but
this will change between 8 and 12Z, as a cold front approaches
from the west. Clouds will gradually lower and increase in
coverage to BKN or OVC at times, as showers and storms roll
through the area ahead of the approaching front. Winds should be
generally light and variable. MVFR CIGs are expected behind the
front, with some IFR possible for breif periods as the front moves
through. We should see VFR conditions again by 18 or 19Z today,
as drier air works in behind the front and clouds clear out. Winds
behind the front will shift to the west or northwest at 5 to 10
kts, with gusts up to 20kts possible at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BATZ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...LUEHRS
AVIATION...AR


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