Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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045
FXUS63 KJKL 180025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times
  through the middle of next week. After a likelihood in most
  places tonight, the lowest probability of rain occurs Thursday
  night and Friday. Probabilities then increase as we move into
  the new week.

- A welcomed relief from hot temperatures is underway through the
  middle of next week. However, after a drop in humidity Thursday
  and Friday, the moisture will make a comeback as we move into
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south toward the area
out of the Ohio Valley this evening. Ahead of this, a couple of
clusters of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are slowly
working east through eastern Kentucky. Currently, temperatures are
running in the upper 70s to lower 80s most places - with a few
rain cooled pockets in the mid 70s for the far southeast parts of
the area. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints
remain quite elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Have updated
the forecast to address the shower and storm chances through the
night per the latest radar loop and CAMs guidance, primarily, but
also to include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 514 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024

Clouds from a prior upstream MCS moved over the northern portion
of the forecast area earlier today. Most of the precip died out
upstream, but the persisting clouds managed to slow the rise in
temperatures, which in turn held back instability and helped to
keep convection to a minimum there this afternoon. Meanwhile,
stronger heating allowed for numerous thunderstorms to develop
over south central and southeast KY, and they are still ongoing.
This activity will drop into TN and VA this evening, leaving a
relative lull over our area.

However, additional activity is expected tonight. There are
currently numerous showers/thunderstorms near and north of the
Ohio River. These are occurring along and ahead of a cold front
dropping south southeast. Models bring this area of convection
through Kentucky with the front tonight, and possibly lingering
into Thursday in south central and southeast KY. Drier air
eventually works in behind the front and convection is finished by
late Thursday. As clouds decrease and dew points continue to
lower on Thursday night, the cooler locations are expected to see
temperatures drop below 60.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024

There remains good agreement among the ensemble systems and
deterministic guidance for much cooler weather than we have
become accustom to over the past week or so. This as mid-level
ridging breaks down and cold front pushes through much of the
area. This will lead to northeast flow at the surface on friday
leading to drier weather, with PWATs sub 1 inch in some cases and
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. after lows bottom out in
the upper 50s we will see highs on Friday push into the lower 80s
and just a little below the normal values of around 85 degrees at
JKL and 86 degrees at LOZ.

The ensembles and deterministic models are still indicating that
some height rises will move toward the Ohio Valley by the weekend
into early next week. Either way we are still seeing the potential
for a mid-level low to push into the Midwest. Given this we will
continue to see near normal temperatures through the weekend into
early next week. We will also be stuck on the periphery of the
ridging and this should open the door for a slightly more active
pattern to possibly lead to a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms
especially early next week. Even so, storm total QPF from
Saturday into Wednesday is still around a quarter of an inch in
the Bluegrass to around 1.5 inches near the Cumberland Valley. The
afternoon highs will also remain in the low to mid 80s as a
result of more unsettled pattern and cloud cover. Not to mention
the 850 mb temperatures flat line in the around 17 celsius range
at best through the remainder of the period. Right now peak area
wide chances of rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday at around 50-70
percent, as we start to see more shortwave energy show up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will move through the area
overnight ahead of a southward dropping cold front where TEMPO
groups were used in the TAFs for this. Behind the front, forecast
soundings and guidance indicate IFR conditions for a time into
Thursday morning for much of the area. This has been included in
all TAFs, but confidence is just moderate for this development, at
this time. Improvements back to VFR conditions are then expected
everywhere by early Thursday afternoon. Winds, outside of any
storms, will be mainly light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF