Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 092044

National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 444 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2021

An updated short term discussion will be out shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 444 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2021

The extended begins in a decent stretch of dry weather Tuesday that
persists on through the middle of the week. Unsettled conditions
have the possibility of returning late in the work week, and
continue periodically through the weekend. Temperatures will stay
cool most of the period, before warming to around normal values by
the end of the weekend.

In the upper levels Tuesday, the region begins in relatively zonal
flow, just south of a trough moving over the Great Lakes into New
England. At the surface, high pressure lies to our northwest
centered over the Upper Mississippi valley. This high pressure will
continue to nudge its way into the Ohio Valley through Tuesday into
the middle of the week. Weather will stay dry and skies will clear
up some Tuesday and Wednesday, especially further in our north
closer to the high`s center. Tuesday night, with the colder air in
place, and depending on how well skies clear, a few valley locations
may be able to get cold enough to support possibly a touch of frost,
but confidence is not high. Another wave, initially near the Rockies
Tuesday, will move east through Wednesday. This trough will
eventually make it to the Ohio Valley late Thursday, providing our
next potential chance of rain. There is some disagreement still over
the strength of this trough, with the GFS still hanging on to a
stronger solution than others, allowing for a stronger wave at the
surface to bring rain back in the area Thursday afternoon/evening
into Friday. Though, the 12z run of the ECMWF has trended in the
direction of the GFS. Made some nudges based on ensemble
probabilities, but generally not many changes from the NBM. Could
see PoPs maybe increasing in future updates depending on how things
continue to trend. There is general agreement though over late
Friday into early Saturday being dry as high pressure passes east
over the state. Another system approaches the region late in the
weekend, but agreement on many details beyond that is poor, and
stayed with the NBM and left slight chance to chance PoPs beginning
Saturday evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Light to moderate rain was falling over the western portion of the
forecast area at the start of the period, from around KEKQ to
KSYM. Even so, VFR conditions were present area wide. Winds were
brisk, with ridgetop and open terrain locations outside of the
more significant precip gusting above 30 kts out of the southwest.
Brisk winds will continue for a while, but will get subdued as
precip becomes more significant from northwest to southeast late
this afternoon and early evening. Poor conditions will eventually
arrive, with a reduction to mostly IFR forecast behind a cold
front which will move through from northwest to southeast from
about 00Z-06Z. Winds will also die down further this evening. If
precip causes enough cooling to bring a large reduction in winds,
some low level wind shear can`t be ruled out ahead of the cold
front, but at this point it`s not been included in the TAFs. Any
threat of shear will subside after frontal passage, and surface
winds will shift to the northwest and north. However, the poor
conditions (due mainly to ceilings) will last through most of the
rest of the period, with perhaps some improvement near/north of
I-64 early Monday afternoon.


Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-



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