Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mid/upper level short wave trough will bring light rain to the
  area through tonight.

- A strong warming trend will kick in over the weekend, with
  readings reaching 10 to 20 degrees above normal next week. The
  largest departures are expected on Sunday and Monday.

- A cold front and waves of low pressure moving along it combined
  with multiple passing shortwave troughs will bring unsettled
  weather Monday night to next Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024

Light rain is encroaching from the southwest early this morning.
Temperatures have responded nicely with the lower deck of clouds
moving in, as readings are rising above freezing fairly quickly
once this deck overtakes a given location. The latest SPC
Mesoanalysis page reveals a 5-7C layer of warmer air in between
850 and 925 mb, with the Dorton Mesonet confirming this, with 42
degrees currently being reported. The forecast remains on track
this morning, and have only freshened up sky cover, as well as
temperatures and dew points, incorporating the latest trends in
the observations. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024

The latest upper level map shows ridging aligned from central
Canada down through the Upper Midwest and portions of the Ohio
Valley. A well-defined vorticity maximum/short wave trough is
rotating east northeast over the southern Plains. At the surface,
high pressure is centered off of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a
weaker inverted trough positioned east northeast over the central
Appalachians. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, very dry low
level air, and lighter winds have allowed for valleys to drop into
the mid to upper 20s, with broader valleys and ridges holding in
the low to mid 30s.

There is good model agreement regarding the evolution of the
southern Plains vorticity maximum through the short term period.
This feature will continue east northeast over the middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley through tonight, gradually
dampening with time. The residual trough axis will then shift east
of the Appalachians on Saturday, with a modest surface low
eventually developing near the Carolinas, before lifting towards
the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the period. A mostly cloudy
and rainy period will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through
tonight, with precipitation subsiding Saturday morning, and clouds
more stubborn to erode through the rest of the day.

Model guidance has generally trended a bit slower with the onset
of precipitation from the southwest early today. Despite valley
temperatures currently holding in the mid 20s, readings continue
to look to recover fast enough through the day to prevent any
freezing rain concerns. 6 hour HREF probabilities for measurable
rainfall continue to run in the 80-100% range through tonight, as
a more prolonged period of modest, but deeper isentropic ascent
occurs out ahead of the progressive short wave trough to our
northwest. As such, have PoPs similar to these numbers through
tonight. On Saturday, moisture will become more shallow with time,
with precip cutting off from west to east by mid-day, with the
exit of the trough axis. Have used more CONS RAW data for the
starting point on temperatures through Saturday, given all of the
cloud cover and precip around. Highs today will range from the mid
40s southwest, where wetbulbing combats the modest warm air
advection, to near 50 degrees in our far northern and northeast
counties, where some early day filtered sunshine may be possible.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the mid 40s tonight,
as ongoing warm air advection combats the light rain. Clouds will
likely remain through most of Saturday, with 925-850 mb moisture
hanging tough. As such, have kept highs in the mid to upper 50s,
with some sites west of I-75 seeing the best chance to eclipse the
60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024

The period is expected to begin with the axis of a 500 mb trough
shifting east of eastern KY with the axis of a shortwave ridge at
500 mb extending from the Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes.
Further west, an upper level trough is expected to extend across
the western Conus. At that point, a ridge of sfc high pressure is
expected to extend from the Northeast Conus to the Appalachians
to the lower MS Valley. Further north and west, a frontal zone is
expected to extend from Canada across the Northern Plains to
developing sfc low pressure near the MT and WY border and then
south and southwest into the southwest Conus.

The shortwave ridge is expected to build east into the southeast
Conus and Appalachians Saturday night and into Sunday with the
axis of the upper level ridging moving east of eastern KY late
Sunday and Sunday night. At the same time, the upper level trough
is expected to spread east and encompass the western Conus and
portions of the upper MS Valley to Plains by late Sunday night as
a series of shortwave troughs moving from the western Conus across
portions of the Plains. Sfc low pressure initially near the WY
and MT border is expected to move northeast into Canada and reach
near the Manitoba and Ontario border with a wavy frontal zone
preceding the mid and upper level trough extending to the western
Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to central Plains to the OK and TX
panhandle vicinity and then further west into the Rockies and
west. The ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to shift east to
begin the period and extend from the Northeast Conus to the
Carolinas to GA by late Sunday night.

From Monday to Wednesday, a series of shortwave troughs are
expected to move from the western Conus across the plains and
central Conus and into the eastern Conus. Model vary from run to
run and model to model with the strength and timing of the
individual waves, but the consensus of the guidance brings the
first of these into the OH Valley region late Monday and Monday
night and then across the rest of the Commonwealth. In advance of
the shortwaves, the wavy frontal zone should move east and into the
Northeast Conus to OH Valley to Lower MS Valley region at midweek.
This frontal zone is expected to move east of eastern KY by late
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the southern end of this
frontal likely stalling near the Gulf coast or northern Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the period. Additional disturbances are
expected to cross the area through Thursday and beyond.

The period begins with precipitation free weather and as sfc high
pressure shifts further to the east Sunday into Monday ahead of
the approaching series of symptoms, warm air advection will result
in a return of well above normal temperatures. Highs should be
nearly 20 degrees or more above normal for Sunday and Monday with
highs in the 70s common both days. 70s are anticipated for some
locations on Tuesday with temperatures still on the order of 10
degrees above normal for highs even on Wednesday and Thursday
behind the cold front.

Precipitation free weather is expected areawide for Saturday
night into Monday afternoon with ridging working across the region
and then east of the area dominating. Chances for showers
increase as the first in a series of shortwaves nears Monday night
and Tuesday and the sfc cold front works gradually east into the
Commonwealth. The chances for showers peak Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Instability will be limited, but isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out later Tuesday and into Tuesday evening or
Tuesday night. The weather should remain unsettled from Wednesday
into Thursday as a additional shortwaves move into the OH Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024

VFR conditions will yield to lowering ceilings and light rain
moving in from the southwest ahead of an approaching disturbance
today. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR through the
afternoon hours and eventually IFR/LIFR tonight, as the lower
atmosphere saturates. Steady rain will taper off from west to east
early Saturday morning. Winds will average around 5 kts or less,
mainly from the southeast and south.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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