598
FXUS64 KLIX 200448
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

No significant changes in the short term. Weather will remain
quiet tonight as the local area remains loosely under the
influence of an upper level ridge.

The ridge will flatten and shift eastward Tuesday in response to
an upper trough swinging into the middle Mississippi Valley. This
trough will also force a front toward the local area late
Tuesday, stalling near the coast Tuesday night. (Technically is a
cold front, but let`s be real, there`s nothing cold about it.)

The best forcing and moisture associated with this front will
remain north of the local area, meaning we really only have some
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the forecast
from late Tuesday through Tuesday night, and mainly in northern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

With the front stalled near the coast on Wednesday, daytime
heating should be enough to fire off isolated to scattered
showers and storms along the weak boundary. Will generally be
carrying POPs in the 20-35% range for most of the area Wednesday
during daylight hours.

By Thursday the boundary should be located just offshore, so rain
chances will generally be limited to the Gulf waters and extreme
southeastern Louisiana.

In the wake of the front Thursday and Friday, we should see a
couple degrees of cooling, mainly in the overnight low
temperatures. And despite the cooling, temperatures will generally
remain warmer than normal through the period. The bigger
difference will be that dewpoints will come down several degrees,
generally falling back into the 60s after several days in the 70s.
This should make things feel more comfortable even though
afternoon temperatures will still be around 90 degrees each day.

By Saturday the midweek frontal boundary will move back northward
as a warm front with dewpoints rebounding into the low 70s across
most of the area over the weekend. Even in the absence of any
large scale forcing, the extra influx of Gulf moisture should be
enough to help fire off a few isolated showers and storms each
afternoon with daytime heating being the primary forcing
mechanism.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Most terminals currently at VFR, but some stratus build down will
be bringing lowered ceilings near or just below MVFR beginning at
06Z and holding that level through 15to 16Z. Exception to this is
at MCB which will see a ceiling at 1000 feet at 12Z with light fog
bringing visibilities to 5SM, so ceiling will be the more
significant impact. After 15 to 16Z all locations will return to
VFR. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Southeasterly/southerly winds winds of 15-20 kts have prompted
exercise caution headlines across most of the coastal waters
tonight and tomorrow. Winds will start to ease Wednesday morning
as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast. This will
result in generally light and variable winds Thursday and Friday.
The front will move back to the north by Saturday causing winds
to once again become southeasterly, strengthening to 10-15 kts.
The front could also result in isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  73  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  92  75  91  73 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  89  74  90  73 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  90  77  91  76 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  86  76  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  88  73  88  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DM