Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 032055
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing. The strongest
updrafts are producing small hail and strong gusty winds,
generally down in the Houma/Bayou Parishes. Scattered convection
will be possible and an isolated stronger storm will remain a low
end possibility through sunset. ThetaE diffs and DCAPE are
favorable for at least a modest wind threat, however, some of the
stronger and wider updrafts across the SW portion of the CWFA will
have a conditional hail threat.

Tonight, showers should refocus offshore for the natural diurnal
cycle. Cannot rule out some very patchy/light ground fog north of
I12/I10. On Sunday, more of the same can be expected, but CAMs
are slightly drier for tomorrow than today. Overall the thought
process is roughly the same in terms of the meso and synoptic.
Will continue low end climo POPs, but coverage will certainly be
more limited than today with slightly drier air working into the
H7-H5 levels. Have also bumped max temps on Sunday with the lower
coverage expected. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

A fairly stagnant upper level pattern will exist over the region
as a large scale trough resides over the eastern half of the U.S.
to start the long term period. A subtle weakness will be present,
which is forecast to enhance POPs across the region. Generally
going with the higher-end of CLIMO POPs early next week with the
weakness in place across the Red River, MS River and Sabine River
Valleys.

Another cold front (backdoor cold front) later in the period looks
to move closer to the region or perhaps stall just upstream of our
CWFA. This would also help enhance the normal diurnally driven
convection. Did not sway much from the ongoing consensus POPs
since this is still well within the medium range. Temperatures
through the long term will be near climo or maybe, if higher POPs
are indeed realized, a degree or two lower for early to middle
June. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

VFR conditions expected through the cycle. That said, coverage of
convection will be higher today than the previous afternoons.
Covered with VCs and TEMPO groups respectively with most of the
convection close to the Gulf/Lake Coasts this afternoon. Expect
brief reductions and gusty variable winds in and near convection.
This will dissipate this evening and overnight again leading to
VFR conditions. Cannot rule out some MVFR VIS reductions for MCB
around sunrise. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Overall, outside of scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mostly favorable marine conditions are expected
through this forecast period. In and around convection, mariners
can expect locally higher winds and seas, especially during the
overnight and early morning hours. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  92  65  89 /  20  20  10  50
BTR  69  95  70  93 /  30  20  10  50
ASD  67  93  69  90 /  20  20  10  50
MSY  73  93  74  90 /  20  20  10  60
GPT  68  91  70  86 /  20  20  10  50
PQL  66  93  67  88 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF


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