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000
FXUS64 KLIX 242106
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
406 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Since weather will be quiet the next couple days, I`ll just jump
right to the part everyone cares about - newly formed Tropical
Depression 28 (yes, 28) and the seventh forecast cone to touch
our forecast area. Trust us when we say, we`re ready for December.

To be totally honest, there are likely still more questions than
answers regarding the eventual track and impacts associated with
TD 28. While the finer details are still up in the air, the
overall pattern is looking pretty locked in at this point.

TD 28 is expected to move northwestward around the periphery of a
strong high pressure over the next couple days. As it moves into
the central and northern Gulf of Mexico, an approaching upper
level trough and cold front should cause it to turn more northward
and then quickly northeastward by midweek. The exact track of the
storm will depend greatly on when the trough arrives and when that
north and northeastward turn happen.

Currently the NHC track takes the center of 28 through extreme
southeast Louisiana and into the MS Coast late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However, it should be noted that this is still
4 days out and average track errors at this lead time are quite
large. That being said, the forecast cone currently encompases the
entire northern Gulf Coast from SW LA to roughly Apilachicola on
the FL Panhandle, and all interests in these areas should be
closely monitoring the progress of this system.

With uncertainties in the eventual track of TD 28, also come
uncertainties in the impacts that TD 28 could bring to SE LA and S
MS. Based on the current track, moderate to strong onshore flow
could result in coastal flooding, especially across areas near
and to the east of wherever 28 does track. Additionally, while we
expect 28 to be a fast-moving storm, heavy rainfall could still
become a problem in any areas where bands result in a prolonged
period of rainfall. Strong to potentially damaging winds will also
be possible along 28`s eventual track and in any outer bands. All
of these impacts will depend greatly on the exact track and
intensity of 28 as it moves near or through the area.

Bottom line - keep an eye on the forecast for this system as we
continue to refine the possible impacts across the local area.

As an interesting bookeeping side note. 2005 is currently the
busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. In 2005, the last
name used was Zeta. However, due to an unnamed subtropical storm
that was added in post-season analysis, even if this storm becomes
Zeta as forecast, 2020 will still be one storm behind the record
set in 2005.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions vary greatly across the region this afternoon as some
areas have cleared out behind the cold front but others remain
firmly socked in with MVFR to IFR cigs. Don`t expect much
improvement in areas that are currently experiencing restrictions,
and expect those terminals that are currently VFR to return to
MVFR or IFR cigs after midnight tonight. Conditions should improve
across the whole area after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will move eastward tomorrow, with a return to
easterly flow by Monday. Pressure gradient between approaching
cold front and newly formed TD28 should cause winds to strengthen
as TD28 approaches the local waters Tuesday night. TD28 is
currently forecast to move through the waters as a tropical storm
Wednesday into Wednesday night, though impacts will depend greatly
on the exact track of the storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  78  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  79  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  80  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  64  79  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  62  78  63  82 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  61  80  61  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

95/DM