Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 312338
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. A few clouds
still in the area should clear out tonight. The biggest concern
right now is gusty winds up to 30 knots out of the
north/northwest. Winds should quickly diminish as a cold frontal
passage from earlier today continues to move further away. -BL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

SHORT TERM...Lingering clouds across the northern third of the
forecast area are associated with a thermal trough axis and cold
air advection moving into the area. This cloud deck should
gradually clear through the evening hours, and expect to see
mostly clear skies in place across all of the forecast during the
overnight hours. Strong gradient flow from the northwest and north
will persist through the overnight hours will begin to decrease
rapidly tomorrow as a ridge axis builds over the region. This deep
layer ridge will dominate the forecast area through Thursday.
Clear skies are expected to continue tomorrow. On Thursday, some
high level cloud cover will begin to stream into the region, but
the low levels remain dry. As a result, dry weather can be
expected both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near
seasonal norms. Lows should dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s
tonight before warming into the lower to middle 70s tomorrow.
Similar temperatures are expected tomorrow night and Thursday.

A fast moving vorticity max will slide into the Lower Mississippi
Valley Thursday night, and some deeper moisture and increased
forcing will accompany this system. Some isolated rain showers
could develop late Thursday night over the far northwest portion
of the CWA, and cloud cover should increase across the remainder
of the forecast area. Temperatures should also warm a few degrees
due to the increased cloud cover with lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s expected.

LONG TERM...A zonal flow pattern will dominate the Gulf South
from Friday through Sunday, and this will allow a series of fast
moving and weak upper level vorticity maxima to slide through the
region. The exact timing of each of these systems is difficult to
pin down at this time, and have went with a blended model solution
to produce the extended forecast. This keeps a general period of
unsettled weather in place from Friday through at least Monday.
Model guidance is indicating that a ridge will begin to exert more
influence over the region by the middle of next week, and this
could lead to a drier and warmer pattern at that time. Before the
ridge settles in though, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
affect the area this weekend. Fortunately, these systems will
remain on the weaker side, so no significant impacts are expected
in terms of heavy rainfall or severe weather. Any thunderstorms
should remain on the weaker side with a few lightning strikes and
brief heavy downpours being the main concern. As we get closer to
the weekend, confidence in the timing of the passing upper level
features will increase and the forecast will be more fine tuned.
With persistent onshore flow in place, humidity values and
dewpoints will increase through the weekend. Overnight lows
should gradually warm from the upper 50s and lower 60s Friday
night into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Sunday night. Highs will
also warm from the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and Saturday
into the lower to middle 80s by next Monday.

AVIATION...Main concern through tomorrow will be gusty northwest
winds of 15 to 20 knots. Some MVFR ceilings could persist at the
terminals through 00z, but clear skies are expected for tonight.

MARINE...Small craft advisory conditions will persist through
early tomorrow morning as a colder and drier airmass advects into
the area behind a passing cold front. Winds and seas are expected
to quickly drop below advisory levels by late tomorrow morning as
a broad ridge of high pressure settles over the area. These benign
conditions will persist through Thursday morning. The ridge axis
is expected to push east of the region on Thursday, and a
prevailing southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots should take hold and
continue through Sunday. Seas should generally range from 1 to
2 feet in the lakes and sounds, and 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf
waters during this period.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Forecast support for COVID-19 outdoor test sites.
            River Flood Warnings
            Small Craft Advisories

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  73  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  49  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  73  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  73  54  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


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