Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 032334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

VFR conditions should prevail through tomorrow morning for KLBB
and KPVW, while KCDS remains VFR for the TAF period. MVFR CIGs
will be possible on the Caprock late tomorrow morning and early
afternoon, potentially affecting both the KLBB and KPVW terminals
before lifting back to VFR by tomorrow evening. Isolated rain
showers and/or thunder will be possible during the morning and
mid-afternoon hours Saturday across all terminals. However, due
to low confidence and isolated nature of the development of any
precipitation, it has not been included in this TAF cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/

Low clouds behind the morning cold front continue to stick around
the forecast area this afternoon. Expect these clouds to continue
gradually dissipating through the afternoon. Tonight a secondary
reinforcement of cold air will filter into the region. Therefore,
lowered overnight temperatures once again closer to MOS values due
to the continued cold air mass. This will lead to temperatures near
or below freezing for much of the southern Panhandle and northern
South and Rolling Plains once again. Isentropic ascent will increase
early tomorrow morning across the southern portion of the area which
may allow for a few light rain showers to develop before sunrise.

Models continue to indicate a modestly active pattern for the
upcoming week as a sloshing dryline pattern develops at the
surface and increasing southwesterly flow aloft helps pull weak
impulses over the region. Sunday`s precipitation chances will be
limited to the far southern Rolling Plains where better boundary
layer moisture will reside but convection will be hard to come by
as a strong cap will be in place. Monday still looks to be a bit
more favorable for convection but models are struggling with the
location of the dryline and how sharp of a gradient will exist in
the mixing zone. The NAM looks more classic while the ECMWF and
GFS both are much more diffuse and hold the deeper moisture just
east of the Rolling Plains. Kept PoPs fairly close to previous
forecasts and the NBM due to the uncertainty.

Forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday looks quiet as the dryline
mixes east into Oklahoma each day. Thursday through the end of the
week remains uncertain as the GFS has a closed mid-level low
tracking across the Panhandle while the ECMWF holds this trough
west of the Four Corners in the same time frame. NBM placed PoPs
in for Thursday through the end of the forecast and there will
likely be some PoPs around but for different reasons depending on
which model you choose. ECMWF would be a dryline scenario whereas
the GFS would be cold front related.





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