Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 070437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1037 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

VFR conditions will continue overnight as surface high pressure
moves to the east of the region. Southeasterly winds will continue
through the night which may advect some lower-level moisture back
into the region for Sunday morning. Model guidance continues to
hint at the potential for a cloud deck to develop after sunrise
Sunday morning right around 3,000 ft AGL. Confidence still
remains low on how widespread these ceilings will be but appears
that they will occur along a line and west of a KLBB to KPVW line.
By late Sunday morning deep mixing will dissipate any cloud deck
that develops leading to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
TAF period. Southerly winds will become a bit breezy for Sunday
afternoon. /WCI


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/

Progressive upper level pattern continues. Todays upper ridge will
be followed by a weak upper trough early Sunday and another weak
upper ridge late Sunday. This will promote mostly steady surface low
pressure trough along the east side of the southern and central
Rockies through Sunday. Light southerly breezes overnight expected
to increase close to 20 mph Sunday afternoon. Dry conditions will
continue aloft while solutions were trending a little more towards a
possible bout of low clouds Sunday morning mainly on the Caprock,
though surface dewpoints remain depleted following the latest strong
cold front. Temperatures near normal tonight and Sunday, or slightly
milder than today and last night. RMcQueen

Not much change in the extended forecast pattern. The gradual
warming will lead to a breezy but pleasant Spring day on Monday.
There seems little doubt at this point that Tuesday and Wednesday
(especially) will be warm, windy and dusty. Persistent upper level
southwest flow will mix closer and closer beginning early Monday
morning as a trough deepens and elongates over the West. The trough
axis may not pass to the east until next weekend. The pattern is
very dry to begin with mixed signals on precipitation for the
eventual trough passing over the region. Gulf surface moisture
return gets cutoff on Friday, out ahead of the best lift which
casts some doubt on the day 7 and 8 POPs. Temperatures will
moderate nicely after the wind and dust on Wednesday, with 50s and
60s by next weekend behind the front. Seems unlikely, but there
is a nonzero chance of some snow mixing in with the precip
potential late next weekend.




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