Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 191235 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
735 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions to continue. Breezy south to southwest winds to
develop this afternoon then diminish this evening ahead of a cold
frontal passage near the end of the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/

Sunny skies and breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will
unfold today well south of a storm system emerging over the
northern High Plains this afternoon. Temperatures will peak around
10 degrees above average. The warm, dry and breezy conditions may
produce a period of elevated fire weather across the Caprock this
afternoon, though fuel conditions should tend to limit the overall
fire risk. A weak front will follow late tonight, toward morning,
as the the storm system advances into the Upper Midwest.

Only subtle changes in the long term forecast as zonal upper level
flow is established behind the exiting trough to the north
tomorrow into Thursday. Low amplitude ridging aloft with weak
embedded shortwaves will keep max temperatures mostly in the upper
70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday before a deepening trough over
the Intermountain West results in stronger south/southwest return flow
at the surface and H85. Weekend temperatures will climb well into
the 80`s on the Caprock and near 90 across the Rolling Plains
with breezy afternoon winds both days.

Have maintained a dry forecast through the extended period, but
there is a weak but persistent signal for elevated convection and
light showers, mainly across the southern South Plains and
southern Rolling Plains Thursday afternoon into the evening hours
when an embedded shortwave passes over a weak retreating dryline
at the surface. The highest dewpoints, mainly over the southern
Rolling Plains, will struggle to climb above the mid-50s behind
the retreating dryline to the west Thursday evening. A small
window of time late Thursday afternoon and early evening with
sufficient surface moisture convergence may result in some showers
or even isolated thunder in our southeast zones, with best
chances farther to the east into North Texas.




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