Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 220541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Northerly winds will continue through the day today, becoming a
little breezy at KCDS after daybreak. In addition, 4-6 degree
dewpoint depressions at the terminals early this morning raise
the concern a little fog and/or sub-VFR stratus could develop
over the next several hours. Confidence isn`t too high, but enough
to warrant TEMPOs at KLBB and KPVW with MVFR conditions reflected.
In reality, anything from VFR to IFR will be possible at the
terminals centered around the 9-13Z time frame. Should cigs/fog
develop, it would quickly lift/diminish after daybreak leaving VFR
for the rest of the TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/


A cold front is currently moving through the South Plains
dropping temperatures to the mid 40s. Cloud coverage from wrap
around moisture is pretty extensive and will keep temperatures on
the cool side this afternoon. Any lingering showers should
dissipate this afternoon as the upper low continues to move east.
Surface ridging will help temperatures to rebound quickly with
highs in the mid to upper 60s for Sunday. Surface winds become
more southerly on Monday helping highs warm to the mid to upper

A strong shortwave will eject out of the Rockies on Tuesday,
though there are still some timing differences with the cold
front. The GFS has the front pushing through mid afternoon on
Tuesday while the ECMWF delays the front until late Tuesday night.
That would result in warmer highs on Tuesday while the GFS would
be cooler. Have leaned toward the earlier solution with highs
ranging from the mid 60s near Friona to low 80s in Aspermont. Rain
chances continue to favor the Rolling Plains behind the front
with PoPs 40-50% Wednesday into Wednesday night. A similar pattern
sets up again with another shortwave pushing a front through
Thursday night. There are still some details to be resolved
regarding precip potential with this system, but the pattern
seems to favor more rain chances rather than windy pattern and
fire weather we have seen the past few weeks.




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