Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 100439
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1039 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

Light rain showers are developing this afternoon and moving
northward across the Rolling Plains. However, much of this moisture
remains shallow with extremely light rainfall rates. Mid-level
satellite water vapor shows the shortwave trough moving into the
Northern Rockies across the Mountain West, while another shortwave
moves towards Baja Cali from the Pacific. This southern most
shortwave is helping to pump some Pacific moisture into New Mexico
and West Texas with a modest 40-50 knot southwesterly flow aloft.
However, much of this moisture is only providing high clouds as
there is a deep dry layer present between 500-700mb limiting any
chance for the moisture to be brought to the surface without
evaporating. Meanwhile, the shallow light rain showers are
developing from GoM moisture due to southerly 850mb winds along the
back side of the surface high centered over the GoM. Isentropic
ascent paired with the slow northward movement of a quasi-stationary
front situated from the Permian Basin across central Texas will help
give way to continued light rain showers tonight. Low clouds are
continuing to fill in from south to north this afternoon and are
expected to persist through tomorrow afternoon with the abundant low
level moisture remaining in place. Fog will also fill in late
tonight into the early morning hours, with areas of dense fog
possible especially across much of the southwestern two-thirds of
the forecast area.

Temperatures today are being heavily impacted by the cloud cover
filling in this afternoon with highs barely reaching the 50s across
much of the area. The Southern Texas Panhandle is the warmest with
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s as the clouds are slower to
reach that area. Lows tonight will remain fairly mild due to the low
stratus deck helping to insolate the temperatures.

Heading into tomorrow morning, the fog will dissipate through the
morning hours. The best rain chances will be across the Rolling
Plains tomorrow morning with sufficient lift from both the weak
surface front associated with the shortwave moving across the
Northern Plains, and the right entrance region of the 250mb jet axis
aloft. This lift will be sufficient enough to help moisten the dry
layer resulting in the increased chances for rain showers. However,
the best rain will still be east of the area in Oklahoma and
northern Texas. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out with
some of the shower activity. These rain chances will diminish from
north to south with the southward moving weak frontal passage.
Despite the lingering low clouds into the afternoon and weak north
winds following the frontal boundary, temperatures are still
expected to warm into the 50s and potentially lower 60s

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

Easterly component surface winds Saturday night into early Sunday
will eventually become south-southwesterly in response to a
progressive shortwave ridge shifting east across the region during
the day Sunday. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures on Sunday
will increase even more on Monday, well into the 60s on the Caprock
and low 70s over the southern half of the Rolling Plains. Warm
advection out ahead of an approaching, deep trough from the west
will also bring increased boundary layer moisture with a sharpening
dryline gradient Monday afternoon evening. NBM has pushed chance
PoPs a little farther east with little to no impacts expected for
our CWA. Previous deterministic guidance had good consensus in
opening the door for cold air to plunge south on the back side of
the strengthening system as it shifts into the Central Plains. While
the ECMWF still signals a much cooler second half of the week, the
12Z GFS has changed dramatically, to purely zonal upper flow
transitioning into more shortwave ridging by the end of the week.
Not rushing to change NBM max temps based on one run of the GFS
attm, but if the trend continues, the colder airmass next week
wouldn`t be as drastic as currently progged. Expecting mostly dry
conditions either for most of next week once the slight

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

IFR CIGs continue at CDS while LIFR CIGs and VIS continue at PVW
and LBB. LIFR conditions are expected to persist at PVW and LBB
through at least sunrise. VIS continues to slowly drop at CDS and
trends indicate VIS should drop to at least IFR within the next
few hours. All terminals should see conditions return to VFR by
21Z.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday for TXZ024>026-
029>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...51


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