Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
535 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Light winds overnight
increase from the south around noon Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/

The main target of opportunity with this forecast revolved around
a respectable upper trough expected to impact the region Friday
night along with some chances for measurable precip. Increasingly
moist SE winds ahead of this wave by Thu night should garner
widespread stratus and some fog, while on this trough`s backside
by Saturday we are likely to see strong, but cooler westerly winds
envelop the region. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely

Westerly winds proved more bullish today than guidance suggested
as some of the West TX Mesonets in our NW zones managed to reach
advisory levels for a couple hours. These strong winds will taper
through the afternoon as a narrow wind max from 850-700mb finally
departs east of the region. Height gradient aloft will relax tonight
and Thursday while backing from west to southwest ahead of a
slow-moving trough expected to arrive by the end of the week. High
clouds should thicken considerably tonight as this SW flow taps a
broad plume of subtropical cirrus to our SW. Once lee troughing
focuses to our west tonight, surface winds will turn more southerly
and slowly moisten through Friday. Several models show saturated
isentropic lift along the 300 K surface as soon as 6 AM tomorrow
across the TX Panhandle (in the form of elevated showers), but
this signal appears a bit overdone and too far north of our CWA to
worry much about at this time. Otherwise, this layer of elevated
ascent will scoot just east of the CWA by Friday morning as deeper
SW flow ensues ahead of the approaching trough.

Following a good setup for stratus and some advection fog Thu
night through Fri morning, clearing skies should overspread all
but our far eastern zones where cooler SE breezes may keep low
clouds intact much of the day. By Friday night, the upper trough
is progged to deepen while attaining a bit of a negative tilt
structure across eastern NM. Rather strong upper divergence
ahead of this trough axis would tend to focus the best precip
chances across our Panhandle counties, with chances diminishing
farther southward. PoPs were raised into the 50 percent territory
for our northern counties Friday night for this rather impressive
lift which has good model consensus at this time, while elsewhere
in our CWA mid level dry slotting and subsidence south of the
upper low`s track could stunt precip chances considerably.

Barring a sliver of deformation zone rain or snow grazing our NW
counties Saturday morning on the SW side of the departing upper
low, the main story will be strong westerly winds and cooler temps.
Exodus of the low and mid-level jet cores by midday should keep
the highest winds (sustained around 30-40 mph) confined to the
mid-morning and early afternoon hours. Despite these dry and
strong winds, the wildfire threat looks to be hampered by below
normal temps following a Pacific FROPA before daybreak, with a
stronger FROPA creeping south from the Panhandle through the
afternoon. This latter front looks to stall across the region on
Sun underneath zonal flow, and could linger through Mon while
serving to keep our eastern counties much cooler than points
farther west. Even with zonal winds continuing for Tue and Wed, a
much stronger Canadian air mass may threaten the region either day
provided a kicker trough drops south from the Canadian Prairies
and releases arctic air through much of the High Plains. Models
are at usual odds with each other this many days out, so a blended
solution is preferred for now which favors dry and mild conditions
lingering for most areas through Tue.




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