075
FXUS64 KLUB 132335
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Some CAMs continue to indicate the potential for weak convection
along the dryline where surface convergence is best across the
eastern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and early evening. The 10
percent slight chance mention will be kept in the forecast as,
though upper level support is lacking, it is not impossible for
storms to develop. Slightly better, but still low, storm chances are
possible late tomorrow afternoon. The dryline is progged to retreat
tomorrow afternoon as a fairly weak shortwave trough moves over the
FA. This will have slightly better potential for weak convective
development mostly favoring our northern counties. For now a low end
slight chance mention will be added to the forecast given the
overall uncertainty of the shortwave. Temperatures will continue to
be on the warm side tonight and tomorrow as the upper ridge
continues to remain mostly overhead and thicknesses relatively
unchanged (though the axis is slightly to our east tomorrow).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

An upper trough over the west coast and southwestern US will deepen
over the upcoming week. This in turn will help increase southwest
winds aloft.  As a result we can expect surface moisture flowing
north in to the region from the Gulf of Mexico to increase bringing
along with it increased cloud cover, slightly lower temperatures and
giving us the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Chances will start in the west Monday and then spread eastward.  The
best chance could come late Tuesday into Wednesday when the upper
flow helps draw moisture aloft from a dissipating tropical storm
Ileana currently near the tip of Baja California.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR and mostly light winds. Small chance for a few SHRA or TS
once again Saturday afternoon, mainly W of LBB-PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...93