Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1136 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across the region until soon after sunset
today, when light precipitation will begin to spread overall three
terminals. We`ll see predominant MVFR/IFR during the overnight
hours, with gradual improvement west to east Wednesday morning
after sunrise. There is a slight chance of snow mixing in for a
brief period time overnight, especially at KPVW and KLBB.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains on track this morning with very few changes.
Upper level shortwave ridging will give way to shortwave troughing
this morning as a Pacific storm system approaches the region. It
appears that the onset of precipitation will be a bit later now
early afternoon but will persist through early Wednesday morning.
Upstream soundings still favor PWAT values approaching 0.75" which
is slightly abnormal for this time of year. Now looking at the
temperatures this is one of the areas that has slightly changed
since yesterday. Due to the later onset of precipitation models
are indicating that a warm nose aloft should move into the region
at the start of the precipitation event. At the same time due to
wet bulbing effects temperatures at the surface should cool but
all model guidance now indicates that temperatures should remain
at or above freezing. So while the warm air aloft remains in place
would expect only a cold rain to fall for the majority of the
early portion of the event. However, as the mid levels cool late
this afternoon into the evening soundings become indicative of
ice pellets or all snow. Due to the very close temperatures near
freezing at the surface did maintain a mention of the potential
for snow across the northern South Plains and southwestern
Panhandle. Due to warm air advection at the surface would expect
any snow that does fall to probably be mixed with rain and melt
pretty quickly therefore do not expect any appreciable snowfall
accumulations.

Initial weak cold front will move through the forecast area
Wednesday morning into the afternoon with a stronger secondary
front expected late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
These fronts will keep the best moisture east of the area and
therefore have kept Wednesday afternoon and evening dry. Northwest
flow will dominate our weather pattern for the late week and into
the weekend with tranquil conditions expected and gradually
warming temperatures. Next impactful shortwave will move across
the region early to mid next week which ensemble guidance
indicates may bring us our next chance of precipitation. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

55/99/99


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