Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 172149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
249 PM MST Thu Jan 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...The warm front is currently in northwest Montana and
is interacting with a easterly push of cooler air. Northwest
Montana, particularly Flathead valley and Glacier National Park,
should receive fairly steady snow for the next several hours. The
remainder of the Northern Rockies are being impacted by scattered
to numerous showers. These showers will be capable of producing
moderate snowfall which in turn causing variable visibility.

A secondary surge of moisture and energy is anticipated for later
this evening and over night. This feature will enhance the
precipitation across Clearwater/Idaho counties up into
west/northwest Montana. Winter weather advisories continue for
most of the Northern Rockies through at least Friday morning due
to the impacts to the morning commute. Lemhi county into southwest
Montana appears to have the least amount of shower activity during
this period.

A transitory ridge of high pressure will be over the region on
Friday allowing the shower activity to diminish, but it will be
short lived. Another feature will bring widespread precipitation
to the region once again Friday night and Saturday. Snow levels
should be similar compared to the last event, where the lower
valleys of Idaho receive mainly rain with the remainder of the
region experience snow. This feature appears to drop several
inches of new snow in the higher terrain with the valleys
potentially accumulating up to 2 inches.

The active snowy pattern will continue through the middle of next
week. A fairly strong weather disturbance will push through the
region bringing another round of decent snow accumulations across
the mountains of the northern Rockies. Perhaps a bigger impact
may be several inches of snow across the valley of western
Montana. Confidence is increasing for widespread accumulating
snows. It`s quite possible a narrow band containing more intense
snow will develop resulting in higher amounts. However there is
still a lot of unknowns as to where this stronger band may set up
and when. Right now it`s looking like Sunday afternoon and Sunday
evening will be the time for most accumulating snow, BUT STAY

After a brief break in the action the flow will become
northwesterly resulting in periods of snow showers through


.AVIATION...The warm front has moved into northwest Montana. KGPI
will experience fairly steady light to moderate snow until 18/06z
along with gusty easterly winds. The remainder of the region will
experience scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and
evening with KMSO being impacted the most by these showers. KBTM
and KSMN should have vicinity showers between 17/22z to 18/02z. A
second surge of moisture will impact the region later this
evening, bringing the potential of moderate snow to KMSO between
18/02z to 18/08z. The shower activity will steadily diminish
throughout the day on Friday as a transitory ridge moves over the


MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake
     Region...West Glacier Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Friday Butte/Blackfoot

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday Northern
     Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.


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