353
FXUS66 KOTX 171815
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1015 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain and wet snow for valleys will transition to
  mostly snow by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

- Periodic hit and miss heavy snow showers through the week will
  result in winter travel conditions.

- Another system will move in this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue through the work week.
As colder air moves in Tuesday, precipitation will transition to
mostly snow showers in the lowlands and mountains, with light
accumulations in the lowlands. Another system will move in this
weekend, continuing the unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A cold front passage has cooled thermal profiles enough for
the lowlands to see snow alongside the mountains. Totals throughout
the lowlands will be light, up to an inch at most, but wintry
conditions could impact this morning`s commute, so be on the
lookout. The Central Panhandle Mountains and Northern Idaho
Panhandle will see the most snow, with Lookout Pass having a 60-70%
chance of seeing 4 or more inches of snow through this evening. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Central Panhandle
Mountains, Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties, and for the WA/ID
Palouse and Coeur d`Alene. Expect winter driving conditions in these
areas this morning.

Troughing off the PNW coast will strengthen through this afternoon,
ushering in anomalously cold air to the upper and mid levels. This
cold air advection will promote steepening lapse rates, with the RAP
and NAM showing low level lapse rates up to 8.8 degC/km. These low
level lapse rates will favor convective enhancement within the
incoming snow tonight, resulting in locally heavy bursts of snow.
The exact location of these snow bands will be very hard to forecast
in advance, but the overall area most likely to see impacts will be
the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of Washington. This will
impact the evening commute, with the potential for areas under these
heavier snow bands to see low visibility, localized snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour, and flash freezing of roads.
Conditions will deteriorate quickly, so be prepared for winter
driving.

Wednesday through Friday: Troughing over the forecast area will
continue through Friday, resulting in unsettled conditions through
the end of the week. Anomalously cold temperatures will remain,
indicating the main precipitation type to be snow across much of
eastern Washington and northern Idaho. These next rounds of snow
showers will be seen Wednesday into Wednesday night, and then again
Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow totals will be mostly
light, with less than an inch of snow expected in the lowlands with
each round. Highest snow amounts will be seen in the Central Idaho
Panhandle mountains and in the northern Idaho Panhandle, which have
a 40-50% chance of 2 inches of snowfall or more for each round.
Travelers should be prepared for periodic wintry driving conditions
through Friday.

Saturday through Monday: On Saturday, an upper level low drops down
off the Canadian coast. While clusters show anomalously low heights
associated with this trough, 85% of clusters have the trough too far
west for us to see any significant impacts. The positioning of the
low will usher in warmer than normal, southerly flow to the forecast
area, which will allow temperatures to moderate back to near normal.
This will also raise snow levels, favoring more mixed precipitation
in the lowlands, which we`ll keep a close eye on. The CPC`s 6-10 Day
Outlook reflects this, showing chances for near normal temperatures
and above normal precipitation. With this pattern, expect an
unsettled weekend with continued winter driving conditions along
mountain passes. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: One system is slowly exiting North Idaho this morning
with -SN and MVFR cigs impacting Sandpoint/Bonners Ferry through
20z. On its heels, a cold trough is moving into the region
ushering steepening lapse rates and increased risk for
convective snow showers. This leads to moderate to high
confidence for IFR/MVFR stratus to erode between 18-20z and
20-23z around Omak, Winthrop, and Chelan. Areas with earlier sun
and surface heating will experience fair cumulus development
with a 30-50% chance for cigs between 2500-4500 AGL. There is a
5-25% chance for -shsn from surface heating. The main focus for
snow showers will be on smaller scale midlevel waves. One is
lifting northward between Yakima and Omak 18-21z. A stronger and
more organized wave arrives after 05z impacting SE WA and Idaho
Panhandle through 18z with 40-50% chance for bands of -SN to
expand into GEG-SFF-COE and 20-30% for points northward. There
is moderate uncertain in amounts given the convective nature of
these snow bands. Potential amounts vary from a few tenths to 4
inches for PUW, GEG and 0 to 2 inches for SFF, COE, LWS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Through 23z, greatest uncertainty will uncertainty with erosion
of ongoing stratus and redevelopment of MVFR or higher cigs with
surface heating. Brief, light snow showers evident on radar
tracking northward may require amendments for EAT/MWH. By in
large, the greatest uncertainty comes with the precise placement
and intensity of the organized bands of snow overnight and how
much snow falls as LWS, PUW, GEG, SFF, and lesser extent COE.
Moderate to high confidence for this to track through SE WA and
N Idaho but a few miles could be the difference of 2+ inches.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        40  27  35  22  34  21 /  10  30  40  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  25  33  21  34  21 /  40  40  70  50  30  40
Pullman        39  27  33  22  35  24 /  30  60  80  30  40  50
Lewiston       45  31  39  26  39  27 /  20  50  60  20  20  50
Colville       39  22  35  19  34  16 /  30  10  40  40  40  30
Sandpoint      37  23  29  20  31  20 /  70  30  80  70  50  50
Kellogg        37  25  32  20  34  22 /  80  50  90  70  60  50
Moses Lake     42  26  39  24  38  21 /   0   0  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      38  26  38  25  34  22 /  10  10  10  20  40  20
Omak           38  24  35  20  33  19 /  10   0  10  20  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for Coeur
     d`Alene Area.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties.

&&

$$