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000
FXUS66 KOTX 172330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures will continue into Tuesday. Look for winds to
increase Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of a dry cold
front. By Thursday, high temperatures will likely be in the 60s
and low 70s with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler
and showery pattern is expected to persist through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WILL ELEVATE GRASS AND
BRUSH FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO PALOUSE AND
WEST PLAINS...

Tonight through Tuesday night...After an afternoon of scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms in northeastern WA and
northern ID Panhandle, there looks to be enough moisture and
instability for early evening convection to continue.
Lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are possible hazards with any
passing thunderstorms. Spotty rain showers will continue into
the early morning hours Tuesday in the eastern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. As the ridge flattens and with the passing of a cold
front, we will see drier conditions and the beginning of cooler
temperatures. Only a slight dip in temperatures on Tuesday, but it
will be our final day of these warmer, above normal temperatures.
Tonight and tomorrow`s conditions will be monitored, especially in
areas such as Wenatchee Valley and the eastern Cascades, which may
see gusty conditions with this passing cold front. New and current
fires will be watched closely due to fast and sudden spread in these
windy and drier environments. JS

Wednesday: Gusty west winds will be our main concern on WED as a
chilly upper level trough moves into British Columbia. Strong cold
advection combined with increasing momentum aloft under the Polar
Jet will produce sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35
to 40 mph across Central Washington into the Columbia Basin,
Palouse and West Plains. Wind speeds of this magnitude are pretty
common in these wind prone areas and occur several times a year.
Sporadic power outages will be possible and the few fields that
have been recently worked may produce localized patchy dust.
Fortunately, mid June is not a time of widespread agricultural
activity so dust impacts won`t be prolific. Rapid spread of
wildfires is our primary concern on Wednesday with humidity levels
in the 20 to 25 percent range from Wenatchee to Moses Lake to
Ritzville to Spokane. Fortunately, Wednesday`s winds will be
accompanied by cooler temperatures with most lowland areas topping
out in the 70s Wed afternoon.

Thursday: A chilly low pressure trough will drop into our region
from British Columbia on Thu. Markedly cooler temperatures are
expected across the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of
Washington with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The
trajectory of the upper cold pool will favor scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains as well as the lowlands of
northeast Washington including Spokane and Coeur d`Alene. The NWS
blend of models is quite conservative compared to the operational
model runs of the GFS, NAM, and GFS. Precipitation chances have
been trended up, but may need to be increased further on Thu and
Thu night.

Friday: The heart of our chilly trough is expected to pivot into
the Central Rockies on Friday. Most of the models retain enough
cyclonic flow in the mid and upper levels to sustain showers over
the Idaho Panhandle and the far northern mountains of northeast/
north central Washington. Temperatures should rebound into the 70s
over the majority of the Inland Northwest on Friday which is
pretty close to average for mid June. /GKoch

Saturday through Monday: A shortwave ridge pushes into the area on
Saturday. The northwest flow aloft will create a chance of showers
across the mountains with afternoon thunderstorms possible for
extreme NE WA and the ID Panhandle. Sunday and Monday the models
and ensembles are agreeing on a closed low moving down along the
west coast towards WA/OR. Our showers will become more widespread
region wide. Thunderstorms are a little more uncertain, but it
looks like the best location will be close to the Canadian border
from the Cascades east to the ID/MT border.

Temperatures will be the warmest Saturday with the shortwave
ridge. Valley high temps will be around average or in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Then Sunday and Monday with the proximity of the low
our temperatures will lower a few degrees each day. Monday we
will see highs in the low 70s to near 80, which is about 3-6
degrees below average. These cooler temperatures and unsettled
weather may stick around through next week as CPC`s 8-14 day
outlook looks cool and showery. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
mountains of NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle will diminish
after 03z with the loss of daytime heating. These storms are not
expected to impact any of the TAF sites. Winds will be breezy this
evening at KEAT. Drier and more stable air will move in Tuesday
with a continuation of VFR conditions at all TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  83  53  70  47  64 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Coeur d`Alene  58  81  52  69  46  61 /  10   0   0   0   0  30
Pullman        56  79  50  67  44  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  87  58  77  52  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       48  85  44  73  44  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  81  50  67  45  60 /  20   0   0  20  10  30
Kellogg        60  77  53  65  46  59 /  20   0   0  10  10  30
Moses Lake     59  90  53  76  51  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  84  56  74  51  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           58  87  52  76  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677).

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone
     673)-East Washington Palouse and Spokane Area (Zone 674).


&&

$$