Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 300007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
507 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak showers will continue over the northern mountains and ID
Panhandle through the afternoon, before the region clears out. A
warming and drying trend will occur through the weekend into early
next week. By mid to late next week temperatures trend down and
unsettled conditions return to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday: Limited convection has formed this afternoon
over the northern mountains and the ID Panhandle with light rain
showers. There is not as much oomph as there was in yesterdays
showers and as of 2pm, no lightning has been observed. The showers
will dissipate around sunset, leaving clearing and calm conditions
overnight.

This weekend will have an abundance of sunshine across the region as
high pressure that has been situated over the Pacific shifts over
the Inland Northwest. Northerly winds will increase down the
Okanogan Valley and into the Waterville Plateau with gusts up to 25
mph in the morning hours, before decreasing in the afternoon as the
pressure gradient weakens. Temperatures will finally begin to warm
up above normal, with most lower elevations in the mid 50s to even a
few 60s. Sunday will be similar, but with high level cloud moving
over the region in the morning. Otherwise, clouds will clear for a
warm and beautiful afternoon with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer
than Saturday. Winds will increase Sunday morning in the Okanogan
Valley and Waterville area as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten with north gusts to 45 mph. The winds will decrease in the
evening as the sun sets. /KM

Sunday night through Friday: A building ridge of high pressure will
nudge into the Northwest early in the week but will not be
stationary for too long. Long enough to warm daytime temperatures up
back into above normal territory (normal is mid 50F temps for early
April). Monday through Wednesday the temperatures have continued to
trend warmer. Considering how the National Blend of Models handled
the last warming trend, I have opted to use the 75th percentile
guidance for warmer temperatures in the lower elevations. Another
consideration will be the increased sun and less cloud cover which
should aid in warmer temperatures. While the guidance may struggle
with such a warming trend, the NBM does hint at the wide range of
uncertainty with respect to high temperatures. So, this does not
help with the confidence in the exact numbers but the pattern
recognition is something to share knowledge of. Outdoor plans for
early next week should be pleasant.

The trend for the breakdown of the ridge mid-week has changed in the
ensembles and deterministic guidance with respect to timing. This
will impact the high temperatures and introduce another round of
precipitation by late week. Thursday and Friday, showers and
another round of afternoon convection is possible. The National
Blend of Models has a 10-12% chance for thunder across the L-C
Valley up through the Sandpoint area of the ID Panhandle and the
WA Palouse for Wednesday evening. The environment will cool moving
into Thursday given our incoming shortwave feature and cold
front, so the thunder chances will drastically decrease and our
rain-snow chances will increase, though any accumulations at this
time look low for snow in lowland areas. Speaking of the ridge
breakdown, we will also encounter some wind. Wednesday and
Thursday northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and onto the
Waterville Plateau will become breezy to gusty. The NBM carries a
50-70% chance for gusts 35-40 mph Wednesday. The mean wind gust
advertised from the global ensemble models is closer to 35 mph.
/Dewey


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Afternoon surface heating is providing enough
instability for widely scattered hit or miss showers across the
northern mountains of WA and Idaho. Given the lack the forcing
these showers will wane 01-03Z with the loss of heating.
Overnight, look for mainly VFR skies and light winds. Cannot rule
out patchy shallow fog near water bodies or in sheltered valleys
where showers passed over today but this comes with low
confidence.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
A few weak echoes are present near Pullman, Wenatchee, and
Lewiston. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or brief shower but overall
trends on radar are showing these cells weakening. A brief erratic
wind gust of 25 mph will be possible near decaying showers.

------------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  55  33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  30  54  32  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        31  54  34  56  35  60 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       36  60  38  62  38  66 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       28  55  29  58  31  65 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      30  52  32  54  32  58 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Kellogg        31  52  34  54  36  58 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  61  35  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  60  38  62  41  69 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  59  34  63  38  69 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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