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702
FXUS66 KOTX 162219
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
319 PM PDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected to continue into Monday with
high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A more robust cold
front looks to arrive early Tuesday with much cooler temperatures
for the middle to end of the week. There will also be an
increasing chance of precipitation across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday: Gulf of Alaska low moving southeast and
within close proximity of the Coast Monday coupled while upper level
ridge axis moves east and away sets up a southwest flow over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho overnight into Monday. This will result
in southwest wind increasing Monday afternoon as well as a cooling
trend that is more apparent after Monday. Monday night into
Tuesday the upper level trof exerts more influence as it makes
slow movement inland and pushing the upper level jet oriented
along its outer edge overhead and/or to the south of the forecast
area coupled with a surface cold front passage. The result is a
continuation of the cooling trend and potential for gusty winds as
well as increased cloud cover and pops for showers primarily over
the Cascades and the Northern mountains of Northeast Washington
and North Idaho on Tuesday. It seems reasonable to think that
there could be some localized blowing dust near recently worked
fields as a result of the gusty wind and persistent dry
conditions. /Pelatti

Tuesday night through Sunday: Models and the ensemble means are in
general agreement with the pattern through the weekend but differ
with the details of a closed low that will have to be monitored
throughout this entire forecast period. The low will result in
much cooler temperatures for mid week through the weekend compared
to those observed the past few days. Initially there is good
agreement of the low over western WA on Wednesday with a cold pool
near -30C over North Central WA favoring a good chance for
convective showers to form especially over the mountains. Another
area of focus may be over SE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle
as a mid level wave tracking across the area.

On Thursday the closed low dives south into Oregon and California
but a lingering cold pool over the region combined with daytime
heating should bring another round of showers to the region.
ECMWF, GFS, and NBM data suggests enough instability over the
Cascades, Okanogan Valley and Highlands for a slight chance of
thunderstorms as well. On Friday and Saturday the closed low
lingers to our south but ensembles show some slight differences
with position and intensity which impacts the degree of shower
activity into Friday into Saturday. The most favored area is SE WA
into the ID Panhandle given closer proximity to low. The low to
the south may also result in breezy north to northeast winds
across parts of the region Friday into Saturday especially the
Purcell Trench and Columbia Basin. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Continuing VFR conditions over the next 24 hours with
some high cirrus and afternoon/early evening flat cumulus at times.
Around 15-18Z monday southwest winds should increase and become
gusty through Monday afternoon and evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  80  49  63  39  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  51  79  48  63  37  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  77  46  61  38  54 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       55  86  54  70  45  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Colville       45  82  44  66  33  64 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      47  77  48  61  35  59 /   0   0   0  20  10  20
Kellogg        52  75  49  58  40  54 /   0   0  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     52  81  47  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  79  48  63  40  62 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Omak           51  81  48  67  36  63 /   0   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$