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000
FXUS66 KOTX 232349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will impact Eastern Washington and
North Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few storms in the late
afternoon may become stronger with gusty winds and small hail. A
warmup is expected Wednesday and Thursday with widespread high
temperatures climbing up into the 70s. A return to cool and
unsettled conditions for Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday night: Convection (Thunderstorms) lately
has been limited and on the weak side. We`ve had one lightning
strike in the last hour or so in northeast Washington. Isolated
lightning strikes will continue in northeast Washington and the
North Idaho Panhandle where the strongest cells are now.
Elsewhere, convection is struggling to materialize over a
widespread area but there were new pockets developing farther west in
the central Basin, north Central Washington and south of Spokane
toward the Palouse. There`s still some good heating to be had
over the next couple of hours with some generally less than 500
J/Kg cape values over eastern Washington. We`ve been waiting for
a shortwave sufficiently to generate more cooling aloft to help
spawn more convection and that appears to be on the verge of
occurring. Going into the overnight hours any showers lightning
that`s ongoing will gradually fade toward midnight as they exit
into the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle.

Tuesday will have more of a drying trend but high clouds spilling
over high pressure will filter the sun especially toward the
Canadian border. There will be some sprinkles or showers out of
these higher clouds but not a lot of wetness before the rain gets
pushed north later Tuesday. Overall Tuesday will be warmer but
still only getting into the 60s to lower 70s. TC

Wednesday through Monday: The weak ridging starting out on Tuesday
continues on with a very slight amplification through Wednesday and
shifts to the east Thursday. This will allow for a generally dry
forecast with a warming trend peaking on Thursday as southerly flow
on the west side of the departing ridge and ahead of an approaching
low pressure system allows the warming to continue. In addition
since the ridge is not very amplified some moisture is expected
to stream through it and is expected to produce varying amounts of
cloud cover rather than precipitation. The low pressure system
will drag a frontal zone into the area Thursday evening and allow
for more substantial overcast cloud cover and increasing pops for
showers along with cooler temps. A general progressive trof
pattern then lingers in place allowing for cooler and potentially
showery and unsettled weather over the weekend and into the early
portion of the next workweek. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave trough of lower pressure has pushed across
the Cascades forcing scattered showers across eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle. There will be a 4 hour period through
about 04Z where the atmosphere will destabilize as temperatures
cool aloft. Isolated thunderstorms are expected primarily east of
KOMK to KMWH. Thunderstorms will be short lived and capable of
producing brief downpours and small hail. Low confidence if any
thunderstorms will impact any one airport, but best chances look
to be across northeast Washington to the Northern Panhandle. Gusty
northwest drainage winds will result in gusts of 20-30 kts at KEAT
out to KEPH and KMWH this evening. Scattered low stratus and
possibly some patchy fog over northeast Washington and the
Northern Pahandle come early Tuesday morning, which includes the
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  65  50  70  49  74 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  64  48  67  48  73 /  50   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        41  63  50  70  50  72 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       47  71  55  78  55  80 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  67  47  71  45  74 /  60  10   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      43  62  46  64  45  70 /  50  10   0  10   0  10
Kellogg        45  61  49  63  50  72 /  60  10   0  20   0   0
Moses Lake     42  72  50  78  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      47  70  52  75  53  74 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           43  70  49  75  50  76 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$