680
FXUS65 KPIH 121823
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1223 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record highs possible today and Wednesday with
  afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few mostly dry thunderstorms possible today, with better
  chances Wednesday

- Wind Advisory for much of Southeast Idaho Wednesday for gusts
  to 55 mph with the potential for higher gusts with showers and
  thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

The next 36 hours across central and eastern Idaho will be
fairly crazy as a low races across our area. Ahead of that, we
are expecting record to near record highs as many areas will try
and eclipse 90 degrees. With the warmer temperatures and mid
level moisture swinging north, we are expecting some
virga/sprinkles and stronger gusts with a few "showers"
developing across the South Hills and Albion Mountains shifting
north across the Magic Valley, INL, and central mountains
through tonight. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph,
with potential peak gusts closer to 50 mph. For Wednesday,
expect the potential for light rain showers and thunderstorms to
increase especially late morning through early evening. Gusts
up to 55 mph are likely even without any help from
thunderstorms. We have a WIND ADVISORY in effect for a good
chunk of eastern Idaho. If the forecast holds, we could likely
expand that a bit in areal coverage. With thunderstorms, we do
expect gusts in excess of 55 mph and potentially over 65 mph.
There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for
this reason. This low continues to pick up its pace and should
be out of our area tomorrow night. Ahead of the cold front, we
are still expecting record to near record highs...with the
potential of areas that are far enough ahead of that front and
maximize sunshine to still hit 90.

We look dry now until the weekend, when general low pressure
settles in across the northern Rockies. There is some potential
for showers and storms mainly farther north toward the Montana
border. The bigger story will be a return to AVERAGE and even
BELOW AVERAGE temperatures heading into early next week. We
should be back into 60s/near 70 Thursday and mid 60s-mid 70s
Friday. Sunday looks to be the coldest day with highs maybe not
making it out of the 40s and 50s. We could see pockets of frost
or light freeze conditions Friday and Saturday mornings. We
should see more widespread freeze conditions Sunday and Monday
mornings, with colder spots well down into the 20s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions forecast areawide with FEW high clouds and light and
variable winds, with the exception of KSUN`s diurnal wind shifts.
The ridge of high pressure will break down tonight/early Wednesday.
Winds will dramatically increase tomorrow and chances for
showers and mostly dry thunderstorms return during the afternoon
tomorrow.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051>057-
067>070-075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan