Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 212015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday. Back side of lower pressure
system is slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers in the upper
valley will linger until after sunset. With abundant moisture over
the past 24 hours and clearing skies we anticipate some patchy
valley fog tomorrow morning across many areas of eastern Idaho.
On a positive note, the amount of moisture and potential
development of fog may reduce the freeze concerns except in the
high mountain valleys. Will not do any highlights for this but
will monitor for dense fog later this evening. On Sunday, warming
temperatures are expected as brief high pressure moves in but
increasing clouds late in the day are expected as another weak
system will slide across the area overnight into Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. Monday`s system will
have minor impacts. Model trends show it may split and leave us
dry over most of eastern Idaho. The best (and potentially only)
chance of seeing precipitation is across the central mountains
and in the Magic Valley and into the South Hills. The Blend of
Models is insisting we should see some chance of showers (even if
it`s slight) for all of eastern Idaho, but that may be overdone
considering the trends.  Dry and breezy northwest flow sets up
through mid-week with seasonal temperatures. Ensemble models and
forecast trends still point toward a colder, wet pattern returning
to much of the northwestern states by late in the week. Travel
and local impacts from prolonged rain and mountain snow possible
beginning next Friday into the weekend. We will be monitoring this
storm for potential coordination efforts with partners.



.AVIATION...Currently there are vicinity showers for KIDA and KDIJ
with an exiting low system. Expect lingering MVFR CIGS with these
showers/moisture this afternoon. Also, look for slightly breezy
winds this afternoon. Expect winds to become light and variable with
high pressure building in. Clouds will gradually clear allowing for
the possibility of fog, especially in Upper Snake River plain and
the Upper Snake Highlands where there is ample moisture. This would
impact KIDA and KDIJ. There is some uncertainty of the timing of
clouds to clear out in these areas. In the lower Snake River plain
and the Eastern Magic Valley, these areas will very likely clear out
from any cloud cover, but there is not as much as available
moisture, so fog development is not as likely. Wyatt


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect lingering light showers this afternoon for
the Upper Snake River plain and the Upper Snake Highlands. Winds
will be breezy but drop off overnight.  High pressure builds in
overnight into tomorrow morning bringing drier and warmer
conditions. A weak, split system moves over the area on Sunday night
into Monday. Expect very little moisture over our northwest areas
with the upper portion of the system and no precipitation with the
lower portion of the system. Expect breezy winds late Sunday
becoming slightly stronger Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions will
continue through Wednesday in a west northwest flow. Next good
precipitation chance is Thursday as a very moist upper level low
system starts to approach. Widespread moisture moves over the area
by Friday. Wyatt



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