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000
FXUS65 KPIH 011032
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
332 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday
High pressure has exited the region with a steady flow of Pacific
moisture moving into the area in a west northwesterly flow aloft.
Little has changed in the forecast in the last 24 hours. Snow has
already started early this morning, and still expecting light
valley snow and moderate mountain snow today. Models still show
all precipitation to be snow today for all locations. Look for 1
to 3 inches of valley snow, with the higher amounts along the
Eastern benches of the Eastern Magic valley and Snake plain. There
is a 70 to 80 percent chance for Pocatello and Burley to receive
1 inch of snow and a 30 to 40 percent chance to receive 2 inches
of snow today. Look for 4 to 8 inches of mountain snow favoring
western slopes in the Sawtooths, the Southern Hills/Albion mtns,
and the Eastern Highlands. The Big Holes and Wasatch mountains
highest peaks could see up to 12 inches of snow. There is now a 70
to 80 percent chance for the Big Holes and Wasatch to receive 6
inches of snow. Also on Friday, models are showing winds picking
up in the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph with slightly
higher amounts in the Southern Hills/Albion mtns. Blowing and
drifting of snow is expected.

Saturday, models continue to show the strongest band of Pacific
moisture moving over our area bring light valley snow and
moderate mountain snow. With this band of moisture, winds do pick
up as well with more widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph expected.
Look for slightly more moisture on Saturday than today, especially
in the mountains. Though there will be an overall steady stream
of moisture, especially for the mountains, the strongest moisture
looks to be in the afternoon. Currently looking at 1 to 2 inches
of valley snow Saturday. Snow levels will be rising Saturday,
which has continued to bring uncertainty on low level snow
amounts. There will likely be a rain/snow mix on Saturday,
especially for the Eastern Magic valley. Mountain snow will again
favor the Western Sawtooths and the Eastern Highlands where 5 to
10 inches of snow is expected with up to 12 to 15 inches for the
Big Holes and the Wasatch mountains. Even more blowing and
drifting of snow is expected with stronger winds on Saturday.

As far as storm highlights, there is a winter weather advisory out
today for the Sawtooths, Shoshone, Arco Desert, Eastern Magic
Valley, Snake Plain, Eastern Highlands, Raft River and the
Southern Hills/Albion mtns. A winter storm watch is out for
Saturday for the Western Central mtns, Eastern Highlands, Raft
River, and Southern Hills/Albion mtns. These areas will likely be
rolled over into continuing winter weather advisories. The
Eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain may need continued advisories
as well. Snow amounts look to be less with rising snow levels.
However, winds will be stronger and blowing and drifting of snow
will likely be more widespread. TW

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
Storm continues on Sunday with snow levels rising to the 5 to 7
thousand foot level so will have changed to rain in the lower
elevations especially Magic Valley and Snake Plain.  Will have
areas of heavy snow continuing in the eastern highlands and
Sawtooths.  Gusty southwest winds will also continue causing blowing
snow over passes.   Upper ridge will build in Monday and
precipitation in the mountains will taper off.  Expect well above
normal temperatures next week from Sunday through Thursday.  Monday
and Tuesday should be dry with only some mountain light showers.
May see precipiation return Wednesday and Thursday with still very
elevated snow levels of 6 to 8 thousand feet.  Very low confidence
in extended forecast but model blend has a cold front moving through
next Friday with colder temperatures returning.  Sunday thorugh
Thursday will generally be highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s low
elevations with some highs in the 30s higher mountain levels.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Long lasting storm system will bring periods of snow today and
Saturday to all sites.  Think worst conditions at BYI, PIH, IDA and
DIJ where frequent MVFR to IFR conditions will occur with some
breaks through the period.  SUN will likely have least snow today
but will still have occasional MVFR conditions.  Periods of snow
continue Saturday with BYI, PIH and IDA likely changing to rain late
Saturday night and Sunday as warm air begins to quickly filter into
the region.  Winds will increase tonight and Saturday with some 10
to 20 knot sustained speeds expected.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for IDZ051>066-
072.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night
for IDZ056>066-072-073.

&&

$$