662
FXUS65 KPIH 230506
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1106 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming through Memorial Day in the Snake River plain
  and eastern Magic Valley.

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains
  and highlands for Friday afternoon and evening.

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
  for the eastern and southeastern highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

This early afternoon radar images indicate scattered showers.
Isolated thunderstorms are just now developing in a band along
the western edge of the forecast area. This should continue this
evening, then decrease to just showers in the late night.

After this low moves through, high pressure should dominate the
pattern, with strong heating making for some unstable
conditions, so the slight chance continues for only the rough
terrain.

Afternoon highs should level off for Fri after the large amount
of warming from Wed to today. The overnight lows warm from
tonight to Fri night.

Wind will be even weaker on Fri compared to today as the high
pressure strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

The holiday weekend looks mostly pleasant across the region as
troughing on Sunday looks to give way to weak ridging, or at least
split upper flow, over the area which should keep things mostly dry.
An isolated shower or storm is possible on Saturday across the
eastern highlands but the rest of the area will remain dry. By the
time we get into Sunday, it appears that there won`t be enough
moisture to support much in the way of clouds, or precip, so ample
sunshine is expected. Still seeing models struggle a bit with the
amplitude of the aforementioned ridge so temps have come down a bit
for Sunday with mid to upper 70s now forecast vs. the lower 80s from
a few days ago. Still running slightly above seasonal norms but a
noticeable downward trend nevertheless. Things SEEM like they want
to warm up beginning on the Memorial Day holiday and continuing into
the upcoming work week but models still show some differences in the
upper level pattern as the ECMWF continues to show a slow-moving
upper low through mid-week while the GFS shows an upper ridge
strengthening over the area through the week. NBM continues with a
middle of the road approach for now keeping temperatures in the
lower 80s for valley locations with diurnal shower/storm chances,
mainly across the high country, for much of next week and the
forecast will run with this for now with slightly lower than usual
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Overall forecast confidence continues to solidify in low-impact, VFR
conditions dominating the current TAF period...and continuing into
at least Saturday morning. The 00z HREF suite of CAMs have changed
little...still supporting another round of isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon across northern portions of
our forecast area including the Central Mountains and Montana
border/Island Park region. Confidence remains very low as to whether
or not any of this activity will be able to build far enough south
to affect any of our TAF terminals, and we continue with a dry
forecast. The best chance remains KSUN...perhaps a 20% chance at
this time of at least a vicinity thunderstorm between about 19z/1pm
and 01z/7pm. We`ll continue to evaluate this potential.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Temperatures continue to warm today with highs into the 70s in the
eastern Magic Valley and throughout the Snake River Plain and 60s
elsewhere. A weak shortwave and cold front will be working through
Eastern Idaho, too, bringing a chance for showers and storms mainly
north of a line from Sun Valley to Idaho Falls to Driggs. Strong
wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threat with any storms
today, but it will also be breezy outside of storms with widespread
gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Total QPF from any storms today is expected
to remain around or below a tenth of an inch.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...AMM