Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
942 FXUS65 KREV 132225 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 225 PM PST Wed Nov 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Strong and gusty southwest winds continues through early evening with impacts to fire weather, aviation, travel, and recreation. Snow showers may bring slick conditions to Tahoe area passes late afternoon into early evening. * A brief lull on Thursday will be followed by another storm system Thursday night-Friday which could provide additional snow impacts in the Sierra with light snow showers to W.Nevada valley floors. * The active weather pattern continues into early next with another chance of light Sierra snow showers and below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... A Wind Advisory continues through this evening with strong and gusty winds materializing across portions of the Sierra and western Nevada. Wind gusts this afternoon have generally been in the 40-50 mph range with peak gusts near 60 mph in wind prone areas near Washoe Valley. Crosswind hazards and aviation turbulence are likely along with areas of blowing dust. A Red Flag Warning remains in place along the Sierra Front due to the magnitude of the winds and marginally dry conditions. While precipitation will follow the winds later this afternoon, anticipated snowfall amounts will be light by Sierra standards but still enough to present some travel impacts or slow downs this evening. The initial band of rain and snow showers is currently working its way into western Lassen county with mountain snow showers possible across Tahoe Basin passes possible by 3-4pm. The greatest likelihood to see 1-4 inches of snowfall accumulations along Sierra crest passes will be between 4-10pm this evening as snow levels dip to around 6000-6500 feet. Elevations at lake level will likely see a rain-snow mix with limited potential for accumulations (<10% for up to 1 inch). A brief lull in the weather will be in place on Thursday before a reinforcing trough swings through Thursday night into Friday. Colder air behind this system will drop snow levels near 4500 feet which could yield light snow showers to western Nevada communities through Friday morning. While valley floors may see snow showers, any accumulations may be limited to trace amounts. Foothill areas above 5000 feet could see 10-20% chances of seeing up to 1 inch of snowfall. There could be a higher potential for Sierra travel impacts Thursday night into Friday morning as lower snow levels could yield 4-8 inches on Sierra passes with about a 20% chance of up to a foot of snowfall. Snow showers will taper off through Friday evening with overall colder temperatures in the wake of the departing low trough on Saturday. Highs will dip 10-15 degrees below season averages with highs expected to remain in the upper 30s for Sierra communities and low 40s for Sierra valleys. An additional storm system looks to move across the Pacific Northwest on Monday but the latest guidance has been keeping the bulk of the moisture farther north of the area. Confidence is lower end for the amount of precipitation but overall it is trending towards light showers with a reinforcing wave cooler temperatures. Fuentes && .AVIATION... * An incoming storm will bring strong and gusty southwest winds this afternoon into early evening. Strongest period of winds are expected through 03z today with surface gusts of 35-45kts within that timeframe across Tahoe terminals (KTRK,KTVL) and Sierra Front terminals (KRNO,KCXP,KMEV). KMMH could see gusts near 35kts this afternoon with winds diminishing this evening after around 05z. * Expect areas of mountain wave turbulence as well as low level wind shear through this evening as Sierra ridgetop gusts (FL100) increase to near 90kt+ from 22-06z. * A period of valley rain and mountain snow showers will be possible after about 22z across the Tahoe terminals as snow levels hover just above field elevations for KTVL and KTRK with a 30-50% chance of rain and snow mix. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible through early evening with a trace to less than 0.5 inches of snow accumulating on runway areas. * Expect mountain top obscurations with valley rain showers for western Nevada terminals through early evening. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002-005. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PST this evening below 6500 feet for NVZ420-421. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening NVZ002. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening NVZ003. Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ070>072. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening CAZ071-072. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening CAZ073. && $$