Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 022214
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
214 PM PST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Slightly above average high temperatures will rise to well above
average for Thursday and Friday. It will be dry except for light
snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in Mono County. Winds
increase late week followed by cooler temperatures and chances for
rain and snow for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Extensive high clouds continue to wash over eastern CA and western
NV this afternoon well ahead of low pressure centered well off
the southern CA coast. The clouds in combination with less flow
aloft (to encourage mixing/warming) has brought slight cooling for
many areas along and south of Hwy 50, although mountain slopes
and ridges as well as areas north of Hwy 50 are showing a bit of
warming over yesterday. In any case, temperatures are rather
seasonable with 40s for Sierra valleys and 50s for lower valleys.

The aforementioned low will track inland over far southern CA-NV
tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Much of the model/ensemble
guidance remains consistent in generating snow showers near the
Sierra Crest over Mono County, possibly extending into southern
Alpine County, Wednesday afternoon-early evening. Blended probabilities
for measurable snow in the high eastern Sierra remain medium at
40-60% with a ~25% chance for up to a couple inches. For Hwy 395,
probabilities for measurable snow remain low at less than 25%. In
addition, given the notable increase in daytime road heating
(which would make any snow melt quickly on roads) this time of
year, very light snowfall rates, and the fact that trans Sierra
passes remain closed, little or no impact is expected for travel
in Mono County Wednesday...especially along and east of Highway
395. The only caveat along Hwy 395 is well after dark Wednesday
when any roads that remain wet could see slick patches as temperatures
fall below freezing.

A ridge axis rebuilds over eastern CA and Nevada Thursday. A
moderate south to southwest flow returns to the Sierra with some
breezes mixing into the valleys Thursday afternoon with some warming
into the lower 60s. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Friday onward...

* Friday promises to be another mild day with daytime temps about a
  month ahead of normal. With gusty south/southwest winds and if
  clouds hold off long enough, we could see max temps get into the
  90th percentile of NBM guidance ranges. That would yield upper 60s
  RNO, mid 70s NFL, and mid/upper 50s for mountain communities from
  Tahoe to Mammoth Lakes.

* Saturday`s storm is still on track with a quick-moving negative
  tilt wave coming off the eastern Pacific. No major changes here
  with ongoing forecast. Good bet for mountain snow accumulations
  and travel impacts but the speed of the storm will limit amounts
  to a few inches at pass elevations with an inch or two for
  mountain communities. Pretty shadowed setup so I am
  anticipating just light rain showers for W Nevada coupled with
  breezy SW winds.

* Next week is really starting to look more interesting with broad
  cold upper trough settling in over the region. Latest NBM and
  ensemble guidance brings periods of snow to both mountains and
  valleys with colder than normal temps. Best odds look to be
  Monday evening through Thursday. Could rack up decent snow
  accumulations in the Sierra but water content won`t be overly
  impressive with minimal IVT signals. Non-trivial odds in NBM of
  seeing at least a few inches of snow in the W Nevada cities as
  well but that may be driven more by diurnal instability and
  remain scattered. Looks like next week will feel more like that
  "winter in March" that we all know and love.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* Upper low swinging through SoCal will send mid and high clouds our
  way through tomorrow. Most areas won`t see any significant weather
  and winds will generally be light.

* The one exception is over the E Sierra, near MMH, where NAM and
  HRRR high resolution guidance is showing decent instability
  Wednesday afternoon. This should result in scattered snow and
  pellet showers from Bridgeport southward. Most of the activity
  will be along the crest with mountain obscuration; however,
  we`re looking at about a 40% chance of seeing MVFR-IFR snow
  showers at MMH between 22z/Wed and 4z/Thurs. Accumulation
  potential appears minimal with NBM guidance indicating about a
  10-20% chance of up to 1" if a heavier shower occurs over the
  airfield.

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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