Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 132144
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
144 PM PST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain and high elevation snow with gusty winds will continue
through Saturday morning. Snow levels will gradually drop with
significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra by sundown this
evening. After a short break Saturday afternoon, more moisture
moves in with a chance for light snow down to all valley floors
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A break in the wet
pattern is anticipated for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Taking a look at current radar this afternoon, precipitation
remains in northeast California and the Sierra with some light
spillover making its way out near Gerlach, Lovelock, and Fallon.
Snow levels this morning started out at around 6300 feet with
light snowfall reported at South Lake Tahoe airport and now are
hovering between 6800-7500 feet. Levels are expected to decrease
gradually down to Lake Tahoe level (~6000 ft) from now through the
evening hours as colder air ushers in from the northwest.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Tahoe Basin for
areas above 6500 feet until Saturday morning. Not many changes
were made to the forecast this afternoon regarding snow totals
around the Tahoe Basin and along the Sierra crest down into Mono
County. Still anticipating 3 to 8 inches between 6500-7000 feet
and 6 to 12 inches above 7000 feet. Higher amounts of up to 2 feet
are likely along the Sierra crest with lighter amounts of 1 to 2
inches around lake level.

The main push of moisture is expected from now until Saturday
morning along the storm`s cold frontal boundary. Once the front
makes its way through the region from the north, leftover snow
showers are likely to linger during the day on Saturday with snow
levels down to all valley floors at that time. Recent short range
model guidance (NAM 3km & HRRR) has picked up on a secondary wave
of moisture pushing through the region Saturday evening and
lasting until early Sunday morning. Higher confidence exists in
this wave providing sufficient forcing enough to form a narrow
band of precipitation starting just north of the Tahoe Basin and
stretching east towards the Lovelock/Fallon area by sundown
Saturday. POPs and snow amounts have been increased in these areas
to reflect the possible formation of this band. A light snowfall
of up to an inch is forecast at this time enough to cause travel
hazards for area roadways...this includes the Reno-Sparks metro
area. Lower confidence in how long this band will last, as models
currently have it moved out of the region just before sunrise
Sunday morning.

As for winds...gusty conditions remain across the region with the
strongest along Hwy 395 in Washoe Valley, the Sierra crest, and
in Mono County along the eastern Sierra. Lake Wind Advisories
remain in effect for both Tahoe and Pyramid through this evening.
Winds are expected to begin decreasing in intensity later tonight
for the western Nevada valleys as the main front pushes through
from the north. Breezy conditions are likely to last for most of
the weekend.

The low pressure trough exits the region by Sunday afternoon,
being replaced with a short wave ridge from the west. Partly
cloudy skies and cold temperatures will be the main story for the
beginning of the work week with highs forecast to be 5 to 10
degrees below average for Monday and Tuesday. -LaGuardia

.LONG TERM...next week...

A few changes were made to the long term, mainly to reduce the
chances of precip for Wednesday and later in the week. The
Wednesday storm is splitting and weakening rapidly as it moves
in. It is also trending on a more southward track. We have kept
low chance to slight chances of snow in the Sierra into Thursday
morning, but have kept it dry for the rest of the area. Winds with
this system will be negligible aside from some modest increases
over the Sierra ridges.

The next storm for late in the week and into the weekend is not
looking as impressive either. The main AR portion of the storm is
now looking to remain north for Thursday and Friday. We will keep
the threat for rain/snow north of I-80, although keep the chances
somewhat subdued. After that, the storm splits with a closed low
off the coast that may slowly move in next weekend. One thing to
watch will be if the models trend south with the initial AR part
of the storm Thursday and Thursday night. If this were to occur,
it will be significantly wetter and windier for the Sierra and
northwest Nevada. X

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR to IFR CIGS/VIS will continue for the Tahoe area terminals
especially thru 06Z. Most precip will fall as RA but some SN could
mix in with heavier precip bands before 06Z, and after 06Z when
colder air arrives but precip intensity decreases. Farther south
at KMMH, winds will be stronger especially thru 00Z, followed by a
shorter period of MVFR conditions late tonight into early
Saturday AM. Snow accumulation on Sierra terminal runways is
expected to be 1" or less.

MVFR CIGS are also possible for western NV terminals at times thru
06Z during periods of steady RA, with mountain obscurations into
Saturday AM. A period of increased winds with areas of turbulence
is likely to continue overnight thru midday Saturday.

We will have a short break in the weather on Saturday, with
another round of lower CIGS/VIS, mountain obscurations and light
snow possible for all elevations including western NV Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Winds are expected to be lighter with
this quick period of snow. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Pyramid Lake
     in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in
     NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday above 6500 feet
     in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in
     CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday above 6500 feet
     in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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