Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 171010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
310 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019


After a lull in the weather today, another low pressure system and
cold front is expected on Wednesday, however not as strong as
Monday`s system. Light rain and high elevation snow showers are
possible Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty winds are possible
Wednesday afternoon with cool and below average temperatures
expected through Thursday.



A break in the weather is on tap today as lighter winds and
decreased clouds will be in place ahead of the next low pressure
system slated for Wednesday. High temperatures will increase a few
degrees today but remain about 10 degrees below average for mid
September. Highs across western Nevada will generally stay in the
low 70s while Sierra valleys will see mid 60s.

The next low pressure system is expected on Wednesday but won`t be
as strong as what we saw with Monday`s strong cold front. High
clouds will increase tonight ahead of the incoming low with light
precipitation possible mainly north of I-80 through Plumas, Lassen
and northern Washoe counties Wednesday morning.

Rain accumulations of about 0.25-0.50" are possible in these
areas through Wednesday evening with around a 0.10" expected
through the Tahoe Basin and a few hundredths across far western
Nevada. Increasing instability aloft will allow for isolated
thunderstorm formation and have expanded chances through the
afternoon. Light snow showers will be possible at higher elevations
with snow levels dipping to around 8,500` by Wednesday afternoon.

Gusty winds are expected as well with this system as a cold front
moves through but again not as strong as on Monday. Overall
looking for gusts on Wednesday to be in the 30-40 mph range with
highest gusts concentrated along the Tahoe Basin and through the
Highway 395/I580 corridor. Hazardous boating conditions are
expected on Wednesday and some travel restrictions are possible
for high profile vehicles.

Brisk northerly flow will remain behind the cold front on Thursday
with lingering instability and upslope flow resulting in
additional light rain and mountain snow showers across the
region. High temperatures will remain about 10-15 degrees below
season averages Wednesday and Thursday with mid to upper 60s
across western Nevada and mid to upper 50s for Sierra valleys.

.LONG TERM...Friday into next week

A couple changes were made to the forecast this morning. One to add
showers near the Oregon border Sunday afternoon and evening and the
other to cool temperatures on Monday. Models in reasonable agreement
with short wave ridging for Friday/Saturday behind the low, but then
diverge somewhat for Sunday/Monday with a trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest.

Friday/Saturday will see warming temperatures, back closer to
average by Saturday. Winds will also be light, and more from the
north to northeast, driven by the low level pressure gradient. They
look like two pleasant early autumn days.

Sunday into Monday, the ensembles are showing a better chance of the
Pacific Northwest trough digging into the Great Basin this morning.
The deterministic EC/GFS are much more aggressive with the digging
than most ensemble members, with some ensemble members keeping the
wave well north and east with the East Pacific ridge dominant. We
will continue to stick closer to the ensemble means showing the
digging to the east. For now we added the showers to the Oregon
border with cooling for Monday associated with the backdoor front on
the ensemble trajectory. To give an idea of the wide range of
solutions, the GEFS shows a KRNO high temperature range of over 30
degrees, from the mid 50s to upper 80s depending on the ensemble
member. X



Much quieter today with VFR conditions aside from some FG/FZFG in
some Sierra valleys through 16Z, including KTRK. Winds will be light
today, but increase Wednesday. Peak gusts of 25-30 kts are possible
at area terminals, with the strongest expected around KMMH. Mtn wave
turbulence will occur along with light LLWS near the Sierra. More
showers Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with areas of MVFR CIGS
in the Sierra and mtn obscuration. X


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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