Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 311028
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
628 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Clouds moving westward from the Atlantic are not quite as low as
originally thought they would be so cut back on mention of MVFR
during the day. Do expect some SCT to BKN clouds though,
particularly across VLD, ABY and TLH but more likely they will
remain VFR. Some lower MVFR cigs though will be possible late
tonight. A stray shower near VLD cannot be ruled out this evening,
otherwise precipitation is not expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure centered over the northeast this morning will slide
eastward into the Atlantic today. This will veer our surface winds
more towards the east, increasing low level moisture later today
into tonight and this is reflected in model soundings which show a
shallow layer of low level moisture. As a result, cloud coverage will
increase some for today, with scattered to sometimes broken
coverage, particularly across the northeastern portion of the CWA
with an increase to broken cloud coverage tonight. Despite
increasing moisture, precipitation is not expected today, however a
stray shower moving in from the east will be possible near the
Valdosta to Fitzgerald area tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Main story through the short term revolves around a strong fall cold
front at end of the weekend. Zonal flow aloft on Sunday will
transition to cyclonic flow as a large upper level trough
amplifies across the northeast US. At the surface, light easterly
flow will quickly become northerly through the day as a cold
front moves through. No rain is expected with this cold front but
a strong push of cooler and drier air will lead to much colder
conditions overnight Sunday and into the day on Monday. High temps
will drop from the upper 70s on Sunday to the low to mid 60s by
Monday. These high temperatures will likely be the coldest of the
fall season. The cool weather sticks around for Monday night as
the surface high behind the front settles into the region. Clear
skies and dry air will allow good conditions for radiational
cooling, especially if the center of the surface high settles in
over the region.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

For much of the upcoming week dry conditions are expected to continue.
The main theme will be a slowly modifying airmass as
northeasterly flow occasionally gives way to warmer easterly flow
across the region. In the upper levels, dry air and little
forcing will keep the drier pattern in place. By the end of the
week, high temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s.


.MARINE...

North and northeast winds will prevail through much of the next
week. Winds will be around 10 knots and seas around 2 to 3 feet
through much of the weekend, but hazardous marine conditions are
expected to move in Sunday night behind a strong cold front.
Winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots and seas will build to 4 to
7 feet with the highest values in offshore waters. This will
likely lead to advisory level conditions on Monday, with
cautionary conditions likely to continue through much of the
week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will mainly be dry over the next two days with only a
small chance of showers across the south central Georgia area
tonight into tomorrow. Red flag conditions are not forecast.


.HYDROLOGY...

Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist through the
weekend and into next week. As a result, we continue to anticipate
no flooding concerns at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  61  78  47  65 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   76  62  77  49  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  56  73  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        71  59  74  43  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      73  61  78  46  64 /  10  20  10   0   0
Cross City    80  63  82  50  67 /   0   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  76  64  77  50  67 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs


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