013
FXUS62 KTAE 211924
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

The region will continue to remain on the northwest quadrant of a
mid and upper level ridge that is currently centered over central
Mexico. In conjunction with the mid and upper level ridge, a surface
high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to impose an
easterly wind across the region. Overall, the pressure gradient over
the area will generally remain very relaxed, which will lead to very
light to near calm winds. With calm winds outside of easterly surges
from the Atlantic seabreeze, there will be the potential for patchy
fog across portions of the Florida Panhandle, and I-75 corridor
Wednesday morning. Overall, outside of the patchy fog, Wednesday
will generally be a calm day high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm to hot conditions continue through the period with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to near 70 and daytime highs in the lower 90s.
Little to no rain is expected.

A strong H5 over Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will build
northeastward over Florida and the Southeast. This results in dry
and hot weather over the region. At the surface, the high nudges a
little more south, which causes the easterly winds at the beginning
of the period to turn more southerly during the day Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A continuation of warmer than normal conditions is expected as we
head into Memorial Day weekend. Daytime highs will generally top
out in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows warming in the
lower to middle 70s. There is a small, less than 20 percent,
chance of showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze each
afternoon. A slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms
is possible Monday as a disturbance passes north of the area. In
other words, very summer-like here across the region for the final
weekend of May.

A stout H5 ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will slowly get
pushed west over Mexico over the weekend and into early next week.
This opens the door for a few H5 disturbances to pass north of the
region. Guidance suggests the first disturbance to pass through the
Southeast Saturday into Saturday night with another one sweeping
through late Monday into Tuesday. While these disturbances are
forecast to sweep north of the region, they are close enough to
increase rain chances slightly over the weekend and will need to be
monitored in case things trend south over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions look remain through today and tonight, with LIFR
conditions developing at VLD overnight. Some possible MVFR VSBYs
look to develop at ECP towards the early morning hours; however,
there is more uncertainty in these restrictions developing, and
they could be removed in subsequent TAF updates. Overall, VFR
conditions look to remain at all other terminals through the
period, with clear skies developing overnight, and becoming
scattered through mid day tomorrow. Winds look to remain calm or
out of the southeast at around 5 knots or less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Easterly wind surges are possible the next couple of nights with
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible for waters east of
Apalachicola. Otherwise, favorable marine conditions are expected
into Memorial Day weekend as winds turn more southerly to
southwesterly Thursday and beyond. Seas will generally run less than
3 feet through the weekend. No rain or thunderstorms expected
through at least the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

With high pressure aloft, there will be no fire weather concerns
over the next several days. This is in combination of the well above
average rainfall a majority of the region has experienced the last
month. Transport winds will remain out of the southeast at around 5-
10 mph, while mixing heights reach near 5000 ft. This will lead to
non-concerning dispersion values across the area. Minimum RH values
will generally remain in the low to mid 40s across the area.
Overall, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Heavy rainfall from the weekend is still working through the river
system. The Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has dropped below minor
flood stage after cresting just over 16.5 feet. Downstream at
Concord, the Ochlockonee is now forecast to reach Moderate Flood
Stage later tonight as water from Thomasville works down the river.
The river will slowly crest through the middle of the week with
decreases below flood by late this week.

Rises on the lower Withlacoochee below Valdosta continue with it
cresting at Quitman on Wednesday or Thursday and Pinetta over the
weekend. Further downstream into the upper Suwanee basin, slow rises
into action stage and near minor flood stage are likely by later
this week and into next week as water moves downstream.

The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is forecast to crest in Minor
Flood Wednesday afternoon before slowly dropping into Action Stage
later this week. Otherwise, the rest of the rivers in the Florida
Panhandle and southeastern Alabama have dropped below flood stage
and will continue to drop the rest of the week.

No significant rain is expected in the next 5 to 7 days so expect
additional decreases on rivers once water moves its way through the
system this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   68  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        65  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    66  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  71  83  72  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108-
     112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Reese