


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
332 FXUS62 KTAE 201846 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 246 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Drier conditions are in place this afternoon largely due to drier north and northeasterly mid-upper level flow. This has allowed precipitable waters to drop to around 1.0 across our northeast counties near Tifton to around 1.5 along the immediate coastline. This dry airmass and subsidence has largely suppressed any convection from forming. With this dry airmass not forecast to really go anywhere through the next 18 hours, shower and thunderstorms will have a difficult time developing this afternoon and evening. The best chances will likely be across southeast Alabama, and our Florida counties where at least limited PWATS and seabreeze convergence supports some isolated shower and storm activity. Any storms that form should die off somewhat quick tonight given the drier conditions. As is typical in drier airmasses, if we can get thunderstorm development, any of the stronger storms would need to be watched for stronger wind gusts given higher DCAPEs in place. For tomorrow, low-level moisture return from the east and a slightly better moisture profile should allow a little more activity, but with the drier air mass still in place activity will again be mostly confined to out Florida and southeast Alabama counties. Like this afternoon, stronger storms could produce a brief strong wind gust given higher DCAPEs that are likely on Saturday. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A strong upper level high will move in overhead the forecast district this weekend. Easterly flow to the region, coming from the Atlantic can moisten the airmass to allow for PWATs to be just enough for possible isolated afternoon convection due to sea breeze interaction on Sunday. Peak heat index values may approach the local heat advisory criteria of 108F across portions of the Florida panhandle this weekend. Next week the upper level high will remain stagnant and similar weather patterns are expected to persist each day throughout the week. Dry air will bring minimal cloud coverage with temperatures forecasted to be above average for June, around mid to upper 90s, and lows around the mid 70s. Heat advisories are possible. Afternoon storms have the potential to flare up in interaction with sea breeze each afternoon but will have minimal coverage due to dry air and ridging over the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The only exception could be brief TSRA after 20z at ECP/TLH/VLD but confidence in the development of activity still remains quite low and it`s possible very minimal activity develops today. Light north and northeasterly winds expected through the TAF period except at ECP where a weak seabreeze will likely develop today. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf will result in a light south to southwest flow today. Heading into the weekend, the high shifts a little farther north, bringing in more of a light east to southeast flow. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the overnight and morning hours each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Dispersions will be on the lower side Saturday afternoon with dry north and northeasterly flow still prevailing. This should allow RHs to drop into the upper 30% and lower 40% range, especially across our Georgia counties. Storm coverage will be lower this weekend and mostly confined to our Florida and southeast Alabama counties. Despite the drier conditions, fire weather concerns should remain low given recent wet conditions. Easterly flow will generally prevail. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in storms each afternoon, which can result in quick ponding or localized flash flooding in poor drainage or low-lying areas. However, widespread flood concerns are not anticipated. Drier conditions are likely the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 94 74 93 / 20 30 10 40 Panama City 76 93 77 92 / 20 40 10 40 Dothan 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 10 40 Albany 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 72 95 74 95 / 20 30 10 30 Cross City 72 94 72 95 / 40 50 30 30 Apalachicola 77 90 78 89 / 20 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Merrifield