Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 152345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move through this evening with
showers. High pressure with dry weather will build in from the
west Tuesday. Another cold front will move through the region
Wednesday, followed by another high pressure system on
Thursday. Rain showers will change to snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
630 pm update...
Just minor changes. Cold front with showers about half way
through the cwa. Winds shifting and increasing. Temperatures are
still warm but will begin to plummet this evening.

230 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the next round
of rain showers late this afternoon through the early evening
hours...a narrow/weak band of lake effect rain showers north of
the Thruway Tuesday morning...cool conditions Tuesday, and then
the next round of rain showers Tuesday night.

A sharp upper level low and associated surface cold front are
tracking e/newd through the region this afternoon with an area
of rain showers currently over wrn NY. As the relatively strong
cold front sweeps through the region later this afternoon and
into the evening, rain showers will overspread the area.
Rainfall amts are expected to be relatively light...generally
less than a quarter of an inch.

Winds will shift to the W/NW tonight with a cooler/drier air
mass moving in. The colder air will help an E-W oriented lake
effect rain band set up across Lake Ontario...which will feed
into Oneida county...and potentially clip far nrn Onondaga and
nrn Madison counties with another round of light rain. There
could be a few flakes mixed in across far nrn Oneida
county...with no accumulation expected. Areas to the south will
see mostly clear skies with temperatures dropping into the mid
30s tonight.

High pressure builds across the mid Atlantic region on Tuesday
and the winds will back to the w/sw...which will lift any
lingering lake effect rain showers to the north and leave a
mostly dry day across the region. The air mass will be fairly
cold though...with highs only into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

A weak trough will move ewd across ern Canada Tuesday night and
brush a weak cold front along the Finger Lakes and into the wrn
Mohawk Valley after midnight. A few rain showers may spread into
this area...but the bulk of the precip associated with the next
upper trough will not be until after 12Z Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 PM Update...Turning much colder, windy and potentially
wintry for the short term period. First accumulating snowfall
possible for some locations Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs
will be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the mid-20s to lower
30s Wednesday night.

Wednesday: Surface cold front pushes through during the morning
hours, with steady or slowly falling temperatures by afternoon.
We`ll have a chance of showers as the front/trough moves through.
Cold air advection increases as 850mb temps fall to around -4C
by late afternoon and the main upper level trough axis
approaches. WNW winds increase between 10-20 mph, with gusts
25-35 mph expected in the afternoon. As lake induced
instability increases the precipitation will transition to lake
effect rain showers under a 285-295 degree flow. Looks like most
locations should stay all rain for ptype during the daylight hours.

Wednesday night: Favorable conditions for early season lake
effect precipitation continue. The flow veers to WNW (290),
then NW (310-320) toward Thursday AM. Strong cold air advection
continues with 850mb temps falling to -7 to -10C over the area.
With average Lake Ontario surface temps around +13C, this will
give lake delta Ts around 20-22C. With 700mb temps around -20C,
lake delta Ts of 30-33C are expected. This can be described as
extreme lake induced instability, with potential CAPE values up
to 800 J/kg indicated by the BUFKIT NAM soundings for a time
late Wednesday evening. The overall flow looks well aligned
through the boundary layer, with lake equilibrium levels up to
around 12K ft AGL or 700mb. The entire layer below 700mb is also
fairly well saturated, with strong Omega indicated in the
850-900mb layer. The best snow growth is above this layer,
generally in the 700-800mb layer. All in all, the set up is
looking favorable for moderate to occasionally heavy lake effect
showers during this time period. Would not be completely
surprised to see a few lightning strikes around Wednesday
evening as well. The main question now will be when/if the rain
will transition over to wet snow. At this time, best indications
are that the rain will begin to mix with wet snow in the hills
S/SE of Syracuse shortly after sunset Wednesday evening. Then,
after midnight the precip should be mainly in the form of snow
as the band slides south into the Finger Lakes and Susquehanna
region of Central NY. The last places to change over to snow
will likely be the lower elevations along the Finger Lakes and
immediate Syracuse metro area (on the Lake Plain). As far as any
accumulations: at this point the best chance to see a light
accumulation of a coating to perhaps 2 inches, looks to be
across the higher elevations south of Syracuse and into the
northern portions of the Susquehanna region in Central NY.
However, could see some very light accumulations over the higher
terrain all the way to the NY southern tier and western
Catskills. Any accumulations would be generally on colder,
elevated surfaces such as grass and trees. Will mention in the
HWO for now, as this could be the first (early season)
accumulating snowfall.

Thursday: Lingering lake effect snow showers on a 315-320 flow
in the early morning hours will be across the Finger Lakes down
into the Southern Tier of NY. Heights begin to rise and the flow
should gradually back, becoming WNW by midday as weak warm air
advection takes hold. Could see another dusting to 1" of snow
over the higher elevations in Central NY early in the morning.
Despite the weak warm air advection temperatures aloft remain
cold, and surface temps only reach the 40s by afternoon. This
should be just enough warming that any lingering light showers
transition over to rain in the afternoon. NW winds remain breezy,
10-20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 PM Update...Not a lot of change to the extended forecast at
this time. However, the latest 12z model guidance does seem to
be trending a little colder in the Sunday/Monday time period as
the next anomalously deep upper level trough moves through.
1000-500mb thicknesses are forecast to be sub 528dm across the
north- central portion of the area...and another round of early
season lake effect snow showers is plausible as temperatures
aloft again dip down between -5 to -10C.

Thursday night and Friday: will be dry under brief upper level
ridging and surface high pressure in the mid Atlantic region.
Highs on Friday will rebound nicely into the middle to upper 50s
under a moderating southwest flow.

Friday night/Saturday: The next cold front approaches the area
late Friday night then passes through on Saturday. Will continue
to show likely POPs on Saturday across the north and chance for
the central and southern locations. Highs on Saturday will be
in the lower to middle 50s.

Saturday through Monday: A low pressure system moving into eastern
Canada drags a cold front through the area, with rain showers
becoming more likely for the daytime hours of Saturday. This starts
to taper off Saturday evening as the front moves southeast of the
area. However, any lingering showers may begin to mix in with some
snow Saturday night into Sunday, particularly for our northernmost
and higher-elevation spots. Some lake enhancement is also possible
overnight into Sunday as winds shift to the N/NW. Mainly lake-effect
rain showers continue into Sunday, changing over to snow and a
rain/snow mix overnight into Monday. Our best chance at any real dry
period would be Monday afternoon, with winds shifting to the SW
ahead of the next system and ending any lake effect showers. Expect
temps in the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday afternoon before colder air
works in for Sunday and Monday. Morning lows Sunday and Monday are
expected to be in the 30s and even upper 20s, with highs mainly in
the low/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 pm update...

MVFR cigs in south central NY and AVP will improve to VFR this
evening except BGM which will be 7z. Skies here should become
scattered late tonight and continue into Tuesday.

Lake effect rain showers will set up for RME this evening and
continue through the morning. MVFR is possible at times.

SYR is VFR and should remain VFR through 00z Wednesday.

SW winds are shifting to the west and increasing to 10 to 15
with higher gusts. Gusty winds will continue until 7z then be
about 10 kts sustained late tonight and Tuesday morning. Winds
again increase to 10 to 12 kts with higher gusts around 15z.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...mainly VFR.

Wednesday into Thursday...more rain or snow showers and
restrictive conditions.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night to Saturday...Additional chances for restrictions
in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...HLC/MJM
AVIATION...TAC


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