Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211635

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

High pressure will remain in control through most of the week.
This will result in continued dry weather, along with a gradual
warming trend. Expect above average temperatures from midweek
into next weekend. Next chance of rain doesn`t arrive until
Sunday or Monday next week.



The growing season has ended for the Southern Tier of NY and
most of the northern Tier in PA with lows last night in the
upper 20`s and low 30`s.

 A 1035mb high remains anchored in place across New England
with surface ridging extending back into CNY/ NE PA. This will
keep skies completely sunny today, with maybe a few cirrus
arriving late in the afternoon from the west. Light east-
southeast winds under 5 mph expected.

More of the same for tonight, as a low amplitude upper level
ridge remains over the region. The surface high pressure remains
in place over the region, but gradually weakens as Hurricane
Teddy encroaches off the Atlantic Coast. This will keep skies
mainly clear, with perhaps some patchy river valley fog once
again. Went a few degrees below guidance for overnight lows,
with nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions under a
steepening inversion. Latest data and trends are going colder for
tonight under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Now have
forecast lows of 30-35, except upper 30s for the higher
hilltops, NW Fingerlakes, Wyoming Valley and Syracuse metro.

For Tuesday, our area will be under a weak high pressure ridge
extending back into the Tennessee Valley region. Meanwhile,
hurricane Teddy will transition into a strong extra-tropical low
and move north, toward Nova Scotia. For our forecast area, we
will be well removed from the storm, and under a region of
subsidence. An increasing pressure gradient will create some
slightly breezy northwest winds, between 6-12 mph through the
day. Skies should remain mostly sunny, with dry weather continuing.
Some of the model guidance suggests that more smoke aloft could
head our way as the upper level jet stream aligns across the
northern portion of the CONUS into CNY/NE PA late Tuesday. Was
unsure on if/when this smoke or haze aloft may arrive so did not
include any mention of it in the weather grids at this time.
Will have to monitor this potential. Otherwise, mild temperatures
with highs mid-60s to lower 70s.


300 AM Update

Staying dry with mainly clear skies for the midweek as high pressure
remains in control. Winds will turn a little breezy, however, as the
remnants of Teddy working into the Canadian Maritimes lead to a
tightening pressure gradient over the area. Otherwise, with 850 mb
temperatures at around 10C, a fairly summer-like day is expected as
temperatures peak in the 70s.

Temperatures fall back into the 50s and upper 40s Wednesday night,
and a gradual increase in clouds cover is expected ahead of an
approaching shortwave. As this weak feature moves through Thursday,
some stray showers would not be out of the question. However,
soundings are coming in quite dry, and with limited instability in
addition to the weak forcing, confidence remains low. Otherwise,
expect temperatures Thursday to peak a couple degrees warmer,
generally in the mid to upper 70s.


300 AM Update

Staying dry thursday night into Friday with the sprawling
surface high starting to move offshore and flow aloft shifting
to the southwest. This will allow for weak 850 mb warm air
advection with temperatures in the 10 to 12 C range. Look for
lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s with highs in the 70s.

Much of Saturday stays dry, but a chance for showers and perhaps
some thunder will return into the evening as a shortwave passes
through the mid Atlantic. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue into the end of the forecast period as models depict a
deepening trough over the Upper Midwest that would help to advect
more moisture into the area. Otherwise, expect highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s for the weekend.



All sites but KELM: VFR throughout the TAF period with winds
generally under 10 knots, perhaps some northwest wind gusts in
the 10-15 knot range after 14Z Tuesday.

For KELM: Conditions look a little more favorable for fog
restrictions overnight in the typical 09-13Z Tuesday than what
we had this morning. Some uncertainty is present in how low the
restrictions will go. IFR visibility restrictions appear most
likely for a time in the 09-13Z window.


Tuesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Possible
valley fog at KELM during the early morning hours.




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