Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 190929
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
429 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The sky will turn cloudy this morning, with rain developing mid
day through afternoon. The steadier rain will shift into mainly
Central New York tonight, and Northern New York on Tuesday, as
a warm front lifts through the region. This front will also
usher in near record warmth for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
355 AM update...
Near term period will feature an anomalous surge of warm air
advection, which will be accompanied by a wave of rain that with
time will shift northward with a lifting warm front. Record
highs are anticipated Tuesday.

High thin clouds are starting to drift into the region via
west-southwest flow aloft, but quite a lot of radiational
cooling has been able to counterbalance increasing warm air
advection, especially east of I-81 where temperatures are in the
20s and even a couple points in upper teens such as Sidney. Lows
have likely been reached however, and temperatures will drift up
for the remainder of the night as has already been occurring in
the Finger Lakes region. Penn Yan is now 35 degrees. Elmira rose
from 26 to 32 degrees from 2 to 3 AM. Strong pressure gradient
currently exists in our area between departing high and low
pressure in the Great Lakes, and above the shallow surface
inversion this is being realized with stronger winds at hilltops
and in south-to-north channeled areas such as in the Finger
Lakes. This wind just off the surface is also driving warm air
advection.

Warm front will develop in place today, as embedded wave aloft
also zips into the region. This will cause rain to break out
over all of Northeast PA/Central NY late morning through
especially afternoon. Temperatures will be surging above
freezing, but there is a very small chance that if any light
showers run out ahead of the main rain, spotty ice could occur
on the very front end. It is not expected, but it will need to
be watched closely. Additional smaller waves will run along the
warm front as it lifts north, taking showers primarily into
Central NY tonight- Tuesday morning, and even mainly just north
of the NY Thruway by mid-to-late Tuesday. Total rain amounts
today through Tuesday are figured to range from a few tenths in
Northeast PA-Southern Tier NY; to one-to-two thirds of an inch
for the remainder of Central NY. However, north of the NY
Thruway may push closer to a full inch, especially northern
Oneida County. Rain and snowmelt, especially coming off of Tug
Hill, will cause higher than usual flows in Oneida County, which
along with any lingering ice in waterways could lead to
localized flooding issues.

Despite initial cool temperatures, daytime highs of upper 30s
to mid 40s are expected today. However, actual calendar day highs
will likely occur as we hit midnight since temperatures will
continue to climb while we get deeper into the warm sector. By
dawn Tuesday 40s to low 50s are anticipated, and of course this
will be just the start. Except for upper 50s in northern Oneida
County and perhaps highest Catskill elevations, we are confident
in widespread 60s for highs Tuesday, and some of the lower
elevations towards the Finger Lakes could even get 70 degrees.
Daily records are 58 in 2016 for Binghamton Airport, 61 in 1951
for Syracuse, and 63 in1951 for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (Avoca
PA). We are currently forecasting those records to be broken by
between 2-5 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM Update...

The big story will be the near record temperatures with lows in
the 50s and highs in the 60s. Tuesday night will be dry but a
cold front with light rain will move through in the afternoon.
Most of the showers will be behind the front. Rainfall amounts
will be light.

These temperatures will continue to melt the snow adding to the
runoff. Rivers and streams will be high with minor flooding
possible. Ice jams will again be a wild card. Rivers will rise
enough so that the ice could move. The most water equivalent in
the snow is over northern Oneida County with 2 to 6". Higher
terrain in Chenango/Cortland Counties 1 to 2". Finally rest of
area mostly under an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM update...
Little change to the forecast. Continued leaving out the chance
of freezing rain Friday morning due to low chances and amounts
combined with being 4 days out.

Rain amounts Wednesday night to Friday light but steadier and
heavier rain Friday night will keep rivers and streams high.
Another batch of showers for Sunday.

previous discussion...
An anomalously warm, southwesterly flow pattern will continue
through the long term period.

After a cool/dry shot Wednesday night into Thursday,
southwest flow will set up again for the end of the period. A
few weak systems will pass through the region Friday into
Saturday, with the slight chance for mixed precipitation early
Friday. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the event and low QPF
numbers, we are not mentioning freezing precipitation for Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will continue overnight and through the morning, though with
very light variable to SE wind at the surface versus an
increasing SSW low level jet creating LLWS at times. LLWS will
back off mid morning-early afternoon as surface winds increase
out of the south at 8-16 knots, only to return mid afternoon
through evening. During the afternoon a warm front will be in
the vicinity with rain developing. Flight category will drop
into Alternate Required with KBGM-KAVP and possibly at times
KITH also into IFR ceiling this evening.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Tuesday...Periods of rain and flight
restrictions as disturbances move through the region.

Tuesday night through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of restrictions
and rain showers. Rain may mix with snow late Wednesday night-
Thursday morning for the NY terminals.

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with chance of rain
showers, possibly mixed with snow. Local restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP


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