Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 180606
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
206 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An expansive high pressure system will keep dry and pleasant
weather over the region through Friday. Skies will be mostly
clear, except for patchy early morning valley fog. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the week; with 70s today, then
reaching the mid to upper 80s by Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

Today: The cold front has moved out of our area, and is now
moving along the I-95 corridor. Behind the front much drier and
cooler air is filtering into Central NY and Northeast PA. Skies
are mostly clear with just some hints of patchy valley fog
beginning to develop...especially across the NY southern tier,
western Catskills and parts of NE PA. Any fog will dissipate by
mid-morning, with bright sunshine expected through the rest of
the day as a sprawling surface highs settles overhead. It will
be cooler with much lower humidity today (dewpoints 45-55).
Temperatures start off in the 50s around daybreak, reaching the
lower to mid-70s this afternoon. A few locations in the Wyoming
Valley region of NE PA could reach 80. Expect north-northwest
winds 8-15 mph through the day.

Tonight: High pressure remains in control of our weather with
clear skies and light winds. With a much drier air mass in
place (dewpoints in the 40s) overnight lows will also be quite
cool. Look for temperatures to dip down into the mid-40s to
lower 50s areawide. This is about 8-12 degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be firmly in place over the region on
Thursday and Thursday night. Winds will be light with the high
pressure overhead, with another sunny day with highs around 80.
Lows Thursday night will warm slightly up into the mid 50`s on
average.

On Friday, the surface high begins to slowly slide off the New
England coast. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge at 500mb develops
over our region. This pattern will help to establish a southerly
flow across our forecast area, with moisture/dewpoints gradually
increasing yet again. Dewpoints should reach near 60 Friday
afternoon, making it feel at least slightly humid once again.
Otherwise, temperatures continue to warm, reaching above average
levels. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s for most
locations. Skies remain mostly sunny, with perhaps just some
high clouds increasing from the west late in the day.

Friday night: An upper low over the Central Great Lakes and an
associated upper level trough over the lower Ohio Valley will
continue to slowly spin eastward. At the surface a stubborn
inverted surface ridge remains locked in place across much of
Central NY and Northeast PA. Very dry air in the mid-level will
allow our area to remain dry. Clouds will likely gradually
increase through the night...becoming at least partly cloudy.
Overnight lows should remain elevated under the increasing
southerly/Southeast flow. Look for lows to be in the lower to
mid-60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...Weather becomes active in the long term as
complex scenario develops. A closed low will drop into the
Great Lakes Saturday as a series of disturbances lift NE along
the coast. Surface ridging tries to nose in from New England
holding the rain out of the area for a time. Closed upper low
opens up and drifts east bringing an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday into Tuesday. Made
some minor adjustments to the long term grids based on the
latest guidance, but with uncertainty, no reason for major
changes at this time. Previous discussion continues below.


On the backside of the high, warm air advection with southerly
winds will bring in moisture into the region. The high pressure
will hang on enough to keep us dry through Saturday. High
temperatures will warm into the 80`s for Friday and Saturday
with warmer lows in the 60`s.

The overall mid-level setup is still the same as it has looked
the last few days. A trough will dig into the Ohio Valley with
a low pressure tracking up the east coast. Interactions of these
features are still uncertain. Showers from both of these will
likely overspread the area Sunday before becoming more
scattered for Monday and Tuesday. Some instability adds
thunderstorm chance for Monday and Tuesday as well. Heavy
rainfall is still the main concern with moisture advection off
the gulf and the Atlantic into our region. Went several degrees
below model guidance on Sunday with highs given clouds and the
likelihood for showers keeping them in the 70`s. Highs should
rebound into the 80`s Monday and Tuesday with lows each night in
this period in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Expect mostly clear skies with northwest winds less than 10 kts
for the rest of the overnight and early morning period. Could
see some patchy light valley fog INVOF KELM and KAVP...mainly
just tempo MVFR visibility expected.

Mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds of 8 to 15 knots are
forecast from mid-morning through this evening at all taf
sites. VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions
possible due to valley fog each morning, especially at ELM.

Late Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM/DGM
LONG TERM...DGM/MWG
AVIATION...MJM/DJP


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