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000
FXUS64 KCRP 202325
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
00Z aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions may be interrupted at times early Sunday morning by
some light fog and/or MVFR ceilings, mainly at VCT and ALI. Else,
an impulse moving west from the northern Gulf could spark a late
day storm near VCT tomorrow, but this threat is too low for any
further mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Warm and dry conditions will continue through the period as the region
remains under the influence of a mid level ridge. The ridge will start
over the southern plains tonight but drift to the west Sunday and be
near the Four Corners region late Sunday night. Persistence was
followed for temperatures, with afternoon highs 3-5 degrees above
normal on Sunday. Afternoon heat index values will range from 105
to 109 degrees over the Coastal Bend and Brush Country Sunday. An
inverted mid level trough axis over the northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight will move west Sunday and approach the coastal waters late
Sunday night. Any chance for rain will remain over the Gulf
Sunday night.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A gradual moistening up of the troposphere is expected through
Tuesday night ahead of a rare July cold front.  PWATs between 2 and
2.2 inches are expected by Tuesday as the front moves into the EWX
and HGX CWAs.  Initially isolated convection will only be possible
on Monday along the seabreeze.  However, convection will be more
scattered in coverage, perhaps a bit more across the northeast
areas, on Tuesday due to the boundary layer forcing from the
approaching front and associated higher moisture content.

The models, both deterministic and ensembles, have continued to
trend towards a drier airmass advecting into the CWA on Wednesday
into Thursday.  This appears reasonable as the front is likely to
push through the CWA, especially with the developing deep northerly
flow due to the ridge building in the Western US and the trough
building in the Eastern US.  Surface dewpoints will drop to at least
into the 60s (and perhaps mid/upper 50s across the Brush Country)
except lower/mid 70s along the immediate coast behind the front.  As
a result, will go with much lower POPs for the Wed/Thu timeframe.
Moisture will begin slowly advecting back towards the CWA beginning
late Thu night and continuing through the remainder of the week.
However, the deeper moisture will remain well offshore and so rain
chances will be mainly of the isolated variety.  Slightly "cooler"
temps are expected after Monday due to effects from the front.  For
a change, temps are actually expected to be slightly below normal
for the Wed/Thu timeframe.  A slow warmup is expected on Fri and Sat.

MARINE...

Thermal gradient will lead to brief period of SCEC conditions over
the southern bays and near shore waters from late afternoon into
early evening both tonight and again Sunday. Otherwise, a weak to
moderate onshore flow will continue tonight through Sunday night.
Isolated convection will be possible over the offshore waters late
Sunday night as moisture associated with the inverted mid level
trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico moves into the area.

Onshore flow will be weakening through Tuesday as the next front
approaches from the north.  With fropa now expected by Wednesday, a
wind shift to the N/NE is expected.  NE winds could get up to 15
knots on Wednesday but not expected to be at the SCA level.  Onshore
flow will gradually return by Thursday night into Friday.  Seas will
generally be in the 2-4 ft range during the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  95  78  93  77  /  10  10  10  20  20
Victoria          75  97  75  95  75  /  10  10  10  20  20
Laredo            77 104  78 101  78  /   0   0   0  20  20
Alice             74 100  75  98  75  /   0  10   0  20  20
Rockport          81  90  81  90  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           76 104  76 101  77  /   0   0   0  20  20
Kingsville        75  98  76  96  76  /   0  10  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

MCZ/93...AVIATION