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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191139 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions this morning. Will expect a
transition to prevailing VFR around 14-15Z. Sufficient moisture
will lead to ISO/SCT SHRAs/TSTMs today, especially toward VCT.
Will maintain VCTS wording at VCT for 18Z-00Z. Farther west
SHRAs/TSTMs are expected to remain more isolated so will maintain
only VCSH wording at ALI-CRP. ISO convection will be possible from
COT-LRD between 22Z THU - 02Z FRI, but coverage is expected to be
very low so will keep out of TAFs at this time. Sufficient
moisture in the lower levels will lead to another night with
VFR/MVFR CIGs, with model soundings even hinting at MVFR CIGs for
LRD-COT. General S-SE winds are expected, with gusts of 20-25 KTs
possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 501 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Sufficient moisture is in place today for isolated to scattered
showers or thunderstorms as PWATs from GOES imagery show nearly
2.0 inches across the the Gulf waters and coastal region. With
remnants of Imelda moving to the northeast, a weak boundary is
expected to slowly push south through Central Texas. Will expect
best coverage for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
Victoria Crossroads region due to proximity, while farther west,
isolated activity is expected. Moisture should be sufficient
enough along the sea breeze to allow for isolated showers/storms
across the Brush Country this late afternoon/early evening. Will
expect activity to diminish this evening with the loss of heating,
only to redevelop across the gulf waters after midnight. Moisture
will still linger for Friday to keep isolated to scattered
coverage as well.

Temperatures will continue to run warm, with highs in the low to
mid 90s across the Coastal Plains, and near or slightly above 100
degrees for areas generally west of Highway 281. Heat index values
are expected to range between 105 to 109 degrees area-wide, with
locations across the southern Coastal Bend briefly reaching 110
degrees at times in the afternoon. Friday, temperatures should be
a degree or two cooler mainly due to the increased moisture and
expected cloud cover.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Modest moisture levels will remain over the coastal waters into the
coastal plains late Friday night into Saturday. The models depict a
weak mid level shear axis over the western Gulf of Mexico will drift
west into the Coastal Bend Saturday. Expect isolated convection will
form over the coastal waters Friday night and move inland before
daybreak with a slightly better chance for convection during the day
as the weak shear axis moves inland.

Rain chances will be limited for Sunday through Tuesday as the mid
level ridge builds into the region from the northeast. Enough
moisture will linger along the coast to continue to show a slight
chance of convection with the sea breeze each day. Dry conditions
are forecast for Wednesday as region will be underneath the weak
ridge between a weak mid level low over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a strong upper low over Arizona. Afternoon heat index values
will range from 105 to 109 degrees over the Coastal Bend into the
Victoria Crossroads Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE...

A moderate onshore flow will continue today through Friday night
with a general weak to moderate flow persisting over the weekend
into Monday. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are expected
today, with isolated to scattered activity Friday. Good moisture
levels along with a weak upper level disturbance will lead to
scattered showers or storms over the marine areas Saturday. The
convection will be more isolated for Sunday through Tuesday as a
mid level ridge builds into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  78  94  78  92  /  20  10  20  20  30
Victoria          95  77  92  76  92  /  40  20  30  20  30
Laredo           101  78 100  77  98  /   0  20   0  10  10
Alice             99  77  97  76  95  /  20  10  20  20  30
Rockport          92  80  92  80  90  /  30  20  40  20  30
Cotulla          102  78 100  77  99  /  10  20   0  10  10
Kingsville        99  77  97  77  94  /  20  10  20  20  30
Navy Corpus       92  80  90  81  89  /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION