286
FXUS64 KCRP 110229 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
929 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Several coastal sites and buoy 42019 suggest a predominate Small
Craft Exercise caution condition, which is consistent with the NAM
and RAP deterministic runs. The RAP/NAM winds over the waters are
predicted to decrease somewhat by 09z Saturday. Nevertheless,
decided to increase wind over the waters to the Small Craft
Exercise Caution threshold of 15-20kt for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Saturday night.

A diffuse cold front that has either moved through or is just moving
through the region will continue over the region. The wind direction
and trough is south of BRO, while the thermal and moisture gradient
is just starting to move into the northern Brush Country and the
Victoria Crossroads. If you use the 850 temperatures as a proxy, the
GFS has the front part way through the Brush Country and the Rio
Grande Plains by 12z/Sat, while the ECMWF holds the front back to
the northwest. In either case, the front will slowly move through or
fizzle over the next 36 hours. This leads to the chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially with PWAT values of 1.5-1.8"  over the
region. Saturday night, the a 500 mb shortwave trough begins to move
east into west Texas, but at this point it looks like the
precipitation will stay out until later on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday

An unsettled pattern will be in place through Sunday and Monday as a
mid-level low pressure center moves out of the Rockies and into the
Central US. Shortwaves rotating through the flow associated with
this low will help to give us some rain chances, though the best
rain chances will continue to be over northern parts of our forecast
area (mainly the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
Moisture will be streaming northward with continued low level
southeasterly flow. PWAT values approach 2" for eastern portions of
our area, but a CAP in place will limit thunderstorm activity.
Higher resolution guidance that goes out through Sunday shows little
activity over our area. Another low end (20-30%) rain chance returns
Thursday as the ridge breaks down and we may actually get another
front approaching the area Friday.

Mid-level ridging builds for the middle part of the week with
warming temperatures and continued high dewpoints leading to
uncomfortable humidity. Heat index values around or slightly above
100 will be expected Monday through Thursday while high temperatures
will be in the 90s for much of the area, with mid and upper 80s
northeast. Monday looks like the hottest day west with temps at or
slightly above 100 in the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A transition to predominate MVFR ceilings are expected tonight and
this condition will continue through early Saturday afternoon,
followed by predominate VFR for the remainder of the TAF period.
Isolated showers may also occur late tonight through Saturday
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over
South Texas Saturday afternoon. Generally weak to moderate
northeast/east flow overnight/early Saturday, followed by
east/southeast flow for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected to persist
through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There
is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Saturday night. Weak to moderate southeasterly flow will continue
Sunday through late in the week. There is a 20-50% chance of
showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions
are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by late
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  85  76  90 /  30  10  20  30
Victoria          72  86  73  87 /  10  10  20  60
Laredo            75  90  75  97 /  20  20  30  10
Alice             74  87  75  92 /  30  20  20  30
Rockport          76  85  76  87 /  10  10  10  40
Cotulla           75  88  75  95 /  20  20  30  20
Kingsville        76  85  75  90 /  30  20  20  30
Navy Corpus       78  85  78  87 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...WC
UPDATE...WC/87