Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 202334
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through the period. Return flow is underway, with gradual
moisture increases and southeast winds that will become gusty from
late morning until just after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Rather pleasant conditions this afternoon for South Texas under a
mid-level ridge. South to southeast winds have returned to South
Texas as the surface high has shifted to the east. Moisture will
gradually return through Sunday night, however will already see
moisture returning in the upper levels in the form of thickening
cirrus. A few profile soundings suggest low level clouds late
tonight, but only expecting few to scattered low clouds tonight due
to slow moisture return. The low level clouds should lift and erode
through Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, a shortwave trough riding the
base of a mid-level trough across the Pacific northwest will move
east across the Desert Southwest tonight and nudge its way into the
Southern High Plains Sunday. This will help deepen the surface low
pressure system across the High Plains and in turn strengthen the
low level jet across South Texas late tonight. As temperatures warm,
will expect winds to mix down to the surface. Have strengthened
winds slightly, leaning toward the ADJMAV, as models tend to
undercut winds across South Texas. Winds are expected to be breezy
to windy, especially across the coastal region, although at this
time should remain below Wind Advisory.

Temperatures are expected to dip into the 60s tonight with slightly
warmer temperatures for Sunday night. Sunday, highs are expected to
range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast to the upper 80s
to low 90s across the Brush Country.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

The GFS and ECMWF deterministic models continue to predict an
upper disturbance to move eastward across the Southwestern United
States Monday through Wednesday, with the bulk of the synoptic
scale lift over the CWA Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge with
respect to the speed of the upper system beginning Wednesday
afternoon, with the ECMWF moving somewhat faster. Will defer to
the ECMWF and thus will forecast rapid drying/strong subsidence
Thursday from west to east across the CWA/MSA as the upper system
moves east. Expect dry conditions to persist Friday/Saturday.

MARINE...

Deepening of low pressure across the High Plains will lead to
strengthening onshore flow. SCEC conditions are expected to develop
across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters tonight and persist through
Sunday night. Anticipate at least SCEC conditions Monday through
Wednesday, based on wind and/or seas. Expect an upper disturbance
to contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. As
the upper system moves east, weak frontal boundary is expected to
move across the Waters late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning. Anticipate that wind will remain below the SCEC category
after frontal passage. Drier Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    65  85  67  84  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
Victoria          59  83  64  83  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
Laredo            64  93  67  91  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             60  86  64  86  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
Rockport          68  80  68  81  71  /   0   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           60  89  63  88  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        63  85  66  86  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       71  84  70  82  72  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION


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