Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 161746 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

Main issue will be fog toward daybreak at usual spots (KALI and
KVCT). Based on model soundings and flow regime, looks like fog is
a good bet for KVCT and possible at KALI. For now, went with
1SM/TEMPO 1/2SM at KVCT and only 6SM/TEMPO 3SM at KALI. Otherwise
and elsewhere, winds back to a more S-SE flow regime this
afternoon as the high moves east. Looks like by or shortly after
sunrise a deck of mid clouds (3000-6000 feet) will be moving into
the area and have called for CIGS around this level. Morning wind
eventually become SE-SSE by end of the terminal forecast, after
mainly being light and variable overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

VFR through much of the TAF period as dry air remains in place.
Will see winds becoming more S-SE-ly today as surface high shifts
east. This will return moisture and clouds to the lower levels.
Dewpoint depressions currently toward VCT are closing in and may
see brief -BR right around 12Z. For tonight, dewpoint depressions
should be a bit more closer as moisture increases, especially
toward the coast from VCT to CRP. Mentioned at least 6SM VSBYs for
BR at VCT for now, but that could lower in the following TAF
issuances.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

A pleasant day in store for South Texas as dry air remains in
place. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm today through
Saturday as surface high pressure shifts east and onshore flow
resumes across the region. An area of low pressure across the
Texas Panhandle is expected to lead to strengthening of onshore
flow and result in an increase in moisture and cloud coverage.

Temperatures for today are expected to rise into the upper 60s
along the coast to the low 70s inland. Saturday temps should rise
into the low to mid 70s. Overnight low tonight will remain chilly
with lows in the upper 40s across the northern area from Cotulla
to Victoria, to the mid to upper 50s across the coastal region.

MARINE...

Light and variable winds this morning becoming onshore by this
afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight and
Saturday.

A cold front will push through the waters on Sunday night into
Monday morning bringing a moderate to strong northeast flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through middle
of next week. A coastal trough will develop early next week
leading to unsettled weather over the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.
Moderate north to northeast winds can be expected through much of
next week.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Moisture increases across the region heading into Saturday night
as weak sfc trough develops. This could lead to some showers
across South Texas and have kept 20 to 30 pops Saturday night.
Chances for rain will increase further on Sunday in advance of a
cold front. This boundary should move through the region by Sunday
night but then hang up over the Coastal Waters. A coastal trough
will then develop on Monday and linger into Tuesday, keeping
decent rain chances across South Texas, especially over eastern
parts of the area. Unsettled weather will also continue into
Wednesday as upper level shortwave trough quickly moves across
South Central and South Texas. Upper level trough axis should pass
off to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which will
bring an end to the rain.

Regarding temperatures, highs will be tricky on Sunday depending
on the timing of the front. For now, will keep temps in the lower
60s across the northwest zones to low 70s along the coast. Temps
could also be falling through the day Sunday with an earlier
arrival. Coolest day of the extended forecast will be Monday as
temps will only be in the 50s. Highs in the 60s can be expected
Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  55  76  62  69  /   0   0  10  30  60
Victoria          71  49  75  57  66  /   0   0  10  30  50
Laredo            72  51  75  59  66  /   0   0  10  20  50
Alice             72  51  77  60  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
Rockport          71  58  75  63  69  /   0   0  10  30  60
Cotulla           71  47  74  57  61  /   0   0  10  30  50
Kingsville        72  53  76  62  70  /   0   0  10  30  60
Navy Corpus       70  61  75  65  71  /   0   0  10  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM


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