Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 190033
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
733 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight - Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Just a very messy forecast with
periods of rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms. Expecting much
less activity at KLRD compared to our other terminals. Looking
like activity in and around KCRP/KALI will increase greatly after
05Z tonight with development a little later at KVCT. Could see a
lull in the heavier rain/thunder after 11-12Z but with daytime
heating, expecting more heavy rain to develop after 15Z. Could be
a band of nearly stationary heavy rain somewhere between KCRP/KALI
through much of mid-afternoon hours, but hard to exactly place it,
even at this time period. None-the-less, expect degraded flying
conditions through much of the TAF cycle with periods of heavy
rain and thunderstorms. Medium confidence overall.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing and moving across
South Texas today as a tropical wave approaches the coast. The
heaviest rains, so far today, have been confined to the Coastal
Bend and over the waters. We have seen anywhere from 2-4" from
Port Aransas down to southern Kleberg country. Deep tropical
moisture will continue to increase across the region through
tonight. The 18Z soundings showed a PWAT of 2.41" and is expected
to reach ~2.7-2.8" per model soundings. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the night but will diminish a bit as we lose
daytime heating. Activity will redevelop late tonight/early
Tuesday morning over the coastal waters and across the Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads before spreading inland throughout
the day. Decided to hold off of a Flash Flood Watch for now and
will wait to see how the additional development this evening and
tomorrow behaves. Our soils should be able to handle a lot of
rainfall due to how dry we have been over the past several weeks.
With that said, if any strong downpours do occur in a short period
of time, localized flooding will be possible.

Temperature wise, we will be in the mid 70s tonight with low 80s
along the coast. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler than normal due to
the increase in cloud cover with temps in the low to mid 80s
across the east and low 90s across the Brush Country.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday Morning)...

Winds will continue to pick up over the Gulf waters this
afternoon/evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
the nearshore waters until Tuesday afternoon and extended the
offshore waters until Wednesday morning. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the waters through mid week.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is also in effect for the beaches south
of Port Aransas as a result of persistent onshore flow and
increasing swells producing higher than normal wave run up. Water
will likely reach the dunes again this evening and tomorrow
morning, especially at times of high tide. Water was reported to
have reached the dunes at Padre Island National Seashore.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...

No significant changes in terms of the expectations on the impending
rain event. Mid/Upper level pattern remains very weak with a broad
circulation possibly opening into a trough. Copious moisture will
continue advecting inland with significant moisture convergence
through the coastal counties. As the upper level weakness moves
inland, the bulk of the precipitation will be shifting over land as
well. The period of heaviest rain in the long term range looks to be
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as some models indicate
the potential for a north-south band of convection to set up
oriented with 850mb moisture convergence and area of best
instability. Regardless of where any organized convection will set
up, expect showers and thunderstorms to produce very high rainfall
rates. We have already seen easily 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall
rates today...with even higher moisture still to come. Flash flood
watches may become necessary by Tuesday night or Wednesday if
rainfall ahead of that can saturate the currently very dry ground.
Total rainfall accumulation in the 7 to 10 inch range is still
expected through the coastal bend with some higher amounts in the
northern coastal bend. 3 to 5 inches will be common through the
brush country and 2 to 4 inches west.

The upper weakness should eventually begin to lift out of the region
by Thursday night and Friday significantly decreasing PoPs across
South Texas. Slight chance to low end chance pops will linger Friday
and into the weekend.

High temperatures will be in the 80s east with 80s to 90s west
through much of the week, beginning to increase into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  87  76  88  76  /  80  80  60  80  60
Victoria          74  85  75  86  75  /  80  90  70  80  50
Laredo            76  93  76  93  77  /  50  50  40  50  30
Alice             75  89  75  89  76  /  70  80  50  70  50
Rockport          78  85  78  87  79  /  80  90  70  80  60
Cotulla           75  91  75  91  75  /  40  60  40  50  30
Kingsville        76  90  77  89  77  /  80  80  50  70  50
Navy Corpus       80  85  79  85  79  /  80  80  70  80  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday For the following
     zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Tuesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Tuesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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