Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 182054
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

The upper level ridge centered over the south central U.S. along
with lower moisture over the region (PW values around 1.6 to 1.7
inches) will keep dry weather over the region tonight and
Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon/night the upper level ridge will
begin shifting eastward as an upper level short wave moves closer
to the region from the west. Weak onshore flow will strengthen
Wednesday evening/overnight, beginning to bring higher moisture
into the coast. An isolated streamer shower will be possible
across the coastal waters late Wednesday night. Temperatures will
be near seasonable throughout the period, with lows in the 70s and
highs in the low 90s.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Higher moisture will reach South Texas on Thursday as a weak short
wave trough moves out of northeast Mexico into the Brush Country.
Will start with low end chance PoPs for the area on Thursday. There
will be additional weak impulses in the southwest flow aloft to move
across the area Thursday night into Friday and interact with ever
increasing moisture as precipitable water values rise to around 2.25
inches. Better chances for rain will be over the Brush Country
Thursday night with PoPs increasing to 50 percent across the
northern half of the forecast area on Friday. The weak short wave
trough could stall over the region for the weekend keeping good rain
chances in the forecast. The mid level trough axis and associated
moisture axis is expected to drift east by Monday. Will reduce rain
chances to slight chance for the Brush Country while keeping chance
PoPs for the coastal plains. The trough axis weakens by Tuesday with
a weak upper level ridge settling in over South Texas. Still keeping
a slight chance for rain in the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures
will be slightly below normal for the latter part of the week into
the weekend before rising back to near normal by the end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  89  77  90  78  /  10  10  10  30  30
Victoria          73  92  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  30  30
Laredo            75  93  76  94  77  /  10  10  10  30  40
Alice             73  92  75  91  76  /  10  10  10  30  30
Rockport          78  89  79  86  79  /  10  10  10  30  30
Cotulla           73  91  75  91  75  /  10  10  10  30  40
Kingsville        75  91  76  90  77  /  10  10  10  30  30
Navy Corpus       79  90  80  87  81  /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM


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