Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 192217
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
417 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...
The area is experiencing a very rare persistence pattern similar
to the summer Bermuda High regime. In fact today`s temperatures
has a temporal offset of 72 days - May 2nd averages. Satellite
imagery detecting a well formed sea breeze cloud scape, again not
a feature we typically see in mid-February. Guidance in the
short-term is in good agreement with a large part of the area
reaching the lower to mid 80s through Wednesday away from marine
influences, and even those areas are warming as water temperatures
are now reaching the lower to mid 70s. Spotty light showers
possible on convergent streaks off the gulf flow through Tuesday
night, but better organization should take place as cold frontal
zone settles into the northern fringes of the forecast area
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...
Went closer to GFS solution this package as there are some
differences in the handling of the front. At this time, will show
a retreating front drawing the convection out of the area for
another warm to hot day Thursday and a return to Bermuda Ridge
flow pattern through Friday evening. Continental high over the
Plains finally pushes a front Saturday evening to bring
temperatures back to near normal levels for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds should continue to break up this afternoon. Winds will be
slightly elevated today and tomorrow as onshore flow continues.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon into the evening.
Tonight expect status and patchy fog to develop again. Expect MVFR
to periods of IFR conditions possible tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much change in the forecast. Tonight we will have a low status
deck or perhaps some light patchy fog. Winds will be elevated with
onshore flow. Exercise Caution headlines will be up for a decent
portion of the coastal waters.  The next cold front will move toward
the coast and stall well north of the coastal waters Wednesday
before moving back to the northwest, then stalling once again over
the central plains states. This will simply help maintain the
onshore flow through the week. The front will finally push into the
waters by Sunday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
       visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
      tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  80  67  80 /  10  20  20  70
BTR  69  81  68  82 /  10  10  20  50
ASD  68  79  68  80 /  10  20  20  40
MSY  69  80  69  81 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  67  75  68  77 /  10  40  30  40
PQL  66  77  67  78 /  10  60  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

24/RR
13/MH



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