Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 211726
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions outside of limited convection, which appears to be
mostly showers with more isolated TSRA at this time. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 731 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...The moisture and wind profile of the
atmosphere has not changed much since the 00z sounding with
precipitable water values still around 2 inches and deep layer
southeast flow still in place. Lapse rates also remain somewhat
weak with a 850mb to 500mb lapse rate of only 5.7C/km observed.
However, even with the weaker mid- level lapse rates there is a
higher degree of overall atmospheric instability in play. This is
most noted by the relatively low convective temperature of 85F,
and higher MLCAPE value of 2065 J/KG. Given these ample moisture
in place and a somewhat higher degree of instability, more
convective coverage can be expected today. However, the amount of
convection should be somewhat lower than typically expected with
precipitable water values around 2 inches due to the weaker mid-
level lapse rates and instability. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  90  71 /  40  10  60  20
BTR  91  73  91  72 /  50  10  60  30
ASD  92  73  90  72 /  40  10  50  20
MSY  91  76  90  75 /  50  10  60  30
GPT  90  75  88  73 /  30  10  50  20
PQL  91  74  90  72 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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