Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 292210
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
410 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...

Northwest flow aloft and broad surface high pressure will continue
to be over the central Gulf Coast region through mid week. Clear
skies and light to calm winds will lead to another cold night
tonight with lows ranging from the mid 30s to upper 30s over most
northern areas to mostly 40s south and far west. NBM guidance is on
the high side compared to MOS guidance, so have favored the MOS
since to correct the typical NBM warm bias in this pattern.
Additional weak shortwave troughs/impulses will move southeast
across the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Thursday, and
that will start to bring some periods of partly cloudy skies,
especially by Thursday. Airmass will remain way too dry for any
rain. The cool airmass will be modifying Tuesday through Thursday
which will allow temperatures to return to near to above
normal/seasonal values for early December.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...

The central Gulf Coast region will transition from northwest flow to
southwest flow in the mid/upper levels Thursday night as a fast
moving shortwave trough approaches from Texas. This feature will
likely move through Friday night or Saturday morning followed by
possible additional minor disturbances either in northwest flow or
westerlies later Saturday through early Monday. This fast flow
pattern in both the northern states and southern branch typically
causes the models to have consistency issues, so confidence in which
solution is correct remains low. Have basically stayed very close to
the NBM for rain chances during this period which at this point are
highest on Saturday with 30-40% PoP. Rainfall amounts are likely to
remain on the light side with thunderstorm chances remaining very
low.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies and mostly excellent visibilities are expected through
Tuesday at most TAF airports. The exception is at HUM where some
fog is forecast to bring a period of IFR for a couple hours near
to after sunrise. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue to allow the pressure gradient and
winds to relax through Tuesday morning with winds and seas
gradually diminishing. No significant weather system are expected
to impact the marine area through the week with most wind speeds
expected to be 10 knots or less with relatively flat seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  40  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  37  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  68  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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