Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 252102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
402 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020


Tropical Storm Zeta remains in the western Caribbean this
afternoon, and is nearly stationary. Locally, high pressure
currently extends along the Canadian border with a lobe from
northern Montana into northern Louisiana. However, there is
moisture trapped under a frontal inversion, which has left a
rather healthy cloud shield across much of the southern US. Took
into early afternoon to lose the clouds in most of the area, but
temperatures have rebounded into the mid 70s.



NHC forecast track for TS Zeta will be the driver of the forecast
in the short term. Next 36 hours should be fairly quiet, with any
significant rainfall not expected prior to midday Tuesday.
Southern stream shortwave will be the kicker to get Zeta through
the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Current forecast track
would be Galliano to around Bay. St. Louis, but don`t concentrate
on an exact path, as forecast error can still be fairly
significant at 60 to 72 hours. This would put the most significant
impacts across mainly the east half of the area during the
daytime hours Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Would expect watches to be issued Monday morning. Main concerns
will be winds and potential surge issues east of the track. Lesser
threats, but not zero, will be heavy rain and tornadoes. Storm
will be moving fast enough where rain threat may be a lesser
issue. Could be a fairly sharp cutoff on any heavy rain west of
the track of Zeta as shear impacts the storm. Current track would
put heaviest rain on the Mississippi coast.

Much above normal temps will continue ahead of the storm through
the short range period.



Behind Zeta on Thursday, southern stream shortwave moves through
the Ohio River Valley, bringing cooler and drier air into the area
with surface high pressue settling in over the weekend. Models
give some hint of an easterly wave moving across the northern Gulf
on Sunday, but not real confident on how much to bite off on that
solution quite yet, so will leave Sunday dry. Will use blended
guidance on temperatures for now, with Friday being the coolest
day. Temperatures near to slightly above normal by Sunday.



Looks like low clouds trying to surge southward across southwest
Mississippi, and may have to be more pessimistic across at least
northern terminals such as KMCB/KBTR/KHDC. Evening shift likely to
need to introduce MVFR ceilings in those terminals close to
issuance time, with at least some potential for IFR ceilings.
Visibilities don`t appear to be quite as much of an issue.



Expect easterly flow to continue through the daytime hours Tuesday
before conditions start deteriorating rapidly Tuesday night.
Should see some improvement by Thursday morning.


MCB  56  79  64  81 /   0   0   0  40
BTR  59  81  64  83 /   0   0   0  40
ASD  57  81  65  83 /   0   0   0  50
MSY  64  79  70  82 /   0   0   0  50
GPT  59  79  67  81 /   0   0   0  60
PQL  58  82  66  83 /   0   0   0  60



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