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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211134
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Dry and pleasant conditions will continue today and tonight as
high pressure remains centered east of our region. Temperatures
will be near to just a little below seasonal values under clear
to mostly clear skies.

Models are in good agreement moving an upper low over northeast
Oklahoma/southeast Kansas by 00z Wednesday, and slowing sliding
it east Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This will slowly
spread shower chances across the PAH forecast area late Tuesday
through Wednesday night. Showers will spread across southeast
Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then across the rest
of the PAH forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. The best chances will be across the southern half of our
region, where we went with high chances by Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with chances tapering to slights across our
far northern counties.

Increasing clouds will result in daytime highs dropping back a few
degrees on Tuesday, and another couple of degrees Wednesday as the
showers spread across the area. The clouds will bring overnight
lows up to seasonal readings.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

By Thursday, there is upper level trof formation across the Mid
Mississippi River valley, north of Beta and likely drawing in some
of her remnants. This leads to/supports a continuation of our
inherited pops, but her path is likely well south/east of us, so
we`ll stay non thunder and strictly chance cats on these tropical
elements for this package.

As the aforementioned trof flattens out to the east, mid/upper
ridging returns. The ridge shifts east over the weekend, and the
Gulf is open for return flow humidity. Surface dew points crank up
thru the 60s Friday, with some 70s flirting here and there over the
weekend. Pops gradually increase and thunder chances make a return
as a mean long wave trof in the northern stream dives our direction.
The start weekend return to the 80s mutes back to the 70s by the end
as clouds/pcpn increases over time, with a largely diurnal nature to
the peak pops. Cooler/drier air is poised to make a return behind
this trof passage, but that`ll be early next week, just beyond the
scope of this package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

SCT-BKN050 deck expected at KCGI/KPAH and possibly KMVN through
18z. VFR conditions expected at all sites, with increasing
mid/high clouds late in the TAF period. Winds will be from the
southeast to east around 5 kts or less, becoming light and
variable to calm after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...RST
AVIATION...RST