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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Shower/scattered thunderstorm chances will increase today as a
cold front drops southeast into the region. The highest chances
for a few strong storms will come this afternoon into the early
evening when diurnal heating will be maximized over our
southern/eastern areas. 0-6km bulk shear now expected to reach
30-40 kts, and could lead to a few stronger/organized clusters or
segments, esp over SPC marginal risk zones east of the MS River.

The front will likely stall out south of the region this weekend.
However, overrunning precip behind the front associated with a
southern stream mid level trof over the Southern Plains will keep
things rather damp, esp along our southern tier of counties
closest to the stalled out surface boundary. By the time all is
said and done this weekend, it is possible that some of our
southern counties could pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.
Luckily, it would be spread out over a 3 day period, so flash
flooding is not anticipated to be a big issue at this time.
Clouds/precip and a brisk northerly wind will help keep
temperatures well below normal this weekend. In fact, many
locations will likely get no warmer than the mid to upper 60s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

The GFS still pushes the cold front south of the area and now the
Canadian is starting to do the same only stronger with its southward
push. The GFS has slowed its southward push and tries to hang the
cold front back a little but not as much as the more consistent
ECMWF that never lets the front through the region. The mix still
keeps a chance of storms over the region. We will start off with an
inversion at the surface Monday but we will have elevated
instability with K index values in the 30s. As we head through the
week we will start to get some surface based instability with
slightly negative LI`s increasing with time and CAPE values finally
rising into the 1-2k j/kg2. So thunder will be included in all rain
chances in the extended. Essentially the cold front that will pass
through today will lift back as a warm front Monday. This will place
us not only in storms but also the warm sector allowing for
increasing instability. A second cold front will move through
Tuesday into Thursday bringing temperatures at or even below normal
for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Despite a cold front moving into the region from the northwest Fri
afternoon, conditions are expected to be VFR most of the time, with
only brief possible reductions in vsby with convection. Early
today, showers are forecast to begin entering the region from the
northwest, and may break up. However, with added instability in
the mid afternoon, a more substantial line of showers and
scattered tstms is expected to develop near the OH River and move
east. Toward evening, it appears shower activity will dominate
once again.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM