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000
FXUS63 KPAH 110005
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
605 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

As mid/upper level ridging continues to move into the PAH forecast
area, mid level winds will switch to the north-northwest this
evening, which will continue to sweep moisture in the form of
mostly thin cirrus clouds southward and out of southern sections
of the region. We will have another frigid night tonight with
lows in the lower half of the 20s. Clear skies will prevail
through the daytime Tue while winds pick up out of the southwest
10 to 15 mph ahead of a disturbance aloft and its attendant
surface features. A moisture-starved pressure trof is forecast to
sweep west-to-east through our region Wed morning. Very little
change in wind direction is forecast, but winds 15 to 25 mph
should be common.

The models have a history of showing some measurable pcpn with
this wave on Wed, but currently only indicate an increase in
cloud cover Tue night as the feature approaches. We could get some
sprinkles. A warm-up is certainly expected to begin Tue, with
highs 5-10 degrees warmer compared to this afternoon, and lows Wed
morning 10-15 degrees warmer than tonight`s lows.

Wed afternoon/Wed night, a major surge of moisture from the
southwest is indicated by the models in the warm advection pattern
ahead of the next substantial low pressure system. Rain is
expected to spread rapidly northeastward across at least the
southwestern half of the region after midnight. Lows Wed night
will be above or well above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Focus at the beginning of the period will be on a southern stream H5
Wave that will move east toward the lower MS Valley region by 12z
Friday. Associated surface low pressure is forecast to move from the
southern Plains 12z Thu to the lower MS Valley 12z Fri as well.
Meridional flow north and east of the low track will cause
moisture to surge northward, with a high likelihood of rain
Thursday through Friday and even into Friday night. The rain may
be locally heavy. Subtle difference in timing and the exact track
of this system will not alter much the high likelihood of
precipitation. We used a blend of the model suites from 00z
yesterday on, including ensemble means. The one model not used was
the CMC. Not including thunder yet. Some models show some
elevated instability moving toward the area from the south Friday.
Not enough confidence to include yet.

Over the weekend, the chance for precipitation will end Saturday,
with dry weather forecast Sunday into Monday. The aformentioned
system will move toward the southeast U.S. allowing mid level
ridging to build in coincident with a drier overall airmass. Again
the forecast was based on a model blend. As far as temps in the long
term, we stayed close to a MOS, raw model blend compromise. The
actual diurnal spreads should be lower than MOS. Temps running close
to normal for highs, a little above normal for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

VFR conditions expected through Tuesday afternoon. Will monitor
for some fog development overnight, but its looking pretty dry
right off the sfc. Nearly calm winds overnight will pick up out
of the southwest on Tue, to as much as 8-12 knots by noon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GM