Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 172347
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.UPDATE...

POPs were adjusted down for most locations during the evening
update. Activity has decreased significantly during the past
couple hours. The only exception is the Dixie County area is still
receiving rain. A Flood Watch is still in effect through tonight
for this area and may be extended longer. Flooding has been
reported in Steinhatchee and several roads are closed. Activity
will increase again overnight before daybreak, mainly over the
Gulf and near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

MVFR conditions are likely at TLH, ECP and VLD in the overnight and
morning hours. IFR conditions are possible at DHN and ABY.
Thunderstorms and rain will be widespread tomorrow beginning near
ECP in the overnight/morning hours and spreading inland by late
morning and afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [300 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern. While models do
show more moisture lifting northward into our AL and GA zones
overnight, the deepest moisture will be across our Florida zones
where PWs will be over 2.0". Will show a PoP gradient with slight
(20%) chance north to likely to categorical(60 to 80%) south. Patchy
fog (some possibly dense) will develop toward daybreak. Min temps
will be in the lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The upper trough or weakness between the two upper ridges will
remain over the southeast US. Southwesterly flow will continue to
pump deep tropical moisture into the area. A weak surface trough
over the northeast Gulf will continue to become more diffuse but
the area of higher PoPs and moisture will remain the eastern Big
Bend/Florida counties into Southern Georgia. Heavy rainfall
remains a concern where recent heavy rainfall has fallen and
heighten the flood risk. Perhaps the Big Bend gets a much needed
break from the recent rainfall Monday as the axis of higher
moisture shifts into southern Georgia and Alabama. With the
abundance of cloud cover highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
further south and low 90s further north with less cloud cover.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Persistent wet pattern to continue through the extended with no
major systems affecting the area at this time. Low level
southwesterly flow will continue to advect high moisture into the
area with PWATs around 2 inches each day. We will transition to
more summerlike regime with overnight convection over the Gulf
waters and seabreeze and mesoscale driven convection across land
areas during the day. PoPs during that time will be average to
above average and highs each day in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees.


.MARINE...

Winds will remain elevated overnight with small craft exercise
caution conditions in waters east of Apalachicola. Winds slowly
decrease over the next few days with seas falling as well.
Favorable marine conditions return for the start of the work week
outside of marine and coastal thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern will be in place through this week. No fire weather
concerns except some patchy morning fog.


.HYDROLOGY...

A flood watch remains in effect for Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties. A coastal flood advisory also remains in effect for the
Dixie county coast for minor inundation from the Gulf due to
persistent southwesterly flow. Inundation of 1 to 2 feet appears
possible around high tide this afternoon.

Widespread radar estimates of 8 to 12 inches of rainfall has
fallen over the past 48-72 hours across Dixie and southern Taylor
counties with the band of heavy rain continuing at this hour.
Another 2 to 4 inches is possible through tonight and tomorrow
with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches with
localized higher amounts across our FL counties and and extreme
southwestern GA over the next few days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  87  72  88  73 /  30  70  60  70  50
Panama City   76  86  75  86  75 /  60  70  60  70  50
Dothan        73  91  72  89  72 /  20  50  30  70  40
Albany        74  92  74  90  73 /  20  60  30  60  40
Valdosta      72  86  71  88  72 /  20  70  40  70  50
Cross City    73  85  73  85  73 / 100  60  60  70  50
Apalachicola  77  85  75  86  76 /  60  80  60  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Dixie.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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