313
FXUS62 KTAE 100528
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Heat builds Friday and Saturday with air temperatures in the middle
  90s and heat indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria, or 108
  degrees and above. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not
  have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted
  by the heat.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each
  afternoon through the weekend.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to return to our area
  beaches today and linger through Saturday. It is strongly discouraged
  to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach
  flags and advice of local officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

After a bit of a reprieve from the heat Tuesday, it comes back in a
big way the next several days. Daytime temperatures will run in the
lower to middle 90s each afternoon with overnight lows in the lower
to middle 70s. So there`s not much respite at night either. This
prolonged warm spell will lead to a Moderate to Major Heat Risk
across the area. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have
access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the
heat. The hottest days are currently forecast to be Friday and
Saturday. Afternoon temperatures these days will climb into the
middle 90s with heat indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria, or
108 degrees or higher.

All of this heat is thanks to a sprawling 591dm H5 ridge over the
northern Gulf Coast. Add in 850mb temperatures approaching 18 to 20
degrees Celsius and that supports surface temperatures in the middle
90s. The ridge begins to get pushed west later Saturday into Sunday
as an H5 trough moves over the Great Lakes region and pushes a cold
front into the Southeast. Seeing as it`s mid-June, the cold front
isn`t forecast to move through the area. However, it will bring a
return of better shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon
starting Saturday through the rest of the forecast period. With the
increased cloud and rain chances Sunday and beyond, temperatures are
forecast to be closer to normal, or the lower 90s for highs and
lower 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few showers and
storms will be possible across the FL Big Bend seabreeze in the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The Bermuda High continues to bring light to moderate
southeasterly to southerly winds across the northeastern Gulf
through Thursday. It slides closer to the Bahamas Friday, bringing
more westerly winds to our waters through the weekend. Seas will
generally be 1 to 2 feet through Thursday before increasing
slightly to 1 to 3 feet as westerly winds develop Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Hot and dry weather pretty much sums up our forecast through Friday.
Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 90s
with a low, less than 30%, chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the sea breeze in our Florida Districts. Heat
indices will be approaching 100 to 105 degrees Friday and slightly
higher for Saturday. MinRH will generally drop to between 40 to 50
percent each afternoon through Saturday before increasing slightly
Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will also increase Saturday
afternoon through Monday as moisture returns to the region. Easterly
to southerly Transport and surface winds are forecast through
Thursday before turning more westerly Friday and beyond.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

No significant flash or riverine flooding is expected the next
several days. Locally heavy downpours are expected within any
showers and storms that develop, especially Saturday into early
next week, with 1" to 2" of rain occurring very quickly.

Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of
the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the
most beneficial recent rains. The drought features long term impacts
that are affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below
normal despite recent rains. For more information on local drought
impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  73  94  75 /  30   0  20   0
Panama City   91  75  89  77 /  20   0   0   0
Dothan        93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10   0
Albany        93  74  94  76 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      93  73  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
Cross City    94  73  94  75 /  40  10  30   0
Apalachicola  87  75  87  77 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese