Area Forecast Discussion
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484
FXUS62 KTAE 221132
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
632 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

MVFR cigs near ECP and elsewhere in the FL Panhandle this morning
may hang in through around 21Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
prevail through the afternoon, but most sites will fall to MVFR
between 03-07Z. Moderate east winds today will become more
southeasterly overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [324 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A deep upper level trough and associated +PV anomaly will move into
the Plains today, developing a low pressure system that will sweep
towards the mid-Mississippi valley by this evening. As it does so,
it will increase low level winds and nudge the low level ridge
centered over the mid-Atlantic coastline eastward through the day.
Overall, this should make for a slightly windy day, with increasing
cloud coverage and a slight chance for showers off the Panhandle
coast. Highs will be mostly in the upper 50s and low-mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to trek
eastward toward our area Wednesday, crossing through the southeast
Wednesday night. Because of its quick forward motion and the timing
of its passage, instability will be weak- even weaker than we`ve
seen with the past few systems, peaking below 300 J/kg. That said,
it won`t be completely nonexistent, so can`t rule out isolated
lightning with storms Wednesday afternoon/night. In addition, 0-6 km
shear of about 50 kts, 0-1 km shear of 20-30 kts, and a low level
jet of around 40 kts will be present. This means there`s also a
low-end threat for damaging winds or an isolated brief tornado
with this system. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend in a marginal risk for severe
weather.

A much colder airmass will begin to move in Thursday in the wake of
the front. Lows will be in the 50s Wednesday morning, 40s to 50s
Thursday morning as the colder airmass begins to move in. Highs will
be in the 60s-low 70s Wednesday ahead of the system, but only be in
the 50s to low-mid 60s again on Thursday.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Colder air will continue to advect into the area at the end of the
work week as a ridge pushes into the southeastern CONUS. Lows will
be in the 30s Friday morning and upper 20s to low 30s Saturday
morning. Highs will be in the 50s both days. The ridge will weaken
as it continues to move eastward and another upper level +PV anomaly
quickly progresses across the southeastern CONUS. This will give the
area another quick chance of rainfall early next week, though with
only weak isentropic lift as the surface forcing, any rain will
likely be very light. Temperatures will peak in the mid 50s to low
60s Sunday and Monday, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.


.MARINE...

Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots will prevail through
Wednesday over our western waters, becoming south Wednesday night.
This will build seas to 6 to 9 feet by Wednesday. Winds will fall
below 20 knots Thursday morning, but will remain elevated through
Thursday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Due to very high transport winds ahead of an approaching cold front,
high dispersions will be possible Wednesday afternoon in the eastern
FL Big Bend. Otherwise, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
anticipated.


.HYDROLOGY...

None of our area rivers are currently in flood stage. Showers ahead
of a cold front will bring 1 to 2 inches of rainfall Wednesday
through Wednesday night. This new rainfall will likely bring many
rivers back into action Stage and possibly bring a few back into
minor flood.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  53  70  51  60 /  10  10  40  90  20
Panama City   62  57  68  47  55 /  10  20  80 100  10
Dothan        57  51  68  42  51 /  10  20  80 100  10
Albany        57  48  70  49  56 /  10  10  40  90  20
Valdosta      61  50  73  54  63 /  10  10  20  90  30
Cross City    68  54  75  58  66 /  10   0  10  90  30
Apalachicola  62  58  68  51  59 /  10  10  50  90  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



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