548
FXUS62 KTAE 161027
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
627 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in
over the Gulf from the western Atlantic. Thus, after some morning
clouds, we`ll have abundant sunshine but the heat is on again.
Highs will reach the mid-90s away from the coast with upper 80s to
near 90 along the coast. A muggy night is anticipated with another
round of clouds and patchy fog as a weak shortwave passes through
the Tennessee Valley. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Today`s forecast for TLH is 96, which would break the record of 95
set in 1915 and 1962.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

The ridge flattens over the weekend as a couple weak shortwaves
move across the Tennessee Valley. This could bring some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the northern fringes of the forecast
area, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Rain chances
are around 15-20% at most. We`ll have to see how upstream
complexes of storms evolve if they can make it this far south. The
environment on Saturday is characterized by ample instability and
quite a bit of DCAPE given mid-level dry air. There`s also
sufficient deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 kt. Thus, if
storms can make it to our area late Saturday afternoon and
evening, some strong gusty winds are possible in the strongest
storms. Could be a sneaky setup, and SPC does have our far
northern row of Georgia counties clipped by a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather. A similar environment remains in place
for Sunday as well. Temperatures remain toasty with highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Ridging returns again for Monday and Tuesday with heat remaining
the main concern. Highs remain in the mid-90s through Tuesday.
More substantial troughing begins to dig over the eastern US by
the middle of the week, bringing some reprieve in temperatures. A
cold will move across the southeast, bringing some scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the forecast with rain chances around
30-40%. The heat, as a result, will be less oppressive with
temperatures returning back to the mid to upper 80s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

IFR to low-end MVFR cigs continue at all terminals this morning as
an extensive stratus deck spreads over the region. Underneath,
some transient patchy fog reducing vsbys to MVFR at times is
possible, mainly near TLH and possibly VLD. Conditions should
improve rather quickly after 14z with all sites returning to VFR.
Some gusty SW winds up to 20 kt are expected at ECP and DHN this
afternoon with lighter winds anticipated elsewhere. Late tonight
into early Saturday morning, another round of low stratus and some
patchy fog is possible at all terminals, but confidence is low.
For now, have maintained MVFR conditions for all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern
Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for
the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day
with no significant marine impacts anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High dispersions are expected across inland areas over the next
couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around
10-15 mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon.
Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The
main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s
during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to
near 100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday
afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

No flooding is expected over the next couple of days. Some locally
heavy downpours are possible in some storms this weekend, but
these should be quick moving and should not result in flood
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   85  73  85  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        93  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      96  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    90  67  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young