Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
652 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

[Through 12Z Tuesday]

A brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible at the
terminals until around 14z. DHN will have the best chance
(30-40%) of seeing a TSTM today so went with VCTS starting at
18z. Otherwise, not enough confidence to include in the other
terminals. Winds will range from 10 to 15 knots today with higher



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The upper ridge that has been in place the past several days will
flatten by this afternoon allowing a more moist westerly flow
across the Tri-state region. Low level flow will remain from the
west to southwest. While global models show negligible PoPs for
today, some of the hi-res models (while varying in coverage and
placement) show convection spreading into our area this afternoon
from the decaying MCS currently moving into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This certainly seems plausible and at the very least,
scattered convection may fire up along an outflow boundary from this
system. This will have to be monitored but for now will show highest
PoPs (30-40%) mainly across our western zones. A few storms that
develop may become strong or briefly severe. However, no organized
severe weather is expected at this time. It will continue to be hot
with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 100 to
105 degree range.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms associated the decaying MCS will
gradually weaken and dissipate as they move southeastward across
the Tri-State area overnight on Monday. For Tuesday and
Wednesday, weak ridging over the region will keep most of the
convective activity at bay with only a few isolated thunderstorms
expected to develop in the afternoon. PoPs will remain slightly
below average for this time of year through Thursday.

Below average PoPs means sunny skies will prevail and allow for
another round of high afternoon temps to reach the mid- to upper
90s. Fortunately, dew points will be slightly lower than what we
have observed over the past week so, heat index values are likely
to not exceed the 100 to 105F range.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

By Thursday and into Friday, the aforementioned weak ridge will
dissipate and allow convective activity to increase across the
region. Sea breeze front forcing will drive most of the
convection through the period. PoPs are expected to return to
around average values for this time of year (40 to 50% range). Low
and high temps will be in the lower 70s and 90s, which are
typical values for this time of year.


Expect southwesterly winds today at around 10 to 15 knots and
wave heights 2 to 3 feet. Winds will become westerly at 10 to 15
knots by Tuesday afternoon and then northwesterly at around 10
knots by Wednesday. Wave heights will gradually decrease to 1 to 2
feet by Tuesday night. Chance of thunderstorms will exist through
the period with the highest chance of precipitation occuring each


Aside from high dispersion indices the next couple of afternoons,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


No major concerns through the period. Sea breeze driven, summer-
like pattern of precipitation will return on Thursday and
continue through the weekend. No river flooding expected at this


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   96  76  96  72  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
Panama City   89  78  90  77  93 /  20  20  30  20  20
Dothan        96  74  95  72  94 /  40  40  20  20  10
Albany        96  74  94  73  94 /  40  40  10  10  10
Valdosta      97  75  96  72  97 /  10  30  20  10  20
Cross City    93  75  94  74  97 /   0  10  30  10  20
Apalachicola  89  78  91  76  92 /  10  10  30  20  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.



SHORT TERM...DiCatarina
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
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