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000
FXUS62 KTAE 022306
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
706 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Mid to upper level ridging prevails near the MS Valley with the
region along the southern periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic. This will promote deep layer
northeasterly flow within a moderate easterly pressure gradient
through Tuesday, with a similar atmospheric setup leading to a
near persistence forecast. The main change on Tuesday will be
a tendency for dew points to decrease lower than today from
the late morning into the evening hours, especially northwest
of the FL Big Bend, thanks to a slightly drier boundary layer.
In fact, dew points are forecast to bottom out around 50F to
the northwest of an ABY-DHN-DFK line. Model soundings also
indicate a similar low-level thermal profile, so highs again
will be in the mid-80s across much of the region. With winds
around 15 kts within the mixed-layer, gusts of 15 to 20 mph
can be expected again out of the East-Northeast. While the
rip current risk is expected to decrease in Walton County on
Tuesday morning, a high risk of rip currents is expected to
continue for the Franklin and Gulf County South facing beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Persistent ridging over the area will continue
through the short term period as a large longwave trough slowly
traverses over the western US. At the surface, high pressure will
also remain in place through the period with east-northeast winds at
the surface. The tranquil pattern will also continue with no PoP`s
in the forecast inland and over our waters. Maximum temperatures
will reach the upper 80s areawide with overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s, perhaps dropping into the upper 50s in our northernmost AL
and GA counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The upper ridge will gradually erode Thursday through
Thursday evening as the aforementioned upper trough slowly traverses
toward the eastern US. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will
move in from the NW through Saturday, though weak moisture return
and lack of forcing will suppress storms from forming ahead. Post
frontal, high temperatures areawide will likely drop to the 70s with
dewpoints dropping into the low 50s, possibly dropping into the 40s
which would result in quite a pleasant weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals throughout the
forecast period. Main concern is gusty winds up to 20kts
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Moderate daytime and strong evening breezes will continue
through Thursday as a large surface high pressure remains seated
over the forecast area with a tight pressure gradient keeping winds
elevated. Additionally, seas will remain elevated with heights
ranging from 5-6ft west of the Ochlocknee River. A small craft
advisory remains in effect for our waters through Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will gradually become gentle as the pressure gradient broadens
Thursday and Friday. For the aforementioned period, winds will
remain N-NE before a gradual shift to more northerly and
occasionally NW`erly as a weak front will pass through the area
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

A dry pattern remains in place through much of the week. In
particular, Relative Humidity will be lowest again on Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons, when values are forecast to range from
the mid-20s to mid-30s, especially in Southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. This is the area of greatest concern, as it
coincides with the most pronounced drought conditions. Also,
east-northeast wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are likely both days
from the late morning into the evening, along with elevated
dispersions. Fire weather concerns are likely to persist much
of the week, although winds are expected to decrease and the
Relative Humidity values will increase by Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

There are no hydro concerns at this time with minimal
rainfall expected over the next seven days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   65  87  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        59  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    65  87  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  83  69  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ108.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Oliver/Purdy
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster