Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 121452
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1052 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.UPDATE...

Quiet conditions continue through the remainder of the afternoon.
No changes were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [613 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak frontal boundary bisecting our area north and south will exit
stage right this morning with drier air filtering in on light
northwest flow. High pressure will slide through the Mississippi
delta southeastward to the northeast Gulf coast through the day
today into tonight. Aloft, weak ridging will take hold as the upper
trough moves off the Atlantic coast and an upstream trough moves
into western Texas. No rainfall is expected in the near term with
highs today reaching the low to mid 80s and lows tonight falling
into the mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels, a weak ridge will be over the region Tuesday
and Tuesday night. A weak trough will be over the region on
Wednesday as a deep trough moves through the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure will be over the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon and
evening with POPs of 20 to 50 percent. The highest chance will be in
the western half of the region. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected due to weak upper level support and weak instability near
the surface. With mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, highs will be warm
in the mid to upper 80s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Lows will be near 60.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels, weak troughing or nearly zonal flow will be
over the region. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will move
through the region on Thursday. High pressure will be over the
region through Friday. This weekend a boundary may linger near the
Gulf Coast bringing a 20 to 40 percent chance for rain. Highs will
be in the low to mid 70s. Lows will be in the 50s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

Despite a frontal passage overnight, calm winds and remaining low
level moisture has led to patchy fog development east of the Flint
and Apalachicola rivers including TLH and VLD. Both of these
terminals are reporting LIFR to VLIFR and these conditions will
continue through 13Z, at which time a quick improvement to VFR
should occur by 14Z. Further west, terminals will remain VFR.


.MARINE...

Light northerly winds will become southerly on Tuesday. A cold front
will move through Thursday and winds will be northerly through the
weekend. The best chance for rain will be Wednesday through Thursday
and this weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Cold front will move east and out of the area this morning leaving
behind dry conditions today and Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity
values will drop to the 25-35 percent range both afternoons. Low
dispersions will be located along the coast inland into the western
Florida panhandle and portions of southeast Alabama.


.HYDROLOGY...

Some local rivers are rising from this past weekends rainfall. All
local rivers are forecast to remain below flood stage. The next
chance for rain is Wednesday into Thursday. Another system will
likely bring rain this weekend. Forecast rainfall totals for the
next seven days are 1 to 2.5 inches.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  55  88  60  82 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   81  58  81  63  77 /   0   0  10  10  40
Dothan        83  55  86  60  79 /   0   0   0  10  40
Albany        84  55  88  60  83 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      83  56  88  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    84  55  88  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  77  59  78  63  76 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dobbs
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McD


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