Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 191848
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging is building over the southeast today as a trough
pushes further eastward into the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorm coverage along and ahead of the seabreeze
front this afternoon are expected to dissipated within a few hours
of sunset. Temperatures have already hit 90 across most of the area
and may continue to warm for another hour or two before beginning
to cool. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

At the start of the short term period, deep layer ridging will be
in place across the Tennessee Valley. Through Thursday, this ridge
will shift toward the Mid Atlantic Coast moving our winds to a
more east to east southeast direction. With overall moisture
levels lower than normal, the best rain chances will be confined
to areas of increased convergence along the afternoon sea breeze
zones. With southeasterly flow expected across the Florida
Panhandle on Thursday afternoon, should see best coverage there
with PoPs in the 40 percent range. With the large ridge
suppressing convection inland, expect it to be another hot day
with highs in the low to mid 90s.

By Friday, the ridge moves more into the Western Atlantic and a
weak disturbance will move across the Florida Peninsula. Even
though the ridge will be a little further away than on Thursday,
slightly below normal moisture will limit the overall coverage of
showers and storms. As such, rain chances are only in the 20-30
percent range for Friday. High temperatures are expected to remain
above normal in the low 90s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A high pressure system will remain in place over the eastern
seaboard for most of the long-term period. Enhanced atmospheric
subsidence by this ridge will maintain PoPs relatively low in the 20
to 40 percent range. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a cold front
nearing our area by late next week. However, timing and intensity
of the front is very uncertain given the large forecast lead
time. Max temps will be in the high 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Isolated small storms are beginning to pop up across the tri-state
area. These storms may briefly affect some of our local terminals
(with the lowest chances near ABY), but prevailing conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the period. Light northerly winds
will calm overnight and become more easterly.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds are expected across the marine area through Thursday.
By Thursday night as high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic,
nightly increases in easterly flow will result in winds near 15
knots at times before decreasing during the day. This pattern
should hold through Saturday, when the high pressure area weakens
and the winds shift to a southeasterly direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for
the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall over the next few days is expected to be fairly light. As
a result there are no flood concerns through the next few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  95  73  92  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
Panama City   75  91  75  90  73 /  10  30  10  30  10
Dothan        73  94  72  90  70 /   0  20  10  20  10
Albany        73  95  72  92  71 /   0  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      73  95  71  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  95  72  93  71 /  20  30  20  10  10
Apalachicola  76  90  76  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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