Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261544
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1144 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.UPDATE...

No major changes have been made to the forecast. Dew points were
decreased slightly to account for some dryer conditions in the
Northeastern portions of the area. Likewise, rain chances were
increased slightly to account for current precipitation over
coastal waters.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [657 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity today will be focused
offshore, south and west of Apalachicola, as a surge of relatively
drier air will be coming in from the NE. This relatively drier air
will extinguish the CAPE over land, leading to the development of
mostly fair weather Cu this afternoon, but a brief shower or two
can`t be ruled out. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with
daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Upper level troughing over the Great Lakes will slowly flatten
high pressure over the south. High temperatures on Monday should
be in the low to mid 90s under partly sunny skies. There could be
a few showers and thunderstorms that pop-up, especially for areas
west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Precip chances will wind
down after sunset as we lose daytime heating, leaving us with
clearing skies and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. On
Tuesday, precip chances increase as the trough sags further into
the south. A front will slowly approach the region, which will
increase PoPs on Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the low 90s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The frontal system will slowly undergo frontolysis, while
interacting with onshore flow and various sea breezes through
midweek. This will keep PoP increased values elevated through
Thursday. Upper level flow takes on a more ridge like structure,
though it does flatten a bit late week and into the weekend. Wind
flow takes on a east-southeast component, which supports a
slightly drier airmass though showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day. Highs for the period will range from the upper
90s to low 90s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF
period, some MVFR vsbys may be possible near the end of the TAF
period in and around DHN.


.MARINE...

The forecast is on track as gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds prevail, leading to seas of 1 to 3 feet at times. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day, which could lead to
brief periods of elevated winds and seas. Otherwise, tranquil
boating conditions are expected.


.FIRE WEATHER...

The axis of greatest moisture and subsequent rain chances shifts
to the coast/offshore, particularly on the Panhandle side today.
Meanwhile, high dispersions are forecast mainly north of I-10 and
along inland portions of the FL Big Bend. East winds prevail
outside of the seabreeze and near any storms.


.HYDROLOGY...

The best precip chances slide to the coastal areas, Gulf, and
perhaps the western FL Panhandle today leaving the rest of the
service area relatively dry. Tomorrow, we may see the best chances
for showers and storms looks to be west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers. Flooding is not expected with this, but
should storms remain stationary we could see minor and poor
drainage flooding.

For the rest of the week, precip chances increase. Rainfall
amounts vary, but the amounts of 1 to 2 inches still looks
reasonable especially towards the end of the work week. River
flooding isn`t expected, but there could be urban and/or poor
drainage flooding.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  71  94  74  92 /  10   0  10  10  50
Panama City   90  75  92  76  90 /  20  10  10  10  40
Dothan        91  71  92  72  92 /  10   0  20  10  60
Albany        95  72  96  74  94 /  10   0  20  10  60
Valdosta      92  69  93  72  94 /  10   0  10  10  50
Cross City    94  70  93  73  93 /  30  10  20  20  50
Apalachicola  88  76  88  77  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Darish
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR


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