Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
234 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Surface ridging emanating from surface high pressure over the Ohio
Valley will advect drier air on northeasterly winds overnight into
Wednesday. Clear skies and light winds, in conjunction with the
drier air, will allow temperatures to fall fairly quickly after
sunset on the way to mid 20s for lows by Wednesday morning. There
will be a consistent 4-6 mph wind overnight, coupled with the
cooler side of lows in the eastern third of the CWA, issued a
wind chill advisory overnight along and east from Albany, GA to
Cross City, FL for wind chills below 20 degrees.

Surface high pressure will move towards the northeast states
Wednesday and the surface ridging will begin to lose its hold as a
low pressure system takes shape over the Plains states. The airmass
will moderate some under sunny skies and highs in the low to mid
50s, some 6 to 8 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Towards the late
afternoon, high clouds will begin to filter in the western counties
as the Plains weather system moves eastward.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday night Through Thursday night]...

A warming trend will continue during the short term ahead of the
next cold front. High temps will reach the mid 50s and low 60s on
Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The lows on Thursday morning
are expected to stay above freezing.

Rain chances will increase from west to east on Thursday night into
Friday as the next system approaches. Instability looks limited to
coastal areas due to insufficient time for the current cold airmass
to modify. As a result, thunderstorm chances appear limited to near
the coast and offshore.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The cold front will quickly exit the area from west to east during
the day on Friday. Cool and dry conditions are expected to return by
Saturday morning. Dry conditions expected to persist through the end
of the rest of the forecast period.



[Through 18z Wednesday] VFR for this TAF period. Added gusts this
afternoon based on morning observations which will decrease
towards sunset.



An increase in northerly winds is expected tonight with advisory
conditions across the entire area. Winds and seas are expected to
drop below advisory levels on Wednesday morning with moderate winds
and seas expected for the remainder of the week.



Although a dry airmass will remain in place through Wednesday, red
flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.



Dry weather is expected to prevail until the end of the week. In
general, rainfall amounts on Thursday night into Friday are
expected to remain below 1 inch. The Apalachicola River at
Blountstown is expected to remain in minor flood stage through the
remainder of the week due to upstream dam releases.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   26  56  37  63  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
Panama City   30  55  42  64  57 /   0   0   0  20  90
Dothan        26  52  37  58  51 /   0   0   0  20  90
Albany        25  52  36  58  49 /   0   0   0  10  70
Valdosta      26  54  37  61  52 /   0   0   0  10  50
Cross City    24  57  40  67  55 /   0   0   0  10  30
Apalachicola  31  54  43  62  59 /   0   0   0  10  80


FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday
     for Coastal Gulf.

GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Baker-
     Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10
     AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
     Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Scholl
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