Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Quiet conditions expected for the near term period. Biggest weather
highlight through tomorrow will be areas of fog that will develop
tonight. An upper level ridge moving over the region combined with
light winds, mostly clear skies in the upper levels, and plenty of
low level moisture is a ideal setup for fog across the region. Low
temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid 60s with cooler
conditions across AL and warmer conditions across the Big Bend.

No rain is expected tomorrow, but as additional low level moisture
moves in from the southeast, can`t rule out a light shower in
northeastern parts of the forecast area in southern GA.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

As an upper-level ridge remains just offshore from the Florida
Atlantic Coastline, we should continue to see suppressed convection
for the majority of our CWA in the short term. However, towards to
later part of the short term period we may begin to see
precipitation chances gradually increasing depending on Tropical
Storm Zeta`s track with the greatest chances being offshore. Since
our region will be on the eastern side of Zeta, we can expect a
plume of moisture being advected into the region, hence the
increasing PoPs. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s and lows to be in
the mid to high 60s for most of the region, areas near the Gulf
Coast will be hovering around 70.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

There is a great deal of uncertainty associated with the track of
Tropical Storm Zeta, current model guidance has Zeta making
landfall around southeastern Louisiana. With the ridge positioned
over the western Atlantic and an approaching trough crossing
through the central plains, large-scale steering currents should
have Zeta increasing in forward speed as it crosses through the
Gulf of Mexico. This should prevent Zeta from producing prolonged
impacts as it rushes past the Gulf Coast. Cooler waters near the
coast, along with upper-level shear should help weaken/prevent
further strengthening as it approaches the US. Although our region
isn`t currently near the center of the forecast track, we will
still experience peripheral impacts via banding. The greatest
chance for precip currently resides between Wednesday and
Thursday. After Zeta gets absorbed by the trough and the
associated frontal system moves through the area Thursday night,
we should expect drier and cooler weather through the end of the


[Through 18Z Monday]

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions being observed at this hour with most
VFR sites along and near the coast, but stratus is hanging on across
SE alabama terminals and the western Panhandle. A brief improvement
to VFR is likely at most sites today and then deteriorating cigs and
vis will likely bring widespread IFR/LIFR restrictions after 09z.
VLIFR conditions can`t be ruled out by sunrise Monday.



Relatively light winds and low seas are forecast through Monday.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Tuesday as winds increase
and swell from Zeta starts to reach our offshore waters. The worst
marine conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night as Zeta moves towards the northern Gulf coast. Across our
waters west of Cape San Blas, tropical storm conditions are
possible from Wednesday into early Thursday. Cautionary conditions
may prevail through the end of the week until a frontal boundary
clears the northeast Gulf in the wake of Zeta.



Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.



As we approach mid-week rain chances increase once Zeta gets
absorbed into a frontal system and moves through the Southeast. Due
to the expected progressive nature of the system, average rain
amounts are currently forecast to be around 1-3" and focused
primarily west of the Flint/Apalachicola basins. These amounts are
not forecast to bring with them a widespread river or flash flooding
concern. However, the eventual track and intensity of Zeta could
alter this outlook as we draw nearer to the event.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   67  86  71  85  72 /   0   0   0  40  20
Panama City   67  85  71  83  73 /   0   0   0  50  30
Dothan        63  81  66  81  69 /   0   0   0  40  30
Albany        65  81  66  82  70 /   0   0   0  30  20
Valdosta      66  85  68  84  70 /   0   0   0  40  20
Cross City    68  87  71  88  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Apalachicola  68  83  73  82  74 /   0   0  10  40  30




LONG TERM...Oliver
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