Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 312338
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
738 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

The line of storms from this afternoon is exiting our area this
evening w/an associated cold front draped over FL Big Bend and south-
central GA. Winds ahead & along the front are west-to-southwest, and
out of the northwest behind. A deck of clouds are also filtering in
behind the front. Therefore, a gradual sky clearing from west to
east is forecast for all terminals in the 12-15z timeframe. VFR
conds prevail this TAF cycle w/the breezy winds being the main story
(DHN may see LLWS of 35 kts at 2000 ft around 12z).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [359 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A positively tilted short wave trough axis extended from Indiana to
Mississippi at 19Z. Associated surface low pressure was moving east
across central GA with a warm front extending eastward from it to
extreme southern South Carolina. A cold front trails across our
forecast area and into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Earlier
dominant pre-frontal squall line has merged with previously
discrete cells and extended from the Valdosta area southwest
across the Florida Big Bend. The cold pool has undercut most of
this convection which has primarily remained sub-severe over the
past hour. Convective trends and the speed of the line would
likely warrant an early cancellation of the most recently issued
tornado watch. However, the severe threat will persist for a
couple of more hours along and ahead of this line.

In addition to the severe threat, the strong onshore flow warrants a
high risk for rip currents, although there shouldn`t be anyone in
the water with all beaches closed.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Thursday night]...

High pressure will bring a cooler air mass to the region with highs
only in the upper 60s north of a Valdosta to Dothan line to mid 70s
near the coast. This will be the first cooler than normal afternoon
since the 8th of March! Temperatures will moderate as high pressure
moves east and will be near seasonal levels Thursday and Thursday
night.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Temperatures will be back above normal by Friday and Saturday. A
weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will return rain chances to
the area for Saturday night and Sunday. Return flow will become more
well established early in the work week with scattered showers
expected.


.MARINE...

Advisory level onshore winds will shift to offshore after a cold
frontal passage this evening. Winds and seas will then drop below
headline criteria by midday Friday as high pressure builds over the
region. Winds will become light for a couple of days before
increasing from east this weekend as rain chances return.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon and through the
evening. Behind the front, noticeably cooler and drier air will
arrive. Strong transport winds and deep mixing heights will result
in high dispersion indices once again tomorrow.


.HYDROLOGY...

This system has been fairly progressive with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of
rain falling through 20 UTC and only another half inch or so
expected. Therefore, there are no flooding concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   48  73  47  79  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  73  53  75  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        46  69  46  74  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        47  69  46  74  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  70  46  77  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  74  48  79  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  72  54  72  59 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Wool


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