Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201940
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
340 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered well to the north of the local area
will slide east overnight. The resulting easterly flow will continue
to advect abundant moisture in from the Atlantic. Clouds will be on
the increase at least for the easternmost zones, however, rain is
not expected. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Upper low currently across the desert southwest will progress
eastward through the period and be positioned across N MS/AL by
Monday morning. This feature will support the development of a low
pressure system across the southern Plains and cold front which
will move east as well and reach the western FL panhandle by
daybreak Monday. Showers and storms will develop Saturday night
out west then in mass Sunday into Sunday night. Given the amount
of shear (not great cape) there is a risk for severe weather
across SE AL and the FL panhandle where damaging winds will be the
main threat. SPC has outlooked the aforementioned area in a
marginal risk for severe weather. Rainfall amounts will be on the
order of 2-3 inches across SE AL and SW GA down to 1-2 inches
across the FL counties.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

As the prior mentioned system begins to exit the region, moisture
wrapping behind the low will maintain a chance of rain in our
northern areas through Tuesday night. After that, PoPs will remain
low until the next system approaches on Friday. Current model
guidance for this system has some disagreement, so PoPs are limited
to chance to reflect the lower confidence at this time. Highs
throughout the period will stay in the upper 70s, with lows cooling
from the lower 60s to the 50s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Easterly winds will increase on Saturday which will in turn increase
low level cloudiness as moisture advects in from the Atlantic. MOS
guidance shows MVFR cigs developing and spreading from east to west
overnight or around daybreak Saturday. No rain is expected through
the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft advisories are in effect. East winds will continue to
increase to around 20 knots tonight through Sunday afternoon.
Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet as a result. Showers and
thunderstorms will become likely beginning Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated throughout the next few
days as moisture increases across our area and minimum RH thresholds
will not be met. High dispersion thresholds may be briefly
approached for an hour or two tomorrow across parts of northern
Florida, but are not likely to be exceeded for an extended period of
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1-3 inches of precipitation will be common across the Tri-State
region with the next storm system Saturday night through Monday.
Isolated higher amounts could be possible across SE AL and SW GA
but no widespread flooding is anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  78  61  77  63 /   0  10  40  60  80
Panama City   59  75  64  75  65 /   0  20  40  50  70
Dothan        53  76  60  75  62 /   0  10  40  90  90
Albany        52  75  59  74  61 /   0   0  40  80  90
Valdosta      53  75  58  76  62 /   0  10  40  70  70
Cross City    57  78  63  80  65 /   0  20  30  60  50
Apalachicola  59  75  66  75  67 /   0  10  30  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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