Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 121517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Cool northeasterly flow continues at the lowest levels with high
pressure still in control along the eastern seaboard. Temperatures
are holding rather steady in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Isentropic
lift is beginning to increase across the western portion of the
area as southwesterly flow above the boundary layer increases
ahead of the approaching trough. Expect the rain to increase in
areal coverage through afternoon with possibly a few elevated
thunderstorms over the Gulf. No significant changes were needed to
the forecast this morning.



.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Surface low pressure will take shape over the northern Gulf of
Mexico overnight tonight ahead of a progressive upper trough. As
the low pressure develops, isentropic lift will increase with rain
chances increasing overnight into Friday. A warm front will lift
northward Friday ahead of the low track which will move northeast
through the area Friday afternoon and evening. Instability will
increase along and south of the front, and coupled with adequate
shear, could lead to strong to isolated severe thunderstorm
development. SPC has outlooked the eastern third of the CWA in a
marginal risk, citing isolated damaging wind gusts with organized
storms and perhaps an isolated tornado. The severe threat, as well
as precipitation, will decrease from west to east overnight Friday
night into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The latter half of the weekend will be dry with seasonal
temperatures as the southeast US will reside between frontal
systems. The next front arrives Monday night and Tuesday with
another round of rainfall. Cooler temperatures will move in behind
the front with highs Wednesday in the low to mid 50s.

[Through 12Z Friday]

Cigs will lower from VFR to MVFR 14-18Z as RA overspreads the
TAF sites. High enough confidence in thunder to include VCTS at
ABY and DHN 17-05Z. Cigs lower to IFR after 00Z all sites, as
RA ends at TLH and VLD, where confidence is highest in LIFR
cigs/vsbys late tonight. Northeast winds will maintain around
10 to 15 knots through the TAF period.


Strong northeasterly winds will continue today as strong high
pressure remains in place along the eastern seaboard. Conditions
should improve by Friday into Saturday as weak low pressure
develops over the Gulf and the gradient weakens. A Small Craft
Advisory will remain in place into today into tonight. Increasing
onshore flow will return by late in the weekend ahead of the next
cold front.


A wet pattern will remain in place through the first half of the
weekend. Low dispersions are likely to persist today around and
south of the I-10 corridor. Low dispersions are likely on Friday
across the area. Otherwise, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected.


A wet pattern is in store for the Tri-State region through
Saturday. Generally, 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected. The area
remains in drought conditions and this rainfall will be beneficial
and not cause any flooding or river flooding concerns.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   62  51  68  54  70 /  40  70  80  50  20
Panama City   61  52  69  56  68 /  50  80  80  50  20
Dothan        54  46  61  51  65 /  60  80  70  50  20
Albany        55  47  61  52  65 /  60  80  80  60  20
Valdosta      62  52  66  55  68 /  40  70  80  60  20
Cross City    71  58  72  58  73 /  20  50  70  60  30
Apalachicola  63  56  69  57  68 /  40  70  80  60  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST this evening for Coastal

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.



LONG TERM...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.