Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 152040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
340 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Winter storm moving through the area through Friday night will
bring a variety of weather to the area, including rain,
thunderstorms, freezing rain, sleet and snow.

Low pressure across eastern Colorado will move due east across
Kansas then east of the area by daybreak Saturday. Moisture will
dramatically increase through the night with showers developing
06-12z, and could even be a few rumbles of thunder across the
southern half of the forecast area as weak instability moves in.
The bulk of the precipitation will be rain with surface
temperatures above freezing, however, areas along the NE/SD border
could cool to around freezing during the same time, thus
precipitation may begin there as a mix of rain and freezing rain.
Precipitation there may eventually become moderate to heavy
through the morning, and could begin to mix with cold air begins
mix in, but surface temperatures remain locked right around

There is some concern for a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon in
southeast NE, but the better convective threat with stronger
storms appears to be setting up just to our south across eastern
KS and western MO.

Precipitation chances continue Friday evening, with more of a
wintry mix spreading southward toward I80 as surface temperatures
cool to near freezing by late evening and early into Saturday
morning, but by then, precip rates are dramatically increasing.
Should remain all rain south of I80.

We do have around one quarter inch of ice accumulation in Knox and
Cedar Counties, and around a tenth of an inch in a buffer one tier
of counties southward from Antelope to Thurston counties. Further
south toward I80, there might be a hundredth of an inch of ice,
but generally shouldn`t affect travel too much. Important to note
that the Nam was a little bit colder, and would result in much
more ice accumulation, but it seemed too cold given the amount of
latent heat that will released from the moderate to heavy

Saturday into Saturday night will dry as ridging aloft redevelops
across the central CONUS. Shower chance increase again by Sunday
afternoon as the next closed low moves out of the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Rain chances dramatically increase Sunday night into Monday.
Again, this could be mixed with snow further north near the NE/SD
border, and then could end as a rain/snow mix Monday night into
early Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday should be dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

VFR conditions for the first 12 hours of the TAF period with
occasional wind gusts up to 25 kts from the east. After 06Z expect
bands of scattered showers and embedded TS to impact all TAF
sites. Currently expect temperatures to be warmer than freezing at
all sites with rain the primary precip type. Winds at 1500-2000 ft
AGL from the east at 50-55 kts are expected with LLWS added at OFK
where strongest shear is likely. Sfc winds increase after 12Z with
cig/vis conditions worsening to MVFR, and small potential for IFR
after 15Z.


NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday
     for NEZ015>018.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for



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