Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251142
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
642 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Radar data as of 0745z revealed a band of light rain showers from
northwest IA into north-central NE within the deformation zone of
a mid-level vorticity lobe situated over south-central NE. IR
satellite indicates cooling cloud tops over southeast NE and it
appears that a new deformation band will form across our southern
CWA within the next few hours has the parent mid-level system
continue south into central KS. As such, we will focus the highest
PoPs there this morning and indicate a gradual decrease in rain
chances elsewhere. Clouds will decrease from north to south with
high temperatures ranging from lower 60s over northeast NE and
west-central IA to lower to mid 50s near the KS border.

On Thursday, another short-wave trough will advance southeast
through the region in tandem with a surface cold front. Moisture
will remain quite limited with this system and the prospects for
measurable precipitation appear low. Winds will become gusty from
the northwest behind the front by afternoon, potentially leading
to high to very high fire danger. Afternoon temperatures should
top out in the 60s.

By Friday, mid-level heights will rise slightly with westerly/
northwesterly low-level winds supporting warmer temperatures; in
the upper 60s to around 70. Fire weather concerns could arise
again given the ambient dry air mass expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A prominent mid-level ridge along the spine of the Rockies Friday
night will shift east into the Plains this weekend ahead of a
strong upper low advancing from the far eastern Pacific to
Interior West. In response, a lee trough will deepen over the High
Plains in the wake of a surface high departing to our east.
Strengthening southerly winds will begin to draw a warmer and more
moist air mass north through the mid MO Valley, especially on
Sunday when breezy to windy conditions are expected.

Early next week, we continue to see considerable differences in
the evolution of the upper-air pattern; namely the handling of an
upper low which will move from the Interior West into north-
central CONUS. Despite the differences aloft, it does appear that
a surface front will slowly edge east/southeast Monday night into
Tuesday, yielding an increasing chance of thunderstorms. Severe
weather potential remains uncertain at this juncture, though it
does appear a threat will exist at some point early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mostly VFR ceilings although some patchy mvfr ceilings could
temporarily occur with the light rain and drizzle. The light rain
and drizzle will be mentioned early this morning with ceilings
fl035-060 at all three sites. Rain ending at KOFK early in the TAF
period then KOMA/KLNK by 18Z. Ceilings will improve to fl080-100
before clearing later today. North winds 7 to 15kts this morning
decreasing to variable this afternoon then becoming light
southwest under 10kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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